US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

Team Brian GB

Even though the 'aye's have it' margin in UK opinion polling is much more substantial we have seen that same sort of pattern in the last five years where there is a sudden and inexorable shift in favour of legalisation. We implemented civil partnerships at the end of 2005, at the time there was a 1:1 split on same sex marriage but it is now in the 3:2 / 2:1 range in favour.

Team Brian GB

They have always done this, for years it seems to have been mandatory that any political speech of varying significance must include some reference to how privileged they feel to be American. A British politician would probably get laughed at if one did the same here, HIGNFY would have an absolute field day.

Team Brian GB

Not really, there will be many undecideds on matters such as this.

JustAFan

Nothing new there, same as always making sure you have the US Flag behind you in some way, whatever you keep campaing slogan/word is making sure you use it numerous times every speech, etc etc.

Just part of the game.

Excal

They're trendlines. The dots behind them are the actual polls. There was just one poll in 1999 and one in 2000. It's frankly not a very good data set for this. The trendlines should start around 2003/04.

sglowrider

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...y-in-poll.html

Team Brian GB

Good one Tony.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...s-Britain.html

Raoul

The Obama strategy is clear to attack and chip away at Romney's only perceived strength - his so called experience in the business sector that he claims will help him stabilize the economy. If he loses ground in that area, he's in serious trouble.

Plechazunga

Neck-and-neck in the polls of polls now. Fivethirtyeight.com has an article saying this is supported Obama's virtually evenly split approval ratings.

Once again it makes me wonder why the yanks on here are so optimistic about this election being a walkover for the Dems. Seems like wishful thinking to me, especially with Europe looking more and more likely to undergo some sort of massive pan-continental haemorrhage.

Team Brian GB

Most of the people making such comments are not actually American and are weighting their own judgements in favour of their beliefs as opposed to political realities.

Red Dreams

Europe concerns are real and if it gets a lot worse will effect our economy and the elections. Yet most Americans think the economy will get better...

The national polls closing are the Republicans coming home to support their eventual nominee.

This is more the numbers in red states coimg in for Romney.

The election will always be decided in the 'swing states'

Look at polls for Virginia,N carolina, Ohio, Florida and The Western Styates of Nevada, Colorado and Arizona.

I have intentionally left out Pennsylvania, N Mexico and some of teh smaller states.


With the exception of Arizona, Obam is leading in the remaining states.

Anything can happen of course...but for now no specifics have been debated. Romney must explain his support of the auto industry bankruptcy, 'self deportation' of Hispanics, support of middle class Americans gutting Ryan budget which he think 'marvellous' and his gutting and getting rid of planned parenthood for women.


If I had to put money on it...yep Obama will win handily and the Dems will hold teh Senate comfortably.

africanspur

I'm feeling the same Plech. Please not Mittens.

Red Dreams

Romney has to hope for EU tanking and pulling teh US Economy down with it...and he may then have his Pyrrhic victory

Team Brian GB

Don't bet against it, I don't know what is being said Stateside but the idea that Greece somehow leaves the Eurozone is gaining traction and acknowledgement as a possiblity amongst Europe's power brokers for the first time.

Raoul

Because national polls don't count for much in a system that's based on the electoral college. Its the polls in the key battleground states that matter.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

Obama already has over 250 electoral votes that are either solid or leaning blue, where as Romney only has about 170. On top of that, three states that are currently listed as neither blue nor red (Virginia, NC, and Ohio) as of very recently show Obama as being slightly ahead. In fact, Romney is only leading in Texas by 7 points, which is odd given that Republicans generally run away with Texas. The Republicans would probably have a heart attack if Obama started campaigning there and put their 38 electoral votes in play.

Red Dreams

As I said, this is possible. But before we in the US begin to suffer, Europe will be in utter turmoil.

That reality will not have been neglected by Germany and France. It is the nature of Europeans to bring things to the brink...to punish the so called indisciplined countries. But neither will cut their own noses to spite their own faces.

They will sort it out in the end.

Red Dreams

I saw that. Clearly the impact of Hispanic votes. GOP will carry that state this cycle....in 2016? My betting is it will be swing state.

Team Brian GB

It is the nature of these things to build up to some major precipice before anything is decided but to say things are getting jittery this side of the Atlantic is an understatement.

What I find amusing about this whole saga is that just six months ago Cameron was deemed to be persona non grata across the continent for vetoing the treaty on offer at the time, now a few months on large swathes of Europe are running from it.

Plechazunga

The electoral college is pretty irrelevant to the discussion. If Romney gets ahead of Obama nationwide, he'll probably be ahead in Pennsylvania and he'll definitely be ahead in Florida.

Jonathan Bernstein, a very good political scientist:

Don't Rely On The Electoral College

No, Really, Forget The Electoral College

Raoul

I find both of them a bit counterintuitive. Swings are national, but for a national swing to mean anything it has to be reflected in the states, which in an electoral college system specifically boils down to the battleground states. When Obama looks like he will lose Ohio, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, then Romney might have a chance. Right now the way things are stacking up, its looking like a complete repeat of 2008 - 100-200 point electoral win for Obama.

Red Dreams

Demographics, demographics, demographics.....

15 years ago...a president going into an election with unemployment numbers this high and the economy so sluggish would be certs to go out.

Two events for me, prove my theory correct.

