Deconstructing Dimitar

Twisted_Woody · 9th May 2010, 01:38

Note: For those statistically brained folks out there, these are the stats that I used in this piece.

Games Started, Games used as a Sub, Goals, Assists, Shots, and Shots on Goal. Goal per cent is defined as the number of goals divided by the number of shots on goal times 100%. Shot Accuracy is defined at the number of shots on goal, divided by the number of shots times 100%.

Also, I am only using statistics for the Premier League. I am excluding all Cup competitions, friendlies, and Internationals. The statistics are up to and including May 4, 2010.

Preface

The majority of us want Berbatov gone because he isn?t scoring goals that we feel a 30 million pound striker should score. Well, some of his misses are quite amazing so we could generalize that even further and say that he isn?t scoring goals that we feel we could score.

Just to set the record straight, when I perform a comparison with Berbatov, I am omitting Rooney from the analysis. I consider Berbatov to be a support striker to Rooney and am comparing him with the other members of the supporting cast, this season Michael Owen, and last season Carlos Tevez.

Now, to get everyone angry at me I?m going to make an audacious statement: Berbatov is not playing badly. He is doing exactly what he did at Tottenham, and exactly what the statistics say he can do. The statistics tell the real story.

Berbatov vs. Berbatov

Before I drag in other players, we have to understand Berbatov?s overall performance in the Premier League.

The only story with regard to Berbatov?s appearance record is that the 2009/2010 season has seen him start less than in any other season in the Premier League.

Since it is the cornerstone of the argument, lets talk about goals. With Tottenham, he scored 12 goals in his first season, 15 in his second season and gained 11 assists each season. With United he bagged nine goals in his first season and 12 in his second. At first glance these numbers are fairly consistent. He is still scoring as much as he ever did, so what?s the problem?

The first problem is assists: He has nine assists in his first season with United, which is respectable given his history at Tottenham, but only four assists this season. For a player who relies on his first touch and finesse with the ball he seems to have stopped giving passes that lead to goals.

I don?t have a statistic for who scored on each of Berbatov?s assists. If it was Ronaldo, perhaps that explains the assists drought.

Fac(h)t number one. Berbatov has assisted less this season.

That is hardly a deal breaking statistic though. We?re only missing five assists from last season so the problem must be somewhere else.

If you don?t shoot, you don?t score

We have established that Berbatov has consistently kept up his scoring record.

The record, however, is meaningless if he requires a million shots to get those dozen or so goals each season. In his first two seasons with Tottenham he had 81 and 98 shots respectively, with 48 and 58 hitting the target. Of those 48 shots on goal he had 12 goals In his second season he had 15 goals from 58 shots.

This corresponds to a goal percentage of 25 per cent in both seasons.

That is incredibly consistent. He had a shot accuracy of 59 per cent in his first season and 59 per cent in his second season.

I?m not making this up.

He was that consistent.

These numbers are what (I hope) persuaded Manchester United to fork over 30 million pounds for him in the summer of 2008.

His first season at United saw him score nine goals. He had 56 shots with 24 on target. Nine goals from 24 shots on target make a goal percentage of 37 per cent. That is over 10 per cent higher than at Tottenham.

This season he has 12 goals from 34 shots on target; a goal percentage of 35 per cent. Once again, he is proving to be consistent.

So what is the damning statistic? It?s one I didn?t expect: Shot Accuracy.

With Tottenham he was remarkably consistent over two seasons. In 2008/2009 at United he had a 43 per cent shot accuracy. With one game to go in 2009/2010 he has a 37 per cent shot accuracy. Obviously, a vast majority of his shots are going wide, or over the bar, or both. This will kill anyone?s confidence.

Perhaps the heckling United supporters aren?t helping. We are quite demanding and players are expected to perform regardless of their surroundings. I know many people will say something about his pay packet and how he should perform as a result. Well, to them I have this to say: Money doesn?t buy happiness, nor does it buy confidence. He is only human after all.

Berbatov vs The Others

Round 1: Berbatov vs Owen

This is going to be short and sweet since Owen hasn?t featured much this season. Sadly for Michael, he has only made five starts and 14 substitute appearances. He has three goals and no assists. This season, Owen managed 20 shots and put eight on goal, with three resulting in goals. This gives him a goal percentage of 38 per cent and a shot accuracy of 40 per cent. Although his numbers are comparable to Berbatov?s, the small number of appearances and consequently shooting opportunities limits ones? ability to find a meaningful comparison. Interestingly though, despite the small numbers, the goal percentages and shot accuracy are fairly similar to Berbatov.

Goal Percentage: Berbatov 35 per cent vs. Owen 38 per cent Shot Accuracy: Berbatov 37 per cent vs. Owen 40 per cent

Round 2: Berbatov vs Tevez. The Final Fight.

Right, so who performed better last season?

Tevez only had 18 starts last season, and made 11 substitute appearances. Despite the difference in starts, both had a similar appearance record (Tevez at 29 and Berbatov at 31). Tevez only scored five goals. However he had more shots than Berbatov (66) and almost as many on target (21). Many people, including myself, wanted Berbatov gone and Tevez to stay. Tevez had a goal percentage of 24 per cent (Berbatov had 38 per cent). Tevez?s shot accuracy was 32 per cent compared to Berbatov?s 43 per cent.

Many point to the fact that Tevez would have done better had he had more starts and acquired more confidence from a presumed increase in goal output. Let?s look at Tevez?s first season at United (pre-Berbatov).

Tevez had a goal percentage of 25 per cent; 57 shots on goal, and 14 goals. That goal percentage is incredibly similar to his last season with United, so why did we all interpret him to have a good first season, and a poorer second season?

That statistic is back; shot accuracy. In Tevez?s first season he had a 62 per cent shot accuracy. In his last season that number was down by half. Something shot dear old Carlos? confidence and his performance suffered.

This tells us something interesting about us as supporters. We view shots on goal to be an indicator of performance as opposed to number of goals, or importance of goals. I definitely thought Tevez had a better first season, and that Berbatov was better last season when, in fact, the only statistic about either player that worsened in their second season was their ability to put the ball on target.

Interestingly, Tevez has a 42 per cent goal percentage and 46 per cent shot accuracy with Manchester City. This is a marked improvement on his last year with United, but still short of his accurate days of 2008/2009 (albeit he is scoring more for City, but that is probably due to the change in position).

Berbatov in Context

My last point stems from a comment I read some time ago: Berbatov scores as much as he ever did, but his goals were never as important as the one?s Tevez scored.

In essence, this is saying that Berbatov doesn?t score important goals, others do. This is a good point, potentially. 12 goals a season sounds nice, but if they are at the end of 5-0 drubbings then they are hardly useful unless the title comes down to goal difference (which it almost has several times).

First, let us define what an Important Goal is. It is one that wins a game, gives a team a lead (go ahead goal) or equalizes. With that established, I will now compare Berbatov, Owen (again, briefly), and Tevez (last season).

2009/2010 ? Berbatov and Owen

Once again, this will be short since Owen only scored three goals. Of Owen?s three goals, one is deemed important (winner vs. City). Berbatov currently sits on 12 goals and has exactly five Important Goals, and seven ?other? goals. He has no game winners, which is something that removes luster from his spectacle.

Every single one of his Important Goals has been the first goal of a match, and the go ahead goal in four of them, and the equalizer in one of them. Of his twelve goals, 42 per cent are important compared to Owen?s 33 per cent.

2008/2009 ? Berbatov and Tevez

Of Berbatov?s nine goals, four were Important, or 44 per cent. Tevez scored five goals and three were Important, or 60 per cent.

Given how few goals were scored between them it is hard to point fingers and say who is better. Perhaps simply saying empirically that Berbatov had four Important Goals compared to Tevez?s three is sufficient.

