4 League titles in a row

spinoza · 4th August 2009, 17:27

If Liverpool sell Alonso to Real and don't buy anyone, they're fucked even more than we are. Arsenal have few players left, let alone fit, good players.

It's Chelsea's year.

rednev · 4th August 2009, 17:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by spinoza

If Liverpool sell Alonso to Real and don't buy anyone, they're fucked even more than we are. Arsenal have few players left, let alone fit, good players.

It's Chelsea's year.

Or our's.

I agree about Liverpool being more fucked than we are, though. Their squad wasn't exactly strong last season (they punched well above their weight), so they can't afford it to be weakened. Our squad last season was strong enough to be weakened this summer, so we will hopefully cope. Chelsea are the only side strong enough to even be considered ahead of us in the odds.

I would put the chances of each team roughly at:

United - 42%
Chelsea - 38%
Arsenal - 10%
Liverpool - 10%

I think we have a slight edge on Chelsea simply because Ferguson is our manager and nobody knows how to win titles like he does. And also the fact that we have the strongest defense in the league is a massive positive.

eric le roi · 4th August 2009, 17:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by Franq

ps. more statistics: its just like throwing a coin: you have a 50% chance you'll get heads... but over the course of 10 throws, it would be quite amazing if you'd managed to get heads 10 times in a row....

Not this bullshit again.

Don't talk about statistics / chance if you don't understand it.

Winning the league is not an outcome with a 50% chance of happening. If the league had only two teams in it then you could argue that it did, but you'd still be wrong.

On the other hand, just because the league has 20 teams in it doesn't mean that United have only a 5% chance of winning it. That would only be true if the winners were selected at random by choosing a number out of a hat rather than actually playing 38 matches over the course of 9 months with all the variables and possibilities that brings.

So many other factors need to be considered. It is not analogous to tossing a coin.

Beevio · 4th August 2009, 17:51

I've been pondering the thought of winning a 4th title in a row.

histroically it's unlikely, and as in the past we could be entering a transition season (Best player leaves along with an influential striker, a number of other key players hit twighlight years while more youth is pushed forward etc.). But the fact is we are still pretty strong and as mentioned our defense is unchanged and should still be rock solid, while we still also have some of the best attacking talent in the country.

More importantly for me right now, chelsea, arsenal and liverpool all haven't really strengthened (yet) so we still have a really good shot at it.

If we did do it, for me it would be up there alongside the treble (maybe not quite as historic) it would be an amazing achievement.

Plechazunga · 4th August 2009, 19:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by rednev

I don't think that's correct, unless the odds were cut dramatically.

Unless I've got the maths horribly wrong.....If a team is 4/1 to win the title it would mean in theory they would win 25 titles in 100 years. If the season after winning a title the odds were cut to 3/1, it would result in 8 successes out of the 25 goes they get at a double. Take away 8 titles from the 25 and it would mean they would have won a single title on 17 occasions and a double on 8 occasions (33 titles in total). This is ignoring the possibilty of winning 3 or 4 titles in a row.

Of course I am just using the 25% cut in odds the following season as an example, I was thinking along the lines of maybe a 2-5% cut. So singles would outweigh doubles even more than in my example..which is the case in reality.

Feck, you're right of course. Rubbish logic from yours tuly there.

I'm still not sure I agree with the easier the second time thing, mind. Against the added confidence and authority factor, as well as a bit more income, you'd have to factor things like the increasing difficulty of motivating your players and the 'every match is someone's cup final' effect.

It should be possible to figure out if there's an effect one way or the other, if anyone can be arsed to do a regression analysis or whatever it's called.

Dr. Dwayne · 4th August 2009, 19:24

Apparently the math will tell you that the odds of winning a fourth league title on the trot are the same as winning any league title.

