U.S. Presidential Race: Official Thread

Frosty · 11th February 2008, 00:44

Illinois Senator Barack Obama is projected to win the Democratic caucus in Maine, defeating Hillary Clinton.

The Maine contest tops a weekend of gains by Mr Obama in the battle for the party's presidential nomination.

On Saturday, Mr Obama won in polls Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington state and the US Virgin Islands.

The clean sweep of all five weekend contests puts him almost neck-and-neck with Hillary Clinton in their deadlocked nomination battle.

Meanwhile, Mrs Clinton has appointed a new campaign manager after this weekend's setbacks.

Maggie Williams, who was the New York senator's chief of staff when her husband was serving as US president, will take over from Patty Doyle, who has decided to step down.

Campaign aides said Ms Doyle's decision was not urged upon her by Mrs Clinton or any senior members of her team, the Associated Press reports.

Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton now head into a series of contests on Tuesday: Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7238153.stm

Cal? · 11th February 2008, 01:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Instant Karma

Hillary is ahead if you count the super delegates. Obama was marginally ahead based on pledged delegates after Super Tuesday. He's moved even farther ahead now.

She's holding the lead in Texas because of the large Latin American voter base. Them and women voters are her biggest strengths.

The superdelegates initially pledged their support to Hillary because she was the establishment figure and no one really gave Obama much of a chance. But if its neck and neck, they might start changing their allegiance too. Obama is getting a lot of democrats excited and voter turnout at most places has more than doubled. If the superdelegates and party figures have any sense, they'd realize that he is their best bet against McCain.

The organization he has setup at the grass roots level have been the reason why he does better at caucuses. If the campaign alone is anything to go by, he has been able to appeal to all demographics, out fought and out organized the Clinton political machinery without taking money from lobbyists whereas Hillary had already overspent her budget.

That's all very well, but General Elections tend to be won in the big states and she still performs better than him in the big ones.

Also, I think we probably haven't heard the end of the Florida episode yet.

Alex · 11th February 2008, 02:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cal?

That's all very well, but General Elections tend to be won in the big states and she still performs better than him in the big ones.

Also, I think we probably haven't heard the end of the Florida episode yet.

Ahhh Florida, always knows how to fuck up an election.

Cal? · 11th February 2008, 03:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex

Ahhh Florida, always knows how to fuck up an election.

Well, if it wasn't for Florida, there wouldn't have been the 8 years of George W Bush.

Alex · 11th February 2008, 03:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cal?

Well, if it wasn't for Florida, there wouldn't have been the 8 years of George W Bush.

Tbh 4/8 years of Gore could have been worse

Cal? · 11th February 2008, 07:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex

Tbh 4/8 years of Gore could have been worse

Personally I think Gore would have been much better than Bush, but we'd never know...

Frosty · 11th February 2008, 11:53

On another note, has anyone noticed how The Guardian has been consistently pro-Obama and anti-Hillary over the last few weeks? It's getting even more biased now.

Red Dreams · 11th February 2008, 15:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex

Tbh 4/8 years of Gore could have been worse

Cali Red · 12th February 2008, 06:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cal?

That's all very well, but General Elections tend to be won in the big states and she still performs better than him in the big ones.

Also, I think we probably haven't heard the end of the Florida episode yet.

That's actually not true about the big states. The big states are predominately democrat states in the general election. New York and California are always considered lost by Republicans. The battle ground states are always places like Ohio, Michigan and a couple others that are close.

Alex · 12th February 2008, 06:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Red

That's actually not true about the big states. The big states are predominately democrat states in the general election. New York and California are always considered lost by Republicans. The battle ground states are always places like Ohio, Michigan and a couple others that are close.

flo-rida

Red Dreams · 12th February 2008, 14:53

whichever party wins two of Florida,Ohio and Pensylvania will win the election.

Cal? · 13th February 2008, 04:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Red

That's actually not true about the big states. The big states are predominately democrat states in the general election. New York and California are always considered lost by Republicans. The battle ground states are always places like Ohio, Michigan and a couple others that are close.

I was thinking about Florida mainly, not sure how well it'll go down with the old grannies there with Obama ignoring them.

Raoul · 13th February 2008, 09:45

I may have to eat my words about Hillary winning it this year. Looks like Obama is unstoppable at this stage.

Wibble · 13th February 2008, 10:42

I think she will still win. Obama has been expected to edge ahead this week anyway. How must the non-minority candidates feel?

