Discussion in 'Football Forum' started by Samid, Dec 5, 2017.
Why would they be out?
they all are.....
The quality has probably never been higher in the C.L - I can think 3 or 4 teams which I consider significantly weaker, but the other say 12 or so teams are all capable of winning the C.L
I think so too! There is no obvious favorite to the title. Of course some higher probabilities for some of these, but nothing too crazy. Who's your #1 favorite at the moment to grab the title, judging by % you expect it to happen? PSG/Bayern/Real/ManCity are the main candidates imo.
If we finished second we'd have had a 50% chance of drawing PSG or Barca
By finishing first we have a a 50% chance of drawing Real, Bayern or Juventus...
So erm, I guess there's a benefit to finishing first?
I'd put us as 6/5 favourites against Bayern and Juve, 5/6 in Real's favour.
Barca I'd put at 6/4 favourites over us and PSG evens.
The quality across Europe is at its most even it has been in a long time so I’m quite looking forward to seeing how this plays out. There should be some really, really interesting ties.
If the English teams all win today and top their groups, Chelsea could be in trouble. Then again at least of one the English group winners is also going to draw a tough opponent surely.
nah I think the English teams have definitely gotten better and will likely be contenders again, but at the same time Barca, Real, Juve, Bayern have all declined and aren't what they were 2-3 years ago, even last year. I mean Atletico didn't even make it through their group. PSG are the only big European side you can say are better.
which kind of results in even quality?
That just backs up my point about it being at its most even though
They (the CL bosses) want all the big teams to progress, we'll probably see a huge game in the next round but most of the so called big teams will draw lesser teams in round of 16.
d'oh, I thought you said "best", not even.
*runs to get coffee*
Oh no definitely not, peak Madrid of the last few seasons would walk to the final of this years CL. The fact they’ve dropped off, (could still turn it around later in the season mind you) makes it a more exciting and hard to predict campaign.
We play second leg at home. Huge advantage.
I want Bayern or Juventus, big European ties are awesome. I'd hate to get Shakhtar.
I honestly couldn't care less who we draw in the R16 fixture.
The whole point of being in the Champions League is to face those European giants such as Bayern, Juventus, Barcelona, Real Madrid, AC Milan etc, these are the fixtures that become classics and stay in the memory, so I'd be perfectly happy to draw one of the big guns.
What I would really hate, is to draw another English club at a later stage and get knocked out by them....
Chelsea will get Besiktas, no doubt.
That's a urban myth. Some guy (LMU; University of Munich) actually made some research and proved that there is no statistical evidence backing up this statement.
I appreciate that people nowadays try to make a scientific proof for football related subjects but playing second leg at home is an advantage, especially if your home record is as good as ours. Over last 5 years teams that played second leg at home went through about 75% of times in Champions League Last 16 and QF games. There might not be a reason for that in physics, chemistry or astronomy but it's true.
Yeah, that reason being second string teams playing big guns in R16. You might want to look up the stats for the big teams playing home first. You'd be surprised.
Having the first game at home can actually be huge. Get a result in your favour, and your opponent will be under huge pressure in the return leg. And of course, should it get into OT the odds favour the team which played at home first.
It also goes for QFs, at no point during last 5 years did the number of home teams in the return leg going through go lower than 2.
Well on the other hand if you don't actually get a result while playing at home in the first leg, more often than not you are done. The statistics for teams overcoming a home defeat in the first leg are abysmal.
It's much better to play return leg at home and this is why UEFA have a rule that 1st placed teams from group stages all play at home in the return leg - they don't get to choose, they don't leave it to chance, they all play away first and home second.
Well I'm sure Arsenal will be drawn against Bayern as usual. Ah wait...
On a serious note, some scary teams in the draw for United.
Always prefered having the first game at home, mostly because the away goal rule favours the away team heavily during extra time.
That LMU guy is an urban myth I would say. All relevant statistics support the statement that second game at home is an advantage.
He literally said statistical research and then your counter argument is literally just poor use of statstics (round of 16 games arent unbiased). Dunno why youre bleating on about physics and chemistry.
If you look back at qf and semi final matches over the years, theres no evidence to suggest teams playing at home 2nd have an advantage, one major reason is likely the away goals rule, so teams playing away 2nd can often put the tie to bed by scoring an extra away goal than their opponent
Isn't it as simple as saying it's an advantage but you still have to perform to fully realise it?
Is ir just me or is the CL incredibly strong this year? I'm looking at the teams we can get as group winners and there are very few that I'm actively wanting. A lot of very good teams and few gimmes for thr biggest clubs as there may have been in thr past.
I fancy United against anyone. Mourinho has ensured that United possesses the athleticism/physicality required for big games.
Yeah, definitely stronger.
A combination of increased competitiveness across European leagues and UEFA making changes to strengthen the groups - finishing 1st is no longer the advantage that it once was - aside from having the second leg at home - but even then, that advantage has diminished somewhat.
Makes for a better, albeit trickier competition.
If you look at the round of the last 16 you can expect that there will be an advantage for the team which plays the second game at home, not because they play at home, but because they already won their group and are tendentially the stronger team. Don't want to take the romantic away but the guys who work in the betting industry are no mourinhos or guardialos but can predict outcomes way better than them without having any relevant football knowledge. All they have is bunch of data...
I would prefer a team Mourinho doesn't see as superior or even equal to United (Real Madrid, Bayern, Juventus), because he tends to get overcautious, play too defensively and get f…, like Chelsea did with Atlético and PSG twice when he was there.
Sure, you're referring to all the big games Man City get a boost when many of their opponents most important get a suspension or injured? Although Knowing City, it may be true.
Why did I assume the draw was tonight? Slightly miffed now
The Lewandowski who is literally never injured and that James who is only one of many alternatives? Cristiano, who is also always fit?
Why has the new member rule been changed again?
To allow a non-elitist view point. It is a joke.
Yours is not non elitist but nonsense. Couldn’t you at least pick injury prone players? Do you follow football at all?
tbf I think it was more of a sarcastic facetious dig at City
I normally don't care about going through 1st or 2nd. I like playing the big guns (especially Barca), but regret not finishing top this time because feck playing PSG again (I'm not overly fearful, just bored of playing them).
It's all luck, anyway, last time we topped the group we still ended up playing PSG!
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