Suedesi · 4th August 2009, 19:44

It won't be done. Chelsea or Liverpool to win it this year.

kouroux · 4th August 2009, 19:44

I'd love it to happen but I just can't see this United team winning the PL for the 4th time in a row.I just cannot picture it

December_16 · 4th August 2009, 19:46

I have a funny feeling this time next year, we'll be talking about how impossible it is to win 5 in a row.

Gazza · 4th August 2009, 20:08

If we were to win 4 in a row in this era it would be pretty amazing. 3 was incredible enough.

Kraftwerker · 4th August 2009, 20:12

Motivation will be our main stumbling block, but I hope our players will want to prove a point, due to people writing us off.

Gazza · 4th August 2009, 20:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kraftwerker

Motivation will be our main stumbling block, but I hope our players will want to prove a point, due to people writing us off.

Yeah, I think there are a lot of individuals in our squad with points to prove.

gaffs · 4th August 2009, 20:16

It would be a great achievement.

Anderson Searl · 4th August 2009, 21:23

I think it would rank:

1999 Treble
1968 European Cup
2007-2010 4 In a row

If that makes any sense

Sam · 5th August 2009, 00:45

Would be incredible. I mean when you actually think about it, 4 titles in a row, in the strongest league in the world. Thats just crazy. It really is. Especially when you think that a few years ago we were fighting for 3rd spot, you woulda laughed if someone had said we'd be in this position now.

Kinky Melinky · 5th August 2009, 00:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by blythy

4 in a row. 19-18. Owen to get a medal before Gerrard & Carragher.

It's do-able!

MancFanFromManc · 5th August 2009, 00:51

Domestically it'd be a monster achievement. One that probably wont be appreciated (properly) for a number of years. To do it with all the spending going on would be fabulous.

I hail from the 80s era of NO titles, so the Prem will always be the bread n butter rascal for me. Love the ECL but that's the icing imo

Kinky Melinky · 5th August 2009, 00:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by rednev

I don't buy this 'can't be done' talk. If anything, it's easier for defending champions to go on and win it again. The defending Champions are always in the title race right 'til the end. We haven't weakened as much as some suggest. Defensively, we're just as strong.

Yeah I'm with rednev on this one. I'm going into this season optimistic. We're strong at the back, and who knows what sort of parterships will gel. I think some of us are going to be quite surprised at the sort of improvement of certain players.

Kinky Melinky · 5th August 2009, 00:59

I just want to add that just because Liverpool had a cracking last season and ended strong does not mean they will carry this form into the new season. It's daft to think this is the case. Liverpool cold botch up their first 4 games, drawing 3 and losing 1. This also stands for United.

I just think that the form of last season means nothing once the first game starts, and it's all about the attitude of the players and their desire to win

kietotheworld · 5th August 2009, 01:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sam#1

Would be incredible. I mean when you actually think about it, 4 titles in a row, in the strongest league in the world. Thats just crazy. It really is. Especially when you think that a few years ago we were fighting for 3rd spot, you woulda laughed if someone had said we'd be in this position now.

We've never really been fighting for 3rd spot in the Premier League, we've always been more likely to come 2nd than 4th.

bbest · 5th August 2009, 01:09

Obviously, we need goals.

Lailiani · 5th August 2009, 01:12

Chelsea
United
Liverpool
Arsenal

Chelsea had a bit of a nightmare last season and this is why they have only finished third last season. They have the best team and I fully expect them to reach their old heights.

United have a great squad, but we've lost Ronaldo and Tevez and we haven't really replaced Ronaldo. I expect us to challenge for the title, but I don't think we'll win it. The Premier League is a very competitive league and even at our best, we wouldn't have won it easily. And we are quite clearly not at our best right now.

Liverpool are overrated. People say that we should fear them this season because Torres was often injured last season and yet the managed to finish second. But they forget that Liverpool took advantage of our (at times) woeful form and Chelsea's problems. And it's not like Chelsea and us didn't have to cope with injured players.

