[Dr. Dwayne]

what do you Yanks make of the democrats talk of threatening to back out of NAFTA?

Electioneering?

tired of being found guilty of not actually honouring free trade agreements, or the power of certain lobby groups (i.e softwood lumber, florida hothouse tomato growers)?

realizing that the agreement meant the American labour force would have to upgrade their educations and finding out that many were incapable (for whatever reason) of doing so and struggling due to manufacturing jobs going to Mexico?

embarassment that the Canadian dollar, after 30 odd years of worthlessness is now worth more than the greenback?

[spinoza]

The States are so cheap now it's unbelievable. 2 bucks to the quid, 1.50 to the euro...

The only problem for me is that the cnuting Peruvians raised their prices in dollars as the exchange rate fell...

[Frosty]

It did not look like a political wake. Senator Hillary Clinton emerged into a basketball stadium in Houston wearing a bright red jacket, beaming broadly and waving at thousands of screaming supporters.

Gene Green, a Texan congressman, introduced her with confident words predicting her return to the White House. 'I think we have a president standing on this platform! The next president of the United States!' he shouted. Clinton carried on the mood of hopeful triumph. She skilfully worked the crowd, hushing it with touching anecdotes and sparking cheers with exhortations to support her. 'It is beginning to grow,' she said of her Texas campaign. 'We are moving!'

But the cracks in Clinton's bid for the presidency were also on display. Though 6,000 people had come to the Delmar Sports Complex in the Houston suburbs, there were many empty blue seats in the stadium. High up in the top tier, whole rows went unfilled.

Clinton is in the battle of her life and the odds are against her. And it is not only a fight to be the next occupant of the White House. It is also about the legacy that Clinton and her husband, Bill, have left America and whether they still have a role to play.

They are also willing to play nasty to emerge victorious. American TV screens are now full of one of the most aggressive attack ads in recent history. Dubbed 'Children', it in effect suggests that a vote for Barack Obama will lead to such weakness on national security that the American homeland will be in peril. It is shot over pictures of sleeping babies and it appeals directly to the 'security moms' demographic that Clinton needs.

But the facts on the ground remain the same. It has finally come down to this: on Tuesday, Clinton needs to win Texas and Ohio. Anything less could force her from the race and spell the end of the Clinton dynasty. The revered Clinton brand, once so confident of a second act, is now desperately fighting to stop the curtain coming down early.

Even her most ardent fans have doubts. Toy Halsey, 67, had waited for hours to see Clinton in Houston. But would Clinton win Texas? 'I hope so,' Halsey said, and then looked unsure. 'It is going to be hard,' she admitted. Later, as Clinton's speech wore on, a steady trickle of supporters left early. They were like loyal fans near the end of a football match ducking out because they knew their side was going to lose.

It was not meant to be like this. It has been forgotten in the rush to write the Clintons' political obituaries, but for most of last year Clinton ran a flawless campaign. She dominated through the spring and summer and early autumn, fending off the challenge from the upstart Obama. Then, during a televised debate on 30 October, she fluffed a question about driving licences for illegal immigrants. Suddenly it was open season on Clinton. First came defeat in Iowa. Then followed a disastrous performance in South Carolina. She steadied herself on Super Tuesday, before the momentum behind Obama propelled him to 11 straight victories.

Now Clinton's presidential hopes are pinned on winning Texas and Ohio. Yet neither looks certain. She still leads in Ohio, where her blue-collar support seems to be giving her a narrow lead. But, in Texas, Obama has now nudged ahead, mobilising his familiar combination of black, educated professional and young voters. If previous contests are a guide, once Obama has overturned a Clinton lead in a state, he tends to win it. 'Times have changed. The reality is that the Clinton campaign is now in a place that they never expected to be in,' said Professor Shawn Bowler, a political scientist at the University of California at Riverside.

If Clinton's ambitions for the 2008 White House do die in Texas, it will be a fitting full stop. For it was here, back in 1972, that a youthful Hillary Rodham and her boyfriend, Bill Clinton, worked on voter registration for the anti-Vietnam war candidacy of George McGovern. That was her first big political experience in the field. Now, as she seeks to be America's first woman President, the Clintons are back where it all began.

