The long term outlook for the "Big 6"

Discussion in 'Football Forum' started by King7Eric, Jan 11, 2019.

  1. Jan 11, 2019
    #1

    King7Eric Full Member

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    I'm not making this thread to compare the PL as a whole with other leagues, just to look at the long term outlook of the big PL clubs. At present we have the "big 6", but what are the long term prospects of the big 6 actually competing for the league title 6-7 years down the line. Lets break it down for each club.

    Manchester City- The defending champions and it wouldn't surprise anybody if they go on to successfully defend their title. They have a fantastic manager, a well established structure and perhaps most importantly, a bottomless pit of money. Their owners are not in it to solely make a monetary profit and barring some unforseen scandal, its hard to see them leaving the club anytime soon. They have a young core with the likes of Sane, Sterling, Jesus, Laporte, Stones and well supplemented by players like De Bruyne, Walker and Bernardo Silva who have years left in front of them. They also have the potential to match any club in the transfer market should the need arise. Its hard to forsee them not regularly competing for titles in the coming 6-7 years.

    Liverpool- The current leaders and under Klopp they have a fantastic team at present. But the shadow of not having won the league for almost 3 decades looms large over them. Its also important to point out that in the last 20 years they have had 6 managers, (making it an average tenure of over 3 years per manager) and yet have actually come close to winning the league only on 3 occasions so far -2002,2009 and 2014, implying that they give managers a lot of time to build teams without demanding instant success and have historically accepted a finish in the PL top 4 as a good season. In terms of financial clout they cannot really compete with the Manchester clubs and it is not inconceivable for European powerhouses like Real or Barca to take their best players (Coutinho and Suarez being recent examples). They seem to have a bright 2-3 years ahead but further long term there are doubts over their ability to consistently win league titles.

    Chelsea- Ever since Roman Abramovich's takeover they have been a consistent force at the top of the PL. They always have the potential to mess up a managerial appointment and one bad season is enough to get you sacked, but their club structure ensures that they are able to immediately challenge for titles under the correct management. But it is also a fact that since 2013, their net spend has gone down significantly and they no longer wield the same power in the transfer market as they did in the first decade of Roman's ownership of the club. They have a fantastic youth system but their problems in integrating those players in the first team are well documented. They are perhaps the hardest club to make a long term prediction about, but you have to think that as long as Roman is at the helm, Chelsea will always be there or thereabouts.

    Arsenal- Taking their first steps in the post-Wenger era, they are exactly where you would have expected them to be under Arsene at this stage of the season, fighting for a spot in the top 4. Of course its going to take time for the club to develop a post-Wenger identity but there are issues that go beyond the manager. For all their talk about having money in the bank, its been a long time since Arsenal made a statement signing that wasn't a big Spanish club's cast-off. Their inability to hold onto their top players even from their PL competitors is a massive issue. Due to these reasons it is hard to expect Arsenal to be able to attract the absolute top players or managers to the club and makes the prospect of them adding to their 3 PL titles a grim one.

    Tottenham- Under Pochettino they have built one of the most consistent teams in the PL of the last 3-4 years. But consistency isn't always all good though, as though you can be sure about their ability to finish in the high end of the table but you can be equally certain that they won't be lifting the trophy in May. Their new stadium is undoubtedly going to be a positive factor in the long run, but you have to question how much will it hamper their already limited ability to shop at the high end of the transfer market? Levy is a tough negotiator and hence you can expect them to hold on to their key talents, but there are massive doubts over their ability to get new ones who are of the highest level. The recent contract situation with Alderweireld and Erikson highlight its not going to be easy to hold onto top players if you don't win trophies. Their lack of trophies in comparison to the clubs they are competing against is also a tick in the negative column when it comes to attracting the best players.