Arsenal haven't really improved. They lost Toure, they lost Adebayor. But Arshavin will start this season from the beginning, Vermaelen might turn out a good player and their full-backs might reach their best again. Plus, they were unlucky to lose Fabregas to injury last season so I think we'll see a better Fabregas this season.

peterstorey · 5th August 2009, 02:05

Chelsea have been getting steadily worse for three years (and haven't won a major trophy in that time) I don't see any reason for a miracle recovery particularly if you factor in a new manager with no PL experience.

Lailiani · 5th August 2009, 02:09

I didn't like Ancelotti's Milan last year. But apart from that he's a brilliant manager, his CL record speaks for itself. Chelsea might not have become better (although they might buy some high-profile players) but the same goes for the other clubs.

peterstorey · 5th August 2009, 02:19

We're better, quite a lot better, with Arshavin, Eduardo and Rosicky for a start.

surf · 5th August 2009, 02:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by peterstorey

Chelsea have been getting steadily worse for three years (and haven't won a major trophy in that time) I don't see any reason for a miracle recovery particularly if you factor in a new manager with no PL experience.

So who is your tip for the top?

Lailiani · 5th August 2009, 02:22

You can't see why I left Eduardo and Rosicky out?

peterstorey · 5th August 2009, 02:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by surf

So who is your tip for the top?

I think we'll win it: Chelsea are the worst of the top 4 IMO, Liverpool will fall back from last year and I think you won't quite have the appetite to win it again.

Tumbling-Dice · 5th August 2009, 02:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by peterstorey

I think you won't quite have the appetite to win it again.

Yea, cause it's shit winning the league innit.

surf · 5th August 2009, 02:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by peterstorey

I think we'll win it: Chelsea are the worst of the top 4 IMO, Liverpool will fall back from last year and I think you won't quite have the appetite to win it again.

That would need a big improvement from the 72 points last season. You are the most unpredictable team of the top 4, which gives you a fighting chance.

Tumbling-Dice · 5th August 2009, 02:49

The thing in Arsenal's favour is they won't have the trips up to Boro and Newcastle.

But never fear they'll find somewhere else up north to bottle it on a cold winter's night.

Lailiani · 5th August 2009, 02:55

Arsenal won't finish first and they won't finish second. I have nothing against Wenger and I like Arsenal's football but there are simply not consistent, good and experienced enough to win the league. Fortunately, football has always an unpredictability factor. However, there are some things you can predict with common sense. Bolton won't finish in the Top 4. Arsenal won't win the league.

FlawlessThaw · 5th August 2009, 03:12

If Arsenal can get a partner for Fabregas then peterstorey's prediction won't look as foolish as a lot of people make out.

Anduin · 5th August 2009, 05:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by December_16

I have a funny feeling this time next year, we'll be talking about how impossible it is to win 5 in a row.

Five in a row. Sounds like dream land to me.
I'd be amazed if we win the league this year. Our settled defence, fantastic youth prospects and (hopefully) the development of some soon-to-be key players should give us a decent shot at the title again though. I guess Chelsea will be better than last year, they've got Essien back for the whole campaign and Drogba seems to care again, but I'm still not convinced Ancelotti is a very good manager when it comes to the league.

Skholesy · 5th August 2009, 05:53

Would be sweet to get the fourth, and at the same time, number 19.

RedDevilCanuck · 5th August 2009, 06:12

I would say that it is impossible but this year will be different.

First, Fergie will light a fire under the squad as we are 1 title away from fully knocking Liverpool off their perch - this is huge.

Second, we have lost the world's best player and we will be hungry to show the league that we weren't a one man team over the last three years (even if we do not win the league, there is no way we were a one man team with Ronaldo)

Third, Berbatov will have a full pre season and will definately want to imporve on last year.

Fourth, we have many young players that want to break into the first team with a couple of our vetarans entering their final years.

Fifth, its a World Cup year and we have many, many internationals that will be motivated to perform to their highest capabilities to make the first teams for their respective countries.