Out of luck perhaps?

utdalltheway · 13th February 2008, 13:15

went to the Polls last night. I was the last one allowed in the door. fcukin traffic was a nightmare due to icy roads.
The place was packed and the polling station workers were saying it was busy all day long. Haven't checked the numbers but it certainly sounded like a high turnout in Virginia.

Obama won fairly easily here which surprised some per the radio this morning as VA is considered a southern state.
At this rate he has some serious momentum and tbh looks hard to beat. Hillary's campaign manager and now the deputy mgr have left (or were fired?).

ooeat0meoo · 13th February 2008, 13:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raoul

I may have to eat my words about Hillary winning it this year. Looks like Obama is unstoppable at this stage.

We'll see - it's still very close, but it looks like the showdown will be in Texas. With the monumental fuck-up that Waco was in Texas, I can't imagine the Clintons are the most favored politicians of that region.

I voted for Obama, yesterday.

The news keeps saying that the Super Delegates (Presently seated Democrats of each state) could decide the nomination in backroom deals. That would be extreemly fucked-up if we have another President take office without the full support of the voter's choice. After two very questionable presidential elections, America is looking less and less about democracy.

Grinner · 13th February 2008, 15:50

What concerns me is that McCain is quite electable for a Repub despite Bush's 8 years of fuck-ups, and the projections don't put him many points behind Obama. If McCain, a warrior and national security figure, runs against Obama, the liberal anti-war kid, and somehow a threat to US national security or an upsurge in the 'war on terror' takes place, then independents, mongs, old people and moms will all go to McCain and swing it his way.

Hillary, on the other hand, has better national security credentials and would ride out such a situation.

I wonder if the Repubs have considered this scenario and are reading their books about generating fear among the people at the right time!

MikeUpNorth · 13th February 2008, 15:52

That's pretty good thinking Grinner. I can imagine that scenario all too easily as well.

Nick 0208 Ldn · 13th February 2008, 16:04

Heard part of Hillary's speech from last night on the radio a minute ago.

I've got to say, the bit at the end, the "I'm tested, i'm ready, let's make it happen", had shades of Delia about it.

May as well have gone something like this:

"A message for the best electorate in the world: we need a 12th man here. Where are you? Where are you? Let's be having you! Come on!!"

She's betting the farm on March 4th, and unfortunately for heri think she is going to get caught out by this wave of support and hope spreading across the US for Obama.

I heard somebody compare the Obama of now to Blair in the build up to his election in 97, what do you make of that?

Grinner · 13th February 2008, 16:16

Obama is currently getting a free ride from the media. They are all starry-eyed with him. Hillary gets pounded and it translates into lost states.

But, she now has time to get that well-oiled machine in gear for TX and OH. I don't think they'll get nasty with Obama, but a new approach will surely occur. Latinos will be important in TX and it's not yet clear who gets them.

Red Dreams · 13th February 2008, 17:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grinner

Obama is currently getting a free ride from the media. They are all starry-eyed with him. Hillary gets pounded and it translates into lost states.

But, she now has time to get that well-oiled machine in gear for TX and OH. I don't think they'll get nasty with Obama, but a new approach will surely occur. Latinos will be important in TX and it's not yet clear who gets them.

Hillary is not getting the votes...end off mate....

no point blaming the media...she is out there...go get the message out...'why people should vote for you'

the key is that Obama is getting into Clinton's favoured demographics...white women and blue collar...although she still has the majority of the Latino votes...he is slowly eating into that too...

she now needs to win Big in Ohio and Texas....by at least 25 points....will be difficult...

but I would never discount the Clintons....

interesting campaign for all the Political junkies....

Frosty · 13th February 2008, 17:25

I think Hillary needs 56% of the remaining delegates to win, which means if Obama loses narrowly in Texas and Ohio, he is still in pole position.

Alex · 13th February 2008, 17:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grinner

Obama is currently getting a free ride from the media. They are all starry-eyed with him. Hillary gets pounded and it translates into lost states.

But, she now has time to get that well-oiled machine in gear for TX and OH. I don't think they'll get nasty with Obama, but a new approach will surely occur. Latinos will be important in TX and it's not yet clear who gets them.

I do agree with with to some degree about the media giving Obama a pass(although I don't really think it plays much a role in Hilary losing states), I think they will become a lot more critical of him once he is nominated. I think he will win the Democratic nomination, but I could see him faltering in the general election due to a lack of experience. I wonder who his running mate will be certainly has to go with a white male as his VP if he wants to win the election, that may sound a bit racist but it is true.