I have noticed something interesting though.

Berbatov scored fewer Important Goals (ok, only one less) but we deemed him to be a better player last season. Perhaps it is this: three of the four goals were game winners, with one in the last minute of play. Two of those winners were the only goal to be scored in the game and were also go ahead goals (in other words, 1-0 wins).

Since Tevez does not have enough goals during his second season to really give a good comparison, I thought I?d try to compare Tevez?s first season to Berbatov?s first season. Tevez had 14 goals in his first season. Six were considered Important giving an Important Goal percentage of 43 per cent. He had four go ahead goals, two of which ended up being winners, and two equalizers. Percentage wise, Tevez and Berbatov were fairly similar in their first seasons (in terms of Important Goals).

The Deal Breaker ? Who steps up in big matches

Ok, so it?s been established that Berbatov slightly out-performed Tevez in goal percentage and shot accuracy, likewise when you compare to Owen. Also, the Important Goal breakdown is slightly inconclusive, it just supports my argument that Berbatov isn?t playing badly with respect to what he?s shown in the past. The last question to address is; which of the important goals are scored in big matches?

Definition of a big match: a match against Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, or Liverpool.

Owen has one goal against Manchester City, a crucial game winner. Tevez has three over his two seasons (two in the first season, one in the second).

Berbatov has zero.

In fact, in big matches Berbatov has only one goal in his two seasons here (the third goal scored against Chelsea last season), compared with Tevez?s total of four goals. This points to a lack of confidence, as well as an inability to perform in high-pressure situations. Even Michael Owen has one ?big match goal? and he only has three goals to look at.

What to do with Berbatov?

After all this painstaking analysis it points to one fact: Berbatov is lacking confidence. A number of factors could be the cause of this. I can only guess, really. If it is the environment that he is in, then he should change clubs and move to an environment better suited to him. If it is something to do with him personally, psychologically, then perhaps a sports psychologist is the answer to his woes.

Unfortunately his woes are United?s woes. Luckily enough though, he isn?t underperforming in terms of goal output and his output matches what it did for Tottenham, it?s just the process of getting there that is suffering. His shot accuracy has dropped by almost half and he is matching his goal output. One can only imagine how many he?d score if he could hit the target more readily.

MalteseRedDevil · 9th May 2010, 02:07

Nice Work.

I think that in the end all the fan frustration boils down to the inflated transfer fee we paid for him

Alex · 9th May 2010, 02:12

He hasn't lived up to his billing, there is no doubt about. United lost Ronaldo and they really need some attackers to step up, Rooney sure as fuck did, Valencia was great, Nani turned on the style in the 2nd half of the season, and well Berbatov was meh, AND WHEN UNITED NEEDED HIM HE WAS NO WHERE TO BE FOUND. FUCK THE CHELSEA GAME, HAD HE PLAYED WELL AGAINST BLACKBURN UNITED WOULD BE GOING INTO TOMORROW AS THE #1 TEAM IN THE EPL NO. 19 WOULD BE A FORMALITY

VoetbalWizard · 9th May 2010, 02:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by Twisted_Woody

Note: For those statistically brained folks out there, these are the stats that I used in this piece.

Games Started, Games used as a Sub, Goals, Assists, Shots, and Shots on Goal. Goal per cent is defined as the number of goals divided by the number of shots on goal times 100%. Shot Accuracy is defined at the number of shots on goal, divided by the number of shots times 100%.

Also, I am only using statistics for the Premier League. I am excluding all Cup competitions, friendlies, and Internationals. The statistics are up to and including May 4, 2010.

Preface

The majority of us want Berbatov gone because he isn?t scoring goals that we feel a 30 million pound striker should score. Well, some of his misses are quite amazing so we could generalize that even further and say that he isn?t scoring goals that we feel we could score.

Just to set the record straight, when I perform a comparison with Berbatov, I am omitting Rooney from the analysis. I consider Berbatov to be a support striker to Rooney and am comparing him with the other members of the supporting cast, this season Michael Owen, and last season Carlos Tevez.

Now, to get everyone angry at me I?m going to make an audacious statement: Berbatov is not playing badly. He is doing exactly what he did at Tottenham, and exactly what the statistics say he can do. The statistics tell the real story.

Berbatov vs. Berbatov

Before I drag in other players, we have to understand Berbatov?s overall performance in the Premier League.

The only story with regard to Berbatov?s appearance record is that the 2009/2010 season has seen him start less than in any other season in the Premier League.

Since it is the cornerstone of the argument, lets talk about goals. With Tottenham, he scored 12 goals in his first season, 15 in his second season and gained 11 assists each season. With United he bagged nine goals in his first season and 12 in his second. At first glance these numbers are fairly consistent. He is still scoring as much as he ever did, so what?s the problem?

The first problem is assists: He has nine assists in his first season with United, which is respectable given his history at Tottenham, but only four assists this season. For a player who relies on his first touch and finesse with the ball he seems to have stopped giving passes that lead to goals.

I don?t have a statistic for who scored on each of Berbatov?s assists. If it was Ronaldo, perhaps that explains the assists drought.

Fac(h)t number one. Berbatov has assisted less this season.

That is hardly a deal breaking statistic though. We?re only missing five assists from last season so the problem must be somewhere else.

If you don?t shoot, you don?t score

We have established that Berbatov has consistently kept up his scoring record.

The record, however, is meaningless if he requires a million shots to get those dozen or so goals each season. In his first two seasons with Tottenham he had 81 and 98 shots respectively, with 48 and 58 hitting the target. Of those 48 shots on goal he had 12 goals In his second season he had 15 goals from 58 shots.

This corresponds to a goal percentage of 25 per cent in both seasons.

That is incredibly consistent. He had a shot accuracy of 59 per cent in his first season and 59 per cent in his second season.

I?m not making this up.

He was that consistent.

These numbers are what (I hope) persuaded Manchester United to fork over 30 million pounds for him in the summer of 2008.

His first season at United saw him score nine goals. He had 56 shots with 24 on target. Nine goals from 24 shots on target make a goal percentage of 37 per cent. That is over 10 per cent higher than at Tottenham.

This season he has 12 goals from 34 shots on target; a goal percentage of 35 per cent. Once again, he is proving to be consistent.

So what is the damning statistic? It?s one I didn?t expect: Shot Accuracy.

With Tottenham he was remarkably consistent over two seasons. In 2008/2009 at United he had a 43 per cent shot accuracy. With one game to go in 2009/2010 he has a 37 per cent shot accuracy. Obviously, a vast majority of his shots are going wide, or over the bar, or both. This will kill anyone?s confidence.

Perhaps the heckling United supporters aren?t helping. We are quite demanding and players are expected to perform regardless of their surroundings. I know many people will say something about his pay packet and how he should perform as a result. Well, to them I have this to say: Money doesn?t buy happiness, nor does it buy confidence. He is only human after all.

Berbatov vs The Others

Round 1: Berbatov vs Owen

This is going to be short and sweet since Owen hasn?t featured much this season. Sadly for Michael, he has only made five starts and 14 substitute appearances. He has three goals and no assists. This season, Owen managed 20 shots and put eight on goal, with three resulting in goals. This gives him a goal percentage of 38 per cent and a shot accuracy of 40 per cent. Although his numbers are comparable to Berbatov?s, the small number of appearances and consequently shooting opportunities limits ones? ability to find a meaningful comparison. Interestingly though, despite the small numbers, the goal percentages and shot accuracy are fairly similar to Berbatov.

Goal Percentage: Berbatov 35 per cent vs. Owen 38 per cent Shot Accuracy: Berbatov 37 per cent vs. Owen 40 per cent

Round 2: Berbatov vs Tevez. The Final Fight.

