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Will we ever have it so good again?

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Old 16th September 2008, 16:03   #1 (permalink)
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Will we ever have it so good again?
In my very limited understanding, the last 15 years of boom were fuelled, more than anything else, by the Chinese flooding the world with cheap stuff.

Does prosperity of that sort depend on finding more cheap developing-world labour to exploit?

Also, even if you don't believe the peak oil stuff, it seems unlikely that oil production is actually going to increase. With energy getting more and more expensive, and everything else depending on it to an extent, are we ever likely to see times like those again? Are our expectations of comfort unrealistic, dependent on a miracle-fuel which represents aeons of work done by geological processes, and will run out - and a process of globalisation which can't continue indefinitely?
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Old 16th September 2008, 16:14   #2 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Plechazunga View Post
In my very limited understanding, the last 15 years of boom were fuelled, more than anything else, by the Chinese flooding the world with cheap stuff.

Does prosperity of that sort depend on finding more cheap developing-world labour to exploit?

Also, even if you don't believe the peak oil stuff, it seems unlikely that oil production is actually going to increase. With energy getting more and more expensive, and everything else depending on it to an extent, are we ever likely to see times like those again? Are our expectations of comfort unrealistic, dependent on a miracle-fuel which represents aeons of work done by geological processes, and will run out - and a process of globalisation which can't continue indefinitely?
Considering all the aspects that you have mentioned plus, if I may add, the continuos increase of the world population, I think we'll never have it so good again.
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Old 16th September 2008, 16:15   #3 (permalink)
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Old 16th September 2008, 16:21   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Plechazunga View Post
In my very limited understanding, the last 15 years of boom were fuelled, more than anything else, by the Chinese flooding the world with cheap stuff.

Does prosperity of that sort depend on finding more cheap developing-world labour to exploit?

Also, even if you don't believe the peak oil stuff, it seems unlikely that oil production is actually going to increase. With energy getting more and more expensive, and everything else depending on it to an extent, are we ever likely to see times like those again? Are our expectations of comfort unrealistic, dependent on a miracle-fuel which represents aeons of work done by geological processes, and will run out - and a process of globalisation which can't continue indefinitely?
Yes.
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Old 16th September 2008, 16:25   #5 (permalink)
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Absolutely not. The global economic pie is being sliced and diced between many more countries. The west, in particular the US, have had it good for years but the last decade was all on borrowed money. Our wages are too high to manufacture and we import far too much.

The inevitable outcome is declining standards of living for the US, and Europe, for a couple of decade at least.
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Old 16th September 2008, 16:40   #6 (permalink)
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Will we ever have it so good again?
When you say we, do you mean Britain, Western Europe, the West or the world?

Because I think inequality will continue to increase, and there will be an elite of internationally mobile, rich, skilled people who will have it better than ever, while everyone else accepts some reduction to the current Western European standard of living.

The elite will consist of skilled people from every nation, and would include Chinese, Indians, Westerners, etc etc. The reduction in standard of living that I alluded to could very well mean that Western Europe and the USA stay stagnant for years or regress, while the average Indian's standard of living doubles.
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Old 16th September 2008, 17:19   #7 (permalink)
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Will we ever have it so good again?
Probably not. But a more intersting question for me is would people accept a small drop in standard of living if it meant a large increase in the standard of life for the poorer regions of the earth?

Again, I'm guessing probably not.
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Old 16th September 2008, 17:24   #8 (permalink)
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irritating that i'm just hitting my prime years when you older lot have fucked it up with your incessant borrowing and ineptitude when it comes to accountability.

bit of a bum deal to go through hellish poverty just when you start out on your own.
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Old 16th September 2008, 17:25   #9 (permalink)
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Probably not. But a more intersting question for me is would people accept a small drop in standard of living if it meant a large increase in the standard of life for the poorer regions of the earth?

Again, I'm guessing probably not.
My standard of living has dropped significantly since I started studying. I dont even own a PS3, how miserable is my life!
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Old 16th September 2008, 17:45   #10 (permalink)
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My view is that as some point in the future some new technology will turn out to be useful and transform our life. Think electricity, cars, automated manufacturing plants, computers etc ...

