Big oil find off Brazil

lynchie · 22nd April 2008, 11:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by Team Brian GB

The idea that peak oil has been reached is absolute nonsense, all estimates regarding the supply of oil into the future is based upon proven reserves of resources currently under exploitation.

Mark my words, the next huge oil fields which will give Saudi Arabia a run for her money will be Kazakhstan.

I didn't think anyone was claiming it had been... Even nutjob hippies like Paul Mobbs don't think it'll be reached for another 10 years or so.

spinoza · 22nd April 2008, 14:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by w'or bobby

The proven part is problematic - all these "proven reserves" are unaudited by independent outsider auditors and hence not proven.

The numbers could be (and probably are) exaggerated by oil companies and by the Saudis among others.
Shell took 25% off their claimed reserves a couple of years ago.

They could be underestimates also - tho' it seems a good deal less likely.

Geologists are the pessimists in this discussion and economists are the optimists for once.

Where the numbers make less sense is in terms of how much we will need - rising oil costs will make alternatives more economically feasible.

Publicly listed companies have their reserves audited. In fact that's why RDS had to write down its reserves back in 2003. Besides, it's not hard to derive an accurate estimate from widely available geological data. I'm not an expert, but I've got no problems betting money on disclosed reserve data.

w'or bobby · 22nd April 2008, 17:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by spinoza

Publicly listed companies have their reserves audited. In fact that's why RDS had to write down its reserves back in 2003. Besides, it's not hard to derive an accurate estimate from widely available geological data. I'm not an expert, but I've got no problems betting money on disclosed reserve data.

The auditing of public listed companies is one thing.

The reserves held by nation states are not independently audited - and account for the majority of claimed reserves.

There is good reason to doubt their #'s.

Geologists are the doubters, usually, economists the believers.

lynchie · 22nd April 2008, 18:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by w'or bobby

The auditing of public listed companies is one thing.

The reserves held by nation states are not independently audited - and account for the majority of claimed reserves.

There is good reason to doubt their #'s.

Geologists are the doubters, usually, economists the believers.

This is true. In the late 80s, 6 OPEC members increased their reported reserves by between 42-197%, allowing them to increase their export quotas. This despite no new discoveries. Some may see that as suspicious.