Are the Glazers preparing for a sale? | Saudis deny the news

Discussion in 'Manchester United Forum' started by RedTillI'mDead, Feb 5, 2019.

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  1. Feb 5, 2019
    #1

    RedTillI'mDead A Key Tool

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    Companies are often sold on a multiple of EBITDA. In recent years we have been letting contracts run down and spending has significantly declined. This would support the typical additional restriction on cost when closing in on a sale.

    Now we seem to be going the other way and renewing the star players, including Rashford who still has a couple of years to run. Could this be a sign that any buyer wants certainty on their first few years of investment. This would likely be the case in a sole buyer/ consortium situation with a high level of due diligence.

    Similarly a buyer might have insisted on removing Jose so as to see a different side to the team and what trojectory we could go on.

    This is highly speculative and could easily just be protecting against spiralling transfer costs/ hoping for the market to deflate.

    There was a meeting between the glazers and arabs recently so its possible, although I'd be surprised if the arabs were so precise on due diligence as there is often bigger plays at stake than purely the profitability of the club.
  2. Feb 5, 2019
    #2

    Jake Mine's too big and gay.

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    Valuing Manchester United will be a lot more complex then just applying a multiple to EBITDA from the last 3/4 years so I don't think your point about spending and contracts is that valid.

    However it is possible the glazers want to sell. We have been a cash cow for them for a while they may want to just cash in.
  3. Feb 5, 2019
    #3

    SungSam7 New Member

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    I don't know much about business but I would believe that the more contracts that haven't been renewed yet would decrease the value of the club. Having someone like De Gea tied to a 5 year contract is worth more than having him on a 18 month one.

    This of course depends on the popularity of the players. Like someone like Jones or Valencia might not affect the value to much, maybe a bit for Jones since he is English and the inflation for English players might push his value up.
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 5, 2019
  4. Feb 5, 2019
    #4

    Fosu-Mens Full Member

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    They will wait until the next broadcasting deal for EPL is done. With Amazon wanting to get into the streaming market the price is going to increase substantially, and the potential value of MUFC will also increase. More money to the Glazers. Unless someone puts £4b+ on the table, the club will remain under the same owners until 2021 when the new deal is negotiated.
  5. Feb 5, 2019
    #5

    crossy1686 Full Member

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    They probably would sell us for the right price, and it's probably been that way for a while. However, it worries me who could afford us at the 'right price'. We're talking the elite of the elite here, middle Eastern Royal families kind of stuff and almost certainly dirty money.

    Being a princes shiny new toy does not rest well with me at all. They all get bored at some point, what happens then?
  6. Feb 5, 2019
    #6

    youmeletsfly New Member

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    Don't really think so.

    The club is still making shitloads of money without being that good on the sporting side. If we recover on the sporting side the Glazers will make even more money.

    As long as the cow can be milked, you continue to milk it. And we're not in a position where they should fear that the club won't make money in the future.
  7. Feb 5, 2019
    #7

    AfroBuffalo New Member

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    Last I read, a prince of Saudi Arabia was planning a £4bn takeover - that was about 5 months back though.
  8. Feb 5, 2019
    #8

    George The Best New Member

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    As a publicly listed company the share price and market capitalisation should be as important as EBITDA I’d have thought. Last summer the share price hit $27.65 valuing the ‘company’ at around $5bn. It’s now down to around $19.10 a share, reducing the market cap by around $1.5bn. I’d have thought if they wanted out they would have done so last year nearer the top of the market. They might still be able to extract a premium from the right buyer though at around $24/$25 a share. Just my opinion.
  9. Feb 5, 2019
    #9

    11101 Full Member

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    I don't think so. I do think the Glazers have been open to selling ever since the old man died but i don't think they're changing anything to effect a sale, i think some of the recent decisions have been more down to the bond maturity dates and refinancing rates. They bought a load back early in 2015 and refinanced at a much lower rate. They might be considering doing the same again.
  10. Feb 5, 2019
    #10