    Manchester United- No matter which way you put it, who you blame, be it the owners or managers or players, the last 5.5 years have been hugely underwhelming in terms of on field results. But the fact remains that despite this Man Utd remain the only club who can challenge City in terms of financial clout. Perhaps the only major super club in England, the Manchester United brand remains untarnished so far by underwhelming results as evidenced by their record revenues and their ability to attract top players. But they cannot hide the fact that nearly all of the big name signings have fluctuated between underwhelming and outright disastrous. 3 managerial sackings in 5 years does not paint a pretty picture. Still with the huge resources at their disposal its hard to make a case for Utd continually getting things wrong, with the correct management, they have the ability to turn things around quickly and start winning stuff (it must be pointed out that even in the Post-Fergie years Utd have still continued picking trophies here and there).

    So what can we conclude from this?

    I'd say if we're looking at 6-7 years into the future its hard to argue against a Manchester domination of the PL. The resources these 2 clubs have at their disposal dwarf pretty much all of their competitors (except perhaps Chelsea). For all the talk of the PL being the most competitive league in the world, only 6 clubs have ever won it. 2 out of the supposed "big 6" have never won it and one hasn't won it for 15 years. Predicting the future is never linear, but taking historical and the present patterns and resources, are we looking at a Real or Barca like hegemony upon the PL title by the Manchester clubs?

    Of course, we never know about the future, some rich billionaire could buy Newcastle tomorrow and they start challenging, but looking at the way things are and the way they have gone what are your thoughts on the long term outlook of the "Big 6" in the PL?
  2. Jan 11, 2019
    #2

    Mrs Smoker Full Member

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    Spurs are such a Murray.
  3. Jan 11, 2019
    #3

    TheLord New Member

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    Six or seven years from now, City will have won more trophies than any other team in the period.
    We might see an odd title from Liverpool or Chelsea, but they will clearly be the most dominant team (in terms of success) in the foreseeable future. Such is their financial backing.

    I expect Arsenal and Tottenham to slip steadily for a variety of reasons.

    If I were to make a wild guess, I’d say we will be talking about “United. City. Chelsea. Liverpool” as the big four in English football in ten years time.
  4. Jan 11, 2019
    #4

    Annihilate Now! ...or later, I'm not fussy Scout

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    6-7 years ago it was a big 4...

    6-7 years from now it'll probably be something else. Maybe one of these clubs will fall by the way side, or like you said a oil money backed Newcastle or Garfoth Town might come into play... it's too hard to predict really.
  5. Jan 11, 2019
    #5

    UpWithRivers Full Member

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    Trophy allocation
    City 65 percent
    Utd/Chelsea - 20 percent
    Arsenal/Spurs/Liverpool - 10 percent
    Random club - 5 percent

    It will only change if a club is bought by billionaires or some form of legislation
  6. Jan 11, 2019
    #6

    Tommy bigot with fetish for footballers getting fingered

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    Chelsea will fade a bit as Abramovic continues to have issues with the UK.
    United will never return to the glory days.
    Liverpool will never return to the glory days.
    Arsenal will never return to the glory days.
    Spurs never had any glory days, & that'll continue to be the case (the cheese room will also fail).
    Man City will go rampant until Pep leaves. The 5 clubs above will pick up trophies here & there, but only City will prove dominant overall.
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
  7. Jan 11, 2019
    #7

    rotherham_red Full Member

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    Disagree with the notion that City will win the bulk of the trophies on offer in the mid to long-term. They've spent and spent for the last decade and their trophy haul is about as much as United's has been since Fergie left and is a little less than Chelsea's in the same period.

    Their current position is largely due to Pep being able to implement his vision with unlimited funds, rather than the club's structure itself. Once he inevitably leaves (IMO within the next 2, maximum 3, years) you'll see a natural evening out between all the teams in this top 6, IMO.
  8. Jan 11, 2019
    #8

    King7Eric Full Member

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    Of course a sugar daddy club may rise but I doubt whether the landscape will change too much. City won their first title 6.5 years ago so at that time it was already a big 5 so as to speak. Only Spurs have really risen since that time and even that you have to define what "rising" would mean. I mean it was only once in those intervening years where you felt they actually had a chance at winning the title and that was a freak season where Leicester eventually won it. Once normal service resumed Spurs were where you would expect them to be, in the upper echelons of the league but never really challenging for it. So I don't think the landscape will change too much in 6-7 years.
  9. Jan 11, 2019
    #9

