Jobs in the Future

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Mike Schatner, Feb 4, 2018.

  1. Feb 4, 2018
    #1

    Mike Schatner Devil's advocnut

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    Not sure if this as been discussed on here or not but what happens when a lot of lower paying jobs are automated or phased out because of technology?

    There is already a tread in the general about banks closing high street sites down as more and more people bank online and/or use cards. Companies like Amazon are slowly devastating the high street. They do employ a lot of hourly paid workers in distribution facilities but they are slowly automating those as well.

    Most of the job losses are at the lower end of the skill and pay scale but what happens to these people in the future?
  2. Feb 4, 2018
    #2

    Raoul Admin Staff

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    Its going to require a massive retraining effort to gradually transition people from manufacturing to higher skilled jobs that can be done remotely.
  3. Feb 4, 2018
    #3

    Nytram Shakes Full Member

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    Ive had this discussion with a few people of here, theirs points of view that ranges from:
    • Its no issue new jobs will always be created to replaced those that are lost from Automation
    • If lower paid workers are losing their jobs its their own fault for not been better educated and been in skilled jobs their are enough opportunities these day.
    • This is why we need to introduce 'the Living Wage'.
    For me i don't think their is an answer, certainly not an easy one. Its something as a society and as a world we are currently just burying our heads in the sand and hoping will sort itself out like with over population.
  4. Feb 4, 2018
    #4

    Massive Spanner Thinks Geoff Shreeves has one

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    it's not just the low skill jobs, though. Low skill jobs have been lost to machines for the last century, this is nothing new. High skilled jobs are the issue, many are at risk in the very near future, not when AI comes in, but with the automation in machine learning that's already here. Why hire accountants to figure out how to manage your business books when this automated machine that has soaked up thousands of accountant's previous processes can do it for you in milliseconds. Companies have already started it. We are unknowingly training these automated machines to do our high skilled jobs far better and faster than we ever could.

    For the last century humanity has continuously eliminated the problem with machines taking low skilled jobs by educating more and more people, well.. we're kinda fecked now because the machines are going to take those jobs, too.
  5. Feb 4, 2018
    #5

    sun_tzu The Art of Bore

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    Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance.
    Or we manage to automate so much that our time is free to pursue happiness whilst machines figure out how to better use the planets limited resources and provide for us as we copulate, spend time with friends and family and you know just enjoy life...

    Yes I'm a glass half full kinda guy
  6. Feb 4, 2018
    #6

    Sweet Square Full Member

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    Fully Automated Luxury Commu............
  7. Feb 4, 2018
    #7

    caid Full Member

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    Jobs will just be redefined
    Looking after your kids or older parents will be a 'job', going to college and getting an education will probably be a 'job'
    People will probably work shorter hours in hospitality or care based jobs -
    people will have more free time to sit in cafe's, go to classes or take part in community care type things (both as a provider and as a user).
    Art and culture and the creation of new things will probably remain the domain of humans.

    That's the optimistic, humans are basically lovely and decent, view

    The alternative is grim
  8. Feb 4, 2018
    #8

    maniak Full Member

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    A big world war to get rid of the surplus humans.
  9. Feb 4, 2018
    #9

    sun_tzu The Art of Bore

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    Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance.
    What a waste of soylent green
  10. Feb 4, 2018
    #10

    Ramshock CAF Pilib De Brún Translator

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    This melds well with my Santander/Banks thread. I think its going to be a vast problem to tackle for my sons generation.
  11. Feb 4, 2018
    #11

    Revan Assumptionman

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    Shorter working hours and a decent universal basic income should be a start. Long term, I guess significantly higher education (like all people having the equivalent of today PhD) in addition to constant retraining. No idea if that will be enough with Machine Learning improving this fast, and likely robotics will follow and take a similar road.

    In my opinion this might just be the biggest problem of this century, even bigger than global warming.
  12. Feb 4, 2018
    #12

    Mojo_ its more fun being a feeder

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  13. Feb 4, 2018
    #13

    Classical Mechanic Full Member

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  14. Feb 4, 2018
    #14

    Mike Schatner Devil's advocnut

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    i wouldn't disagree with that. The worrying thing is most of the impacted people are lower paid, less educated and more vulnerable.
  15. Feb 4, 2018
    #15

    Drifter American

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    This happening at pace .Just have to look at Amazon and their checkout free stores. Won't be long till other retailers follow.
  16. Feb 4, 2018
    #16

