The long term outlook for the "Big 6"

Discussion in 'Football Forum' started by King7Eric, Jan 11, 2019.

  1. Jan 11, 2019
    #41

    GlastonSpur Also disliked on an Aston Villa forum

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    Several times now you've said this thread is about future league titles (not top 4 etc.). But now suddenly you want to talk about other trophies and the recent past? I see.

    By the way, I don't assume that Utd and Spurs are currently on an equal footing: you've pointed to last season in the league, but ignored the majority of the last 5 years and counting. You have a lot more money, yes, but Spurs have a settled and cohesive squad, a great manager and - I would say - more players than United who would make it into a combined best XI.

    So I don't see the "logic" of assuming that Utd have more chance than Spurs of challenging for the league title in the near future. I also think that playing in our new stadium will give our performances a significant boost.
  2. Jan 11, 2019
    #42

    King7Eric Full Member

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    You make some good points. But what happens when the mega rich clubs get their managerial appointment and player recruitment right? The current City team being the best example. Do you reckon the 2nd tier clubs can still compete with them year in year out?
  3. Jan 11, 2019
    #43

    Casanova85 Full Member

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    Crystal Palace should be bought by a Billionare. Top 7 in less than 3 years. :D:lol:
  4. Jan 11, 2019
    #44

    redman5 Full Member

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    Compete with them, yes. Be more successful, not really. The main gist of my point being that Liverpool, Spurs, & Arsenal - thanks to the PL money - will still be competitive, & occasionally, successful. City's success is not only down to money, but in being able to attract a manager like Pep. There aren't too many of his calibre out there. So it's not a given he'll stay at City for 20 odd years like Ferguson did at United. Nor is it a given they'll replace him with an equal, or better, manager.
  5. Jan 11, 2019
    #45

    rotherham_red Full Member

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    Yeah, it's possibly recency bias talking; or maybe I'm extrapolating the strides being made by the other clubs below City and anticipating them providing more of a test.

    I just feel that the likes of Everton, Watford etc are providing more of sterner test to the big teams than they used to do, and that it's only because of the huge jump in quality from the big 6 that they aren't being recognised for it. Clubs like that are playing a progressive style and have more than a few decent players at their disposal. Previously, they'd have been cloggers and the top 4 could assume a win would be forthcoming. I think our 2004-2006 team for example, especially when it was at its nadir in 2005, would not have got top 4 this season, IMO.

    Maybe I should rephrase it as the strength of the big 6 has increased markedly from what it was previously, rather than the league as a whole?
  6. Jan 11, 2019
    #46

    FootballHQ Full Member

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    I can actually see Chelsea continuing to fall back a bit.

    Big problem is Roman seeming to draw back now, can't get the stadium plans accepted and United Kingdom is now being hostile to him.

    Chelsea are starting to play europa league football on a regular basis so slipped back from the champions league ever presents they were in first ten years of Abramovich.

    That and still a reluctance to properly trust their youth products.

    If you look at it many of their regular starters are around 29-31 age range (Azpi, Pedro, Willian, David Luiz) so going to need to regenerate the squad over next 18 months.
  7. Jan 11, 2019
    #47

    King7Eric Full Member

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    Take out the other trophies and the point still stands. Anyway fair enough whatever sails your boat. If you are determined to believe that Spurs can compete with the Manchester teams year in year out then good luck with that. I'd just like to point out that a club's success 5-6 years in the future is not dependant on the current squad or manager, more at the club structure and resources at their disposal. Specifically in the case of Spurs, your club structure is fantastic but the resources are not at par with the really big clubs, hence my apprehension when it comes to your long term prospects. But whatever you wish to believe and works for you.
  8. Jan 11, 2019
    #48

    RichMet New Member

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    Liverpool under FSG initially used the money ball method with Rogers et al, but since klopp came in they have largely changed that theory. They now approach transfers in the way that they see the way forward as if the dof identifies a certain player that can make the difference then they will break the bank to sign him, as evidenced by VVD, Allison and less so by Kieta and Fabhinho.
  9. Jan 11, 2019
    #49

    SAFMUTD Full Member

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    Its not really big 6, at the moment its big two Liverpool and City.

    Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal and us have no chance to compete for the title. We are just fighting for top 4 that’s about it and that doesn’t make you big.

    We don’t talk about bundesliga’s top 6 or La Liga’s top 6. The reality is that there are always about 1-3 teams that realistically challenge for the title.
  10. Jan 12, 2019
    #50

    Changeisgood New Member

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    Pool is challenging more because of Klopp than overall squad strength. If you look at squad depth to me Pool looks a bit weaker. I actually think Man Utd at some point, maybe in 2 years will rejoin City, depending on the decisions they make.