    Revan Assumptionman

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    Yes, when we don't spend, they are planning to sell. When we spend, they are trying to sell.
  11. Feb 5, 2019
    #11

    Gator Nate New Member

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    Some months back, I had heard the $4bn number as well. Hadn't heard about anyone interested, though. A lot of us Tampa Bay Bucs fans wish they'd either sell Man Utd and pay attention to us, or sell the Bucs to someone who cares.
  12. Feb 5, 2019
    #12

    RedCurry Full Member

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    Spending is only normalizing after a few years of investment. Many financial analysts would've predicted that. I know I did. It is also increasingly becoming harder for the clubs to buy top players in their prime. The money just isn't there for any non-state-backed club. Wenger rightly predicted that in future more players will run down their contracts and there will be more swap deals than outright transfers. Until then, clubs with the best academies/oil money clubs are going to sweep the trophies. But massive 100m+ transfer fee and million+ monthly wages for multiple players just isn't a sustainable model. It's just a sign of times rather than an indication of sale.

    Having said all of that, your point is correct, that the club would be doing all of these things if they were planning on selling the club so basically I added nothing to this conversation.
  13. Feb 5, 2019
    #13

    Ish Lights on for Luke

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    When companies are sold, and if a multiple of EBITDA approach is applied - other expenses are all "normalized" through the process of due diligence anyway, with things like amortization and player contracts/state of assets - needing replacement or not etc. all taken into account.

    So what I'm saying is that it's almost impossible to tell from "normal" football activities like contract renewals etc. Growing commercial (top line) revenue from advertising and tv rights (over long contracts/periods) is where the value's at, anyway.
  14. Feb 5, 2019
    #14

    glazed Full Member

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    If I were them I'd look to sell. The amount of money required to maintain an elite football brand in the long term falls outside the realms of economic good value. You're in competition with billionaires who only care about success, and Spanish clubs that are practically national institutions.

    Chugging along just below that level is fine for most clubs, but would (does already?) represent a contraction for us. Selling is logical.
  15. Feb 5, 2019
    #15

    stepic Full Member

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    came in thinking there may have been some actual news/rumours.

    disappointing.
  16. Feb 5, 2019
    #16

    RedTillI'mDead A Key Tool

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    One thing I can almost guarantee is no concrete news or rumours will occur. Being listed we are simply not allowed to leak information, secondly potential buyers don't want anyone sniffing around given the huge legal and due diligence costs.
  17. Feb 5, 2019
    #17

    RedTillI'mDead A Key Tool

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    Your dig is fair, but it's simply trying to read for subtle changes outside of recent history.

    We seem to be making a push that wasn't there before and as a potential buyer I would certainly insist on managing the key man risk.

    For context of my thinking I've worked on numerous acquisition deals, many which have failed, a few that have succeeded and a few where its succeeded in another way. By this I'll point to the Arsenal case study as a similar example, Usmanov wanted to buy out Arsenal to realise his vision. Kroenke has blocked that. Usmanov may now sell to Kroenke and could make a decent profit. It wasnt the success he wanted, but he can realise his vision elsewhere.

    Anyway the point is ive seen how management can do everything to cut costs only to realise the potential buyers insist on certain changes to cover their buy side risk. Securing contracts in place in the case of football or offering shares in companies can be a good way to cover key man risk and secure the investment. The first few years is often the vital period with limited headroom in financial covenants thus certainty is important and then after that is room to manouevre, I.e. upside benefit.
  18. Feb 5, 2019
    #18

    Skills Snitch

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    If they dumped all their shares at the same time, the share price wouldn't stay at that value.