    Mike Schatner Devil's advocnut

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    Amazon opened a facility near us about four years ago. That facility still had people walking the isles and picking goods. The next generation of facilities did away with isle walking and the pickers sit in one spot while robots bring the shelves to them. No doubt the next generation will do away with the pickers and replace them with a robot. So in the space of 4-5 years an amazon facility will have gone from 3,000+ workers to maybe 500.
  17. Feb 4, 2018
    #17

    Kasper Full Member

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    The thing is, such a process should've already been visible the last 50 years - and yet it hasn't. With the technological progression we've seen on every level it's ludicrous that we - as humans - still work that much. Even in rich Western societies we cling to outdated concepts of 40 hours (or more) weeks - and yet those can still consider them fortunate as the other half of the world is even worse off.
  18. Feb 4, 2018
    #18

    Mike Schatner Devil's advocnut

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    And who exactly is the we? The likes of Jeff Bezos is not automating Amazon so the collective we can sit around all day.

    It really is a huge problem for society to grable with in the next couple of decades. Automation is also a huge transfer of wealth problem.
  19. Feb 4, 2018
    #19

    sun_tzu The Art of Bore

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    Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance.
    Meh... I'm rich... I'll be ok... I'm waiting for my super powered robot suit I can download my conscious into and live forever... munching on the soylent green of those that can't afford such super robots.

    In all seriousness though I kinda believe in humanity and that ultimately we will find s better model... I mean in the grand scheme of time it's the blink of an eye since we had kids in cotton mills and factored in killing a person per floor on a skyscraper so I'm still going with glass half full and it's gonna be ok... or I'm gonna get my super robot suit... either way I'm all good about it
  20. Feb 4, 2018
    #20

    acnumber9 Full Member

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    Big corporations will have to consider whether the savings they make on automation are worth the loss in revenue they’ll experience from people not having the money to buy their products.
  21. Feb 4, 2018
    #21

    Mike Schatner Devil's advocnut

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    It is an interesting conundrum.
  22. Feb 4, 2018
    #22

    C.M.P 2014 Grand National Sweepstake Winner

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    I'm taking delivery of a couple of new CNC's this week, I will get almost 24 hours production with minimal human intervention. Conversational programming and on machine probe inspection doesn't leave much for a skilled man to do all day, Ioading material and emptying the parts catcher will be done by low skilled operators and with the way cad-cam software is going the skilled man won't be necessary sooner rather than later.
  23. Feb 4, 2018
    #23

    Cheesy Bread with dipping sauce Scout

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    Although automation will obviously lead to new jobs within that sector in regards to maintaining robots/new technology etc, it will also undoubtedly lead to a lot of jobs becoming increasingly redundant.

    Universal income is (obviously) the best solution. Ideally something like this should be good - most people I'd imagine would on principle like the idea of having more leisure time, and of no longer having to do work which is boring/mundane when it can be done by technology.

    Part of the problem will be selling universal income. While it'll certainly have an element of support, there'll be a lot of people who look at it as free money for people who they view as scroungers who're deliberately not working.

    And also...people tend to be lazy when not pushed to do anything. In an ideal society automation would allow people to live productive lives away from work, but the culture which surrounds a typical Western working life is such that people often sort of determine their lives around a working schedule. They don't necessarily enjoy their jobs, but they do take a certain comfort in the structure that it offers them, and due to the fact it gives them something to do. Although if this is a problem, I'd argue we should be incentivising people to help out in other areas - perhaps rewards for charity work, participation in the community etc, meaning people can still remain busy while also helping society as well.

    Something will need to be done though. Companies like Amazon will want to move towards an increasingly automated way of doing business because it's cheaper...but that'll only work if their customers actually have money to buy the products that're being sold. Because if people are out of work and can't get money...well, then, who's buying what the big companies are selling?
  24. Feb 4, 2018
    #24

    Cheesy Bread with dipping sauce Scout

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    It's often necessary in retail jobs etc where you actually need people there for a specified period of time to do the work, although in office-type jobs it's ridiculous the number of people you hear who'll say they basically spend half their day pissing about while getting all their work done within a few hours.
  25. Feb 4, 2018
    #25

    berbatrick Full Member Scout

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  26. Feb 4, 2018
    #26

    Mike Schatner Devil's advocnut

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    I am just thankful I am probably old enough to make it over the retirement finishing line to be relatively unaffected by atomization.
  27. Feb 4, 2018
    #27