Right, so who performed better last season?

Tevez only had 18 starts last season, and made 11 substitute appearances. Despite the difference in starts, both had a similar appearance record (Tevez at 29 and Berbatov at 31). Tevez only scored five goals. However he had more shots than Berbatov (66) and almost as many on target (21). Many people, including myself, wanted Berbatov gone and Tevez to stay. Tevez had a goal percentage of 24 per cent (Berbatov had 38 per cent). Tevez?s shot accuracy was 32 per cent compared to Berbatov?s 43 per cent.

Many point to the fact that Tevez would have done better had he had more starts and acquired more confidence from a presumed increase in goal output. Let?s look at Tevez?s first season at United (pre-Berbatov).

Tevez had a goal percentage of 25 per cent; 57 shots on goal, and 14 goals. That goal percentage is incredibly similar to his last season with United, so why did we all interpret him to have a good first season, and a poorer second season?

That statistic is back; shot accuracy. In Tevez?s first season he had a 62 per cent shot accuracy. In his last season that number was down by half. Something shot dear old Carlos? confidence and his performance suffered.

This tells us something interesting about us as supporters. We view shots on goal to be an indicator of performance as opposed to number of goals, or importance of goals. I definitely thought Tevez had a better first season, and that Berbatov was better last season when, in fact, the only statistic about either player that worsened in their second season was their ability to put the ball on target.

Interestingly, Tevez has a 42 per cent goal percentage and 46 per cent shot accuracy with Manchester City. This is a marked improvement on his last year with United, but still short of his accurate days of 2008/2009 (albeit he is scoring more for City, but that is probably due to the change in position).

Berbatov in Context

My last point stems from a comment I read some time ago: Berbatov scores as much as he ever did, but his goals were never as important as the one?s Tevez scored.

In essence, this is saying that Berbatov doesn?t score important goals, others do. This is a good point, potentially. 12 goals a season sounds nice, but if they are at the end of 5-0 drubbings then they are hardly useful unless the title comes down to goal difference (which it almost has several times).

First, let us define what an Important Goal is. It is one that wins a game, gives a team a lead (go ahead goal) or equalizes. With that established, I will now compare Berbatov, Owen (again, briefly), and Tevez (last season).

2009/2010 ? Berbatov and Owen

Once again, this will be short since Owen only scored three goals. Of Owen?s three goals, one is deemed important (winner vs. City). Berbatov currently sits on 12 goals and has exactly five Important Goals, and seven ?other? goals. He has no game winners, which is something that removes luster from his spectacle.

Every single one of his Important Goals has been the first goal of a match, and the go ahead goal in four of them, and the equalizer in one of them. Of his twelve goals, 42 per cent are important compared to Owen?s 33 per cent.

2008/2009 ? Berbatov and Tevez

Of Berbatov?s nine goals, four were Important, or 44 per cent. Tevez scored five goals and three were Important, or 60 per cent.

Given how few goals were scored between them it is hard to point fingers and say who is better. Perhaps simply saying empirically that Berbatov had four Important Goals compared to Tevez?s three is sufficient.

I have noticed something interesting though.

Berbatov scored fewer Important Goals (ok, only one less) but we deemed him to be a better player last season. Perhaps it is this: three of the four goals were game winners, with one in the last minute of play. Two of those winners were the only goal to be scored in the game and were also go ahead goals (in other words, 1-0 wins).

Since Tevez does not have enough goals during his second season to really give a good comparison, I thought I?d try to compare Tevez?s first season to Berbatov?s first season. Tevez had 14 goals in his first season. Six were considered Important giving an Important Goal percentage of 43 per cent. He had four go ahead goals, two of which ended up being winners, and two equalizers. Percentage wise, Tevez and Berbatov were fairly similar in their first seasons (in terms of Important Goals).

The Deal Breaker ? Who steps up in big matches

Ok, so it?s been established that Berbatov slightly out-performed Tevez in goal percentage and shot accuracy, likewise when you compare to Owen. Also, the Important Goal breakdown is slightly inconclusive, it just supports my argument that Berbatov isn?t playing badly with respect to what he?s shown in the past. The last question to address is; which of the important goals are scored in big matches?

Definition of a big match: a match against Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, or Liverpool.

Owen has one goal against Manchester City, a crucial game winner. Tevez has three over his two seasons (two in the first season, one in the second).

Berbatov has zero.

In fact, in big matches Berbatov has only one goal in his two seasons here (the third goal scored against Chelsea last season), compared with Tevez?s total of four goals. This points to a lack of confidence, as well as an inability to perform in high-pressure situations. Even Michael Owen has one ?big match goal? and he only has three goals to look at.

What to do with Berbatov?

After all this painstaking analysis it points to one fact: Berbatov is lacking confidence. A number of factors could be the cause of this. I can only guess, really. If it is the environment that he is in, then he should change clubs and move to an environment better suited to him. If it is something to do with him personally, psychologically, then perhaps a sports psychologist is the answer to his woes.

Unfortunately his woes are United?s woes. Luckily enough though, he isn?t underperforming in terms of goal output and his output matches what it did for Tottenham, it?s just the process of getting there that is suffering. His shot accuracy has dropped by almost half and he is matching his goal output. One can only imagine how many he?d score if he could hit the target more readily.

which is why i and a few on here didn't want the cunt anywhere near united in the first place. he really wasn't that great at spurs. certainly not the next bergkamp/cantona like cunts on here were banging on about. his level at spurs should've never gotten him a united deal, so when he finally arrived, i expected more since he is surrounded with more weapons, a better team, and a better manager.

berbatov has failed IMO on multiple levels at united, and doesn't have the bollocks to cut it at a big club. Spurs/Leverkusen is his level and the quicker he gets back to it, the better for all parties.

AttackingFlair · 9th May 2010, 02:46

He was clearly one of the best strikers in the league while he was at Spurs (06/07 at least). He got in the PFA team of the year ahead of Rooney. I'm not saying that certainly means he was amazing, but it was obvious he had a top class season.

kietotheworld · 9th May 2010, 03:01

I think he should be performing better at United than he did at Tottenham, considering he is playing in a very similar position for us, and he has better players around him. With regard to the important goals statistic, and comparing him to Tevez, if you take away all of Berbatov's goals for this season we would be two points behind Chelsea. If you take all of Carlos Tevez's goals for this season, we would be 3 points behind Chelsea, and they would effectively be Champions. Further, Berbatov has only scored 2 goals against teams in the Top 10 of the premiership

mswiss · 9th May 2010, 03:20

i wonder if his important goals with us are similar with what he had at tottenham, if you put that in and i missed it sorry

CasaStreets · 9th May 2010, 03:30

While I think it is pretty good of you to have gone through the trouble to try and statistically analyze Berbatov's performance you have several confounding factors in your study that you have failed to account for.

A) You've said nothing about his defensive tendencies, which is a substantial point given that he often looks like he couldn't care less and is part of a squad which otherwise works hard off the ball to pressure opponents.

B) You have not factored in the difference in scoring capabilities between Tottenham and United. Indeed, given that we have scored 17 more goals than they have this season, it is a very relevant point. Shot accuracy etc... is not all that consistency is comprised of. A truly consistent player should be looking to increase his output in correlation with the performance of the overall team - or at least not score less (which the stats show he has). Also, I don't know if the statistics would be even but it might be useful to check goals per minutes at Tottenham and at United.

However, I am not convinced that consistency between Berbatov's performances at Tottenham and his performances at United was ever the issue really at hand. I think that all transferred players arrive at United with a role that SAF looks at them to fulfill. I think what has happened is that many fans have become disillusioned because they doubt that the role SAF wanted Berbatov to play was one where he scored less than before, assisted less than before, and generally did fuck all defensively.

