Discussion in 'Football Forum' started by Levo, Jul 28, 2018.
On St. Mirren +0.5 @ 2.04 tonight.
You’re making a mistake in thinking that favourites to win = below evens to win.
They’re favourites to win but above evens so technically double Chance (Liverpool +0.5) is more likely hence pool being faves to go through.
Ok so decided to have a look at ML odds for NHL games over the past two weeks as it seems that the home team win more than their fair share of games to make it profitable to just pick the home team every time. Had a look at home team profitability and over the past 211 games I'd have a profit of £31 if I had put £1 on every home team.
Same with NBA and over a smaller sample. The past 50 games would have given me a £13 profit by betting on the home team.
The biggest win though would be to bet the favourite in each NHL game, whether home or away. £1 on every single ML favourite over those 211 games would have me £74 in profit.
Just putting it our there if anyone wants to have a look themselves.
There is obviously the one caveat that we're near to the business end of both sports and so teams may well rest for playoffs or just tank (Mavericks and Magic!).
All my midweek bets:
Spennymore v Bradford PA, Spennymoor -0.25 @ 1.87
Oxford City v Woking, Woking -0.25 @ 1.88
Wycombe v Accrington, Wycombe -0.25 @ 2.16
Scunthorpe v Southend, Scunthorpe -0.25 @ 2.17
Plymouth v Shrewsbury, Plymouth 0 @ 1.93
Wimbledon v Peterborough, Wimbledon 0 @ 2.03
Rochdale v Oxford Utd, Oxford -0.25 @ 2.17
Middlesbrough v Preston, Middlesbrough -0.5 @ 2.20
St. Mirren v Kilmarnock, St. Mirren 0.5 @ 2.04
Ajax v Zwolle, Zwolle 3.25 @ 1.98
Interesting! How did you record the odds (when/whom)?
Manchester City vs Schalke - Handicap 0-1 win for Manchester City
Bayern Munich vs Liverpool - Both will score
Inter Milan vs Frankfurt - Both will score
Slavia Prague vs Sevilla - Draw or Away win
Sandhausen vs St Pauli - Draw or Away win
Venlo vs PSV Eindhoven - Away win
Dusiburg vs 1.FC Köln - Away win
Leverkusen vs Bremen - Both will score
Got this from one of the lads!!
was at a lunch with AP today and he gave a few tips for Cheltenham next week:
- Tuesday 1st race (novices hurdle) – Angels Breath 6/1 - said not to back Fakir D’ourdairies no matter what anyone says, even the owner doesn’t fancy it
- 2nd race (arkle chase) – Dei du Seuil 3/1 and Glen Forsa 4/1
- 4th race (champion hurdle) Buveur D’air 15/8 and Espoir Dallen 14/1
- 5th race (mares hurdle) Benie Des Dieux 11/10 – really fancies this one
- 7th race (national hunt chase) Ok Corral 3/1 and Discorama 10/1
- Wednesday 1st race (Ballymore novices) Champ 11/4 and Klassical Dream 7/1
- 2nd race (RSA chase) Delta Work 3/1
- 3rd race (coral cup) Dallas Des Pictons 10/1 – might go in the last race on Friday instead – back in either one he runs
- 4th race (champion chase) Altior 2/5 - wont be beaten
- 5th race (Cross Country) Tiger Roll evens – really strong on this one
- 6th race (Fred Winter H’cap) Band of Outlaws 7/1
- Thurs 1st race (JLT novices) Defi Du Seuil 7/3 and Kildisart 9/1
- 2nd race (Pretemps h’cap) Sire Du Berlais 6/1
- 3rd race (Ryanair chase) Monalee 9/2 – if he races in this one, also might race in Gold cup but wont feature in that if he does
- 4th race (stayers hurdle) – Paisley Park 7/4
- 5th Race (Brown Advisory Plate) Kalondra 25/1 – reckons this has a great chance
- 6th race (mares novice) Epatante 5/2
- Friday 1st race (triumph hurdle) Sir Erec evs – really fancies this
- 3rd race (Albert Bartlett hurdle) Nadaitak 20/1
- 4th race (gold cup) –Bellshill 10/1 especially if Ruby is riding and Bristol De Mai 33/1 if soft ground. Don’t bet on Presenting Percy regardless of who tips it
- 7th race (Martin Pipe hurdle) Dallas Des Pictons 6/1 – might go in the 3rd race on Wednesday instead – back in either one he runs
Flashscores gives you the odds for the past 4 or 5 days plus another site i found gives you the historical odds from previous games. Only went back to mid Feb for the NHL games. I go by the odds on flashscores for making the picks as well. Last night, 7 games 5 favourites, 1 underdog and 1 game to OT (which the favourite won). +£3.75 for the night. I know very little about NHL hence the really small stakes (treating it more like a long term investment rather than a quick win). May give it a go for a couple of weeks until the playoffs and see how I end up.