    King7Eric Full Member

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    You reckon Spurs, Arsenal and Liverpool will consistently come close to winning the league?
  10. Jan 11, 2019
    #10

    rotherham_red Full Member

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    I don't think there will ever be a glory era for any club, including City. The PL is about as competitive at the top end as it has ever been, and a procession for City does nothing for the league (because hardly anyone will give a shit about it - unlike Utd, Liverpool, etc). Even now, I think the fact that Liverpool are in the driving seat for the title is indicative of how much a leveller it is when you have a quality manager at the helm and a sound financial base.

    City can only spend so much until it's a case of diminishing returns (sporting-wise) and I think we'll see that once Pep goes. Unlike Bayern, Real, and Barca, City can't horde all the best talents in the league and beyond, because the level of income from the rest of the league will make it increasingly difficult to do so, and they will never be the draw that the aforementioned three clubs (plus Utd) are to talents elsewhere.
  11. Jan 11, 2019
    #11

    rotherham_red Full Member

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    Probably not Arsenal, because of Kroenke.

    Spurs would be dependent on how they handle the financial ramifications of the stadium move and also whether they can keep Poch to the end of his contract, although it's very unlikely on both counts but IF they can come through those challenges, I can foresee at least a decent tilt at the title. Their first team is fantastic and with their quality scouting both in the UK and the Continent, I can see more unheralded gems coming to them and improving further with Poch at the helm.

    Liverpool, as much as I hate to say it, they're more than likely here to stay and be in the title race consistently. Klopp is the perfect manager for FSG and their moneyball methods, and like Poch he almost always gets his teams performing to more than the sum of their parts. With the level of fee that they are now willing to spend, they'll attract the right profile of player to the club which will ensure that they're there to stay, or at least as long as Klopp wants to stick around, which it again pains me to say is probably for the long haul.
  12. Jan 11, 2019
    #12

    King7Eric Full Member

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    I'd be surprised if Liverpool can consistently challenge for titles. Taking nothing away from Klopp and their current squad, which is very good, but I don't think they'll be able to recruit at the level needed to consistently challenge for trophies. Once you are expected to win you can't buy rough diamonds and expect to polish them, you need to buy the ready made material and I don't think they'll be able to compete with the money bags for the real top players. Also they have struggled to hold onto players when they get too big for them.

    Regarding Spurs well I'll be shocked if Poch is here after 2 years. The resources other clubs can offer him will dwarf anything Spurs can bring to the table and while the romantic notion of staying loyal and bringing the club to the top sounds alluring, it hardly ever works out that way.
  13. Jan 11, 2019
    #13

    Smores Full Member

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    Spurs are far more dependent on Kane than Poch. If he goes they stand no chance of top 4, I'm not sure the same can be said with Poch.
  14. Jan 11, 2019
    #14

    GlastonSpur Also disliked on an Aston Villa forum

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    Going back a decade and more, the top 4 spots were mostly dominated by the same 4 clubs season after season - United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool.

    And then, quite a few years ago, I posted about how the underlying trend started to point to the break up of this dominance. I was roundly criticised on here for my analysis and prediction, but events have proved those critics wrong, with the top 4 spots for the last several seasons past being occupied by a changing mix drawn from 6 clubs, with each of the previously dominant clubs dropping out of the top 4 at various times, and each doing so at least twice.

    I don't see any return of a dominant foursome in the near-to-medium term future, but instead see a continuation of this changing top 4 mix.
  15. Jan 11, 2019
    #15

    rotherham_red Full Member

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    Re Liverpool, it depends on how they go about it. If they rebuild from a position of strength (i.e. after they potentially win the league this year) I can easily see them attracting a certain class of player. Not necessarily the top level, which Klopp has proven at Dortmund and to a lesser extent Liverpool, he doesn't really need to succeed. For example, who thought that Salah would be the player he became under Klopp? This sort of profile of player is not the type who is in demand from the big clubs, but the Scousers seem to have an in-road into them and can pick them up ahead of the competition at that level (the Spurs, the Sevillas, etc of the world).

