Note: For those statistically brained folks out there, these are the stats that I used in this piece.
Games Started, Games used as a Sub, Goals, Assists, Shots, and Shots on Goal. Goal per cent is defined as the number of goals divided by the number of shots on goal times 100%. Shot Accuracy is defined at the number of shots on goal, divided by the number of shots times 100%.
Also, I am only using statistics for the Premier League. I am excluding all Cup competitions, friendlies, and Internationals. The statistics are up to and including May 4, 2010.
Preface
The majority of us want Berbatov gone because he isn’t scoring goals that we feel a 30 million pound striker should score. Well, some of his misses are quite amazing so we could generalize that even further and say that he isn’t scoring goals that we feel we could score.
Just to set the record straight, when I perform a comparison with Berbatov, I am omitting Rooney from the analysis. I consider Berbatov to be a support striker to Rooney and am comparing him with the other members of the supporting cast, this season Michael Owen, and last season Carlos Tevez.
Now, to get everyone angry at me I’m going to make an audacious statement: Berbatov is not playing badly. He is doing exactly what he did at Tottenham, and exactly what the statistics say he can do. The statistics tell the real story.
Berbatov vs. Berbatov
Before I drag in other players, we have to understand Berbatov’s overall performance in the Premier League.
The only story with regard to Berbatov’s appearance record is that the 2009/2010 season has seen him start less than in any other season in the Premier League.
Since it is the cornerstone of the argument, lets talk about goals. With Tottenham, he scored 12 goals in his first season, 15 in his second season and gained 11 assists each season. With United he bagged nine goals in his first season and 12 in his second. At first glance these numbers are fairly consistent. He is still scoring as much as he ever did, so what’s the problem?
The first problem is assists: He has nine assists in his first season with United, which is respectable given his history at Tottenham, but only four assists this season. For a player who relies on his first touch and finesse with the ball he seems to have stopped giving passes that lead to goals.
I don’t have a statistic for who scored on each of Berbatov’s assists. If it was Ronaldo, perhaps that explains the assists drought.
Fac(h)t number one. Berbatov has assisted less this season.
That is hardly a deal breaking statistic though. We’re only missing five assists from last season so the problem must be somewhere else.
If you don’t shoot, you don’t score
We have established that Berbatov has consistently kept up his scoring record.
The record, however, is meaningless if he requires a million shots to get those dozen or so goals each season. In his first two seasons with Tottenham he had 81 and 98 shots respectively, with 48 and 58 hitting the target. Of those 48 shots on goal he had 12 goals In his second season he had 15 goals from 58 shots.
This corresponds to a goal percentage of 25 per cent in both seasons.
That is incredibly consistent. He had a shot accuracy of 59 per cent in his first season and 59 per cent in his second season.
I’m not making this up.
He was that consistent.
These numbers are what (I hope) persuaded Manchester United to fork over 30 million pounds for him in the summer of 2008.
His first season at United saw him score nine goals. He had 56 shots with 24 on target. Nine goals from 24 shots on target make a goal percentage of 37 per cent. That is over 10 per cent higher than at Tottenham.
This season he has 12 goals from 34 shots on target; a goal percentage of 35 per cent. Once again, he is proving to be consistent.
So what is the damning statistic? It’s one I didn’t expect: Shot Accuracy.
With Tottenham he was remarkably consistent over two seasons. In 2008/2009 at United he had a 43 per cent shot accuracy. With one game to go in 2009/2010 he has a 37 per cent shot accuracy. Obviously, a vast majority of his shots are going wide, or over the bar, or both. This will kill anyone’s confidence.
Perhaps the heckling United supporters aren’t helping. We are quite demanding and players are expected to perform regardless of their surroundings. I know many people will say something about his pay packet and how he should perform as a result. Well, to them I have this to say: Money doesn’t buy happiness, nor does it buy confidence. He is only human after all.
Berbatov vs The Others
Round 1: Berbatov vs Owen
This is going to be short and sweet since Owen hasn’t featured much this season. Sadly for Michael, he has only made five starts and 14 substitute appearances. He has three goals and no assists. This season, Owen managed 20 shots and put eight on goal, with three resulting in goals. This gives him a goal percentage of 38 per cent and a shot accuracy of 40 per cent. Although his numbers are comparable to Berbatov’s, the small number of appearances and consequently shooting opportunities limits ones’ ability to find a meaningful comparison. Interestingly though, despite the small numbers, the goal percentages and shot accuracy are fairly similar to Berbatov.
Goal Percentage: Berbatov 35 per cent vs. Owen 38 per cent
Shot Accuracy: Berbatov 37 per cent vs. Owen 40 per cent
Round 2: Berbatov vs Tevez. The Final Fight.
Right, so who performed better last season?
Tevez only had 18 starts last season, and made 11 substitute appearances. Despite the difference in starts, both had a similar appearance record (Tevez at 29 and Berbatov at 31). Tevez only scored five goals. However he had more shots than Berbatov (66) and almost as many on target (21). Many people, including myself, wanted Berbatov gone and Tevez to stay. Tevez had a goal percentage of 24 per cent (Berbatov had 38 per cent). Tevez’s shot accuracy was 32 per cent compared to Berbatov’s 43 per cent.