Her campaign here is pulling out all the stops. As Clinton arrived at the Houston rally, it would be her third speech of the day. Her voice was not just hoarse because of recent campaigning. It has been hoarse for weeks as one of the most gruelling battles in memory has played out across the country. Yet Clinton herself still seemed on top form. Her stump speech was powerful and delivered with enthusiasm. The crowd responded too. The cheers, amplified by the small indoor venue, were deafening.

Nor is Clinton alone in her fight. Chelsea Clinton has been cutting a trail across American campuses. And, of course, Bill Clinton has been pounding through Ohio and Texas on a punishing schedule. He can make up to half-a-dozen appearances a day, on the stump for his wife in a bid to return to the lost glories of his own days in the White House.

Yet the Bill Clinton campaigning now is different from the one whose actions in South Carolina - playing the race card and talking about himself more than his spouse - helped derail her candidacy. In a rally on a college campus in Austin, he even said she would be a better president than he had been. 'I believe that if you elect her... you will have more jobs, more broadly based prosperity, during her presidency than when I was president. You will never have a chance to vote for a better change-maker,' he said.

Such a profound shift shows how much has changed. Behind the scenes, Bill Clinton remains as powerful as ever, playing a key role in a recent shake-up of her top staff. But in public he has backed off from 1990s nostalgia; now the focus is not on a return to the prosperity of the Clintonian past, but a desperate bid to convince Americans that the Clintons remain relevant.

It is no longer an easy sell. At the Austin rally, a group of Obama-ite students heckled the former President. One of Clinton's prominent Austin supporters, county commissioner Margaret Gomez, made her pitch with a metaphor that seemed to spring out of a high-school prom. 'When you get to the front of the line, you don't let a nice cute guy take your place,' she told the crowd of students. 'Especially if he's going to whisper sweet nothings in your ear.'

But that nice, cute guy is doing well in Texas and his sweet nothings have an eager audience. A day before Clinton appeared in Houston, Obama addressed a crowd of thousands at the small college town of San Marcos. It was an enormous rally, planned with the precision of a rock concert. The town's main street was shut down, snipers patrolled the rooftops and hundreds of people crowded the edge of the outdoor event, desperate to get a peek at Obama. Nearly all of them were young. 'His coolness is definitely better than Clinton's,' said photography student Mitchell Ahrens, 22.

The brutal fact is that no one in Clinton's campaign predicted the emergence of the Obama phenomenon. It was a staggering oversight and blindsided their otherwise enormous efforts. Even now, with the pundits saying her campaign is in ruins, Clinton's bid for the presidency would be stellar in a normal race. She raised an astonishing $35m in February. She speaks to huge crowds. Yet this is no longer a normal race. At each turn, 'Obama-mania' is beating her hands down. Obama is expecting to have raised more than $50m last month. His crowds across Texas - and everywhere else in America - have shattered records.

Now that the Clintons are fighting for their political future, they have belatedly realised that Hillary is battling not just an opponent, but a fully fledged movement. So they have gone negative. After all, there is little left to lose.

Her brutal new attack ad in Texas is simply the latest line in a series of nasty volleys at Obama. But it does set a new standard for naked aggression. The advert features a crisis hotline ringing in the middle of the night at the White House. 'It's 3am and your children are safe and asleep. Who do you want answering the phone?' the voiceover asks ominously over shots of sleeping babies.

The underlying message is stark: electing Obama will allow terrorists to hurt your children. But that ad is just the surface. Photos of Obama dressed up in traditional Somali garb on a trip to Africa surfaced on the infamous Drudge Report website.

The Clinton campaign has also stepped up attacks on the media for giving Obama an easy time, while pushing claims that Obama had plagiarised speeches and had borrowed the tactics of Republican bête noire Karl Rove in spreading misinformation. It has rapidly become a street fight, and it could get even dirtier.

The Clintons have prepared for this campaign since 2000; they are not about to let it go without using every tactic in their disposal. 'They don't give up. They don't know how to,' said Bowler. And yet the countdown has begun. Tuesday's vote looms in Texas and Ohio. If she loses one of those states, the pressure for her to quit will be immense.

But this fight may not be over. Clinton could win both her target states and spark yet another comeback. Or she could ignore the advice of her close advisers and fight on to Pennsylvania in six weeks' time. Late last week, top Clinton staffers were briefing reporters that she might fight on even if she just won one state this week. If that happens, she would probably face a revolt from party elders desperate to avoid a divided convention in August.