And finally, we have Wayne Rooney,Rio Ferdinand and a poaching striker that we have missed since Ruud left. People shouldn't underestimate how good Owen is and his goal scoring insticts.

Raoul · 5th August 2009, 06:13

4 in a row would be more than Chelsea have ever won.

JezChan · 5th August 2009, 09:17

The rest of the squad will step up and show that Manchester United will not simply fall over following the departures of Ronaldo and Tevez. We'll shut up all our critics once and for all!

All 3 United · 5th August 2009, 09:45

I wish I could positively say (like I did last year) we will win it but I can't I just don't think our midfield is good enough (especially without Hargreaves).

StringerBell · 5th August 2009, 09:50

We can definitely win the league this season. It's an exciting thought of winning four in a row.

The loss of two of our best players should galvanise the current squad and reduce complacency. I believe the key to us winning the league will be:

1. The midfield chipping in with more goals
2. Defence maintaining their record from the past two years. Wes coming back should help greatly.
3. This man

This season is going to tell us whether he will ever get to the level we all thought he would reach. To put in bluntly, we are going very reliant on Wayne this season, if he doesn't play to his best, we won't win the league.

RedCafe.net

The Leading Manchester United Forum

Member's Login

4 League titles in a row

Latest Forum Topics

Jump to Forum

Not yet registered?

4th August 2009, 17:27	#41 (permalink)
spinoza Paz's ion Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: Walking in a whisky wonderland. Posts: 24,186	If Liverpool sell Alonso to Real and don't buy anyone, they're fucked even more than we are. Arsenal have few players left, let alone fit, good players. It's Chelsea's year.

4th August 2009, 17:51	#44 (permalink)
Beevio Youth Team Player Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Manchester la la la Posts: 360	I've been pondering the thought of winning a 4th title in a row. histroically it's unlikely, and as in the past we could be entering a transition season (Best player leaves along with an influential striker, a number of other key players hit twighlight years while more youth is pushed forward etc.). But the fact is we are still pretty strong and as mentioned our defense is unchanged and should still be rock solid, while we still also have some of the best attacking talent in the country. More importantly for me right now, chelsea, arsenal and liverpool all haven't really strengthened (yet) so we still have a really good shot at it. If we did do it, for me it would be up there alongside the treble (maybe not quite as historic) it would be an amazing achievement.

4th August 2009, 19:24	#46 (permalink)
Dr. Dwayne Slacker Join Date: May 2006 Location: Back where I don't belong Posts: 46,404	Apparently the math will tell you that the odds of winning a fourth league title on the trot are the same as winning any league title.

4th August 2009, 19:44	#47 (permalink)
Suedesi First Team Regular Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Manhattan Posts: 11,998	It won't be done. Chelsea or Liverpool to win it this year.

4th August 2009, 19:44	#48 (permalink)
kouroux First Team Regular Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Djibouti (La terre des braves) Posts: 25,548	I'd love it to happen but I just can't see this United team winning the PL for the 4th time in a row.I just cannot picture it

4th August 2009, 19:46	#49 (permalink)
December_16 Arse wiper and cock washer Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Maybe next May, maybe the one after or the one after that Posts: 5,771	I have a funny feeling this time next year, we'll be talking about how impossible it is to win 5 in a row.

4th August 2009, 20:08	#50 (permalink)
Gazza Magic Carpet Pilot Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: "some place faaar away... yes, that'll do" Posts: 27,084	If we were to win 4 in a row in this era it would be pretty amazing. 3 was incredible enough.

4th August 2009, 20:12	#51 (permalink)
Kraftwerker Formerly RedAddict Join Date: May 2008 Location: We can't stop here. This is bat country. Posts: 9,120	Motivation will be our main stumbling block, but I hope our players will want to prove a point, due to people writing us off.

