Iran and a possible invasion

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by 4bars, May 9, 2018.

  1. May 9, 2018
    #1

    4bars Full Member

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    I really like the Trunp thread and I read a lot of possibilities on a Iran invasion. I am no expert and I have some questions:

    Why it would be so disruptive?

    I even read that it would be similar than a world war. Is not over considering the importance of Iran? No country backs Iran up. They have the most powerful country in the world as enemy, has as an enemy Israel, arguably the nation that has more influences in the western world and has as enemy SA, the most powerful Arab nation and that is clearly winning the balance of power in the region

    All other countries in the region had been taken care of little by little. Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Egypt, Lybia are in tatters. Jordan is the only one unscathed and probably ignoring everything that happens around them. Turkey is a US ally, Iemen is getting destroyed by SA, US, UK and France (?), Qatar is already under sanctions from SA and his Allies. Iraq is basically alone

    Importance because of the oil? Sure it has lots of reserves and the oil will go up. But SA and UAE sure they would gladly increase their production if that would mean an invasion on Iran and is not that the barrel had never been way over 100$

    Russia. How much saying has? We have been seen what US, UK and France cared in Syria and I don't think Putin has enough power/influence to say anything on a region that is way far from his area of influence.

    I definitely not know anything about it and I know there are many experts in the Arab region. Could you guess the chances of such a thing to happen, rough implications and who most likely would back up Iran and Us and in which way?
  2. May 9, 2018
    #2

    VorZakone What would Kenny G do?

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    Iran is more powerful than the likes of Syria, Egypt, Libya etc. They won't be invaded.
  3. May 9, 2018
    #3

    Massive Spanner Thinks Geoff Shreeves has one

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    It went really well with Afghanistan and Iraq so why the hell not?
  4. May 9, 2018
    #4

    Raoul Admin Staff

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    I doubt an invasion would happen, mainly because Trump campaigned partly on why the Iraq invasion was a bad idea. He is probably interested in a more stringent, bilateral deal to get the Iranians to completely give up their program, under threat of of war if they don't. That's generally been Trump's MO both in the business world and with North Korea. "Sign a deal or I will destroy you".
  5. May 9, 2018
    #5

    4bars Full Member

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    I agree in your first part, but they would not stand a chance anyway
  6. May 9, 2018
    #6

    Van Gaalacticos Full Member

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    Russia and China would presumably back Iran.

    Israel and Saudi Arabia would I assume back the USA.

    Can't speak for France or the Germans but I feel the UK would be in a difficult position due to our considerable ties to Saudi Arabia.

    I can't see a full on war taking place myself. But if Iran did start a war now it would in some ways prove Trump was correct to distrust Iran, violate the current deal and re-assess. As much as many believe he is awful, I genuinely believe Trump does what he thinks is best for the American people. I really don't see what specific reasons people have to seemingly hate him.
  7. May 9, 2018
    #7

    4bars Full Member

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    Everybody keeps repeating that Iran is very powerful. In which sense? how powerful is his army to claim that "power"?

    Also about reliable allies. If US would invade with Israel and SA backing up, do you think China or Russia would face US + allies in an open war?
  8. May 9, 2018
    #8

    Wednesday at Stoke Full Member

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    Russia is an ally to Iran. For that reason alone an invasion is moot.
  9. May 9, 2018
    #9

    4bars Full Member

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    Current deal is off not because of US and is US that should be distrusted after Iran had to get read of almost all the centrifuges, nuclear cores and uranium reserves (plus all other things they complied). After all that, US goes "nah feck that" and backs up? who is the untrustworthy?
  10. May 9, 2018
    #10

    4bars Full Member

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    So was Syria
  11. May 9, 2018
    #11

    Wednesday at Stoke Full Member

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    There's no direct US combat in Syria. There are no rebel groups in Iran to fight a proxy war either. Iran has an elected government apart from the revolutionary guard, its a bit more sophisticated than a banana republic like Syria, Libya or Iraq with a family dictatorship.
  12. May 9, 2018
    #12

    MTF Full Member

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    It would probably be 2x or more as costly and messy as Iraq was. You see the US winning whatever 'conventional' part there were of the conflict, although it would be their largest operation since Vietnam I guess?

    It would tie up significant US forces on a global level and weaken their ongoing defense assurances to Eastern Europe, South Korea, Japan, etc. For example, just the 2003 Iraq invasion tied up 4 out of 10 total US Army divisions. Invading Iran would probably tie up the large majority. Economically, just the effect on the federal budget would be really bad, not getting into what it would do with oil prices.