Sojiro · 9th May 2010, 03:54

Nice post Tw, it won't sway many but it was a good read.

He just doesn't dominate games the way we want him to due to his price tag and the resulting expectations. I want him to do well but the signs aren't great and we need a scorer to be there in our prefered 4-4-2 or invade Wayne misses time in the course of a season or even when Wayne needs a rest.

Twisted_Woody · 9th May 2010, 04:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by CasaStreets

While I think it is pretty good of you to have gone through the trouble to try and statistically analyze Berbatov's performance you have several confounding factors in your study that you have failed to account for.

A) You've said nothing about his defensive tendencies, which is a substantial point given that he often looks like he couldn't care less and is part of a squad which otherwise works hard off the ball to pressure opponents.

B) You have not factored in the difference in scoring capabilities between Tottenham and United. Indeed, given that we have scored 17 more goals than they have this season, it is a very relevant point. Shot accuracy etc... is not all that consistency is comprised of. A truly consistent player should be looking to increase his output in correlation with the performance of the overall team - or at least not score less (which the stats show he has). Also, I don't know if the statistics would be even but it might be useful to check goals per minutes at Tottenham and at United.

However, I am not convinced that consistency between Berbatov's performances at Tottenham and his performances at United was ever the issue really at hand. I think that all transferred players arrive at United with a role that SAF looks at them to fulfill. I think what has happened is that many fans have become disillusioned because they doubt that the role SAF wanted Berbatov to play was one where he scored less than before, assisted less than before, and generally did fuck all defensively.

A) Very true, but that is hard to quantify.

B) He hasn't scored less this season. He has 12 goals. More than last season, and on par with his first season at Tottenham.

Your point about goals per minute and goals relative to team performance is very valid though. Thanks for bringing it up!

scholesy legend · 9th May 2010, 04:47

Good job. Enjoyed reading it.

Do you have stats including percentages of important goals and goals in big matches while he was at Spurs and Leverkusen? That should be good for comparisons too.

scholesy legend · 9th May 2010, 04:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by CasaStreets

While I think it is pretty good of you to have gone through the trouble to try and statistically analyze Berbatov's performance you have several confounding factors in your study that you have failed to account for.

A) You've said nothing about his defensive tendencies, which is a substantial point given that he often looks like he couldn't care less and is part of a squad which otherwise works hard off the ball to pressure opponents.B) You have not factored in the difference in scoring capabilities between Tottenham and United. Indeed, given that we have scored 17 more goals than they have this season, it is a very relevant point. Shot accuracy etc... is not all that consistency is comprised of. A truly consistent player should be looking to increase his output in correlation with the performance of the overall team - or at least not score less (which the stats show he has). Also, I don't know if the statistics would be even but it might be useful to check goals per minutes at Tottenham and at United.

However, I am not convinced that consistency between Berbatov's performances at Tottenham and his performances at United was ever the issue really at hand. I think that all transferred players arrive at United with a role that SAF looks at them to fulfill. I think what has happened is that many fans have become disillusioned because they doubt that the role SAF wanted Berbatov to play was one where he scored less than before, assisted less than before, and generally did fuck all defensively.

I think Fergie knows this far too well. I dont think he is brought in to do a Kuyt. I think he wanted a different dimension to our predictability, probably the same as what he wanted to do when he bought Veron and Cantona. I think Fergie is a person who absolutely loves beautiful football, unlike what Wenger always claims. He wants success first and foremost, but he still craves for guile and style while approaching it.

CasaStreets · 9th May 2010, 05:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by scholesy legend

I think Fergie knows this far too well. I dont think he is brought in to do a Kuyt. I think he wanted a different dimension to our predictability, probably the same as what he wanted to do when he bought Veron and Cantona. I think Fergie is a person who absolutely loves beautiful football, unlike what Wenger always claims. He wants success first and foremost, but he still craves for guile and style while approaching it.

Fair enough, especially given that our defensive record is still fantastic. We have conceded four less goals than Chelsea this season and certainly look solid at the back. Anyways, I have always been upset by his lack of defensive effort but perhaps this ought not to be part of the debate.

That said, I would find it hard to believe that Fergie, yet alone the fans, should be satisfied by Berbatov's very inconsistent displays of guile and style. And I think the same might be said of his end product - for as impressive as our defensive record is, we have still scored 13 goals less than Chelsea.

When a player's offensive displays struggle to impress, especially in comparison to expectations, it's only natural that fans' negative opinions are exacerbated by what often appears to appear to be a lack of effort - whether it is really relevant or not.

devilish · 9th May 2010, 05:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Twisted_Woody

A) Very true, but that is hard to quantify.

B) He hasn't scored less this season. He has 12 goals. More than last season, and on par with his first season at Tottenham.

Your point about goals per minute and goals relative to team performance is very valid though. Thanks for bringing it up!

Last season he scored 14

2 against Aalborg
2 against West Brom
2 against Celtic
1 against Stoke
1 against Middlesbrough
1 against Chelsea
1 against Bolton
2 against Spurs
1 against Fulham
1 against Newcastle

This year he was less prolific in terms of big clubs and scored no goals in Europe

He scored 12

2 against Wigan
1 against Stoke
1 against Sunderland
1 against Blackburn
1 against Hull
1 against Burnley
1 against Portsmouth
1 against Everton
2 against Bolton

mariachi-19 · 9th May 2010, 05:32

To be fair Twisty, you can not include the cups all you want, but they're a significant part of every season. The fact is, he's been completely underwhelming in the Champions league for 2 seasons. I don't think he's even scored in the knock out rounds. Owen has four goals in very little game time including a hattrick against the German champions.

Football is not just about the league, especially when you're playing for Manchester United. We're not scrapping for 4th place, or trying to go on a long winded cup run. Not to sound arrogant, but its somewhat of a disappointment if we're not at the tall end of these cup runs every season, and Berbatov has contributed very little in these games. In fact he's scored one goal in our two winning carling cup runs, and not a thing in the F.A. Cup 'this or last year', or the Champions league this year.

This combined with his paltry goal return is what is turning people off. He's just simply been mediocre, and when you're pushing up and comers out of the squad, who could be doing just as good, somethings got to give.

As I said earlier, contrary to what Sir Alex wants us to believe, I think Berbatov's future with Manchester United is effectively over after tonight. He's had his time to shine and come up short each time. Cut your losses and move on like we did with Veron. He's not a youngster who can grow and develop. He's in his peak years and failing miserably.

Hopefully Milan are stupid enough to buy him off us.

devilish · 9th May 2010, 05:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by marchi-91

To be fair Twisty, you can not include the cups all you want, but they're a significant part of every season. The fact is, he's been completely underwhelming in the Champions league for 2 seasons. I don't think he's even scored in the knock out rounds. Owen has four goals in very little game time including a hattrick against the German champions.

Football is not just about the league, especially when you're playing for Manchester United. We're not scrapping for 4th place, or trying to go on a long winded cup run. Not to sound arrogant, but its somewhat of a disappointment if we're not at the tall end of these cup runs every season, and Berbatov has contributed very little in these games. In fact he's scored one goal in our two winning carling cup runs, and not a thing in the F.A. Cup 'this or last year', or the Champions league this year.

This combined with his paltry goal return is what is turning people off. He's just simply been mediocre, and when you're pushing up and comers out of the squad, who could be doing just as good, somethings got to give.

As I said earlier, contrary to what Sir Alex wants us to believe, I think Berbatov's future with Manchester United is effectively over after tonight. He's had his time to shine and come up short each time. Cut your losses and move on like we did with Veron.

Hopefully Milan are stupid enough to buy him off us.

