ALL issues relating to the bond issue and club finances

TheMancRedDevil

Hmm... £280million or thereabouts is coming in. That much is fact (and is therefore what we, or at least the Glazers, have to "play with") but I appreciate that some prefer to use the £100million EBITDA figure.

The debts can be serviced and the wages paid along with all the other bills any football club has and we still have money left over.

You're also making the mistake of counting what the Glazers can take twice. They can take £25million in dividends. They can't take £25million dividends and THEN take some more to pay off their PIKs (EDIT: there is, of course, the one-off £70million entitlement provided by the Bond Issue)

They either use their £25million divs to pay off the PIKs or find the money from elsewhere.

EDIT: If you want the definition of unviable. Go and check on how much profit Manchester City and Chelsea made this year!

andersred

Looking at the long-term viability, what is interesting is how even in these days of a "global football industry" clubs like United are so financially reliant on doing well on the pitch.

Look at the CL TV money for last season. We earned £14m more than Liverpool because:

a) We got to the Qs, they didn't make it out of the group stage
b) We won our domestic league the previous year and they came 2nd.

Those are pretty fine margins worth 14% of our EBITDA.

Matchday income at United last season will probably be slightly down on 2008/09, purely because we played two fewer home games (inc a CL semi). Those two games are equivalent to a quarter of our annual transfer budget.

Like GCHQ says, United won't go bust, but heaven help us if in a post Fergie world we have a couple of mid-table seasons.

TheMancRedDevil

Every silver lining has a grey cloud eh, Anders?

The rest of what you're saying there is a bit "No shit, Sherlock" with a smattering of the usual scaremongering to be honest.

It has long been established that doing everything in their power to ensure that we remain at the top end of football is crucial to the Glazers' business-plan. Only a bunch of numpties would have suggested otherwise.

How are your mates doing by the way? They've been unusually quiet of late.

robertsoncrusoe

I remember when Sir Matt retired- we were all set for more european cups and we had a hand picked replacement- what happened?....... 26 years in the wilderness that's what. If that happens again I'll still be here but so will only about 8 of you bastards.

datura

They are completely irrelevant though as they are not run as businesses.

TheMancRedDevil

Oh, yeah. The two clubs above us in the league are completely irrelevant...

When people worry about our future success, it is the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea who, were it not for the FFP Regs, would provide our most serious threat.

However, they will have to drastically improve on their financial performance over the next few years or they'll be completely stuffed - City in particular.

datura

Can you write a reply without a stupid smiley when someone disagrees with you?

You are comparing our financial results with theirs when they are not comparable. It makes no sense. They have billionaire owners who are financing them and can just write off the debt at a whim, losses/profits are irrelevant to them.

Transfer United Till I Die

They'll have to be when the new Uefa regs kick in. What they are doing now is unsustainable.

datura

That wasn't the point. I assume you mean the FIFA Fairplay?

I'm still unsure of how enforceable it will be, but that has been discussed in another thread and isn't relevant here.

TheMancRedDevil

Can you actually read what I have written before responding?

The fact is, if the FFP Regs are implemented and succeed in doing what they are intended to do, these clubs will HAVE to be run as a business. The whole point of the FFP Regs is to get clubs to live within their means.

This means that a billionaire owner will be rendered practically impotent.

We are currently living within our means and the situation is only likely to get better as time goes by because the impact of the debt is fixed whilst revenues look more likely to go up rather than down.

TheMancRedDevil

It is relevant because Anders just came along and pointed out how stuffed we might be if we had a couple of "mid-table seasons".

Which clubs are in a better situation to fill ten league places above us?

Even if we don't take it to Anders' level of nonsense, what if we finished fifth for a couple of seasons? Which four teams are better equipped than us?

Off the top of my head, the only one is Arsenal. I am not entirely sure about the situations with Spurs and Villa.

So. Is the "if we don't achieve success, we're doomed" argument based on foundations which are realistic or is it based on a pile of doom-mongering crap from an expert in the field?

datura

Excellent, another stupid smiley.

I did read your post and there was no reference to the FFP regulations in it, or the post you were responding too, hence why I commented. Maybe you should have made yourself a little clearer by actually referring to them in your post as I am not psychic to your intentions.

As I also said, discussing the FFPs in relation to other clubs should be done in the proper thread in the football forum.

datura

You appear to have missed the point, which is that they are not run the same way as us so any comparisons financially are meaningless and just trying to put some positive spin on our situation (ie the opposite of what you are accusing Anders of).

He didn't say we were 'doomed'. All he highlighted is how a decline in performance on the pitch could possibly hit our finances.

TheMancRedDevil

I think you must have had a hard day or something datura.

The post of mine you quoted (scroll up and read it) actually said:-

"When people worry about our future success, it is the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea who, were it not for the FFP Regs, would provide our most serious threat."

In other words, yes, if things carried on as they are and Mansour and Abramovich are able to give their managers £100-200million per season to spend on players, the future would look pretty bleak. Not just for us but football as a whole, I would suggest - but that's definitely another tangent.

I am not really discussing the FFPs, merely trying to respond to Anders' new slant of "we'd be fucked if we won nowt" line and trying to establish who, exactly, will be standing in our way to the silverware that would give rise to such a scenario in the coming years.

datura

No, the initial post I responded to was:

Crerand Legend

Out of respct to GB's request I wont respond to this post

TheMancRedDevil

Ok. Fair enough but I thought that there had been sufficient posts between that one and the one where you went on about not being a mind-reader or something for you to understand why I specifically mentioned Chelsea and City and why their financial situation is relevant to us and our future chances of remaining competitive.