But she could ignore them and keep fighting with everything she has left. She could go to the courts to try to reinstate the currently discounted delegates of Florida and Michigan. Her team has already raised the prospect of suing in Texas, whose election rules are seen as too arcane. And that is before Texans have even voted.

[Frosty]

So far, Clinton has given no sign that defeat is seen as likely, no sign that this race is Obama's and that her final hope might actually lie 2012. Or that her time has finally passed.

In Houston, she was still asking her supporters for help in shaping the America to come, not looking back at her achievements. She still has a vision of a Clinton Era Mark II.

She ended her rally with a loud appeal. 'Are you ready?' Let's go out and make history together!' The crowd dutifully roared its approval. But the empty seats above the cheerers delivered a different kind of verdict. The days of the Clintons making history might soon be over.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008...selections2008

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Some polls put it at a dead heat in Texas now apparently.

[Clueless]

When will the results for Ohio and Texas be in, GMT?

[Frosty]

Originally Posted by Clueless

When will the results for Ohio and Texas be in, GMT?

Polls close at 7 local time, so I think about 2am Wednesday.

[Frosty]

Hillary Clinton's campaign team hinted today she will press on with the race for the Democratic nomination even if she loses Texas, one of the biggest states in the country which goes to the polls tomorrow.

On the eve of what has been billed as a make-or-break day for her campaign, Clinton's strategists said she will brush aside calls from supporters of Barack Obama and other senior Democrats to stand down if she loses.

As well as Texas, three other primaries are being held tomorrow: Ohio, another mega-state, as well as two small New England ones, Vermont and Rhode Island.

Indicating her intention to stay in the race, she told a rally in Toledo, Ohio, today: "I'm just getting warmed up."

Echoing the sentiment, Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist, in a conference call with reporters, said: "We expect on Wednesday morning that the momentum of senator Obama will be significantly blunted." Obama has won the last 11 contests.

Penn added there were lots of contests still to play for beyond tomorrow.

The Clinton team expressed confidence that she will take Ohio but was reluctant to make predictions about Texas.

Obama's aides said privately they felt they had a good chance of a win in Texas, but were less certain about Ohio.

Polls show Clinton leading in Ohio and Rhode Island, but Obama ahead in Vermont, and the two in a dead heat in Texas.

Bill Clinton said a fortnight ago his wife had to win both Texas and Ohio to remain competitive, but her strategists claimed today that winning Ohio would be enough.

The governor of New Mexico, Bill Richardson, who dropped out of the Democratic race in January, is among those putting pressure on Clinton to stand down if she does badly tomorrow. He said on yesterday: "I just think that D-Day is Tuesday."

John Kerry, the senator who was the Democratic nominee in 2004 and is now an Obama supporter, said: "Hillary Clinton has to win a big victory in both Ohio and Texas. It's not just winning a little bit. In order to close the gap on pledged delegates, she's got to win a very significant victory."

In spite of the upbeat message from the Clinton team, the stresses inside her campaign were exposed today.

In an astonishing lapse of discipline close to such a crucial voting day, Penn sent an email to the Los Angeles Times over the weekend in response to a story being prepared about internal rows.

In it, he claimed he had "no direct authority in the campaign", suggesting he is preparing the ground to avoid blame if she fails to secure the nomination.

Clinton's communications director, Howard Wolfson, sent another email to the paper saying Penn did have direct responsibility for the strategy and the message.

There were other signs too of Clinton's vulnerability. A few weeks ago, when Clinton was ahead in the polls in Ohio and Texas, her campaign team predicted that wins in the two states would leave Obama and Clinton tied in the number of delegates who will decide the nomination.

But they backed off that prediction for the first time today, acknowledging that Obama was still likely to remain ahead.

Clinton has mounted a much more aggressive campaign over the last few days and hit him hard today over his links with Antoin 'Tony' Rezko, the property developer whose trial for alleged corruption opened in Chicago today.

She also exploited a leaked memo suggesting Obama has been lying about adopting protectionist policies, a hot issue in recession-hit Ohio.