I agree to a certain point

Berba may remain here because we may find it hard to find a club capable of paying decent money for him.

Ekeke · 9th May 2010, 05:46

So you compared against Michael Owen and last season's Tevez. Are you going to compare him against Forlan next? When you compare him against other poorly performing strikers having bad seasons or players who are yet to prove themselves at United then I've no doubts he's doing okay.

devilish · 9th May 2010, 05:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ekeke

So you compared against Michael Owen and last season's Tevez. Are you going to compare him against Forlan next? When you compare him against other poorly performing strikers having bad seasons or players who are yet to prove themselves at United then I've no doubts he's doing okay.

We should compare him to Garry birtles. That would highlight Berba's quality once and for all.

Bear Attack · 9th May 2010, 06:25

No statistics or comparisons can justify Berbatov's performances this season. Many have been below par and he has failed to show up when the team needs him to step up the most.

Redrage · 9th May 2010, 06:58

Twisted_Woody I officially love you.

What Berbatov needs is a lucky break, a huge goal right in the dying minutes or a winner against the rivals. A goal of sorts that will endear him to the supports.
And more importantly people need to cut him some slack. We all know you don't like him but he is United player and there is nothing you can do to change that. Rather than booing him and cutting his already short confidence even more short you're clearly not helping. Get behind him once and support him and see how it goes after all we should all look after the clubs best interest and not proclaim as to how you've never wanted Berbatov here and he is shit I've been vindicated yada yada.

CentreForward · 9th May 2010, 07:09

Interesting read. How much time did it take to put those stats together? Anyways, I hope Berba's next season is better in terms of accuracy and shots on goal, but he will always divide the fans. The problem is, there's no middle ground with him on here. Either you love him or hate him. And it seems that's always going to be the case.

CentreForward · 9th May 2010, 07:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redrage

Twisted_Woody I officially love you.

What Berbatov needs is a lucky break, a huge goal right in the dying minutes or a winner against the rivals. A goal of sorts that will endear him to the supports.
And more importantly people need to cut him some slack. We all know you don't like him but he is United player and there is nothing you can do to change that. Rather than booing him and cutting his already short confidence even more short you're clearly not helping. Get behind him once and support him and see how it goes after all we should all look after the clubs best interest and not proclaim as to how you've never wanted Berbatov here and he is shit I've been vindicated yada yada.

How much I would love to see that

::sonny:: · 9th May 2010, 08:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by devilish

Last season he scored 14

2 against Aalborg
2 against West Brom
2 against Celtic
1 against Stoke
1 against Middlesbrough
1 against Chelsea
1 against Bolton
2 against Spurs
1 against Fulham
1 against Newcastle

This year he was less prolific in terms of big clubs and scored no goals in Europe

He scored 12

2 against Wigan
1 against Stoke
1 against Sunderland
1 against Blackburn
1 against Hull
1 against Burnley
1 against Portsmouth
1 against Everton
2 against Bolton

He scores the 3th, 4th goal in matches concluded 3/4-0, he never scored the 1-0 if I'm not wrong, only once, twice at max

Pogue Mahone · 9th May 2010, 08:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by VoetbalWizard

which is why i and a few on here didn't want the cunt anywhere near united in the first place. he really wasn't that great at spurs. certainly not the next bergkamp/cantona like cunts on here were banging on about. his level at spurs should've never gotten him a united deal, so when he finally arrived, i expected more since he is surrounded with more weapons, a better team, and a better manager.

berbatov has failed IMO on multiple levels at united, and doesn't have the bollocks to cut it at a big club. Spurs/Leverkusen is his level and the quicker he gets back to it, the better for all parties.

You didn't want him anywhere near United yet you expected him to play even better than he did at Spurs, since he would be surrounded by better players? Did it occur to you that this is exactly why our manager and our fans (i.e. the "cunts" you refer to above) thought he could be a good signing?

As well as being a tediously malicious and vindictive cunt about everything to do with Berbatov, you're clearly not very bright.

SharkyMcShark · 9th May 2010, 09:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by ::sonny::

He scores the 3th, 4th goal in matches concluded 3/4-0, he never scored the 1-0 if I'm not wrong, only once, twice at max

You are wrong. Last season he scored the openers against Celtic, Bolton, Boro, WBA (In two of those his goal was the only goal). He scored the winner against Spurs in the cup. He provided the last minute assist for Tevez away to Stoke for the winner.

This season he scored the opener against Everton, Blackburn, Sunderland, Stoke.

So really you are wrong, he's scored the opener (and decisive goal) more than once or twice.

Makki · 9th May 2010, 09:57

Oh crap, I thought you were taking him apart so we could sell him part by part.

Just kidding

Sunny Jim · 9th May 2010, 10:04

Quote:

Ok, so it?s been established that Berbatov slightly out-performed Tevez in goal percentage and shot accuracy

that's not a shocker really, Tevez will take a shot even if it's a half-chance to score, Berbatov hesitates over a tap in

plus what stats doesn't show is a work-rate

buckooo1978 · 9th May 2010, 10:19

berbatov needs to go - despite all the facts/stats presented

he's the only (non performing) striker we have that we can recoup some money on

we need a reliable backup for rooney and with owen's fitness, kiko's lack of experience, who knows what chicarito and diouf are capable of?

berbatov is impotent in front of goal but you could accept 12 goals or whatever he scored if he was creating goals in the way that people like bergkamp, cantona, zola or sheringham did. He has slowed down our play and when we really needed him (against chelsea, bayern, blackburn, city and even sunderland) he has been very very poor

this is a crucial time for us as we can't rely on rooney to keep us competing on his own next season - hopefully nani can start next season like he finishes this, hopefully valencia can regain some of his good form next year and we can sort out the midfield problems with have with out of form carrick and anderson and hargreaves fitness

the really crucial thing for me though is that we bring in a striker (maybe we have already?) to take some of the pressure off rooney - Berbatov has to be the one to go - he isn't performing and has never on a consistent basis has he? We could conceivably get 15 million or so for him. We wouldnt be wasting 80-100k a week on his wages and it would freshen up our attack (and hopefully inject some pace)

Tumbling-Dice · 9th May 2010, 10:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Makki

Oh crap, I thought you were taking him apart so we could sell him part by part.

Just kidding

Treble · 9th May 2010, 10:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by SharkyMcShark

You are wrong. Last season he scored the openers against Celtic, Bolton, Boro, WBA (In two of those his goal was the only goal). He scored the winner against Spurs in the cup. He provided the last minute assist for Tevez away to Stoke for the winner.

This season he scored the opener against Everton, Blackburn, Sunderland, Stoke.

So really you are wrong, he's scored the opener (and decisive goal) more than once or twice.

You can add the winner against Newcastle as well. Actually, last season Berbatov scored more winners than Ronaldo, Rooney and Tevez and he did it playing deeper than them. He wasn't a success. But he wasn't half as bad as some muppets think. I like him but I think that it could be better for both the club and the player if we sell him to another club, provided that we get good money and the buying club is good enough for him, e.g. Bayern, Milan or even Spurs. I very much doubt that he would agree to move to a club that has no chance to play in the CL. He would prefer to sit on the bench at United to playing say for Newcastle, Sunderland, Wolfsburg etc.

Ixion · 9th May 2010, 10:28

Why only include goals in the league? Do we not care about the FA Cup or Europe anymore?

Treble · 9th May 2010, 10:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ixion

Why only include goals in the league? Do we not care about the FA Cup or Europe anymore?

I'm talking about the winners in all compets last season.