    ArmchairCritic You got pets me too mines are dead

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    It's another interesting aspect of the wonderful autonomy that is packaged around the cars of the future. What happens to taxi driver and lorry drivers if their vehicles drive themselves? You don't need all of them to maintain those vehicles. It is pretty messed up that so many drivers feel compelled to work under Uber (even though they are still technically self-employed) when Uber are actively driving the push towards autonomous vehicles that effectively render these drivers who pay to use their app useless (effectively mining for data on quickest routes). This is 20-30 years or so away mind.
  28. Feb 4, 2018
    #28

    Classical Mechanic Full Member

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    It will happen in many sectors.

    http://www.cityam.com/274873/rise-robots-600k-construction-jobs-could-lost-automation
  29. Feb 4, 2018
    #29

    Mike Schatner Devil's advocnut

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    i think that is a lot closer than 20 years. You also have airline pilots and train drivers. No need for any of them in the future. Car ownership will also drop dramatically has we use car share services, which will trickle down to the car manufacturing industry.
  30. Feb 4, 2018
    #30

    Simbo Full Member

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    I think this problem has been around for 100+ years. It will continue to be a problem always, one we'll continue to adapt to.
  31. Feb 4, 2018
    #31

    VBI Full Member

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    It's going to be a serious worldwide issue in the coming decades and beyond. The vast majority of the world's population are currently in either unskilled, low skilled, manual, or entry level jobs. Add the extra pressure of an ever increasing population AND the drive to keep people alive longer than ever before. When I was a teenager the world's population was said to be around 6 Billion. Now it's estimated to be closer to 7 Billion, in less than 25 years. That's fecking insane. When driverless cars become an official "part of everyday life" tech, literally millions of truckers, cab drivers, UBER drivers, couriers etc will find themselves being replaced by slightly cheaper robots, because the bottom line is what will drive the decision making of the people with power and money. Just for one example amongst many.
  32. Feb 4, 2018
    #32

    Carolina Red Moderator Staff

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    I can’t wait to see the Republican plan for how to deal with this.

    They’ll never go for a universal basic income (it will be derided as handouts) and their current voter base will be clamoring for a way to deport the robots for “stealing their jobs”.
  33. Feb 4, 2018
    #33

    ArmchairCritic You got pets me too mines are dead

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    It's the legislation and infrastructure that stops it happening so soon. You effectively need all the cars to be autonomous for it to be safe. Initially you will have lanes for the vehicles before it becomes the norm. Speaking from an English perspective, this will take absolutely forever to get into place :lol:.

    Agreed on ownership, I think some manufacturers will have their own apps and some will sign deals with other apps (i.e. exclusively use our vehicles). The challenge for them will be what makes your autonomous vehicle pod so special that people want to 'rent' it out so to speak rather than buy it.
  34. Feb 4, 2018
    #34

    Classical Mechanic Full Member

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    Depends on the size of impact. If we live in democracies still anyway.
  35. Feb 4, 2018
    #35

    ArmchairCritic You got pets me too mines are dead

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    I think we are on the brink of something different here though, machine learning and AI is at such a level that you can actually render humans unnecessary. Useful things can be achieved but bad things can also be achieved.
  36. Feb 4, 2018
    #36

    Classical Mechanic Full Member

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    Thought this gave food for thought.

  37. Feb 4, 2018
    #37

    Mike Schatner Devil's advocnut

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    Well over here they are pretty close today. Uber have a fleet of driverless cars pretty much ready to go. Lots of cities have had driverless cars on the road for quite some time doing pilots.

    Thh car share thing will be a cost saving. My car sits in a parking garage all day and in my garage from 5:00pm Friday to 7:00am Tuesday. I only really need it for a 45 minutes commute three days. Much better for someone else to assume ownership and monetize my vehicle 12-24 hours a day.
  38. Feb 4, 2018
    #38

    Sparky Rhiwabon Full Member

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    I think what you're describing will happen pretty quickly now, over a decade or two. We will probably move to something similar to a "Universal Basic Income" system imo.
  39. Feb 4, 2018
    #39

    caid Full Member

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    Doctors and teachers will probably be glorified managers for the robot thats doing all the work in future too.
    It'll be a far less skilled job in future.
    You could probably get one guy to oversee a dozen robots that work 24/7 in hospitals.
    Much more of a future in nursing than surgery etc imo.

    Its not just low skilled workers that will be redundant.

    Maintenance of all these robots will surely be automated. Same with manufacture. There wont be many jobs being created by this.

    Love Sam Harris, hes terrifying
  40. Feb 4, 2018
    #40

    berbatrick Full Member Scout

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    There is some teaching work and some medical work that I don't think can be automated, it needs human responses. Also applies to some aspects of nursing.