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The Role of the U.S.
The United States should do two main things in dealing with China: First, seek full engagement, especially with China's private sector. Second, seek to preserve an equilibrium in East Asia that discourages Beijing from expansionism. No contradiction exists between these two policies.
Opposing authoritarianism on principle and yet engaging with an emerging China is a contradiction we can and should live with. China's rise is to be welcomed in many ways. It is a market for our products. It is culturally enriching for China and America to interact. What is more, if China did break up into pieces, it would benefit Russia and Japan, not the United States. What would not be good for us is a China that keeps on rising but remains a dictatorship with unending territorial claims—including parts of Siberia and many southern islands stretching to Indonesia—makes a vassal out of Burma, threatens Tibet, represses religion, arrests people for what they write on the Internet and locks up pro-democracy leaders. This kind of China, if it still exists in 20 years, would not be stable or a friend to the United States. We do want an accommodating relationship with China, if we can have it. But because of the political nature of China, tomorrow is unknown. We have to engage fully but keep ourselves and our allies strong. The United States should not allow China to become the number one power in the world, and indeed, President Bush has welcomed Japan's new assertiveness and held out a hand to India precisely in order to signal that stance.
Alas, some people are so hostile to President Bush—and to America—that they hope China will become the world's leading power. Many think we have become unworthy of the role. Of course, this has been said before. It was said after our withdrawal from Vietnam. But within five years we elected Ronald Reagan, who didn't think we were unworthy at all. It was predicted in the 1980s when Japan was supposed to become the world's leading economy. Paul Kennedy, in his much-acclaimed book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, said we were suffering from "imperial overstretch" and predicted we would decline. Well, what fell down was not the United States but the Soviet Union, and there is no comparison between America's economy today and Japan's. Some said the collapse of the Soviet Union would end any American need for global strength. But this never happened, and there is no sign that it will.
Of course, China would fill the vacuum if the U.S. ever left East Asia. But otherwise, China's rise will be limited. The Chinese leaders—who are not reckless people—can count the numbers. They observed the Gulf War and saw our military technology. I think they are aware of the large gap between American power and their own. However, I do worry at times that authoritarian China has an advantage over the U.S. It can take the long view, hiding its aims; it can pull the strings of Chinese public opinion; it can set the agenda of international organizations with an eye to weakening the U.S., while doing nothing itself to implement the resulting policies. It has access to an open American society that far outstrips our access to Chinese society.
But, in the final analysis, no dictatorship is strong if the U.S. retains the will to stand against it, as we did against the Soviet Union. The average lifespan of the Leninist regimes in Europe was 27 years. The Chinese communist regime is 57 years old, 17 years short of the lifespan of the Soviet Union. We should talk back to the Chinese when they question our open society, and openly criticize Chinese repression. Above all, we should continue to be a beacon for freedom, with dignity and patience, but also with tenacity and with no apologies.
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sorry for so long article, but some interesting points there
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