Many point to the fact that Tevez would have done better had he had more starts and acquired more confidence from a presumed increase in goal output. Let’s look at Tevez’s first season at United (pre-Berbatov).
Tevez had a goal percentage of 25 per cent; 57 shots on goal, and 14 goals. That goal percentage is incredibly similar to his last season with United, so why did we all interpret him to have a good first season, and a poorer second season?
That statistic is back; shot accuracy. In Tevez’s first season he had a 62 per cent shot accuracy. In his last season that number was down by half. Something shot dear old Carlos’ confidence and his performance suffered.
This tells us something interesting about us as supporters. We view shots on goal to be an indicator of performance as opposed to number of goals, or importance of goals. I definitely thought Tevez had a better first season, and that Berbatov was better last season when, in fact, the only statistic about either player that worsened in their second season was their ability to put the ball on target.
Interestingly, Tevez has a 42 per cent goal percentage and 46 per cent shot accuracy with Manchester City. This is a marked improvement on his last year with United, but still short of his accurate days of 2008/2009 (albeit he is scoring more for City, but that is probably due to the change in position).
Berbatov in Context
My last point stems from a comment I read some time ago: Berbatov scores as much as he ever did, but his goals were never as important as the one’s Tevez scored.
In essence, this is saying that Berbatov doesn’t score important goals, others do. This is a good point, potentially. 12 goals a season sounds nice, but if they are at the end of 5-0 drubbings then they are hardly useful unless the title comes down to goal difference (which it almost has several times).
First, let us define what an Important Goal is. It is one that wins a game, gives a team a lead (go ahead goal) or equalizes. With that established, I will now compare Berbatov, Owen (again, briefly), and Tevez (last season).
2009/2010 – Berbatov and Owen
Once again, this will be short since Owen only scored three goals. Of Owen’s three goals, one is deemed important (winner vs. City). Berbatov currently sits on 12 goals and has exactly five Important Goals, and seven ‘other’ goals. He has no game winners, which is something that removes luster from his spectacle.
Every single one of his Important Goals has been the first goal of a match, and the go ahead goal in four of them, and the equalizer in one of them. Of his twelve goals, 42 per cent are important compared to Owen’s 33 per cent.
2008/2009 – Berbatov and Tevez
Of Berbatov’s nine goals, four were Important, or 44 per cent. Tevez scored five goals and three were Important, or 60 per cent.
Given how few goals were scored between them it is hard to point fingers and say who is better. Perhaps simply saying empirically that Berbatov had four Important Goals compared to Tevez’s three is sufficient.
I have noticed something interesting though.
Berbatov scored fewer Important Goals (ok, only one less) but we deemed him to be a better player last season. Perhaps it is this: three of the four goals were game winners, with one in the last minute of play. Two of those winners were the only goal to be scored in the game and were also go ahead goals (in other words, 1-0 wins).
Since Tevez does not have enough goals during his second season to really give a good comparison, I thought I’d try to compare Tevez’s first season to Berbatov’s first season. Tevez had 14 goals in his first season. Six were considered Important giving an Important Goal percentage of 43 per cent. He had four go ahead goals, two of which ended up being winners, and two equalizers. Percentage wise, Tevez and Berbatov were fairly similar in their first seasons (in terms of Important Goals).
The Deal Breaker – Who steps up in big matches
Ok, so it’s been established that Berbatov slightly out-performed Tevez in goal percentage and shot accuracy, likewise when you compare to Owen. Also, the Important Goal breakdown is slightly inconclusive, it just supports my argument that Berbatov isn’t playing badly with respect to what he’s shown in the past. The last question to address is; which of the important goals are scored in big matches?
Definition of a big match: a match against Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, or Liverpool.
Owen has one goal against Manchester City, a crucial game winner. Tevez has three over his two seasons (two in the first season, one in the second).
Berbatov has zero.
In fact, in big matches Berbatov has only one goal in his two seasons here (the third goal scored against Chelsea last season), compared with Tevez’s total of four goals. This points to a lack of confidence, as well as an inability to perform in high-pressure situations. Even Michael Owen has one “big match goal” and he only has three goals to look at.
What to do with Berbatov?
After all this painstaking analysis it points to one fact: Berbatov is lacking confidence. A number of factors could be the cause of this. I can only guess, really. If it is the environment that he is in, then he should change clubs and move to an environment better suited to him. If it is something to do with him personally, psychologically, then perhaps a sports psychologist is the answer to his woes.
Unfortunately his woes are United’s woes. Luckily enough though, he isn’t underperforming in terms of goal output and his output matches what it did for Tottenham, it’s just the process of getting there that is suffering. His shot accuracy has dropped by almost half and he is matching his goal output. One can only imagine how many he’d score if he could hit the target more readily.