Politics at Westminster

Team Brian GB

To stop cluttering other threads that are not directly relevant or starting new threads everytime something happens, it ought to be easier to have one thread of significance, akin to the US presidential race thread.

As I noted last night, yougov's tracking poll for the first time in a year put the Conservatives ahead of Labour, this isn't a one-time spike but a trend developing over the last few weeks where Labour's lead became smaller and smaller - other pollsters have had the Conservatives ahead before this.

What is most interesting in the numbers is the breakdown in the 18-24 demographic, the area where the Conservatives have taken ground back to lead overall:

Conservatives: 39%
Labour: 45%

This is one of Labour's most important constituencies, on election day last year they led the Conservatives by twenty percentage points, over the summer the distance between the two was somewhat similar - in recent weeks the gap has dropped dramatically to the point where the Conservatives are actually competitive amongst young people. When youth unemployment is so high, for Labour to be shedding support to such extent will every discouraging for them.

Even in Scotland the Conservatives have been clawing back ground, The Conservatives stand at 23%, the SNP at 33% and Labour at 35% - the next general election may turn into the nightmare scenario for Labour, having to run to the left in Scotland to snuff out any defection to the Scottish nationalists and having to run to the right in the south and the midlands to get the necessary floating voters. How you do that in a four week, centralised campaign will be keeping the Labour hierarchy up at night.

rcoobc

Good idea. Why have you used constituencies to describe an age band of Britain if I may ask?

Satisfaction in all 3 main parties must be pretty low. Perhaps not at an al time low, because in general its usually pretty poor, but for the average voter who doesn't support the conservatives, the choice is between 2 unproven party leaders, neither of which look like Prime Minister material

Team Brian GB

A core vote can be described as a constituency or a demographic or many other things interchangably.

Team Brian GB

There was quite a significant drop off in turnout following 1997 that we have not yet bounced back from, make of that what you will.

1979: 76.0%
1983: 72.7%
1987: 75.3%
1992: 77.7%
1997: 71.3%
------
2001: 59.4%
2005: 61.4%
2010: 65.1%

peterstorey

People think that all main parties are much of a muchness and are in thrall to global finance. There isn't a real alternative on offer so why bother to vote.

Stanley Road

If only polls could reflect how well a party is doing and not how badly another is doing

People usually vote on one policy alone, people usually vote for the slicker looking leader or the one that speaks better and thats where it ends

When the tories came in in the 70's the labour MP's all looked like a bunch of trams

When tony was voted in the Conners all looked like corpses, dull and unappealing

For that reason alone, there wasn't another choice bar Cameroon last time round

Look sharp, soundd enthusiastic and hope the oppo's look like Compo, it's the way in the door

Mockney

I'll vote for anyone who can conclusively prove beyond doubt that they're not a lizard.

Adzzz

Conservatives popular amongst young people? I think I've met one Tory. Maybe two.

SteveJ

This thread wouldn't exist if those polls showed the Conservatives struggling.

Mockney

They all live in Wibbly upon the Bulge or Bubbly St Chedder upon the Mere....Or Knightsbridge. They aren't actually real people tbf.

Adzzz

I thought as much, I wouldn't mind living in Bubbly St Diary-lea on the mare, or whatever it's called. Decent house prices at the very least, what what.

Mockney

Yeah but if Midsommer Murders has taught me anything, it's that you'd have to put up with a ridiculously high murder rate.

That said, I wouldn't mind terrorising a comedy vicar. But the sheer amount of jam would be likely to drive me insane.

Adzzz

Also, there are a fecking lot of birds that chirp the same tune at the same time in these areas. The minute you hear that same incessant song - be warned, jam makers and murderers abound. (Possibly Jam making murderers.)

Mockney

I'd assume most of the murderers were also jam makers, because everyone in the countryside is a jam maker. There's literally nothing else to do, apart from go for a walk or have an affair.

Team Brian GB

Or horse ride, or get snowed in.

peterstorey

A few mouthy minor public school young fogie toff Tories on here, though.

evra

True, most voters don't come to their senses until they've taken out a mortgage.

peterstorey

Sandwich

evra

SteveJ

Rumours abound, as they say, of a Spring election being called by Cameron & co.

peterstorey

Splodgenessabounds, Cameron won't do it unless the Lib Dems force it and they won't because they'll be decimated x10.

SteveJ

Granted the source was my Political Correspondent Mr Twitter...

Team Brian GB

When numbers are this tight there is little rationale to do it, yes the Conservatives are leading but just barely. If the Government can last through to 2015 then it should, if the numbers are to be trusted the economy is 12 - 18 months from steady growth and low inflation - that in combination with Ed Miliband falling over his own feet is reason enough to continue as is.

Plus nobody is ready for a spring election.

peterstorey

Labour should be ready and pushing for it but they're all over the fucking place.

Team Brian GB

They also have nowhere near enough money for a national campaign in the near future.

Jippy

Labour seems to be losing a lot of its future support base, but not sure I see many of those disaffected moving over to the Conservatives or the Lib Dems- reckon a lot will just drift off into non-voting political apathy.

peterstorey

They need to stop trying to get votes from Daily Mail readers and get back to brass tacks.

Wibble

Although surely it is important that the wrong lizard doesn't get in.

Colin129

But I thought everyone hated Cameron 'cos he's a toff & all his cabinet are toffs.

And also those evil Tories have put all the youth out of work too.

Just goes to show how shit the alternative is doesn't it?

Fiskey

I live in knightsbridge and I'm a member of the lib dems, appalling generalisation. Well I'm a member of my university conservative society, buts that's largely for the unlimited port and banter.

Eugenius

Isn't the head of the Oxford conservative society a massive racist and homophobe?

Fiskey

Changes every term, they're decent people though.

peterstorey

'Banter' was the word Gary Dobson was using for racist abuse the other day.

Eugenius

Still, there's the fact that port takes like complete shite too.

Though uni is full of tories and closet tories. The latter generally refuse to associate themselves with voting for the conservatives whilst airing typically conservative views.

Doing economics, the whole faculty is pretty much tory too.

rednev

All of them?

Oxford Tories' nights of port and Nazi songs - Telegraph

Mockney

You're right......I should've said Kensington & Chelsea as well.

sammsky1

Wow. Im quite disturbed by this.

If they are found to be guilty, the entire organisation should be shut down. It would be in normal society, so it should have no place within the confines of a learning institution.

evra

Yes I am also genuinely shocked that students are getting drunk and singing tasteless, insensitive songs. Because of the actions of a few members it's clearly a proportional response to shut-down the Conservative Club.

Eugenius

It's also people very high up in the organisation making bigotted comments etc.

Edit: OK I've been confusing it with CUCA...although it's nice to see it runs within the student conservative population.

sammsky1

Is that what you call it? Wait, don't tell me, you also think the FA should let Terry and Suarez of the hook too?

Stop making excuses, there should be ZERO tolerance for these things. Which means the bloody thing should be shut down.