Striker10 · 9th May 2010, 10:39

His first season he was a disaster BUT that might not be his fault. He was always a slow starter at spurs but got stronger as the season went on. I think if we as a club, asked him to play different to the way he did at spurs, we can't really blame him for that first season

His second season has been a bit better. His general play is fine and I don't think this lazy talk is right because unlike the first year, he's getting more chances. The problem is he's missing them and again I don't think we've helped him.

I don't think he enjoys his price tag. I'm not sure he's mentally a United player but talent wise he is. He might be someone we have to show a hell of a lot of faith in but if we can get him through his lack of confidence in himself, it could still prove to be a great bit of business by us.

MrK · 9th May 2010, 10:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ixion

Why only include goals in the league? Do we not care about the FA Cup or Europe anymore?

Well its probably the best benchmark seeing as league games make up the majority of our games every season, and the quality of opposition is restricted to the top tier in England. In cups we could be playing anyone from yeovil town to barcelona, and the team we field could be our strongest or it could be half filled with reserves, so they're not as ideal for comparison.

Besides, he hasn't started very many cup games this season at least, so there ain't a whole lot to compare.

Rob Bowman · 9th May 2010, 13:47

Great work with the stats. I had perused the actim stats awhile ago and concluded much of what you have. I think it very relevant to show % by team and goals per min. He is not as bad as some let on.

Still at the end of the day this is United and therefore the expectations are for much more than that. This is the nature of the beast. Imho he needs to step up or find a new home, simple as.

vuc · 9th May 2010, 14:00

Good work with this.

I think he should be taking more shots myself, out of interest how many more shots has Rooney taken this season?

soapythecat · 9th May 2010, 14:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redrage

Twisted_Woody I officially love you.

What Berbatov needs is a lucky break, a huge goal right in the dying minutes or a winner against the rivals. A goal of sorts that will endear him to the supports.
And more importantly people need to cut him some slack. We all know you don't like him but he is United player and there is nothing you can do to change that. Rather than booing him and cutting his already short confidence even more short you're clearly not helping. Get behind him once and support him and see how it goes after all we should all look after the clubs best interest and not proclaim as to how you've never wanted Berbatov here and he is shit I've been vindicated yada yada.

I hear what you are saying mate but how long are we going to give him for this 'lucky break'. He has had a shed load of chances to prove himself and for me he hasn't . I can only compare him to a £30m player because that is what we paid for him, so for me he has fallen way short. I don't, not like him, I just don't think he suits united's style of play. I would be the happiest man alive if he changed his way....but he won't.

Jacob · 9th May 2010, 14:14

Sell Berba

Name Changed · 9th May 2010, 16:02

It's amazing where Berbatov is concerned, only league matches are ever considered. You'd think we're not involved in any other competitions. I don't understand that concept to be honest.

Twisted_Woody · 9th May 2010, 22:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by Name Changed

It's amazing where Berbatov is concerned, only league matches are ever considered. You'd think we're not involved in any other competitions. I don't understand that concept to be honest.

I chose only the premier league is for a few reasons.

1. With Tottenham he didn't play in the CL.

2. The pool of games that make up the CL is very small compared to that of the PL. For statistical reasons I took the PL only as it is the largest sample size when considering point number 1.