    Chelsea/Arsenal/Spurs will all fall back. I guess in our case we have been there already a little as of late. Spurs are a house of cards in my opinion. They do not have the lure and cashflow to make real progress. I cannot see Poch staying that long either. Arsenal have well documented troubles, Chelsea....I do not even see a direction, as the club changes personnel every year it seems and now their owner is in trouble at least on UK soil. Tough times ahead I feel for London clubs competing with the other 3.
  11. Jan 12, 2019
    #51

    Karel Podolsky New Member

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    Serie A Il Sette Magnifico in '90:
    Juventus
    AC Milan
    Internazionale
    Lazio
    AS Roma
    Fiorentina
    AC Parma.

    + Napoli in early '90 and Udinese in late '90.
  12. Jan 12, 2019
    #52

    Fosu-Mens Full Member

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    None of the teams are certain to be competitive on the highest levels 7 years in the future, but there are different "dangers" that may cause the teams to faulter.

    City: Biggest dangers are if UEFA/FIFA actually tries to enforce the FFP and stop being the corrupt institutions that they are. Also if PepG leaves this might cause some issues. The squad is not young, but they got enough good young players and £££ to have a continously title challenging squad for the next 7 years.
    Liverpool: Biggests threat is if teams understand how to play against them and Klopp is not able to adapt, like what happened at the end at Dortmund. Squad is relatively young and they got a number of quality players with many years left. Their midfield is an issue, and despite using a lot of £££, they still have not improved in quality in this area.
    Manchester United: The way the club operates and currently does transfers/contracts is not professional. If this is fixed/changed they seem certain to challenge in the long run under the assumption that we do not appoint a Moysehesque manager. Got some sub par/aging players that are on really bad contracts and might hinder them to make enough changes to the team in the short term future. The positives are that they have some really good, young and talented players, and with some additions they would be title candidates for a long time.

    The other three teams are less certain to be "top 4" seven years into the future.
    Chelsea: Ownership is an issue. Dependent on a player that wants to leave.
    Tottenham: Lack of transferfunds due to investing in a new stadium and general size of the club. If their manager leaves, some of their key players might want to do the same.
    Arsenal: Got a number of current issues; Squad is not good, needs to acquire a lot of top level players to compete in the near future, but seems to lack funds/wages for this. They have appointed some smart people in reqards to scouting and transfers and this should improve their squad. Only one player in their first team now that looks like to be part of a title challenging first 11 seven years from now.
  13. Jan 12, 2019
    #53

    Flying_Heckfish Full Member

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    Was gonna mention this in reply to earlier poster's assertartion that there is only a 'big 2'.

    Sure, this season there are two (three if you generously include Spurs) in the title race, but there are genuinely six good teams in the PL this season, which harks back to the prime days of Serie A. We have a number of teams withn very high quality.
  14. Jan 12, 2019
    #54

    Kharhaz New Member

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    If anyone thinks for a second that FIFA/UEFA are going to let England dominate football for the next 10 years, then you are seriously deluding yourself. Ask yourself, why was the FFP introduced? It wasnt when the top italian teams were spending a fortune on players, or the spanish teams or even the german teams. No, it was when the english teams could not only match that bid, they over powered that bid, and all the players were going to england. Naturally FIFA/UEFA stepped in and said, no we are not having this, and of course FFP was introduced.

    Currently Man City ,Chelsea and PSG have the big money made outside the club, so if anyone thinks in 10 years time they will still be there then no, it wont happen. FFP is to test the waters, a whole new system will be in by then. Dont believe me? Look at football in america, or to be precise, the New York Cosmos. They bought the best players from around the world, they dominated the football in america. In the end the whole competition wasnt a competition, it was a joke. The interest was gone, the star players were no longer stars, everything turned into one big farce, kind of like the Harlem Globetrotters.

    I dont believe for a second this will be the case in 10 years time. Like I said FFP is to test the waters now, in the future it will be a case of commercial success across all countries who are a part of europe and indeed the football community. Financial restrictions will be firmly in place and not one club, anywhere in the world will be able to buy success.

    Man Utd will be there, the set up they have will see them through it, as will Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Valencia, AC Milan, Juventus, Real Madrid. The facilities and the standing these clubs have will always be strong.

    Chelsea wont, nor will Man City, or PSG or any other club who will in that time be taken over by big money men. Those clubs will always be remembered for the fact they bought success. The clubs who will last like I said above have always spent their own money, the money they have earnt, the clubs in this paragraph, not so much.