    To me, it seems like they are slowly exiting but they won't fully relinquish control for a very long time. They'll slowly, release more shares on the market over the next few years. And eventually an ambitious billionaire, will take them all up and buy them out.
  19. Feb 8, 2019
    #19

    George The Best New Member

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    The point is, for anyone to buy the club they would have to buy a controlling interest of the shares at a premium to the existing market price. Glaziers aren’t just going to dump their shares on the open market. If/when they sell it will be to a single bidder who is prepared to offer more than current market value imo.
  20. Feb 8, 2019
    #20

    Adebesi Full Member

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    I dont reckon they are looking to sell, and I dont think they will be actively looking to sell in the foreseeable. If they are going to sell it is going to take someone making an offer they cant refuse. Either a very, very large amount of money. Or Avi pulls back his duvet one evening and finds Woodward's head in his bed.

    (This post is a work of fiction. Its author does not condone any of the actions described within it.)
  21. Feb 8, 2019
    #21

    Bojan11 Full Member

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    Only a state could afford to buy us or a group of wealthy people. I just don’t see it happening for a long time.

    Obviously there are companies like Amazon, MS and Apple who can afford to buy us easily but they ain’t going to buy a football team.
  22. Feb 8, 2019
    #22

    Adebesi Full Member

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    No I dont expect it either. There was that Saudi rumour, something like that could very easily happen, to be honest I would rather take my chances with the Glazers.
  23. Feb 16, 2019
    #23

    Moriarty Full Member

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  24. Feb 16, 2019
    #24

    Water Melon before it dries out, eh

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    The bolded part: karma is bitch, will catch them one day.
    If the amount is right, the Glazers would sell imo.
  25. Feb 16, 2019
    #25

    arthurka Full Member

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    I have a strange feeling this might actually be on the cards.
  26. Feb 16, 2019
    #26

    FlawlessThaw most 'know it all' poster

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    Says it's dependent (or the price is) on Solskjaer getting us CL, so no pressure there lad.
  27. Feb 16, 2019
    #27

    Valar Morghulis Full Member

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    Read that up to the point were the writer mispelled the word "throne" under the picture of MBS. More speculation really which I expect will pop up every few weeks, but will this ever come to fruition...Who the feck knows.
  28. Feb 16, 2019
    #28

    izec Full Member

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    Disgusting
  29. Feb 16, 2019
    #29

    Moriarty Full Member

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    It's the online edition which, I believe, the subs don't really pay much attention to. Stories are dashed out in a hurry and often without due care and attention to the odd type. You see slapdash work in many online versions of newspapers, even the better ones.
  30. Feb 16, 2019
    #30

    BrianMcClair'sBarnet Full Member

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    I'm getting Khashoggi on my shirt.
  31. Feb 16, 2019
    #31

    Moriarty Full Member

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    Which bit?
  32. Feb 16, 2019
    #32

    mav_9me Full Member

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    Boy it's going to be a tough thing for a lot of supporters if this does go through. Hopefully he will fail the fit test?
  33. Feb 16, 2019
    #33

    BrianMcClair'sBarnet Full Member

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    All of it.
  34. Feb 16, 2019
    #34

    Moriarty Full Member

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    You must be joking. Fit and proper means nothing any more. The ability to pay does.
  35. Feb 16, 2019
    #35

    Water Melon before it dries out, eh

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    Ffs:(
  36. Feb 16, 2019
    #36

    nokillingmoths Full Member

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    United are self sustaining, but its the other bits that worry me. The interfering. The ties to politically unsavoury individuals or regimes. Becoming a pr project like city etc.
  37. Feb 16, 2019
    #37

    FlawlessThaw most 'know it all' poster

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    Only people that could afford to buy us are people who would see it as a pr project.
  38. Feb 16, 2019
    #38

    Moriarty Full Member

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    Same here. They call it 'sportwashing' and it isn't nice.
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2019
  39. Feb 16, 2019
    #39

    BrianMcClair'sBarnet Full Member

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    Sorry.:nervous:
  40. Feb 16, 2019
    #40

    Patrick08 Full Member

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    It will be torn to pieces :D.
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