Quote:
Originally Posted by Diabo_Sam
Assume Chalsea win their last 2 matches after our clash, this is the probability of us winning the league:
1= Champions
0= bollox
So if we win tomorrow it's 74%, draw it's 56% and if we lose then it's 41%
and yeah I have no life these days apart from thinking about this. |
You have assumed all 27 outcomes are equally likely, which they are not. This is football, not rolling dice. You'd have to assign the probabilities subjectively, which takes you into the realm of Bayesian Statistics.