AP knows feck all about betting, same as lots of jockeys.
Sheffield Utd v Brentford, Brentford 0.25 @ 2.35
St. Albans v Weston-super-Mare, St. Albans -0.25 @ 1.93
Do you bet on the horses at all or just football?
Yeah think it's worth a try. The two things that immediately came to my mind is sample size and if you can realistically get those odds. I think their is a fair chance someone has done something like this before, whether it is out there and available though.....
Couple of bets for todays 15km Biathlon @ 1530 CET.
Oberg VS Vittozi @ 2,06: Vittozi is young, and shoots very fast, leaving very little room for error. 6 misses sunday, and I think she will struggle after that. Oberg is normally a really solid shot, and beat Vittozi by almost 1 minute in the track on the 10km sunday, so might afford a miss more than Vittozi.
Røiseland to win @ 9,50: Røiseland has been in fantastic form, but shooting badly last two-three races. Normally not bad at shooting, and on this form she will be hard to beat if she can hit 17-18 of 20. Was favourite for the the first race, to I'll try this odds. Small bet on top 3 to recover stake for 1st.
Tomorrow I'll place a live bet against favourite JTB before the last two standing shootings if he is still in it. Been shooting really bad and has got to him mentally, so think he'll eff it up again tomorrow on the 20km.
Big fan of Waldhof Mannheim -1.5 @ 2.1 kicking off at 18:30. Top of the league vs bottom, with Waldhof also having great away form, bringing in 2+ goal margins in majority of their games. BTTS no also looks a good bet.
You did us well last time, I'm going to tail you on this one as well!
When the stats are so good like that, it means we lose our bets
Oberg 1st, Vitozzi 2nd!
Never that exciting though, Oberg two shootings ahead and shot 4 full houses, Vitozzi very lucky as a bunch of shots went in off the edge, still 24 seconds behind in the end.
Røiseland keeps shooting below par, 4 minutes today and finished 21st, still a nice profit.
Waldhof Mannheim's line up's looking strong!
Both National North matches tonight got pulled by almost all bookies. Anyone knows what's up?
Both postponed, nevermind.
Oh I've tailed anyway
Isn't that supposed to be a good thing?
Yeah, just meant I'd already tailed before the lineups came out. Blind betting
Benie Des Dieux..... Annie power part 2
Sick I reckon the mares race at Cheltenham has cost me about 5 grand with AP and BDD falling at the last when cruising
In 2015 had 20/1 for the 4 timer then this today..... sick
How did everybody else do on day 1? Hopefully better than me....
Got the first winner at Cheltenham with Klassical Dream @7.00. Just also won with PSG to win 4-0 @10.00. Choupo-Moting got the 4th on 91 minutes.
@luke511 4-1 up! You're the real MVP!
5-1 FT, happy days!
87th, 89th and 94th minute winners in my favour making for a great night.
Had £20 on Klassical Dream, that was my only bet for the day. I think I'm just going to do the SkyBet offer and bet in the first race only all week.
Was on Espoir D'allen, 16/1
Had £20 on the winner in the first and £50 on BDD so was looking like a great day...
Still, small profit with a free bet or two to use today so could have been worse.
Betway offer up to £10 on the last race too.
Yeah, amazing call again. I saw it just too late and considered something in-play but left it.
On Battleoverdoyen in the first today at Cheltenham.
Doesn anyone what the odds would have been if you backed United, Ajax, Porto and Juve to qualify after the first leg?
Taking Seddon in the opener at Cheltenham today 8 places ew @20/1. The SkyBet free punt going on Mullins/Ruby.
You'd be handed the keys to whatever bookies you backed that in. I was in a Hills store with a customer yday who had the 1,2,3 in the Champion Hurdle as ew singles. Never seen a bloke so glum to collect around 400 quid. The tricast paid 22k.
I got a free bet for it, I'm just going to follow you I don't have a clue about horse racing. Hopefully we win!
In-play offer on Liverpool Bayern.
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