Red Dreams · 13th February 2008, 17:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frosty

I think Hillary needs 56% of the remaining delegates to win, which means if Obama loses narrowly in Texas and Ohio, he is still in pole position.

..she is still not counted out in spite of all the 'experts' spouting whatever...

...but she is running out of states....and dont forget even if she wins Ohio and Texas...Obama can still win states like WI and NC and some other smaller ones....so that eats into her 'leads'..she is leading in OH by 17 points in the latest polls...but that is 3 weeks away...time for him to make inroads...especially with the expected WI win...he is leading there...

finally the Superdelegates that she has had pledged....may become unpledged if Obama still leads come April....probably when this will all be over...

Red Dreams · 13th February 2008, 17:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex

I do agree with with to some degree about the media giving Obama a pass(although I don't really think it plays much a role in Hilary losing states), I think they will become a lot more critical of him once he is nominated. I think he will win the Democratic nomination, but I could see him faltering in the general election due to a lack of experience. I wonder who his running mate will be certainly has to go with a white male as his VP if he wants to win the election, that may sound a bit racist but it is true.

white VP? this whole election process has turned that theory on its head...

IF Obama is the Dems candidate, I think it will be Richardson as VP...and not for the obvious Latino vote but for that experience factor in which Obama is weak....

as for the Gen Election...look at the Democrat and Republican votes ...almost 2 to 1 advantage...and McCain is hardly the darling of the Religious right...

this year it is rightly or wrongly about enthusian and anger....there is a knee jerk reaction against what Bush has and still is doing....

it will be Democrat President...probably...I better say that.....
but as I have said before McCain is a decent enough guy..so no complains if he does win it either...

Mihajlovic · 14th February 2008, 11:32

I cant stand McCain. He's been on the Albanian payroll and actively supported the Albanian case whenever he had a chance to. Apart from that I'm sick of the Republicans in general.

I didn't mind Obama until I saw that video "yes we can" on his website. It's sickening. I decided I hate politics at all.

Grinner · 14th February 2008, 21:03

Romney just endorsed Macca. He's their man for sure now.

FresnoBob · 14th February 2008, 21:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Dreams

as for the Gen Election...look at the Democrat and Republican votes ...almost 2 to 1 advantage...and McCain is hardly the darling of the Religious right...

this year it is rightly or wrongly about enthusian and anger....there is a knee jerk reaction against what Bush has and still is doing....

it will be Democrat President...probably...I better say that.....
but as I have said before McCain is a decent enough guy..so no complains if he does win it either...

I wouldn't just add up the votes for Democrat and Republicans in the presidential primary and assume that the Demos are favored. At the precinct for which I was the inspector a lot of Republican women "changed party affiliation" for the primary just to vote for Hillary. If she doesn't get the nod, they won't be staying with the Democrats to support Obama.
Similarly, we had an assortment of African-American voters show up who normally didn't participate in the primary process. Again, if Barack isn't on the ticket, don't bet too much that they will be rushing to the polls to elect Hillary (I've heard from a few black voters that if Obama doesn't get the nomination, they'll be voting for McCain in the general).
On the GOP side, the issue is whether the right-wing religious zealots can read the spray-paint on the wall in November and vote for McCain (and a GOP administration) as a better alternative than the Democrats. Given their history of being more interested in doctrinal purity than political compromise and accomodation, I suspect McCain has a lot of work to do to bring that wing of the party back into the fold.

11th February 2008, 00:44	#121 (permalink)
Frosty Turns women gay Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Plotting to take over the world with my Illuminati brethren Posts: 7,294	Obama set for clear Maine victory Illinois Senator Barack Obama is projected to win the Democratic caucus in Maine, defeating Hillary Clinton. The Maine contest tops a weekend of gains by Mr Obama in the battle for the party's presidential nomination. On Saturday, Mr Obama won in polls Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington state and the US Virgin Islands. The clean sweep of all five weekend contests puts him almost neck-and-neck with Hillary Clinton in their deadlocked nomination battle. Meanwhile, Mrs Clinton has appointed a new campaign manager after this weekend's setbacks. Maggie Williams, who was the New York senator's chief of staff when her husband was serving as US president, will take over from Patty Doyle, who has decided to step down. Campaign aides said Ms Doyle's decision was not urged upon her by Mrs Clinton or any senior members of her team, the Associated Press reports. Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton now head into a series of contests on Tuesday: Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7238153.stm

11th February 2008, 11:53	#127 (permalink)
Frosty Turns women gay Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Plotting to take over the world with my Illuminati brethren Posts: 7,294	On another note, has anyone noticed how The Guardian has been consistently pro-Obama and anti-Hillary over the last few weeks? It's getting even more biased now.

