Betting on football

Solius

I've been calling a lot of things right recently and it's occurred to me that maybe I should start betting a bit on football. I've never bet on anything in my entire life, except at the greyhound races when I was about 12. My dog won.

Anyway, is this a good idea? I've always felt in the long run you will always lose money if you bet. Recently I've correctly called the following things:

- Balotelli scoring the winner against Spurs (after the stamp)
- Kevin Prince Boateng scoring the first goal against Arsenal (won my mate some money after he asked my opinion)
- Cavani to score tonight and also it to be 3 - 1
- City to beat Villa 0 - 1

Just off the top of my head. Would betting on things like this in future be worth it? What's the best site to use if so?

peterstorey

All those bets are usually offered at poor odds. You should bet on results in running with the option to lay and lock in a profit. Why? Because the starting odds are usually fairly accurate and the markets overreact to the first goal.

narnar

None of those predictions would return anything big unless you were prepared to put a lot of money on them.

Randall Flagg

The odd one here and there is ok, but I enjoy football without the need to have money on it.

I never bet at all. Dont think I have even entered a betting shop and I have no online accounts

StuCol101

My betting over the last 12 months has shown a profit on horse racing and a loss on football.
Mainly because with football the only way I can get odds of any interest is correct score or scorecast betting. Just betting on the match usually has undesirable odds to start with. Don't understand why anyone does it tbh.
A couple of quid on a scorecast can be fun though and adds to the game, especially if your guy bags the first goal.

peterstorey

You're not going to get rich quick but you're going to make money - instead of losing money.

711

The whole objective in gambling is to beat the bookmaker's profit margin, which even the best can only do by a fraction.

'Laying' an existing bet means you are making two bets on the same event, thus having to beat double the margin, making overall profit impossible in the long-term.

Stick to simple bets and get the best odds through someone like oddschecker.com, or put the time in watching the fluctuations on Betfair.

Avoid accumulators and niche markets, they have huge mark-ups you just can't beat.

Liam147

That's a myth by the way. I've only been legally/seriously betting since I was 18, and I'm up.

Few tips:
There are some markets that just offer little value, I can't think of them off the top of my head, but you'll figure them out when you keep losing on them.

Both Teams To Score markets offer a lot of value, it's where I've won most of my money this season.

Keep track of every bet, that way you know exactly how much you're up and down.

Learn about betting exchanges. Go on betfair to find out, it's a fairly simple way of betting. You get the option to bet AGAINST something happening. For example, I made a 'lay' bet at about 13/1 at the start of the season that Liverpool wouldn't win the league. COme the end of the season, they'll owe me a tenner.

Keep it small at first, especially as you say you've never bet on football in your life, that is, unless you have loads of money to throw about. Even now I keep my stake fairly low, yet I see people on here chucking £250 on a double.

Some obvious things there, but they're often ignored.

RK

Sound advice from Liam, some things to add which have worked for me:

- Shop around for odds as if you were buying something online - always try to take the best odds. Use sites like oddschecker to help. Betfair often have the best odds just before kick-off, but they'll take ~5% of your profit so factor this in.
- Bet on what you know, properly, you'll never beat the bookmakers otherwise.
- Don't bet In-Play unless you're watching the game.
- When you're more familiar with betting, "Asian" markets are a good target.
- You'll go through periods of losses.

Unfortunately, the most important thing is to be disciplined. Only bet when you've properly decided on a selection at a good price. Make sure you record how you're doing.

I've got a +15% return on investment (risk) so far after a bad patch. At the moment I bet mostly on PL football by judgement, one of my best markets is anytime scorers. I've also got one or two models in development to get a statistical edge... work in progress though...

Vidic_In_Moscow

I traditionally have one big bet a year, usually in the latter stages of the Champions League (never on United)

Last year I bet on the 2nd leg of Barca Vs. Arsenal.

I bet about £100 on the following (approx)


High Risk bet - 50% on Messi to score a hat-trick

Low-Medium risk cover bets -

30% on Barca to score 3+ goals
20% on Messi to score 2 goals

It was something along those lines, the bottom two I felt were very good bets, and if they came through they would cover all of the bets with about £20 on top.

Anyways, my safe bets both came through with Barca scoring 3 and Messi scoring 2, with plenty of time left for Messi to get a hat-trick. If Messi scores his 3rd goal, I win about £800. It was so exciting, then... Alves makes a run down the right wing... he is past every player, Messi is in the middle, the goalkeeper is committed to Alves, Alves has to make a 4 yard sideways pass and Messi will tap it into an empty net, I will win £800.. then Alves fucks up the pass and it goes in front of Messi, Messi doesn't score a hat-trick, devastating! I'll never forgive Alves for that!

snootyjim

If you're interested, best thing to do is just make a spreadsheet, and record a few fictitious bets for 4 weeks.