4th August 2009, 20:16	#53 (permalink)
gaffs First Team Sub Join Date: May 2007 Location: Moscow 08, Rome 09, London 11 Posts: 9,994	It would be a great achievement.

4th August 2009, 21:23	#54 (permalink)
Anderson Searl Reserve Team Player Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: :lol: Posts: 16,446	I think it would rank: 1999 Treble 1968 European Cup 2007-2010 4 In a row If that makes any sense

5th August 2009, 00:45	#55 (permalink)
Sam First Team Regular Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: 'I'm a genius muthafuckin' voice of a generation' Posts: 18,546	Would be incredible. I mean when you actually think about it, 4 titles in a row, in the strongest league in the world. Thats just crazy. It really is. Especially when you think that a few years ago we were fighting for 3rd spot, you woulda laughed if someone had said we'd be in this position now.

5th August 2009, 00:51	#57 (permalink)
MancFanFromManc Red Rascal Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Was in the Nou Camp, and was in Moscow... Anyone for Munich? Posts: 6,602	Domestically it'd be a monster achievement. One that probably wont be appreciated (properly) for a number of years. To do it with all the spending going on would be fabulous. I hail from the 80s era of NO titles, so the Prem will always be the bread n butter rascal for me. Love the ECL but that's the icing imo

5th August 2009, 00:59	#59 (permalink)
Kinky Melinky concerned about the dermatitis Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: London Posts: 23,425	I just want to add that just because Liverpool had a cracking last season and ended strong does not mean they will carry this form into the new season. It's daft to think this is the case. Liverpool cold botch up their first 4 games, drawing 3 and losing 1. This also stands for United. I just think that the form of last season means nothing once the first game starts, and it's all about the attitude of the players and their desire to win

5th August 2009, 01:09	#61 (permalink)
bbest The Caf's worst songwriter Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: .................... Posts: 8,885	Obviously, we need goals.

5th August 2009, 01:12	#62 (permalink)
Lailiani (Sadly not) Banned Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: He plays on the left, he plays on the right, that boy Nani makes England look shite! Posts: 3,835	Chelsea United Liverpool Arsenal Chelsea had a bit of a nightmare last season and this is why they have only finished third last season. They have the best team and I fully expect them to reach their old heights. United have a great squad, but we've lost Ronaldo and Tevez and we haven't really replaced Ronaldo. I expect us to challenge for the title, but I don't think we'll win it. The Premier League is a very competitive league and even at our best, we wouldn't have won it easily. And we are quite clearly not at our best right now. Liverpool are overrated. People say that we should fear them this season because Torres was often injured last season and yet the managed to finish second. But they forget that Liverpool took advantage of our (at times) woeful form and Chelsea's problems. And it's not like Chelsea and us didn't have to cope with injured players. Arsenal haven't really improved. They lost Toure, they lost Adebayor. But Arshavin will start this season from the beginning, Vermaelen might turn out a good player and their full-backs might reach their best again. Plus, they were unlucky to lose Fabregas to injury last season so I think we'll see a better Fabregas this season.

5th August 2009, 02:05	#63 (permalink)
peterstorey Bitter Arse hole Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Happy those, who can remain at Highbury! Posts: 26,001	Chelsea have been getting steadily worse for three years (and haven't won a major trophy in that time) I don't see any reason for a miracle recovery particularly if you factor in a new manager with no PL experience.

5th August 2009, 02:09	#64 (permalink)
Lailiani (Sadly not) Banned Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: He plays on the left, he plays on the right, that boy Nani makes England look shite! Posts: 3,835	I didn't like Ancelotti's Milan last year. But apart from that he's a brilliant manager, his CL record speaks for itself. Chelsea might not have become better (although they might buy some high-profile players) but the same goes for the other clubs.

5th August 2009, 02:19	#65 (permalink)
peterstorey Bitter Arse hole Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Happy those, who can remain at Highbury! Posts: 26,001	We're better, quite a lot better, with Arshavin, Eduardo and Rosicky for a start.