12th February 2008, 14:53	#131 (permalink)
Red Dreams First Team Regular Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Thunder Road to Old Trafford Posts: 10,002	whichever party wins two of Florida,Ohio and Pensylvania will win the election.

13th February 2008, 09:45	#133 (permalink)
Raoul The Administrator Join Date: Aug 1999 Location: Baghdad Posts: 26,349	I may have to eat my words about Hillary winning it this year. Looks like Obama is unstoppable at this stage.

13th February 2008, 10:42	#134 (permalink)
Wibble Teeth like a reindeer. Hung like a horse. Join Date: Jun 2000 Location: Ingadus Speramus Posts: 33,161	I think she will still win. Obama has been expected to edge ahead this week anyway. How must the non-minority candidates feel? Out of luck perhaps?

13th February 2008, 13:15	#135 (permalink)
utdalltheway First Team Sub Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: USA (orig. Cobh) Posts: 5,693	went to the Polls last night. I was the last one allowed in the door. fcukin traffic was a nightmare due to icy roads. The place was packed and the polling station workers were saying it was busy all day long. Haven't checked the numbers but it certainly sounded like a high turnout in Virginia. Obama won fairly easily here which surprised some per the radio this morning as VA is considered a southern state. At this rate he has some serious momentum and tbh looks hard to beat. Hillary's campaign manager and now the deputy mgr have left (or were fired?).

13th February 2008, 15:50	#137 (permalink)
Grinner fat gutted, hairy shouldered stinky arse Join Date: May 2003 Location: Kevin Costner - Prince of Cunts Posts: 11,583	What concerns me is that McCain is quite electable for a Repub despite Bush's 8 years of fuck-ups, and the projections don't put him many points behind Obama. If McCain, a warrior and national security figure, runs against Obama, the liberal anti-war kid, and somehow a threat to US national security or an upsurge in the 'war on terror' takes place, then independents, mongs, old people and moms will all go to McCain and swing it his way. Hillary, on the other hand, has better national security credentials and would ride out such a situation. I wonder if the Repubs have considered this scenario and are reading their books about generating fear among the people at the right time!

13th February 2008, 15:52	#138 (permalink)
MikeUpNorth Wobbles like a massive pair of tits Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 2,479	That's pretty good thinking Grinner. I can imagine that scenario all too easily as well.

13th February 2008, 16:04	#139 (permalink)
Nick 0208 Ldn First Team Sub Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Britanniae ~ It's good to ship. :) Posts: 5,170	Heard part of Hillary's speech from last night on the radio a minute ago. I've got to say, the bit at the end, the "I'm tested, i'm ready, let's make it happen", had shades of Delia about it. May as well have gone something like this: "A message for the best electorate in the world: we need a 12th man here. Where are you? Where are you? Let's be having you! Come on!!" She's betting the farm on March 4th, and unfortunately for heri think she is going to get caught out by this wave of support and hope spreading across the US for Obama. I heard somebody compare the Obama of now to Blair in the build up to his election in 97, what do you make of that?

13th February 2008, 16:16	#140 (permalink)
Grinner fat gutted, hairy shouldered stinky arse Join Date: May 2003 Location: Kevin Costner - Prince of Cunts Posts: 11,583	Obama is currently getting a free ride from the media. They are all starry-eyed with him. Hillary gets pounded and it translates into lost states. But, she now has time to get that well-oiled machine in gear for TX and OH. I don't think they'll get nasty with Obama, but a new approach will surely occur. Latinos will be important in TX and it's not yet clear who gets them.

13th February 2008, 17:25	#142 (permalink)
Frosty Turns women gay Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Plotting to take over the world with my Illuminati brethren Posts: 7,294	I think Hillary needs 56% of the remaining delegates to win, which means if Obama loses narrowly in Texas and Ohio, he is still in pole position.

14th February 2008, 11:32	#146 (permalink)
Mihajlovic Its Baltic! Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Carthago Posts: 5,343	I cant stand McCain. He's been on the Albanian payroll and actively supported the Albanian case whenever he had a chance to. Apart from that I'm sick of the Republicans in general. I didn't mind Obama until I saw that video "yes we can" on his website. It's sickening. I decided I hate politics at all.

14th February 2008, 21:03	#147 (permalink)
Grinner fat gutted, hairy shouldered stinky arse Join Date: May 2003 Location: Kevin Costner - Prince of Cunts Posts: 11,583	Romney just endorsed Macca. He's their man for sure now.