    The top 4 in this league will be Liverpool, United, Arsenal and Tottenham as they have ALWAYS lived within their own means.
  15. Jan 12, 2019
    #55

    roonster09 Correctly predicted France to win World Cup 2018 Scout

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    Every league fan thinks UEFA helps other leagues and against the league they support.
  16. Jan 12, 2019
    #56

    Kharhaz New Member

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    So you stopped reading at that point, ok, am I wrong?
  17. Jan 12, 2019
    #57

    roonster09 Correctly predicted France to win World Cup 2018 Scout

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    Yes. This is just tin foil hat stuff.
  18. Jan 12, 2019
    #58

    Steerpike Full Member

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    Is there a real danger of the Premier League becoming boring and predictable, and the current big six leaving the rest behind? There is a lot of money in the game now, but it most definitely isn't being spread out in an equitable way.

    Personally, I do think the current big 6 represent an unhealthy cabal dominating our game, but it is interesting to compare the last 10 years of the Premier League (2009-2018) with the last 10 years of the old First Division (1983-1992) prior to the Premier League. I've always felt that football was somehow more unpredictable back then, but some of the stats don't really support that view.

    First, the stats that do support the view that the top 6 is getting ahead of the rest:
    - Number of different teams getting into the top 6: PL=11, FD=18 (this may not look that bad, but remember the base number is 6, so the numbers to compare are 5 and 12)
    - Number of times the same top 6 recurred: PL=4, FD=0 (the PL has seen the big 6 fill the top 6 positions in 3 of the last 4 years)

    Now some more surprising stats:
    - Number of top 6 ever presents: PL=1, FD=1
    - Number of different teams winning the league: PL=4, FD=4 (the sets of 4 teams in each case are entirely different)
    - Number of retained titles: PL=0, FD=1
    - Champions dropping straight out of top 6: PL=3, FD=0
  19. Jan 12, 2019
    #59

    jeff gurr New Member

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    A constant top six is not good for English football, we need to see challengers & change. I think Wolves can upset the status quo in the next two years & maybe Leicester or Everton can challenge the big boys. Does the team who has the most money always win it ?
  20. Jan 12, 2019
    #60

    The Boogeyman New Member

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    I would put teams into groups. This isn't necessarily a ranking, but here is my list:

    City: will be a major force as long as they have the money. Not enough credit is given to how smart they've been with their signings. If they get hit by UEFA, or get sold, they'll take quite a fall.

    United: in a group by itself given how much money it generates legitimately. the post-saf era has gone about as poorly as possible with managerial hires and transfer moves, but they've still won some trophies and competed for champions league. I think Woodward and the board are the biggest issue, but even if he isn't replaced, he will eventually stumble onto a good manager and a couple stars and start competing for the premier league again. IF the problems keep up another 6-7 years, it might start to affect the brand and hurt the bottom line, though.

    The next group I think is more or less on the same level given their ownership/moneymaking potential.

    Liverpool: has a very good manager, good dof, and good owners. They need to cash in on some trophies now, because it wont get better than this for them. I think they'll be consistent contenders for top 4 without klopp as I think they will still make smart moves in the transfer market and spend big when it makes sense.

    Chelsea: will consistently compete for top 4, but wont be winning the league again soon unless a few of their signings overachieve and turn into world class stars. They can't spend like they used to, but can still spend well. They've made plenty of bad decisions recently though.

    Arsenal: similar long term potential to liverpool and Chelsea, but their owner isn't as committed and their squad needs a few major signings that they can't afford right now. I think they'll be scrapping for 4th in the next 5 years or so, with little potential for doing better.

    In a tier by itself:
    Tottenham. As long as they have Poch and Kane they'll be a near-lock for top 4, but things could quickly fall apart if Poch leaves. They hit a hot stretch finding and developing a few world class players, but can't afford to keep the squad together, and can't keep overachieving forever. As long as Poch's eventual replacement is competent, they'll still compete pretty well for top 4, though.
  21. Jan 12, 2019
    #61

    King7Eric Full Member

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    Well if you look around the top leagues in Europe, then yes the richest clubs usually always win the league. Leicester are one exception, but apart from them in the last decade or so, hardly anyone apart from the top 2-3 richest clubs in the land have won the league title in the major European leagues.
  22. Jan 12, 2019
    #62

    roonster09 Correctly predicted France to win World Cup 2018 Scout

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    I don't think this top 6 will be constant. Just 6-8 years back people were talking about big 4, which became big 6. There will be changes, teams like Wolves, Everton have money.
  23. Jan 12, 2019
    #63

    Eire Red United Full Member

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    De Gea stayed loyal through the bad times so surely he’ll stay loyal now the good times are (hopefully) coming back.
  24. Jan 12, 2019
    #64

    Schneckerl Full Member

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    Tottenham success is tied to a small number of people (Poch, Kane, maybe Eriksen). If they decide to leave I think it will be difficult for them to keep competing.
  25. Jan 12, 2019
    #65

    Schneckerl Full Member

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    Looking back at some of those teams results, Fiorentina finished mid table more often than somwhere at the top. Serie A in the 90s had just so many strong teams.
  26. Jan 12, 2019
    #66

    Karel Podolsky New Member

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    True.
    I see them in similar position with
    Newcastle in EPL.
    ---
    Add Sampdoria who were also a very good team in '90.
  27. Jan 12, 2019
    #67

    B20 HEY EVERYONE I IGNORE SOMEONE LOOK AT ME

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    Would anyone have predicted that the Italian top 7 would fall away like they have?

