Brexit | Government got rekt

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Silva, Jun 24, 2016.

  1. Jan 12, 2019

    Sweet Square Full Member

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  2. Jan 12, 2019

    sullydnl Ross Kemp's caf ID

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    "Do you back a second referendum - Peoples vote?" Yes - 46% No - 34% Dont know - 20%

    "Who do you trust on Brexit?" May - 34% Corbyn - 21% Neither - 45%

    Starting to think the UK as a whole has no idea what it wants.
  3. Jan 12, 2019

    Smores Full Member

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    I immediately mistrust any poll that has the Lib Dems as high 11% but those numbers aren't bad for a centre left alliance
  4. Jan 12, 2019

    Smores Full Member

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    This is where i get confused really because an amendment as such that passes as you say would in effect kill the bill but I'm sure you couldn't represent the exact same bill a week later so there'd have to be something different which the EU won't allow. Perhaps it can be superficial...

    I think this is why they were so concerned about Grieve's latest amendment, it provided a clear view that Mays deal won't pass prior to the vote.
  5. Jan 12, 2019

    Raees Legal Guardian of the Football forums

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    Silly poll with dumb questions. Was worse than the redcafe one.
  6. Jan 12, 2019

    Rajma Full Member

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    Hence, why it was incredibly stupid for referendum not to include clause which requires the vast majority to agree on the thing for it to be binding, something like 66% at least.
  7. Jan 12, 2019

    Paul the Wolf Full Member

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    There were supposedly 17.4 million different versions of Brexit but what unites all of them is that none of them like what the reality will be and they all wanted the same benefits of being in the EU and none of the responsibilities.
  8. Jan 12, 2019

    Sweet Square Full Member

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    yep.
  9. Jan 12, 2019

    sun_tzu The Art of Bore

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    60% more trust the maybot than Corbyn on brexit... Oooooh (dear) Jeremy corbyn
    Yes I think a superficial tweak would probably be sufficient

    As I say my real point of wtf happens is if there is a binding parliment motion ruing out no deal... And the legal default is no deal... What happens?

    Can parliment force a vote to make the government withdraw article 50?... Certainly one for the lawyers I think and tbh no idea if there is a majority to vote to enact that... Even if there is a majority to currently (it seems ) to rule it out
  10. Jan 12, 2019

    Stanley Road I.C.F. Member

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    I just received my letter from the immigration dept outlining what I have to do to stay after brexit :)
  11. Jan 12, 2019

    endless_wheelies feeling dizzy

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  12. Jan 12, 2019

    Smores Full Member

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    The bigger story in that article is there's 140 Labour MPs opposed to it. Makes little difference what Corbyn backs if they can't be convinced to vote for it, for some it would be the end of their political careers so a tough job and why the people's vote hasn't got their backing so far.
  13. Jan 12, 2019

    Adisa likes to take afvanadva wothowi doubt

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    There is never going to be a majority for a second referendum, at least not now.
    The choices are pretty clear.
    • May's deal.
    • No deal.
    • Revoke A50.
  14. Jan 12, 2019

    sun_tzu The Art of Bore

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    Problem being no majority for Mays deal
    Possibly a majority for no deal but in theory still the legal default if there isn't a majority for something else
    Almost certainly no majority to revoke a50 without a second referendum (for which there isn't a majority)
  15. Jan 12, 2019

    unchanged_lineup Tarheel Tech Wizard

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    Oh well. UK folks, maybe you can try to look on the bright side - perhaps we're careening towards a global Children Of Men scenario and this isolation lark is going to work out great for you!
  16. Jan 12, 2019

    sun_tzu The Art of Bore

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  17. Jan 12, 2019

    4bars Full Member

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    Stupidity and cowardice will bring to inaction and Britain will go to No Deal by default
  18. Jan 12, 2019

    Tarrou Full Member

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    or maybe the Tories just don't want a deal
  19. Jan 12, 2019

    Paul the Wolf Full Member

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  20. Jan 12, 2019

    Wednesday at Stoke Full Member

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  21. Jan 12, 2019

    Tarrou Full Member

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    thats the spirit neil
  22. Jan 12, 2019

    Hammerfell Full Member

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    Of course Neil Warnock voted Leave.
  23. Jan 12, 2019

    Wumminator The Special One!

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    fecking Warnock! I absolutely love it.
  24. Jan 12, 2019

    FlawlessThaw most 'know it all' poster

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    Have we ever had a 3 way vote in Parliament before, because honestly that might be the easiest solution. Whichever gets the most votes wins.
  25. Jan 12, 2019

    MoskvaRed Full Member

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    Unfortunately I think Colin is representative of about 40% of the country - bumptious, opinionated, ignorant, doesn’t like Johnny Foreigner...
  26. Jan 12, 2019

    sullydnl Ross Kemp's caf ID

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    Neil Warnock possibly the least surprising Leave voter in English football. He is also (entirely coincidemtally I'm sure) one of the biggest cnuts in English football.
  27. Jan 12, 2019

    stevoc Full Member

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    And Solskjær has won it!
    ''Once the country knows what they're doing and we get an agreement it will be straight forward.''