    Its such a terrible idea that it gives me some confidence that it won't happen. Excepting maybe some of the crazy Iran hawks, I imagine even the realistic hawks' attitude is more that Iran's perceived transgressions should be punished by force/attacks, but not by an invasion.
  13. May 9, 2018
    #13

    amolbhatia50k Sneaky bum time

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    What has the US done exactly in Syria? The missile strike was a miniscule affair in the grand scheme of things.

    Also, why would the US invade Iran? What's the logic behind it?
  14. May 9, 2018
    #14

    4bars Full Member

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    It was a bombardment last month, isn't? and yes, I know is different Iran than the others, that is why I am asking so many questions
  15. May 9, 2018
    #15

    Raoul Admin Staff

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    They are well equipped to deal with an insurgency if the US were to invade. Their IRGC Quds Force operatives are well trained after having been active for decades (most recently in Iraq and Syria). The Iranians however would be completely helpless if Trump were to decide on airstrikes from Qatar and Turkey.
  16. May 9, 2018
    #16

    4bars Full Member

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    I agree, but what was the logic behind the invasion of Iraq?
  17. May 9, 2018
    #17

    Skills Snitch

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    From what I can tell Iranian nationalism is a lot stronger than a lot of the other middle Eastern countries - that were already divided by ethnic differences. I reckon an invasion of Iran would see almost every man, child and woman in the country armed to defend itself and their Shia identity.
  18. May 9, 2018
    #18

    Water Melon before it dries out, eh

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    North Korea has nuclear weapons now. Once they got them, they immediately brought the tension down and started to cooperate more closely with South Korea. Brilliant strategy. Iran also know quite well that the US government can not be trusted, so if they shut their nuclear programme down completely, their government will be overthrown. Libya under Gaddafi made this mistake and it cost them dearly. Iran will not bow down either to US or Israel, and if there is a full-scale invasion, I can see Russia and China siding with the Persian state. Hopefully, there will be no other war though. We have had enough of those.
  19. May 9, 2018
    #19

    The Firestarter Full Member

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    Invasion should be out of the question. The US would lack the 10:1 advantage that would guarantee easy victory with minimum casualties. If anything , it would be air strikes. But the big problem is not military in nature. It is the irreparable damage to the world image of the US. Nobody wants another war in the ME.
  20. May 9, 2018
    #20

    Wednesday at Stoke Full Member

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    The bombardment was down to Assad gassing his own people. Iran has a government and full control of its territory so any aggression will likely start a full-scale war that the US has to fight itself.
  21. May 9, 2018
    #21

    SwansonsTache incontinent sexual deviant & German sausage lover

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    Nearly a million refugees and descendants of refugees from Afghanistan in Iran.

    Somehow I don't believe that USA, Saudi and Israel will be first in line to grant them asylum when they inevitably migrate during the conflict.

    All three of them will be very happy and eager to fight the war and bomb the country to pieces though.
  22. May 9, 2018
    #22

    4bars Full Member

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    Something to be proven. But yes, would be a completely different reason. The thing is that being Russia there, did not stop the stike. I am not trying to compare situations, just that there is a madman as president and he looks like he is playing with the idea and does not need much reasons even if russia is in the middle
  23. May 9, 2018
    #23

    Raoul Admin Staff

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    Yeah but they will have to give them up completely in order to get sanctions relief. Its the sanctions that are killing them and Kim badly needs foreign investment and a lifting on trade restrictions to pull his country of an economic ditch. In order to get there, he will have to give up whatever nukes he currently has and completely destroy all future development. The power is all on Trump's side on this one.
  24. May 9, 2018
    #24

    MTF Full Member

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    You're right in pointing out that a 'logic', or more specifically a genuine casus belli doesn't seem to be necessary for a US invasion. But that's why me and others point to the difficulty/cost in doing it as one reason that makes it unlikely. When they asked the military if they could invade Iraq in 2003 they answered 'sure, actually did that just 12 years ago, was a pushover'. I'd imagine that if you ask them about Iran the tone would be more that it would be nowhere near as easy.
  25. May 9, 2018
    #25

    bleedred Full Member

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    This is just like the supposed Syria invasion last month.

    Trump is taking desperate measures to keep mueller of the news. Its as simple as that.
  26. May 9, 2018
    #26

    Van Gaalacticos Full Member

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    Seems a fair point but not knowing every detail it could be as Trump said that Iran are causing military issues throughout the region and are therefore getting away with all sorts and still perhaps with nuclear warhead capability ambitions. If Iran was to restart it's nuclear facilities it would surely end with an air strike from Israeli or US forces and perhaps a bit of posturing from Russia and China but they surely aren't going to risk full on nuclear war over Irans nuclear capabilities...are they?
  27. May 9, 2018
    #27

    Raoul Admin Staff

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  28. May 9, 2018
    #28

    4bars Full Member

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    Oh I am sure would not be as easy as Iraq already lost a war a decade ago and was under sanctions. As well Iran was already more powerful than Iraq pre-gulf war. And sure would have way more implications. That is why I like to read your and others opinions.