I can't actually believe that I have had to spell it out to you, to be honest. You were giving me accountancy lessons last night.

datura

You can't say that we will maintain our current level of performance just because of the effect of the FFP regs on 2 sides (which at the moment no one knows how they will affect teams). It's a rather tenuous argument at best.

Football is generally cyclical in nature and it is unlikely that we will maintain the same level of success as we've enjoyed for an extended period, particularly given the imminent retirement of our best manager of all time and some key players.

Julian Denny

It's key isn't it. Keeping revenues going at recent historic levels with costs contained depsite not being able to keep the same level of success on the pitch. Arsenal seem to have achieved it. I think it's all about keeping the expectation there, qualifying for the ECL, even if trophies aren't an end product and playing entertaining and generally attractive football. I'm not sure we can do that with the current set up.

TheMancRedDevil

The FFP Regs are designed to get football teams only spending what they earn and remove the effect of billionaire sugar-daddies. That much we do know. How it will work in practice, remains to be seen. But, unless we ourselves had a billionaire sugar-daddy with as much or more money than Mansour (who I believe is closer to being a dollar trillionaire!) then everything being argued at the moment would still apply under any ownership regime we might have at United, wouldn't it?

If the FFP Regs do prove to be a success then it provides a more level playing field and the club that can bring in the most money has as good a chance of being competitive as anyone, doesn't it?

FFP Regs or no FFP Regs, I think there'd have to be a fuck up of epic proportions to end up mid-table as Anders was suggesting.

I hear what you're saying about football being cyclical and it being unlikely that we will maintain the success for an extended period and every year for the last twenty years or so, I have gone into the season with a fear that this might be the season when the wheels finally fall off but it has yet to happen.

Of course, we have Fergie's retirement on the horizon and this is the biggest threat to our wheels but we can only hope that whoever comes in doesn't end up doing a Wilf McGuinness and we have to have some faith that we will bring in a top-class manager and that the squad Fergie leaves behind will be strong enough to give the new man every chance of getting off to a good start in his new job. I don't see why it is necessarily going to mean a downturn in our fortunes.

When it comes to the future - there's always more than one way of viewing it and my glass is always half-full.

ralphie88

Two and sixpence?

topper

wow thats much better than the Plc - god bless Uncle Malc

ralphie88

You've been drinking again haven't you topper. Sangria?

topper

yep and been employing my paint spray cans on the walls of my local massive fan saying I think Uncle Mal is wunnerful - haven't done the toms yet - he's hiding but I'll get the cnut - the Spaniards do some luverly toms ... what about you Ralphie whats the news on the United Underground - still manning the barricades

TheMancRedDevil

I notice on the MUST websites the Red Knights have been in great voice recently with a quote that should be right up your street ralphie...

Is it just me or does the last part of that really let the first bit down quite badly?

ralphie88

Still supporting the club topper, still supporting the club.

ralphie88

Haha. Yes not exactly keeping the red flag flying.

topper

nice to hear Ralphie - good lad - me here on the Costa I'll keep spraying away whilst the Euros last

ralphie88

You should have come to Valencia. Although some of the chants would probably have made you blush.

ciderman9000000

is that for real?

topper

I had a ticket but through some family illness had to cancel - I presume that the chants were about Uncle Malc and how you wanted to... er make love to him...


PS it is a family forum after all

TheMancRedDevil

I'm afraid so...

Red Knight calls for football revolution

ralphie88

Oooh lots of nasty chants. You should have heard the stuff they were singing about Tevez too. It would have made a monkey blush.

topper

the cnut deserves every verse he gets

peterstorey

I'd say it's a racing certainty that they took money out to pay down the PIKS on or about 31st July. The sum will, of course, be close to the magic £80M - cue shit storm - 'Ronaldo money used to pay down Glazer's debts' - 'Get rid of ManU's version of H&G'.

TheMancRedDevil

Given that Andersred, MUST and the others have been saying that this will happen for the last 9-10 months or so, the Glazer's opponents have actually done them a big favour by psychologically preparing everyone for the "news".

The press will undoubtedly do exactly what you have said there. Whether it comes as the enormous shock to United fans that they are hoping for remains to be seen however.

It has actually got to the point where if the money does NOT come out at some point in the next 12 months' worth of accounts, most of us will be totally confused as to what the hell they're up to.

andersred

Blimey, it was just a point about the sensitivity of income to playing performance, ask a Liverpool supporter. It's about risk.

I wasn't trying to scaremonger. Apologies if it came over that way.

Crerand Legend

Don't know if the Ronaldo money has gone stateside yet but if hasn't it wont be long until it does. They know whenever it goes to pay their debt the press and opposing fans will have a field day, the Green and Gold will become even stronger. Perhaps if we had a successful season last term the reaction would not have been as bad as it is going to be now, but for the Glazers their toxic debt is more important than the club

peterstorey

He, he, there will be an even bigger shitstorm and massive 'I tole you so you fule' with burning of effigies. No wonder they kept it quiet.

Crerand Legend

Some of us are above the underhand methods of the Glazers TMRD. As I said a successful season last time might have softened the blow but that didn't happen