    Yeah once the two things are are not straight forward are out of the way it will be straight forward, great logic Neil.
  28. Jan 12, 2019

    SteveJ all-round nice guy, aka Uncle Joe Kardashian Scout

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  29. Jan 13, 2019 at 04:49

    Wibble In Gadus Speramus Staff

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  30. Jan 13, 2019 at 08:29

    Mb194dc Full Member

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    We should be happy there is unlikely to be a second referendum as it would be far more bitter and divisive than even the first one. Regardless of the result no one would accept it as valid and it could then cause other constitutional issues as well.

    I agree those are the options.

    In my opinion the Conservative party at grass roots level and at least 100 MPs are absolutely against May's deal. This issues are it is absolutely not Brexit as argued for in 2016, is likely designed so after a couple of years of failed trade talks there would be a second referendum, and is essentially remaining but without a vote on anything, and therefore vastly inferior just to staying in.

    The only person it actually benefits is Theresa May. Not impossible she'll get it through but it's also likely if she does the DUP will pull out of the confidence and supply agreement and the government will be toast anyway.

    No deal is opposed by 500 ish MPs in Parliament I think. It's difficult to see how the government could survive a confidence vote if they attempt to go this route. This would likely lead to a national government rather than a GE in my opinion and article 50 being revoked.

    Difficult to see how we avoid ending up at the third point ultimately at the moment. Things are fluid though.
  31. Jan 13, 2019 at 08:44

    sun_tzu The Art of Bore

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    Apparently Hillary Benn might withdraw the amendment that rules out no deal

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46831229

    Because it might succeed:houllier: and get passed by a few votes

    And labour see it as more important to deal a big defeat to may from her own brexiteer rebellion than you know actually pass a motion ruling out no deal

    The state of British politics
  32. Jan 13, 2019 at 08:47

    Mb194dc Full Member

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    How could it even work though from a legal point of view?

    Legislation has been passed, we leave on to WTO trade terms in parliament does nothing. I don't see how this amendment changes that.

    We already know 500/650 MPs do not support no deal. If those MPs can pass this amendment then they can also stop no deal happening anyway so it's pointless.
  33. Jan 13, 2019 at 09:31

    sun_tzu The Art of Bore

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    If an amendment passes blocking no deal it does to the best of my knowledge change things....
    Please keep in mind I am pretty sure there would be legal challenges and a lot of parliament protocol to wade through... But in essence I think this is what then happens

    The government is compelled to take all actions in its power to prevent a no deal and if they are seen not to then an MP could raise a motion forcing a vote upon specific action

    They could also hold the government in contempt of parliament

    All actions are basically
    1.Pursue new deal (EU dependent and the EU wont)
    2. Force a vote to make the government apply to extend A50... Likley EU says only for a ge or a 2nd ref... (Would need 2/3 votes to force ge so won't happen... But could force a yes no vote on a second ref)
    3. If it gets to a few days before march 29th they could force a straight vote to cancel A50 unilaterally

    Basically to stop this the government would have to submit a plan that said leave with no deal and get a commons majority for it

    Essentially it takes the narrative and options away from the government... Of course somebody would have to find a majority for extend A50 or even cancel A50 but with 20 or so remain conservatives then it's far more likley than the government passing a no deal majority
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2019 at 09:41
  34. Jan 13, 2019 at 10:57

    DomesticTadpole Doom-monger obsessed with Herrera & the M.E.N.

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    You can just imagine him saying, 'Abroad? I never go abroad. What's wrong with a caravan holiday in Cornwall? The missus loves it?'
  35. Jan 13, 2019 at 11:27

    711 Full Member Scout

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    Lots of sunday morning stuff as usual today. One thing I don't think is being considered enough it's what might happen if Barnier issues a helpful 'clarification' (definitely not a re-negotiation, oh no) on the backstop. Could be before the vote, but more likely soon after, assuming May loses. I doubt Barnier wants no deal, I don't think most MPs do, it could enable quite a few MPs to change their vote without losing face. I'm not claiming this as the most likely outcome, but it's a possible.
  36. Jan 13, 2019 at 11:32

    Adisa likes to take afvanadva wothowi doubt

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    Is anyone surprised Neil Warnock voted Leave? I'd be gobsmacked if he does not vote UKIP regularly.
  37. Jan 13, 2019 at 11:38

    Mb194dc Full Member

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    MPs already know they are going to do this with an exchange of letters from EU to UK. They don't carry any legal weight though so it's just fluff.

    Barnier and the EU definitely do not want no deal.

    They believe however, that due to the huge majority of MPs in Parliament that also do not want no deal it is very unlikely to occur. I actually think the withdrawal agreement, the ECJ ruling on the UKs right to revoke article 50 (unprecedented in 3 days) and the lack of will on behalf of the EU to renegotiate is all part of a strategy. They realise if they just sit and do nothing it's very likely Brexit will be cancelled one way or the other.
  38. Jan 13, 2019 at 11:41

    sun_tzu The Art of Bore

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    Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance.
    To be honest I don't know if that's a tall enough ladder for enough of the brexiteers who have gone public to climb off their very high horses
  39. Jan 13, 2019 at 11:42

    sun_tzu The Art of Bore

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    To be fair I'm surprised he bothered to vote
  40. Jan 13, 2019 at 11:53

    711 Full Member Scout

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    I too doubt the hard brexiters would change their vote, but the ones who say 'we must honour the referendum' could. There would still be brexit, just on May's deal. The problem is May would still need some Labour votes as well, and I admit to complete confusion on that, no one knows what Labour's position is on brexit, including them, it's an unanswerable question.