Check the odds, decide your stake, and chalk it up. You'll soon work out how accurate you generally are.

RK

Oh and more than anything else, I bet on United. All sorts of markets and I've easily had the most success with them.

You know more about United than most people, and you're probably subconsciously picking up on patterns in our play (both short term and long term). Use that knowledge.

Liam147

Pretty good system to cover yourself, of course, it's still not foolproof.

One I had at the beginning of the season was something like United beating Spurs, us winning 2-1 or 3-1, and Rooney scoring at any time, knowing that the last two could lose, and I'd still win by placing enough money on United winning.

Also, to add something else, pretty much summing up what others will say, look for trends and patterns. We all know that Rooney scores in bursts, that'd be the best time to bet on him in the goalscorer markets. Aguero's another one. He's scored something like 12 goals in Manchester and four goals in London, much like when Torres was at Liverpool, you'd be more wary of backing him away from home.


Same with me oddly enough, considering I try not to back United unless I'm certain. A guy I know used to back 'Draw/United' every week, picking up on the fact we were often drawing at half time, but won at full time. Suppose that supports RK's theory.

cj4_elmo

I only play the o/u market when it comes to football betting, and even than I only play overs. You can make some money if you're good at it, but you're also likely to lose it too. Bet within your limits and never ever chase a loss.Remember this two and you should be fine.

McLovin

Don't do multiples.

peterstorey

Bookie's margin is replaced by commission on betfair and a multipart bet of back and lay doesn't attract two lots of commission so that basic principle doesn't hold.

It's more useful to look at it as the ability to manipulate a bet in play given better info than was available when most punters laid down their cash.

For example I was looking to bet on Napoli to beat City back end last year and Chelsea yesterday. City was a straight before-the-off bet 5/2 which I let run since I felt they would see it out given what I was watching

Yesterday's 5/4 Napoli I didn't take before KO since I had a hunch Chelsea might start well. Again I didn't take the odds on them when Chelsea got the early goal which was a possible strategy since it was apparent it was all a bit too wild west.

Sw33t

Whack a couple of quid on an accumulator.

If you win = quids in!

bazalini

Betfair only take 5% of your profit it you are paying Premium Charge which kicks in if you make £5k

The thing with been good at betting is knowing when you are good and when to stop. Knowing your strengths and handling your weaknesses.

Solius

So I randomly decided to have a bet today. I bet £10 on West Brom to win

PJ

Nice one, what price did you get?

Jippy

I tend to do OK at football then lose the proceeds on darts betting. Rare I bet though.

Last one since the world cup I bet on was the Liverpool v United FAC match.

Had 7 bets with a £30 outlay.

Felt like it would a tight game and good chance of a set piece opening goal, so had a tenner spread across Skrtel, Agger, Smalling and Carrick (odd hunch) to score first.

Had a tenner on a red card and a tenner on United to win 2-1, 4-5 yellows and 10-12 corners...bit speculative.

Agger obviously came in and had £2 at 25-1, so ended £22 up. First time I have ever bet 'against ' United. Consider it an emotional hedge.

Not sure I fancy betting on the Spurs game though.

Pexbo

If it's any help, I'm the worst gambler in the world. I bet on gut instinct, which usually means long odds like "Nani to score first and United to win by 4 or more goals". I whack a tenner on it at 50-1 and I'm certain I'll win as it's a shite Wolves team and then Park scores first and we win 5-0 as expected and I receive nothing and feel like shit despite United winning 5-0.

My head bets well generally, but my heart doesn't. I know ful well I can make money fom picking obvious win and betting small over time will win me serious amounts but I'm a sucker for long odds.

The last sentence makes no sense grammatically speaking but I'm drunk and find it easier to spell the word "grammatically" than I do rewrite the above sentence. It makes sense eventually.

peterstorey

And short odds bets on top 4?

Pexbo

I'm still going to win that one.

Newcastle, said my friend Dutch friend Clare voy Ant.

peterstorey

Sounds like double Dutch for Mystic Meg. You can lay on betfair at 1.75 and cut your losses. £25 to the caf, you know it makes sense.

Pat_Mustard

I'm pretty much the same. I've probably betted 5 times in 10 years, virtually always a quid or two on really stupid gut impulses. Last time was when I heard Manny Pacquaio had been in a minor car crash before fighting Shane Mosley so I slapped a mammoth 2 quid on Mosley.

Its almost certainly just unfounded arrogance but I do sometimes wonder if I could make a semi-decent profit from sports gambling, as I'm intrinsically cautious with gambling, semi-informed about the sports I'd bet on, and spend a fuckload of time on the Internet.

Probably best I don't put it to the test given my propensity towards excess with beer and recreational drugs.

Jippy

I was pissed when I made those bets on the Liverpool game but it worked out OK. Yep, successful 'professional gamblers' are rare for a reason...