Iran war games to defend nuclear sites

mjs020294

Some of this stuff is comedic gold TBH:

"Their [Israeli] F-15 and F-16 fighters will be trapped by our air defence forces and will be annihilated," Amir Ali Hajizadeh told Iran's Fars news agency.

"Even if their planes escape and land at the bases from which they took off, their bases will be struck by our destructive surface-to-surface missiles."

BBC News - Iran war games to defend nuclear sites


Wouldn't it be easier to allow nuclear inspectors full access if the plants are for power generation?

VidaRed

Plechazunga

I don't believe the Israelis can destroy it, it's not 1981 and it wouldn't be a surprise attack. And even if they could, what's the point? They can't be stopped from having nuclear weapons forever.

But I do think they'll try, and they'll be secretly abetted by the Saudis.

mjs020294

I highly doubt the Iranians have the abilities to stop an air strike from the US or Israel. And you are spot on its not 1981 anymore: since then the US has developed weapons through tow real war and their technology is way ahead.

Plechazunga

Really? Even when they know it's coming in advance? They're not fools, they'll have seen Osirak and taken precautions, burying stuff much deeper, keeping lots of planes nearby and cramming the area with shitloads of anti-aircraft weapons.

VidaRed

Last i heard they were negotiating a deal for S-400 from the russians.

RedKaos

Interesting development, im intrigued to see how this whole things plans out.

mjs020294

There isn't a lot you can do about guided bombs being dropped from 50,000 feet or cruise missiles flying a few feet off the ground. If the US decide to neutralize the facilities the Iranians will not be able to defends them.

Plechazunga

Can't you intercept the planes? And can cruise missiles destroy something that's under metres of concrete?

The US won't do it anyway, they don't need to risk the political fallout when the Israelis are itching to do it anyway.

VidaRed

S-400 SAM will be able to destroy aircraft, cruise missiles, and short- and medium-range ballistic missiles at ranges of up to 400 kilometers. In addition to the new long-range missile, the Russians revealed that the S-400 would be armed with lightweight 9M96 missiles to counter low-flying targets.

Plechazunga

It's a foolish thing to do anyway. The Sunni Arab leaders (apart from Syria) may want it but the Street will go berserk.

And what's the point? To think they can stop a country the size of Iran from getting a bit of well-understood technology indefinitely is a fantasy. They'll have to learn to live with it like the US/UK/France and Russia live with it, like India and Pakistan live with it. The Iranians don't want to commit suicide, they just don't much like being a few hundred miles from a nuclear Israel and surrounded by the US military on two fronts.

VidaRed

The worrying thing is if it falls into the hands of the extremists.

RedKaos

Syrian leaders arent Sunni, both them and Iran have actively supported and funded Hezbollah for starters, but thats besides that point.

Great post. If I was an Iranian I would be concerned about a hostile nation only a few borders away thats armed to the teeth with nukes, and has a superpower justifying everyone of it's actions, having nukes would certainly ease those fears as Israel would then be reluctant to fire ahead. People sometimes refuse to look at both sides of the story.

VidaRed

I can't see jerusalem getting nuked. Never going to happen.

Plechazunga

Well Khamenei, his son, Ahmadinejad and much of the ruling cadre are extremists. But that doesn't mean they're insane... Ahmadinejad might be, according to Iranian friends of mine, but he has no real power in military matters. A coup in which he gained significantly more power would be a concern (though Avigdor Lieberman gaining control of the Israeli government wouldn't exactly fill me with confidence).

It's hard to know what's going to happen in Iran. The young Iranians in the dissenting movement presumably dislike the State of Israel, but there's a difference between dislike and implacable enmity, which is what it would become if Israel attacked. Those kids sympathise with the Palestinians, no doubt, but they also know when the conflict's being used as propaganda to distract them from their own government's abuses... this was clear recently when they were meant to chant "Death to Israel", and thousands chanted "Death to the Regime" instead, even "Death to Khamenei" was heard. These people could be in power in a few years.

Then again, that political uncertainty presumably makes the Israelis panic that some real nutjob could gain control. Unfortunately the whole dynamic is governed by fear on both sides, and that's never a good sign...


What are they, Allawite? The country's 3/4 Sunni according to Wiki...

RedKaos

Yes, its more or less an Allawite dyntasy since Al-Assad's father, and the trend looks to continue with his son being prepared. Which religous sect the majority belong to doesnt necessarily dictate the politics of the nation; Iraq has a shia majority but for 25 years the Sunnis have enjoyed more power and a higher standing due to Saddam's predominantely Sunni administration, as well as the sceptism towards the shia population.

EZee

wouldnt it be easier to just let them develop nukes...

Plechazunga

What about Allawites in Iraq, then? I mean, the Iraqi Ba'ath was pretty much dominated intellectually by Syrians like ʿAflaq for years wasn't it?

RedKaos

Alawites is a term that simply refers to a minority in Syria who practise a sect of Shia Islam, hence there are no Iraqi alawites, just simply Iraqi Shias.

And Iraq was never really 'dominated intellectually' by the Syrians as you put it; The Iraqi Ba'ath party had is roots as an underwhelming political force in Iraqi politics which only came to prominence following the coup in 1963, and more so following Saddam's rise to power. Besides when Saddam took power in '79 Iraqi-Syrian relations were severed and Syrian forces actually made up part of the coalition that contested Iraq in the 1991 gulf war.

Both the Iraqi and Syrian party had the same roots and initial goals and values, though they each took different paths following changes in leadership.

Plechazunga

I meant up until Saddam took power, or the later al-Bakr years when he was running things in all but name.

I dunno, Kanan Makiya's analysis places the Syrian Ba'ath as the dominant political force in those years... he claims the two countries even came close to uniting at one point...

Raoul

Israel probably don't have the appropriate weaponry to do it, although it would be particularly humiliating if they did. The US on the other hand, could obliterate any Iranian sites without breaking a sweat and still have time to play 9 holes in the afternoon.

mjs020294

There is absolutely zero chance of any country developing nuclear facilities without the US knowing about it. Satellite and surveillance these days make it impossible to hide any major industrial facility. Just do a Google Earth over US air bases or power stations, the detail available to the general public is amazing. That imaginary is using technology we had twenty years ago, so think what the military can see these days.

Its better to do the right thing rather than take easy options. The more countries with nuclear weapons increases the chances of a nuclear war/incident.

The notion that Iran want nukes because Israel have them is absolutely ridiculous. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict needs resolving but it has nothing directly to do with Iran or any other country. Israel is no threat to Iran or any country other than when said countries openly preach the destruction of Israel.

It would be fool hardy for the US/West and everyone else to stand back and let a rogue state like Iran obtain nuclear capabilities.

Raoul

Good. In that case we should all relax and allow Iran to acquire all the nukes they want.

Raoul

Yes, they can destroy objects that are well underground, and if they are too far underground then there are special bombs designed to clear the way for them before they arrive. Despite their chest pounding bravado, the Iranians would be completely defenseless to stop a US attack of any sort.

Agreed. Obama isn't the type to do such a thing, and the Iranians know it. If however they continue to develop nukes, and a crisis ensues, then they will likely have to deal with a Republican in the White House (probably Mitt Romney), at which point they'll be in trouble.