9th May 2010, 01:38	#1 (permalink)
Twisted_Woody Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 7,623	Deconstructing Dimitar Note: For those statistically brained folks out there, these are the stats that I used in this piece. Games Started, Games used as a Sub, Goals, Assists, Shots, and Shots on Goal. Goal per cent is defined as the number of goals divided by the number of shots on goal times 100%. Shot Accuracy is defined at the number of shots on goal, divided by the number of shots times 100%. Also, I am only using statistics for the Premier League. I am excluding all Cup competitions, friendlies, and Internationals. The statistics are up to and including May 4, 2010. Preface The majority of us want Berbatov gone because he isn?t scoring goals that we feel a 30 million pound striker should score. Well, some of his misses are quite amazing so we could generalize that even further and say that he isn?t scoring goals that we feel we could score. Just to set the record straight, when I perform a comparison with Berbatov, I am omitting Rooney from the analysis. I consider Berbatov to be a support striker to Rooney and am comparing him with the other members of the supporting cast, this season Michael Owen, and last season Carlos Tevez. Now, to get everyone angry at me I?m going to make an audacious statement: Berbatov is not playing badly. He is doing exactly what he did at Tottenham, and exactly what the statistics say he can do. The statistics tell the real story. Berbatov vs. Berbatov Before I drag in other players, we have to understand Berbatov?s overall performance in the Premier League. The only story with regard to Berbatov?s appearance record is that the 2009/2010 season has seen him start less than in any other season in the Premier League. Since it is the cornerstone of the argument, lets talk about goals. With Tottenham, he scored 12 goals in his first season, 15 in his second season and gained 11 assists each season. With United he bagged nine goals in his first season and 12 in his second. At first glance these numbers are fairly consistent. He is still scoring as much as he ever did, so what?s the problem? The first problem is assists: He has nine assists in his first season with United, which is respectable given his history at Tottenham, but only four assists this season. For a player who relies on his first touch and finesse with the ball he seems to have stopped giving passes that lead to goals. I don?t have a statistic for who scored on each of Berbatov?s assists. If it was Ronaldo, perhaps that explains the assists drought. Fac(h)t number one. Berbatov has assisted less this season. That is hardly a deal breaking statistic though. We?re only missing five assists from last season so the problem must be somewhere else. If you don?t shoot, you don?t score We have established that Berbatov has consistently kept up his scoring record. The record, however, is meaningless if he requires a million shots to get those dozen or so goals each season. In his first two seasons with Tottenham he had 81 and 98 shots respectively, with 48 and 58 hitting the target. Of those 48 shots on goal he had 12 goals In his second season he had 15 goals from 58 shots. This corresponds to a goal percentage of 25 per cent in both seasons. That is incredibly consistent. He had a shot accuracy of 59 per cent in his first season and 59 per cent in his second season. I?m not making this up. He was that consistent. These numbers are what (I hope) persuaded Manchester United to fork over 30 million pounds for him in the summer of 2008. His first season at United saw him score nine goals. He had 56 shots with 24 on target. Nine goals from 24 shots on target make a goal percentage of 37 per cent. That is over 10 per cent higher than at Tottenham. This season he has 12 goals from 34 shots on target; a goal percentage of 35 per cent. Once again, he is proving to be consistent. So what is the damning statistic? It?s one I didn?t expect: Shot Accuracy. With Tottenham he was remarkably consistent over two seasons. In 2008/2009 at United he had a 43 per cent shot accuracy. With one game to go in 2009/2010 he has a 37 per cent shot accuracy. Obviously, a vast majority of his shots are going wide, or over the bar, or both. This will kill anyone?s confidence. Perhaps the heckling United supporters aren?t helping. We are quite demanding and players are expected to perform regardless of their surroundings. I know many people will say something about his pay packet and how he should perform as a result. Well, to them I have this to say: Money doesn?t buy happiness, nor does it buy confidence. He is only human after all. Berbatov vs The Others Round 1: Berbatov vs Owen This is going to be short and sweet since Owen hasn?t featured much this season. Sadly for Michael, he has only made five starts and 14 substitute appearances. He has three goals and no assists. This season, Owen managed 20 shots and put eight on goal, with three resulting in goals. This gives him a goal percentage of 38 per cent and a shot accuracy of 40 per cent. Although his numbers are comparable to Berbatov?s, the small number of appearances and consequently shooting opportunities limits ones? ability to find a meaningful comparison. Interestingly though, despite the small numbers, the goal percentages and shot accuracy are fairly similar to Berbatov. Goal Percentage: Berbatov 35 per cent vs. Owen 38 per cent Shot Accuracy: Berbatov 37 per cent vs. Owen 40 per cent Round 2: Berbatov vs Tevez. The Final Fight. Right, so who performed better last season? Tevez only had 18 starts last season, and made 11 substitute appearances. Despite the difference in starts, both had a similar appearance record (Tevez at 29 and Berbatov at 31). Tevez only scored five goals. However he had more shots than Berbatov (66) and almost as many on target (21). Many people, including myself, wanted Berbatov gone and Tevez to stay. Tevez had a goal percentage of 24 per cent (Berbatov had 38 per cent). Tevez?s shot accuracy was 32 per cent compared to Berbatov?s 43 per cent. Many point to the fact that Tevez would have done better had he had more starts and acquired more confidence from a presumed increase in goal output. Let?s look at Tevez?s first season at United (pre-Berbatov). Tevez had a goal percentage of 25 per cent; 57 shots on goal, and 14 goals. That goal percentage is incredibly similar to his last season with United, so why did we all interpret him to have a good first season, and a poorer second season? That statistic is back; shot accuracy. In Tevez?s first season he had a 62 per cent shot accuracy. In his last season that number was down by half. Something shot dear old Carlos? confidence and his performance suffered. This tells us something interesting about us as supporters. We view shots on goal to be an indicator of performance as opposed to number of goals, or importance of goals. I definitely thought Tevez had a better first season, and that Berbatov was better last season when, in fact, the only statistic about either player that worsened in their second season was their ability to put the ball on target. Interestingly, Tevez has a 42 per cent goal percentage and 46 per cent shot accuracy with Manchester City. This is a marked improvement on his last year with United, but still short of his accurate days of 2008/2009 (albeit he is scoring more for City, but that is probably due to the change in position). *Berbatov in Context* My last point stems from a comment I read some time ago: Berbatov scores as much as he ever did, but his goals were never as important as the one?s Tevez scored. In essence, this is saying that Berbatov doesn?t score important goals, others do. This is a good point, potentially. 12 goals a season sounds nice, but if they are at the end of 5-0 drubbings then they are hardly useful unless the title comes down to goal difference (which it almost has several times). First, let us define what an Important Goal is. It is one that wins a game, gives a team a lead (go ahead goal) or equalizes. With that established, I will now compare Berbatov, Owen (again, briefly), and Tevez (last season). 2009/2010 ? Berbatov and Owen Once again, this will be short since Owen only scored three goals. Of Owen?s three goals, one is deemed important (winner vs. City). Berbatov currently sits on 12 goals and has exactly five Important Goals, and seven ?other? goals. He has no game winners, which is something that removes luster from his spectacle. Every single one of his Important Goals has been the first goal of a match, and the go ahead goal in four of them, and the equalizer in one of them. Of his twelve goals, 42 per cent are important compared to Owen?s 33 per cent. 2008/2009 ? Berbatov and Tevez Of Berbatov?s nine goals, four were Important, or 44 per cent. Tevez scored five goals and three were Important, or 60 per cent. Given how few goals were scored between them it is hard to point fingers and say who is better. Perhaps simply saying empirically that Berbatov had four Important Goals compared to Tevez?s three is sufficient. I have noticed something interesting though. Berbatov scored fewer Important Goals (ok, only one less) but we deemed him to be a better player last season. Perhaps it is this: three of the four goals were game winners, with one in the last minute of play. Two of those winners were the only goal to be scored in the game and were also go ahead goals (in other words, 1-0 wins). Since Tevez does not have enough goals during his second season to really give a good comparison, I thought I?d try to compare Tevez?s first season to Berbatov?s first season. Tevez had 14 goals in his first season. Six were considered Important giving an Important Goal percentage of 43 per cent. He had four go ahead goals, two of which ended up being winners, and two equalizers. Percentage wise, Tevez and Berbatov were fairly similar in their first seasons (in terms of Important Goals). The Deal Breaker ? Who steps up in big matches Ok, so it?s been established that Berbatov slightly out-performed Tevez in goal percentage and shot accuracy, likewise when you compare to Owen. Also, the Important Goal breakdown is slightly inconclusive, it just supports my argument that Berbatov isn?t playing badly with respect to what he?s shown in the past. The last question to address is; which of the important goals are scored in big matches? Definition of a big match: a match against Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, or Liverpool. Owen has one goal against Manchester City, a crucial game winner. Tevez has three over his two seasons (two in the first season, one in the second). Berbatov has zero. In fact, in big matches Berbatov has only one goal in his two seasons here (the third goal scored against Chelsea last season), compared with Tevez?s total of four goals. This points to a lack of confidence, as well as an inability to perform in high-pressure situations. Even Michael Owen has one ?big match goal? and he only has three goals to look at. What to do with Berbatov? After all this painstaking analysis it points to one fact: Berbatov is lacking confidence. A number of factors could be the cause of this. I can only guess, really. If it is the environment that he is in, then he should change clubs and move to an environment better suited to him. If it is something to do with him personally, psychologically, then perhaps a sports psychologist is the answer to his woes. Unfortunately his woes are United?s woes. Luckily enough though, he isn?t underperforming in terms of goal output and his output matches what it did for Tottenham, it?s just the process of getting there that is suffering. His shot accuracy has dropped by almost half and he is matching his goal output. One can only imagine how many he?d score if he could hit the target more readily.

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9th May 2010, 02:07	#2 (permalink)
MalteseRedDevil Reserve Team Player Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: In Goal Posts: 1,596	Nice Work. I think that in the end all the fan frustration boils down to the inflated transfer fee we paid for him

9th May 2010, 02:12	#3 (permalink)
Alex Banned Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: ____ Posts: 42,031	He hasn't lived up to his billing, there is no doubt about. United lost Ronaldo and they really need some attackers to step up, Rooney sure as fuck did, Valencia was great, Nani turned on the style in the 2nd half of the season, and well Berbatov was meh, AND WHEN UNITED NEEDED HIM HE WAS NO WHERE TO BE FOUND. FUCK THE CHELSEA GAME, HAD HE PLAYED WELL AGAINST BLACKBURN UNITED WOULD BE GOING INTO TOMORROW AS THE #1 TEAM IN THE EPL NO. 19 WOULD BE A FORMALITY

9th May 2010, 02:46	#5 (permalink)
AttackingFlair First Team Sub Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 8,838	He was clearly one of the best strikers in the league while he was at Spurs (06/07 at least). He got in the PFA team of the year ahead of Rooney. I'm not saying that certainly means he was amazing, but it was obvious he had a top class season.

9th May 2010, 03:01	#6 (permalink)
kietotheworld Banned Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 12,656	I think he should be performing better at United than he did at Tottenham, considering he is playing in a very similar position for us, and he has better players around him. With regard to the important goals statistic, and comparing him to Tevez, if you take away all of Berbatov's goals for this season we would be two points behind Chelsea. If you take all of Carlos Tevez's goals for this season, we would be 3 points behind Chelsea, and they would effectively be Champions. Further, Berbatov has only scored 2 goals against teams in the Top 10 of the premiership

9th May 2010, 03:20	#7 (permalink)
mswiss Reserve Team Player Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: pa Posts: 869	i wonder if his important goals with us are similar with what he had at tottenham, if you put that in and i missed it sorry

9th May 2010, 03:30	#8 (permalink)
CasaStreets Reserve Team Player Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Don't taze me, bro Posts: 1,034	While I think it is pretty good of you to have gone through the trouble to try and statistically analyze Berbatov's performance you have several confounding factors in your study that you have failed to account for. A) You've said nothing about his defensive tendencies, which is a substantial point given that he often looks like he couldn't care less and is part of a squad which otherwise works hard off the ball to pressure opponents. B) You have not factored in the difference in scoring capabilities between Tottenham and United. Indeed, given that we have scored 17 more goals than they have this season, it is a very relevant point. Shot accuracy etc... is not all that consistency is comprised of. A truly consistent player should be looking to increase his output in correlation with the performance of the overall team - or at least not score less (which the stats show he has). Also, I don't know if the statistics would be even but it might be useful to check goals per minutes at Tottenham and at United. However, I am not convinced that consistency between Berbatov's performances at Tottenham and his performances at United was ever the issue really at hand. I think that all transferred players arrive at United with a role that SAF looks at them to fulfill. I think what has happened is that many fans have become disillusioned because they doubt that the role SAF wanted Berbatov to play was one where he scored less than before, assisted less than before, and generally did fuck all defensively.

9th May 2010, 03:54	#9 (permalink)
Sojiro Formerly MST3K Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: "Sometimes you're not sure about a player," Ferguson says. "Sometimes you doubt. Sometimes you have to guess. Sometimes..." he waves an arm in the direction of the 18-year-old Rafael, "you just know." Posts: 4,246	Nice post Tw, it won't sway many but it was a good read. He just doesn't dominate games the way we want him to due to his price tag and the resulting expectations. I want him to do well but the signs aren't great and we need a scorer to be there in our prefered 4-4-2 or invade Wayne misses time in the course of a season or even when Wayne needs a rest.

9th May 2010, 04:47	#11 (permalink)
scholesy legend Incorrigible pest Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Outside the Box Posts: 5,593	Good job. Enjoyed reading it. Do you have stats including percentages of important goals and goals in big matches while he was at Spurs and Leverkusen? That should be good for comparisons too.

9th May 2010, 05:32	#15 (permalink)
mariachi-19 First Team Regular Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: I may be the devil, but i'm not a monster Posts: 13,342	To be fair Twisty, you can not include the cups all you want, but they're a significant part of every season. The fact is, he's been completely underwhelming in the Champions league for 2 seasons. I don't think he's even scored in the knock out rounds. Owen has four goals in very little game time including a hattrick against the German champions. Football is not just about the league, especially when you're playing for Manchester United. We're not scrapping for 4th place, or trying to go on a long winded cup run. Not to sound arrogant, but its somewhat of a disappointment if we're not at the tall end of these cup runs every season, and Berbatov has contributed very little in these games. In fact he's scored one goal in our two winning carling cup runs, and not a thing in the F.A. Cup 'this or last year', or the Champions league this year. This combined with his paltry goal return is what is turning people off. He's just simply been mediocre, and when you're pushing up and comers out of the squad, who could be doing just as good, somethings got to give. As I said earlier, contrary to what Sir Alex wants us to believe, I think Berbatov's future with Manchester United is effectively over after tonight. He's had his time to shine and come up short each time. Cut your losses and move on like we did with Veron. He's not a youngster who can grow and develop. He's in his peak years and failing miserably. Hopefully Milan are stupid enough to buy him off us.

9th May 2010, 05:46	#17 (permalink)
Ekeke First Team Regular Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 26,426	So you compared against Michael Owen and last season's Tevez. Are you going to compare him against Forlan next? When you compare him against other poorly performing strikers having bad seasons or players who are yet to prove themselves at United then I've no doubts he's doing okay.

9th May 2010, 06:25	#19 (permalink)
Bear Attack Reserve Team Player Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Montreal Posts: 3,434	No statistics or comparisons can justify Berbatov's performances this season. Many have been below par and he has failed to show up when the team needs him to step up the most.

9th May 2010, 06:58	#20 (permalink)
Redrage Reserve Team Player Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Mars Posts: 3,998	Twisted_Woody I officially love you. What Berbatov needs is a lucky break, a huge goal right in the dying minutes or a winner against the rivals. A goal of sorts that will endear him to the supports. And more importantly people need to cut him some slack. We all know you don't like him but he is United player and there is nothing you can do to change that. Rather than booing him and cutting his already short confidence even more short you're clearly not helping. Get behind him once and support him and see how it goes after all we should all look after the clubs best interest and not proclaim as to how you've never wanted Berbatov here and he is shit I've been vindicated yada yada.

9th May 2010, 07:09	#21 (permalink)
CentreForward Berba's bitch. A Bulgarian dEvil Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 4,840	Interesting read. How much time did it take to put those stats together? Anyways, I hope Berba's next season is better in terms of accuracy and shots on goal, but he will always divide the fans. The problem is, there's no middle ground with him on here. Either you love him or hate him. And it seems that's always going to be the case.

9th May 2010, 09:57	#26 (permalink)
Makki Banned Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: freguson y u rest the ginger prawn hes most importntat playr n he cn done us much betr! Sell all them stinkiers like carick/cuberley/ and old man giggs shud go to retardment castle! Posts: 10,806	Oh crap, I thought you were taking him apart so we could sell him part by part. Just kidding

9th May 2010, 10:19	#28 (permalink)
buckooo1978 First Team Sub Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 6,069	berbatov needs to go - despite all the facts/stats presented he's the only (non performing) striker we have that we can recoup some money on we need a reliable backup for rooney and with owen's fitness, kiko's lack of experience, who knows what chicarito and diouf are capable of? berbatov is impotent in front of goal but you could accept 12 goals or whatever he scored if he was creating goals in the way that people like bergkamp, cantona, zola or sheringham did. He has slowed down our play and when we really needed him (against chelsea, bayern, blackburn, city and even sunderland) he has been very very poor this is a crucial time for us as we can't rely on rooney to keep us competing on his own next season - hopefully nani can start next season like he finishes this, hopefully valencia can regain some of his good form next year and we can sort out the midfield problems with have with out of form carrick and anderson and hargreaves fitness the really crucial thing for me though is that we bring in a striker (maybe we have already?) to take some of the pressure off rooney - Berbatov has to be the one to go - he isn't performing and has never on a consistent basis has he? We could conceivably get 15 million or so for him. We wouldnt be wasting 80-100k a week on his wages and it would freshen up our attack (and hopefully inject some pace)

9th May 2010, 10:28	#31 (permalink)
Ixion First Team Sub Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 6,922	Why only include goals in the league? Do we not care about the FA Cup or Europe anymore?

9th May 2010, 10:39	#33 (permalink)
Striker10 "Ronaldo and trophies > Manchester United football club" Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 14,088	His first season he was a disaster BUT that might not be his fault. He was always a slow starter at spurs but got stronger as the season went on. I think if we as a club, asked him to play different to the way he did at spurs, we can't really blame him for that first season His second season has been a bit better. His general play is fine and I don't think this lazy talk is right because unlike the first year, he's getting more chances. The problem is he's missing them and again I don't think we've helped him. I don't think he enjoys his price tag. I'm not sure he's mentally a United player but talent wise he is. He might be someone we have to show a hell of a lot of faith in but if we can get him through his lack of confidence in himself, it could still prove to be a great bit of business by us.

9th May 2010, 13:47	#35 (permalink)
Rob Bowman Reserve Team Player Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 2,335	Great work with the stats. I had perused the actim stats awhile ago and concluded much of what you have. I think it very relevant to show % by team and goals per min. He is not as bad as some let on. Still at the end of the day this is United and therefore the expectations are for much more than that. This is the nature of the beast. Imho he needs to step up or find a new home, simple as.

9th May 2010, 14:00	#36 (permalink)
vuc First Team Serb Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Северна Страна Posts: 9,323	Good work with this. I think he should be taking more shots myself, out of interest how many more shots has Rooney taken this season?

9th May 2010, 14:14	#38 (permalink)
Jacob First Team Regular Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Stockholm Posts: 18,553	Sell Berba

9th May 2010, 16:02	#39 (permalink)
Name Changed weso26 Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Dublin Posts: 22,080	It's amazing where Berbatov is concerned, only league matches are ever considered. You'd think we're not involved in any other competitions. I don't understand that concept to be honest.