Obama has been saying publicly he would renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada, which many Americans blame for job losses. But the leaked memo from the Canadian government quotes one of Obama's economic advisers, Austan Goolsbee, saying threats to renegotiate should not be taken seriously.

The memo quotes Goolsbee as saying this "should be viewed as more about political positioning than a clear articulation of policy plans".

The implication that Obama is being hyprocritcal on trade is potentially damaging for him. Goolsbee said his views had been taken out of context.

The Clinton team today put out her most negative television ad yet, claiming that Obama had been derelict in his duty by expressing concern about al-Qaida in Afghanistan but then failing to hold a single meeting of the Senate sub-committee on Afghanistan that he chairs.

The ad ends: "Hillary Clinton will never be too busy to defend our national security."

John McCain also goes to the polls in the same states tomorrow but with clear majorities over Mike Huckabee, suggesting he could end the night close to securing the 1,191 delegates he needs for the Republican nomination.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008...selections2008

Do the Democrats want the White House in November or do they want to hand it to McCain - I'm puzzled...

[Red Dreams]

looks like 'Hillary how much will you pay me Clinton' is playing the Karl Rove strategy in Ohio and Texas....

fast on to becoming the pariah in the Democratic party....

[Red Dreams]

major fraud case involving Clintons brewing...will make the Rezko case re:Obama look like a parking ticket....

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=52151

[reddevilcanada]

[spinoza]

Originally Posted by Red Dreams

major fraud case involving Clintons brewing...will make the Rezko case re:Obama look like a parking ticket....

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=52151

Worldnetdaily?

Liars for Jesus?

[Frosty]

BREAKING NEWS: Obama, McCain win Vermont

EDIT: McCain takes Ohio

[esmufc07]

So is that Clinton out of the race now? When is the next big Primary?

[Frosty]

Democratic contest in Ohio "too close to call" - CNN

[Frosty]

Texas polls close at 0200 GMT, then the state holds its caucus.

Rhode Island polls close at 0200GMT.

[Frosty]

Originally Posted by esmufc07

So is that Clinton out of the race now? When is the next big Primary?

Vermont, Rhode Island, Texas and Ohio vote today. The Clinton campaign is declaring that they have won Texas, Ohio and RI.

After that Mississippi votes on the 11th.

EDIT: Wyoming caucuses for the Democrats on the 8th.

[esmufc07]

Originally Posted by Frosty

Vermont, Rhode Island, Texas and Ohio vote today. The Clinton campaign is declaring that they have won Texas, Ohio and RI.

After that Mississippi votes on the 11th.

I see, I hope Obama wins it.

[Frosty]

Hispanics and late deciders went big for Hillary Clinton in Texas Tuesday, according to exit polling of the Democratic primaries.

On the Republican side, voters are split over whether John McCain is conservative enough, while evangelical voters are also splitting their votes in Ohio and Texas between McCain and his only remaining rival, Mike Huckabee.

For Democrats, Latino voters in Texas make up 32 percent of the vote in that state and they were breaking 64 percent for Clinton to 35 percent for Barack Obama. Broken down, Obama captured younger Hispanics by double digits, while older Hispanics preferred Clinton 2 to 1, according to the polling.

Meanwhile, Clinton’s so-called “3 a.m. phone ad” might have made an impact, as late deciders — those voters who made up their minds in the last three days — were going for Clinton 66 percent to 34 percent for Obama.

Women voters were also remaining strong for Clinton, 54 percent to 46 percent in Texas,
In Ohio, the economy emerged as the primary issue for voters in the Democratic contest, with 59 percent saying it was the most important issue facing the country today. Of those voters, 52 percent were going for Clinton over 46 percent for Obama.

On the issue of international trade, 81 percent of voters in Ohio said it took jobs away from, while only 10 percent said it creates more jobs for the state.

Voters who say they belong to a union household — 34 percent — went for Clinton 56 percent to 43 percent for Obama.

On the Republican side, large majorities of voters in Texas and Ohio say they are satisfied with McCain, who is seeking to lock in the nomination after Tuesday’s contests. In Ohio 71 percent said they are satisfied, while in Texas, 75 percent are satisfied with McCain.

In Ohio, 47 percent said McCain is conservative enough, but 42 percent said no. In Texas, 46 percent said his conservative credentials were in order, while 44 percent said no.