    They will never again be a trophy-laden behemoth like they were in the 70s and 80s, but like I said before, I don't think anyone will be. The game has changed too much, with there being far more money in it, for that to ever be the case. If that is what you are quantifying as success, then I'd consider recalibrating it IMO.

    Re Spurs - I grant you it's very unlikely to happen and if so, you can probably count Spurs alongside Arsenal as 5th or 6th of the Top 6, but who are more likely to beat the best teams on their day than Arsenal are.
  16. Jan 11, 2019
    #16

    rotherham_red Full Member

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    I don't think Kane will leave them in his prime. Never say never and all that, but IMO he'll look to break Greaves' scoring record before moving abroad. If that is the case, he'll be here for at least another 3-4 seasons realistically, which will keep him there until he's 29.

    He likely won't win and earn as much there as he could elsewhere, but he's Spurs through and through and he's earning enough to retire himself and his family for the foreseeable.
  17. Jan 11, 2019
    #17

    rotherham_red Full Member

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    Tbf Fergie said it way back in 2007 that there would be a fragmentation of the old guard. It wasn't a new or novel concept.

    EDIT - Agree with the rest of your post though. The fact that champions league money will no longer be guaranteed to at least 2 clubs every year will have a knock on effect on the finances of those clubs and their abilities to spend their way out of trouble. It's taken the best part of 6 years, but I think Utd have finally realised this and are smartening up their footballing operations as a result.
  18. Jan 11, 2019
    #18

    King7Eric Full Member

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    But the point is here is not about who's gonna make the top 4. It's about which teams will regularly contest the title and by that I mean be realistically in the title race come March or April. Spurs have only done so once since the PL began, Liverpool probably thrice and Arsenal haven't done so in the last decade. Neither of these 3 have won anything in the last decade either( talking about the league).

    So to think that these clubs will be regularly challenging for titles in the near future is a bit of a stretch IMO.
  19. Jan 11, 2019
    #19

    Kag Full Member

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    Spurs will drop out of the top four if and when the manager leaves and the top players follow him out of the door. That’s the next trend.

    Kane will hang around, though. He’s your Shearer. But you’ll need to pay him for it.
  20. Jan 11, 2019
    #20

    GlastonSpur Also disliked on an Aston Villa forum

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    This is a mistaken view, albeit popularly believed by those who are not keeping up sufficiently with changing circumstances. Whilst Spurs will have stadium-related debt to pay down, on the other side of the coin our annual income will soon roughly match or exceed every club in the Prem bar City and United ... and our wage bill is currently much less than that of our rivals.
  21. Jan 11, 2019
    #21

    King7Eric Full Member

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    That's neither here nor there. Real, Barca, Utd, City, Bayern, PSG can all offer him more money and better resources. While your annual income may exceed other clubs it won't exceed what these clubs can offer and these are the only clubs likely to take your manager and best players. So to talk about your income in comparison to other clubs is neither here nor there.
  22. Jan 11, 2019
    #22

    GlastonSpur Also disliked on an Aston Villa forum

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    Well, you've now widened the goal-posts to include 4 clubs outside the Prem, none of whom by definition will be competing for the Prem league title.
  23. Jan 11, 2019
    #23

    Josep Dowling Full Member

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    City - will dominate over the next few years.

    Spurs - once Poch leaves them I think they will struggle. But then we have been saying that for about 3 seasons now. They probably can’t invest for another 2-3 years so expect 3rd or 4th over the next few years if they keep their current squad.

    United - we have the financial power to compete with City if we were astute in the market. However we lack total direction from the top and I stand by the Glazers only care about Champions League qualification. Investment ceases once we are in the tournament. We are the new Arsenal.

    Chelsea - the OP mentioned their net spend has reduced but they still spend a fortune every season. Conté was moaning the squad needed more investment last season when they had spent over £200m on players, more than City! They are targeting crap players at the moment but they will get it right soon. Expect them to be City’s nearest rival.

