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Obama won't win against Mccain. At the last moment people will balk at voting for him. All this talk of change is just talk. At the end of the day most people will realise they don't actually want change, atleast they don't want to risk stability for change. Unlike other countries there are no regular terror threats in US. Mccain would seem the safe choice. They will know what they are getting. Obama is out there, he will get the hippy votes and independents will root for him all the way to the election but stop short at voting for him at the last moment.
Hillary would have won easily against Mccain.
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