    Out of the current bunch spurs and arsenal seem to me the most vulnerable to the falling away as they are both relying on staying competitive on a shoestring.
  28. Jan 12, 2019
    #68

    VorZakone What would Kenny G do?

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    What's Newcastle's potential if sold to someone else than Ashley?
  29. Jan 12, 2019
    #69

    Green_Red Full Member

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    So do you think that Spurs have a realistic chance of winning the Premier League in the next 5 years?
  30. Jan 12, 2019
    #70

    africanspur Full Member

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    Not sure I get this to be honest. Arsenal have a higher net spend than Liverpool in the last 5 seasons and the wage bills are almost identical.

    I think to be honest, all of the top 6, other than the two Manchester clubs, have things that could be great positives for them in the next 5 seasons and similarly things which may seem them become less competitive.

    The Sheikhs don't seem to be letting up and Man Utd have so much money, that eventually they'll come across a winning solution again. You feel, just as work Juve, Bayern, Real Madrid etc, it would only be a matter of time.
  31. Jan 12, 2019
    #71

    TheLiverBird Full Member

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    Wasn’t that purely down to immense corruption that occurred over there?? Known as the Italian football scandal which once found out, ruined the big teams involved??
  32. Jan 12, 2019
    #72

    Bestietom Full Member

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    It was unique what Fergie done with us. There will never be another Manager that will win 13 Premierships with a club, because they will not stay long enough or be moved on.
  33. Jan 12, 2019
    #73

    King7Eric Full Member

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    This is exactly what I had been trying to explain to Glaston yesterday but he seems to live in his own world. Of course no one can predict the future and anything could happen that could cause massive upheaval but any logical person will agree that the odds of the Manchester clubs competing for the title are better than those of the others.
  34. Jan 12, 2019
    #74

    breakout67 Full Member

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    There is no Big 6. Oil clubs in City and Chelsea are the only consistent league winners since SAF retired. United and Arsenal are consistent cup winners.

    Spurs haven't been close to league title in decades. Liverpool are only able to compete at the top because they benefited from the transfers that were triggered by another oil club (PSG).

    State money has gradually been gaining power over the PL and SAF's retirement got rid of their biggest challenge. This dirty money has basically killed any chances of Arsenal and Spurs being consistent league winners.
  35. Jan 12, 2019
    #75

    africanspur Full Member

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    I would agree that the odds are higher for those two clubs but I also see Glaston's point of view that Spurs are pretty consistently discredited and seem to be most peoples' bets to drop down from their current position and have been for 5-10 seasons now. In the medium term, the stadium will bring us level with Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea in terms of revenue, with the 4 of us well behind the two Manchester clubs still.

    I certainly think Man Utd would have a bit more to be worried about if SAF had retired 10-15 years ago instead.

    Realistically, one club dominating in the league is over imo. For everyone. I'm under no illusions that Spurs won't be consistent league winners any time soon as things stand but that doesn't mean I don't think we can win a title here and there, especially under the right circumstances.
  36. Jan 12, 2019
    #76

    OleTheGreat New Member

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    Manchester United will appoint a DOA, keep hold of Ole Gunnar Solkajaer and we'll win a couple of titles in the next 4-5 years. You can count on that.
  37. Jan 13, 2019
    #77

    Kharhaz New Member

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    There will never be a manager with the influence Fergie had ever again. And for me thats a good thing. Yes it was unique what Fergie did, so unique in fact that referees had his number, and I mean HIS ACTUAL PHONE NUMBER, he had time named after him, and indeed had an ex chairman of United on the FA board. So yeah there will never be that kind of manager again, where all the stacked cards fell in one persons favour. I hope to god we never see a manager like this again.
  38. Jan 13, 2019
    #78

    Kag Full Member

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    If you look very closely, there is a new fisherman on the edge of the pier with a big bastard fishing rod, trying to get a bite.
  39. Jan 13, 2019
    #79

    Kharhaz New Member

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    Its not the bite that is the attraction, its the catch.
  40. Jan 13, 2019
    #80

    SwansonsTache incontinent sexual deviant & German sausage lover

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    Don't really have to look closely.