    Arsenal - I think they will slowly fade away. The club doesn’t spend the money to compete anymore whilst losing their best players for nothing.

    Liverpool - hardest to predict really. I still believe their team is playing above the quality in that squad. Would they be able to stop their front 3 leaving if one of Barcelona or Real came in? Will Klopp stay if they continue not to win trophies.
  24. Jan 11, 2019
    #24

    Obi-Red-Kenobi New Member

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    Sorry for not reading it all, but I guess it would end up being a great outlook for Manchester, and potential issues for others. I went to the last paragraph and hey presto, I was right.

    Money doesn’t always give success, and UTD’s ‘Super Club’ status isn’t what it was, and diminishes ever so slightly with every passing year.
  25. Jan 11, 2019
    #25

    King7Eric Full Member

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    You were replying to my comment which said Poch could be lured by other clubs offering resources that can dwarf Spurs. You said that you earn more than 17 other PL clubs. But those other 17 clubs are not likely to be luring Poch or your best players anyway. I listed the clubs which can lure them. And if your manager or best players get lured away then that reduces your chances of winning stuff.
  26. Jan 11, 2019
    #26

    Inter Yer Nan Full Member

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    Is it? Not saying I disagree with the overall sentiment of your post but there have been very few title races in recent times and even this season the top 2 barely dropped points until lately.

    I think the gap between top and bottom in England has gotten the way it was in Spain. With the money spent on recruitment of managers and players there really should be more teams in the hunt and more title races on a consistent basis.
  27. Jan 11, 2019
    #27

    norm87cro New Member

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    This is always a hard topic to predict. By the late 80s Everton won a few titles, before the Premiership Leeds we're the last Division 1 champions. Large amount of money brought Blackburn short term success. Newcastle probably deserved one title during the mid 90s (I'm not complaining about that). Abramović broke the United/Arsenal dominance and now we had more Champions in the last 6 season than ever before. Hard to predict is an understatment
  28. Jan 11, 2019
    #28

    GlastonSpur Also disliked on an Aston Villa forum

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    Well, OK, if it's just about which clubs globally could offer Pochettino a lot more resources. But realistically, for a variety of reasons, only RM would be potentially in the running.

    More widely, it's all too easy to base club predictions on what happens if this manager or that player leaves. It's a game we can all play - e.g. what about United if de Gea leaves this summer (which seems fairly likely)? Or what about Chelsea if Hazard goes? And so on.
  29. Jan 11, 2019
    #29

    Finn MacCool Full Member

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    Are you guys really doing that well with merchandising, sponsorship etc? Or are you just talking about match day revenue? Genuine question, as I don't look too closely at accounts of other teams.
  30. Jan 11, 2019
    #30

    King7Eric Full Member

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    If you read the OP you'll see I haven't once mentioned Poch leaving, only mentioned Erikson's and Toby's contract situations as examples. Also even with Poch what have Spurs won? Absolutely nothing. So by what metric are you predicting Spurs will come close to winning PL titles? Which is the point of this thread btw, the long term title challenging capacity of the Big 6.
  31. Jan 11, 2019
    #31

    GlastonSpur Also disliked on an Aston Villa forum

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    I don't think you can say that about Liverpool with any degree of certainty, given that they're currently clear at the top and don't seem likely to lose any of their best players in the foreseeable future.

    And I don't think it's especially realistic to exclude United from your list of a "bit of a stretch" clubs, because the club remains in a bit of mess that won't be easily sorted out regardless of having lots of money.
  32. Jan 11, 2019
    #32

    King7Eric Full Member

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    You know mate, do an exercise. Take the top 5 European leagues and see who are the richest 2-3 clubs in each league and see which clubs not amongst the richest 2-3 have won the league in the last 10 years. Leicester is probably the only exception. No matter how much you say that money doesn't win titles, the last 15-20 years of football suggest otherwise.