5th August 2009, 02:22	#67 (permalink)
Lailiani (Sadly not) Banned Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: He plays on the left, he plays on the right, that boy Nani makes England look shite! Posts: 3,835	You can't see why I left Eduardo and Rosicky out?

5th August 2009, 02:49	#71 (permalink)
Tumbling-Dice Caf Nostradamus Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Roy Keane has five kids, partly because of his Irish Catholic background, and partly because someone told him that Patrick Vieira has four. Posts: 18,820	The thing in Arsenal's favour is they won't have the trips up to Boro and Newcastle. But never fear they'll find somewhere else up north to bottle it on a cold winter's night.

5th August 2009, 02:55	#72 (permalink)
Lailiani (Sadly not) Banned Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: He plays on the left, he plays on the right, that boy Nani makes England look shite! Posts: 3,835	Arsenal won't finish first and they won't finish second. I have nothing against Wenger and I like Arsenal's football but there are simply not consistent, good and experienced enough to win the league. Fortunately, football has always an unpredictability factor. However, there are some things you can predict with common sense. Bolton won't finish in the Top 4. Arsenal won't win the league.

5th August 2009, 03:12	#73 (permalink)
FlawlessThaw most 'know it all' poster Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: London Posts: 19,271	If Arsenal can get a partner for Fabregas then peterstorey's prediction won't look as foolish as a lot of people make out.

5th August 2009, 05:53	#75 (permalink)
Skholesy Reserve Team Player Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: 20-5....Because 20 is the new 18. Posts: 2,947	Would be sweet to get the fourth, and at the same time, number 19.

5th August 2009, 06:12	#76 (permalink)
RedDevilCanuck Quite dreamy - blue eyes, blond hair, tanned skin Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: The GTA Posts: 3,185	I would say that it is impossible but this year will be different. First, Fergie will light a fire under the squad as we are 1 title away from fully knocking Liverpool off their perch - this is huge. Second, we have lost the world's best player and we will be hungry to show the league that we weren't a one man team over the last three years (even if we do not win the league, there is no way we were a one man team with Ronaldo) Third, Berbatov will have a full pre season and will definately want to imporve on last year. Fourth, we have many young players that want to break into the first team with a couple of our vetarans entering their final years. Fifth, its a World Cup year and we have many, many internationals that will be motivated to perform to their highest capabilities to make the first teams for their respective countries. And finally, we have Wayne Rooney,Rio Ferdinand and a poaching striker that we have missed since Ruud left. People shouldn't underestimate how good Owen is and his goal scoring insticts.

5th August 2009, 06:13	#77 (permalink)
Raoul Administrator Join Date: Aug 1999 Location: Budapest Posts: 39,793	4 in a row would be more than Chelsea have ever won.

5th August 2009, 09:17	#78 (permalink)
JezChan Reserve Team Player Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Melbourne, Australia Posts: 3,152	The rest of the squad will step up and show that Manchester United will not simply fall over following the departures of Ronaldo and Tevez. We'll shut up all our critics once and for all!

5th August 2009, 09:45	#79 (permalink)
All 3 United Reserve Team Player Join Date: Jun 2001 Location: Manchester Posts: 2,748	I wish I could positively say (like I did last year) we will win it but I can't I just don't think our midfield is good enough (especially without Hargreaves).

5th August 2009, 09:50	#80 (permalink)
StringerBell Reserve Team Player Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: There is no self Posts: 751	We can definitely win the league this season. It's an exciting thought of winning four in a row. The loss of two of our best players should galvanise the current squad and reduce complacency. I believe the key to us winning the league will be: 1. The midfield chipping in with more goals 2. Defence maintaining their record from the past two years. Wes coming back should help greatly. 3. This man This season is going to tell us whether he will ever get to the level we all thought he would reach. To put in bluntly, we are going very reliant on Wayne this season, if he doesn't play to his best, we won't win the league.