These are the changes which are impossible to predict, but will affect our life more than anything else.
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Old 16th September 2008, 17:59   #11 (permalink)
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Because I think inequality will continue to increase, and there will be an elite of internationally mobile, rich, skilled people who will have it better than ever, while everyone else accepts some reduction to the current Western European standard of living..
I used to think there was an inevitability about equalization of wealth over the long term but I think your scenario is possibly more likely. I think the creation of robber barons like Putin and co is another very dangerous trend.
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Old 16th September 2008, 18:10   #12 (permalink)
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Western countries can not compete with cheap labour, R&D is the way and creating the products to sell. Having call-centres and shared service centres in not a sustainable solution - you need to create, simple as. Then if the actual manufacturing of the product takes place in India or China is of lesser importance.
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Old 16th September 2008, 18:12   #13 (permalink)
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Of course we will, if you work hard there are always oppurtunities
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Old 16th September 2008, 18:15   #14 (permalink)
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I used to think there was an inevitability about equalization of wealth over the long term but I think your scenario is possibly more likely. I think the creation of robber barons like Putin and co is another very dangerous trend.
Agreed. The only way to get into the elite would be to accumulate assets, either in the future or in the present. I could see a scenario where young, talented people live a great lifestyle funded by being compensated against their future wealth creation, but it's more likely that you need to be superrich to start with. So you take the wealth from others, it's faster.

Socialists will just have to be content with the equalisation of poverty at the lower end I suppose. Although it won't be the current definition of poverty of course. In that sense a lot of people will be better off. No one will have to survive on $1.25 a day, hopefully.
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Old 16th September 2008, 18:20   #15 (permalink)
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a revolution is coming. I am going to focus on being armed to the teeth so I can take my wealth when the time comes.
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Old 16th September 2008, 18:21   #16 (permalink)
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Absolutely not. The global economic pie is being sliced and diced between many more countries. The west, in particular the US, have had it good for years but the last decade was all on borrowed money. Our wages are too high to manufacture and we import far too much.

The inevitable outcome is declining standards of living for the US, and Europe, for a couple of decade at least.
These things always work in cycles - standard of living in the US are high because yanks are amongst the most productive and hard-workin people in the world. That's not going to change anytime soon.
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Old 16th September 2008, 18:22   #17 (permalink)
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I'm going to invent a gun that fires squirrels. In this way I'll claw my way into the elite.
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Old 16th September 2008, 18:24   #18 (permalink)
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I'm going to invent a gun that fires squirrels. In this way I'll claw my way into the elite.
a baby squirrel was chasing me and my wife last week. my hunting dog was going crazy while I held her back. I've never heard cries like that in my life (from my dog...i.e. let me kill please!), and this little thing just kept creeping closer and closer making strange grunts. Terrifying it was.
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Old 16th September 2008, 18:32   #19 (permalink)
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Old 16th September 2008, 18:34   #20 (permalink)
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or Chorley Park for that matter.
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Old 16th September 2008, 18:35   #21 (permalink)
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Old 16th September 2008, 18:40   #22 (permalink)
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These things always work in cycles - standard of living in the US are high because yanks are amongst the most productive and hard-workin people in the world. That's not going to change anytime soon.
Its already changing. Eight straight years of wages not keeping pace with inflation. I think that only happened twice in the previous 30+ years. And there is absolutely no chance that reversal will end anytime soon.
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Old 16th September 2008, 19:01   #23 (permalink)
 
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Sounds like I've got loads to look forward to when I'm done with uni, which is expensive enough as it is.

At least it's only £93 a week to live at uni, then £120 for the privelege of using the internet, oh yeah and the £3145 tuition fees. Feck.
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Old 16th September 2008, 19:15   #24 (permalink)
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I don't really know what Spin's on about, but it sounded clever, so I'm going to side with his view on this one.

Plus, you don't argue with a man who has a squirrel gun
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Old 16th September 2008, 21:01   #25 (permalink)
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Old 16th September 2008, 21:23   #26 (permalink)
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Old 16th September 2008, 21:41   #27 (permalink)
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Its already changing. Eight straight years of wages not keeping pace with inflation. I think that only happened twice in the previous 30+ years. And there is absolutely no chance that reversal will end anytime soon.
That would be over 50% of the time then. Or more. Then again my maths is shite.
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Old 16th September 2008, 21:44   #28 (permalink)
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That would be over 50% of the time then. Or more. Then again my maths is shite.
I meant TWO years in the last thirty. Not two times eight years.
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Old 16th September 2008, 21:46   #29 (permalink)
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Everybody keeps mentioning I'm fucked.

I would rather know what I can do to sort my self out for the future.

How do I go about making a squirrel gun?
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Old 16th September 2008, 21:47   #30 (permalink)
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I meant TWO years in the last thirty. Not two times eight years.
Sorry, blame the beer. My lot just agreed a 3 year deal at half a percent above inflation, which I thought was a bit shit, but then looking around it might not be so bad.
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Old 16th September 2008, 21:49   #31 (permalink)
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Everybody keeps mentioning I'm fucked.

I would rather know what I can do to sort my self out for the future.

How do I go about making a squirrel gun?
Squirrel-murderers will have Berbatov to deal with. They may be tree-rats but they're our tree rats. Be aware that they do piss in your cold water tanks, though.
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