    That is why I think excluding Utd is a "bit of a stretch".
  33. Jan 11, 2019
    #33

    GlastonSpur Also disliked on an Aston Villa forum

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    Well, our annual income at the last count (7 months ago) was £381m (with a profit of £163m from operations before football trading, depreciation, interest, tax and exceptional items).

    This income figure will have increased since then and it's all before we move into the new stadium, which I predict will boost our annual income - from a variety of boosted and/or additional income streams (not just gate receipts) - by something approaching £100m per year.
  34. Jan 11, 2019
    #34

    ShadesOfTomato Banned

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    Difficult to predict stuff like this. Liverpool four years ago were considered to be a club that would be perpetually in wilderness. Arsenal following the signings of Sanchez and Ozil were expected to come into contention consistently for the major honours. Nobody really expected Tottenham to transform into the team they are, with the consistency they achieve. Man Utd have been mediocre for far longer than anyone expected post Ferguson. Chelsea fluctuate wildly between title challengers and also rans. Man City are probably the only club that have followed the expected trajectory over the past few years. Things can change very quickly in football.
  35. Jan 11, 2019
    #35

    GlastonSpur Also disliked on an Aston Villa forum

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    It's almost like the last six years haven't happened ...
  36. Jan 11, 2019
    #36

    GlastonSpur Also disliked on an Aston Villa forum

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    I'm not making any such predictions - it might happen, it might not. But I would point out that a club which has finished 3rd, 2nd and 3rd in the last 3 seasons - and which may well finish 2nd or 3rd again this season - is at least as much in the foreseeable running as United.
  37. Jan 11, 2019
    #37

    Finn MacCool Full Member

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    Levy is a shrewd operator so you might be right. How much of that £100m will go towards the stadium each year? When is it due to be paid off?
  38. Jan 11, 2019
    #38

    GlastonSpur Also disliked on an Aston Villa forum

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    The current development (debt) facility expires in April 2022, but this will be converted into notes with a mixture of debt maturities, giving the club a certain amount of choice as how quickly or slowly the club want to pay off the debt.

    Of course I don't know what choices they will make about this.
  39. Jan 11, 2019
    #39

    redman5 Full Member

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    I actually believe that the more mega-rich sides there are in Europe the better chances the likes of Liverpool, Spurs, & Arsenal, have of still being highly competitive, & eventually, successful. There are obviously only so many 'superstars' to go around, & with most of the rich clubs tending to focus their attention on them, it leaves those 3 aforementioned clubs free to look at those players who fall under the radar, & who don't quite fit into the top class bracket. The problem we 2nd tier clubs face though is keeping hold of the gems who sparkle on a regular basis, thus attracting the attention of Europe's elite. If players can be convinced to remain part of a project that promises glory rather than one that guarantees it, then the future landscape might have a different look to it. Real Madrid & Barcelona are always going to be the bright light that attracts certain players, that'll never change. But I'm not wholly convinced that money alone will be the single most determining factor - in The Premier League anyway - come the medium to long term. This will Manchester United's 6th consecutive season without even a credible title challenge, let alone a title win. So that kind of backs up my last point. The money generated by the PL, & the copious amounts of sponsorship deal available because of it, gives all the top 6 clubs quite a good foothold. The days of Champions League football or bust (see Leeds United) are gone now. So whilst the likes of Liverpool, Spurs, etc may not be able to compete financially with the 2 Manchester clubs & Chelsea when it comes to attracting, & signing, the very best. With the right manager on board, there's no reason why we can't chuck our respective hats into the ring every time a new season starts. & who knows, win a major trophy or two in the process.
  40. Jan 11, 2019
    #40

    King7Eric Full Member

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    Location:
    Barcelona
    Interesting that you bring up the last 6 years. Remind me what have Spurs won in the last 6 years? The last 6 years are considered "good" years by Spurs and still they have won nothing. Utd have won some secondary trophies and still consider these years bad. Even if we assume that Utd and Spurs are on an equal footing right now, seeing as how we finished above you last season and you'll probably finish above us this. Now 2 clubs on an equal footing but one club is far richer than the other, which of these 2 clubs will any logical person say has a better chance at winning silverware in the future?