    Still being Trump and his narcissism and trying to get in history books, I don't see it as unlikely as many here and less after US withdrawal
  29. May 9, 2018
    #29

    Van Gaalacticos Full Member

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    Mind blown re: North Korea, never considered that, at all.

    I' not sure the same threat poses Iran as did Libya, do you think Trump would try to overthrow Irans government if they completely stopped producing the capability for nuclear weaponry?
  30. May 9, 2018
    #30

    4bars Full Member

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    Trump can say whatever. US experts, EU experts, Israeli experts says that Iran is complying 100% and SA is causing more military "issues" than Iran (US and EU is causing more military issues in the area by the way)

    If Iran was to restart it's nuclear facilities is on US, as the deal was to prevent precisely that. And who is US or any other country to go against any sovereign decision on their army, anyway the only country that used nuclear power was US itself. The only one that put the nuclear risk had been US, not Iran
  31. May 9, 2018
    #31

    Fully Fledged Full Member

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    They did it before. America not Trump of course.
  32. May 9, 2018
    #32

    Kentonio Full Member Scout

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    Iran has been preparing for decades for a potential conflict with America. They are wise enough to understand they could not win a conventional war, so they've been preparing for asymmetrical warfare, designed to hugely inflate the number of American deaths to try and make the US lose the political will to keep fighting. They border one of the busiest sea lanes in the world, and if the US attacked would almost immediately take action to shut that down. Mines, small attack boats that are very difficult to stop, attacks on US ships, insurgent attacks on US forces in the wider region etc etc. Any invasion would face a well trained and disciplined army, and millions of militia intended to make every step into Iran be paid for in blood.

    You need to remember that Iran isn't like pre-war Iraq, a country being oppressed by a brutal dictator. The Iranian people are actually surprisingly pro-west, but that will very quickly change if the west launches an invasion of their country.

    An invasion would be insanity taken to a new level. The death toll on both sides would be unrelentingly brutal, and you can expect Russia to help Iran as much a possible without directly joining the war. Anyone cheerleading for a war there is out of their fecking minds quite frankly. Even missile or air strikes are likely to lead to some horrible consequences.
  33. May 9, 2018
    #33

    Van Gaalacticos Full Member

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    It won't be those same experts advising Trump though will it, he will have presumably had differing intelligence to that and doesn't believe this deal goes far enough or isn't working. The US hasn't used nuclear weapons since ww2 and that is still a debatable issue whether they should have been used in the US and elsewhere, nobody id assume wants it again and the US amongst other nations including ourselves are doing their upmost to make sure they are not the target of any future tragedy of that kind. I think Trump is so completely different from past US presidents you can't really use the USA's previous invasion/war history as a form guide in that sense.
  34. May 9, 2018
    #34

    4bars Full Member

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    When I say experts, I am saying experts that they are supervising the deal, not Bolton or other guys that they have an agenda and certain phobias surrounding Trump

    The US used nuclear weapons, nothing is debatable in that. And they did it on civil population. Twice.

    OIbama did the upmost to prevent Iran to get the nuclear bomb. Trump (so US) broke that deal and prevented that Iran will EVER sign a deal like that again.
  35. May 9, 2018
    #35

    pocco loco

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    I read the Trump/N.Korea/Syria threads now and then, though I'm not really clued up on politics in general and don't take much interest most of the time.

    However, I'm always seeing people panicking about Trump invading/bombing places and so far it's been nothing of the sort. He seems to want everyone to think he's a mad man to strong arm other countries into standing down, as he seems to have done with N.Korea. I suspect he'll get what he wants here but might just look insane until it's successful.

    Just my take on it from the outside looking in.
  36. May 9, 2018
    #36

    Ramshock CAF Pilib De Brún Translator

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    The west is fecked. Trump needs to be gotten rid of asap
  37. May 9, 2018
    #37

    4bars Full Member

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    Agree in the last 2 paragraphs, but what do you base that military preparation on? would like to have some sources or is just assumptions?
  38. May 9, 2018
    #38

    Kentonio Full Member Scout

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    It's based on various quotes from Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders and politicians over the years, and from intelligence reports on Iranian military capabilities. If you want a nice summary of the situation, there was a nice article a couple of weeks ago that does a good job of summing it up.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-parsi-war-with-iran_us_5abd46fde4b055e50acc2e82
  39. May 9, 2018
    #39

    Florida Man Cartoon expert and crap superhero

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    Knowing what I know about Special Forces, it's very likely we have boots on the ground there already.
  40. May 9, 2018
    #40

    4bars Full Member

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