The Wright issue in 2008 and the poll fluctuations after it...
Obama was getting destroyed everywhere...except the Western states...he was steady.

the 2010 senate elections out west....in particular Reid and the senator from Colorado.
The Hispanic population came in for the Democrats in a 'wave' election.

The Hispanics will make Obama the president for the second term.

The democrats would do well to listen to them very carefully from now on. It is not enough just to say the Republicans are the big bad party....the dems need to respond to their needs..the Dream Act will be a good start.

Red Dreams

in such time it is natural for countries to think every man for himself.

In the long run if Europeans are not united....I know when have they EVER been united?...as everyone hates each other for a million reasons over history...., it will make each country weaker.

If cool heads prevail, the EU will survive.

Cameron is wrong btw.

JustAFan

Well I for one am glad he came out in favor, but I am not naive enough to think he did so as a matter of doing what is right. It is very good timing in terms of how the nation is starting to feel on the issue. Also, he knows that the Repubs will jump on the issue and make it a focal point, continuing to make themselves look bad and keeping the focus on an issue of Obama's choosing. Control the dialogue, control the message, keep them reacting to you, not the other way around, smart campaigning.

Plechazunga

It's not really counterintuitive. The state polls at this stage just aren't that meaningful.

Nate Silver:

The only thing that looks a safe bet for me is that if the recovery gets a bit of spring back in its step, and assuming no major scandal or fuck-up, Obama is a big favourite. The economy tanks, he's probably fucked (again all else being equal, assuming no major war and that the GOP doesn't elect another cretin as veep). If the recovery stays lukewarm, it's anyone's.

Red Dreams

nothing that Nate says goes against what we have been saying.

Red Dreams

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

This are teh National polls

you can safely ignore the Rasmussen polls imo.

Raoul

I think the two biggest fears for Obama are exogenous shocks. If Europe tanks and a global recession ensues, it would suggest bad news for Obama, although I doubt there's enough time between now and November for the ripple effects of a Euro crash to have a discernable effect on the American economy to where the public would suddenly view Romney as a better option. Given that the economy is growing again, jobs are being added, and the unemployment rate is just about where it was when Obama took over, I'd say that things are not looking particularly bleak for Obama on that front. The second problem could be a terrorist attack where the aftermath is suddenly bungled by the administration, the third is an Israeli attack on Iran.

Raoul

If you look closely at the national polls trends, the points when Obama was leading by the most were when the likes of Gingrich, Cain, Santorum, and Perry were hammering on Romney during the debates. I agree that the national numbers will stablize leading up to and immediately following the conventions.

Red Dreams

you are right.

people really start paying attention after Labor Day. And the debates will be important too.

That is why the huge contrasts between the two men will be obvious.

I dont mean just their personalities..or the lack of one for Romney but their policies.

Excal

Rasmussen polls are actually pretty reliable so long as you adjust them about 9 points towards the Democratic candidate.

Red Dreams

correct. I was being pragmatic

De Selby

The campaign funding numbers are interesting.

While Obama had the backing of the major financial institutions during the last election, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup & Morgan Stanley are backing Romney in this one. They don't have a tendency to back no-hopers.

I suppose this is further punishment for Obama after he said government needed to get the greedy fat cats (or words to that effect) under control...of course, he very quickly recanted by saying he didn't begrudge wealthy bankers their money. He obviously knew who his paymasters were. Or former paymasters, rather.

Raoul

The last thing Romney's image needs is the spectre of all the major wall street firms being behind him. The Obama campaign would be all over the "Corporations are people my friend" narrative on that one.

Plechazunga

He's saying that there's not enough state polling to get reliable numbers at this stage. And he's saying what I was saying, which is that if either candidate has a 3-4 point lead nationally, he is 99% certain to carry the electoral college anyway.

Which adds up to: talk of the electoral college is pretty irrelevant at the moment, if you want to know who's more likely to win, look at the national numbers. At the moment it's Obama by a couple of points.

Which adds up to: at the moment it looks like a close election.

While he could do without the spectre, he'll be very happy with the lucre.

peterstorey

I think the 'bankers' party' is a losing ticket even in the US. JP Morgan have just reminded everybody what a basket case the industry is.

De Selby

I doubt it's something you'd want to broadcast, but people will know that both candidates have close ties (whether they want them or not) to major financial institutions. The American voting public aren't stupid, they're clued in- I posted a link to Harvard's Vanishing Voter project earlier in the thread which outlines their concerns about the state of democracy in the country. People know that the extraordinarily wealthy in the country are the ones who have the biggest influence over who gets elected and, once they're in office, their domestic and foreign policies. People know this, they just don't know how to go about changing it.

And it's not even a novel idea, Adam Smith spoke about it The Wealth Of Nations- the manufacturers and merchants of the 18th century in Britain (the masters of mankind, he called them) set policy for the government so it best served their interests. And it's the same today.

adexkola

That's been on the news for a while, surprised it hasn't been mentioned on here up to now.

Red Dreams

the republicans want to double down and remove whatever regulations there are....

amazing...

They will rape the country again if given another chance.

peterstorey

It's hardly newsworthy: casino banking with rogue trader racks up $Bn loss (again/repeat/encore/reprise/ one mo' time).

Ramshock

That GS Steel thing is going to hurt Romney big time. The Dems will like you say pick apart his only strength. If it wasnt for the stupidity of the collective american voting public this contest would be a no brainer with Obama clear winner but dont ever underestimate the power of stupidity.