Evangelical voters are split — in Ohio, where these voters make up 42 percent of the GOP vote, 49 percent are going with Huckabee, according to the polling, while 44 percent were going with McCain. In Texas, evangelicals make up 51 percent of Republican voters, and of them, 45 percent were breaking with Huckabee, while 44 percent were going with McCain.

Of GOP voters in Ohio, 17 percent said age was indeed a factor in their decision — McCain is 71 — while 81 percent said it did not matter. In Texas, 11 percent said age was a factor, while 88 percent said they didn’t worry about it.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03...n-for-hillary/

It looks as though the 'George Wallace campaign' [(c) Jasonrh] has worked for Hillary. Expect more and more attack ads and negative smear campaigning against Obama from now on.

[The_Red_Hope]

Clinton takes Rhode Island, Texas and Ohio.

Obama gets Vermont.

Damn.

[Cal?]

So negative attaacks works... Hillary is going to go for it big time now, she has stopped his momentum and as someone pointed out earlier, has nothing to lose at all.

She's going to use every trick in the book (or even those not in it) in these coming months and I really can see this drag onto the convention.

[crappycraperson]

Clinton has won all the big states and Florida if you count it. These are supposedly the states which make the diff in the main one.

[Cal?]

Originally Posted by crappycraperson

Clinton has won all the big states and Florida if you count it. These are supposedly the states which make the diff in the main one.

McCain must be loving this, nobody is giving the GOP a chance this year and the Dems are doing the best to fuck it up amongst themselves.

I'm not sure all those women who are voting for Hillary will be anywhere as enthusiastic for Obama come November - likewise African Americans for her...

Hillary's negative campaigns will work and I hope she does get the nomination, otherwise, McCain doesn't even have to come up with his own strategry - copy all Hillary's ads...

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

What about this memo that the AP got a hold of? Obama is trying to play it down but going by the Canadian goverment's reaction, that is going to be a little difficult.

[Van Piorsing]

Hillary strikes back... this is getting really intresting, in democratic camp.

[MrMarcello]

Care to dissect? Received this email from a co-worker.

Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There's only one problem with this analysis: they can't count.

I'm no good at math either, but with the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she's in, I've given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries.

So here we go: Let's assume Hillary beats expectations and wins Ohio tonight 55-45, Rhode Island 55-45, Texas, 53-47 and (this is highly improbable), ties in Vermont, 50-50.

Then it's on to Wyoming on Saturday, where, let's say, the momentum of today helps her win 53-47. Next Tuesday in Mississippi—where African-Americans play a big role in the Democratic primary—she shocks the political world by winning 52-48.

Then on April 22, the big one, Pennsylvania—and it's a Hillary blowout, 60-40, with Clinton picking up a whopping 32 delegates. She wins both of Guam's two delegates on May 30, and Indiana's proximity to Illinois does Obama no good on May 6, with the Hoosiers going for Hillary 55-45. The same day brings another huge upset in a heavily African-American state: enough North Carolina blacks desert Obama to give the state to Hillary 52-48, netting her five more delegates.

Suppose May 13 in West Virginia is no kinder to Obama, and he loses by double digits, netting Clinton two delegates. The identical 55-45 result on May 20 in Kentucky nets her five more. The same day brings Oregon, a classic Obama state. Oops! He loses there 52-48. Hillary wins by 10 in Montana and South Dakota on June 3, and primary season ends on June 7 in Puerto Rico with another big Viva Clinton! Hillary pulls off a 60-40 landslide, giving her another 11 delegates. She has enjoyed a string of 16 victories in a row over three months.

So at the end of regulation, Hillary's the nominee, right? Actually, this much-too-generous scenario (which doesn't even account for Texas's weird "pri-caucus" system, which favors Obama in delegate selection) still leaves the pledged-delegate score at 1,634 for Obama to 1,576 for Clinton. That's a 58-delegate lead.

Let's say the Democratic National Committee schedules do-overs in Florida and (heavily African-American) Michigan. Hillary wins big yet again. But the chances of her netting 56 delegates out of those two states would require two more huge margins. (Unfortunately the Slate calculator isn't helping me here.)

So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.

For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.

The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how Obama can't carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can't close the deal. How they've got the Big Mo now.

Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator.