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These stats are strange - no matter how you look at them

Discussion in 'Football Forum' started by lysglimt, Apr 27, 2018.

  1. Apr 27, 2018
    #1

    lysglimt Full Member

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    Everton and Crystal Palace have scored 40 and 36 goals respectively. Man United, Liverpool and Chelsea have scored a total of 204 goals or an average of 68.

    Despite this - Palace alone, have got as many penalties (9) as United, Liverpool and Chelsea combined. While Everton have got 8 penalties.

    So a bottom club and a mid-table club who can't score goals - get roughly 1 penalty every 4 games. While 3 of the best clubs in the country - who probably spend a lot more time in the opponents penalty area - get one penalty every 12 games.

    I know statistics rarely tell the true story - but I always find it a bit strange when the topclubs are far behind other clubs in penalties awarded
  2. Apr 27, 2018
    #2

    Decomposing In Paris Full Member

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    I fear this may be one influence of money on the game.

    It's the old "Dog bites man is not a story, but man bites dog..." A team near the bottom gets a penalty which potentially causes an upset, will either lead to the story of a big club slipping up, or it will provoke a dramatic reaction. Either way, the game will be more entertaining. Alternatively, the big club gets a penalty as the first goal in a game, the game may be over, and a complete non-story.
  3. Apr 27, 2018
    #3

    Tommy bigot with fetish for footballers getting fingered

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    Potentially.

    My initial thought was that the referees don't want to be perceived to have bias towards certain clubs. Lots of refs in the country probably support the 3 bigger clubs given in the example, but a lot fewer would have any bias towards Everton/Palace, so they feel more comfortable giving them the closer calls.
  4. Apr 27, 2018
    #4

    JamesO New Member

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    Paul Tomkins done an analysis on this a few weeks back. It's even more shocking than you think as the reality of it all is that English players win pens at a FAR higher rate then foreigners do.
  5. Apr 27, 2018
    #5

    Decomposing In Paris Full Member

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    One other aspect to be considered, IIRC, there were very few penalties given in matches between the top 7 clubs this year... that's 14 of the 38 games.
  6. Apr 27, 2018
    #6

    el3mel Full Member

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    We never got any penalties even when it's clear we should get one. I gave up on such point long time ago.
  7. Apr 27, 2018
    #7

    Njord Full Member

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    I feel a reason for this is that referees know that if they wrongly award a top club a penalty, or wrongly miss a call for a team playing against a top team it is blown up a lot more in the media than the opposite cases. A good example of this is when we didn't get a penalty against West Brom, and it was hardly mentioned, compared to when Bournemouth didn't get a penalty against us, and it was the main talking point after the match.
  8. Apr 27, 2018
    #8

    CA1 Banned

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    I've said for years this line that gets trotted out by the bottom/middle clubs about a "Top 6 bias" is absolutely horse shit. It's the other way round if anything.

    Herrera against West Brom the other week, 100% penalty. Was never really mentioned again, and we played awful don't get me wrong but it would have changed the game.

    If West Brom had that turned down there would be questions in the House of Commons.
  9. Apr 27, 2018
    #9

    VeevaVee despite the protests, wears Ugg boots

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    Does seem like they may be favouring giving them in small games because they know they aren't under scrutiny.

    Guessing it's because it used to seem like more of a continental thing where the players were flashier and throwing themselves around more. Not so much anymore but probably a hangover.
  10. Apr 27, 2018
    #10

    MrBest Full Member

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    Top clubs have more money to spend on training facilities so players are stronger and better equipped to not tumble over
  11. Apr 27, 2018
    #11

    VeevaVee despite the protests, wears Ugg boots

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    Gotta be sarcasm? :lol:
  12. Apr 27, 2018
    #12

    FC Ronaldo Posts stuff that's been said before in tweet form

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    Got a link? Send in inbox if you can’t post another reply. Ta
  13. Apr 27, 2018
    #13

    Chipper Full Member

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    Zaha dives a lot. Sometimes he gets booked for diving when being fouled too. :lol:

    Palace have had lots of penalties down the years. Remember when Andy Johnson kept getting them?
  14. Apr 27, 2018
    #14

    MrBest Full Member

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    Dead serious :angel:
  15. Apr 27, 2018
    #15

    cyberman Full Member

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    They could be messing about with recycled possession when top sides have got their shots off.
    Being more hesitant could give the opposition more of a chance to nick the ball or foul the attacker? ?
  16. Apr 27, 2018
    #16

    JamesO New Member

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    Out and about at the moment but I'm pretty sure it was a free article on his website. Tomkinstimes.com. Think the article was around beginning of April if you look for it.

    If you have no joy I'll stick a proper link to it when I get home.
  17. Apr 27, 2018
    #17

    shamans Hoser

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    Just want to see Scholes hit a volley.
    I'm gonna steer away from the other opinions on here and say maybe it is the fact lower teams lack quality in the box and thus play for a penalty (much like how many lower clubs play for a foul).

    Top teams don't look for penalties as often?
  18. Apr 27, 2018
    #18

    Sparky Rhiwabon Full Member

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    Zaha says "hi"
  19. Apr 27, 2018
    #19

    Smores Full Member

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    My brain had literally purged any memory of Andy Johnson. Managed to somehow get an England cap too i think
  20. Apr 27, 2018
    #20

    Swift Football Banned

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    You are just trying to build a story when there is none. The thing is the number of penalties awarded is so few that you cannot draw any significant statistical conclusion from that. For e.g., the average number of penalties awarded is between 4 to 5. there are number of clubs who have been awarded just below average, like 3 penalties. Over the course of season, there could easily be 1 or 2 one off situations/decisions that might comfortably lead these same below average club to above average (in terms of penalties awarded). I remember discussing this topic in Talking Reds in 2013/14 season where Liverpool, Chelsea and City were awarded highest number of penalties closely followed by Spurs and United.

    If we want to see if there is a trend in penalties, then we need to analyze good number of years. You can make a weak case for few expected trends but its not consistent enough. For e.g., a team who spends lot of time in opponents box being awarded more penalties - Man City in last few years. A tricky player earning more penalties like Zaha for Crystal Palace. A team that is good in counterattack being awarded more - like Leicester in last few years. A team that plays with high line conceding more - like Arsenal conceded some 10 penalties in 13/14 I think.

    Referres are trained not to be biased towards bigger club, and at the same time, not do the opposite and punish them. They seem to make some wrong calls, some for and some against big clubs, so over the season it will be normalized.

    Only trend that is significant in penalties is Home teams are awarded more penalties (around 60%) than away teams (around 40%).
  21. Apr 27, 2018
    #21

    Smithy_123 New Member

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    Palace and Everton clearly have the more silky, creative players.
  22. Apr 27, 2018
    #22

    JamesO New Member

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  23. Apr 27, 2018
    #23

    Gio ★★★★★★★★

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    This.

    Counter-attacking is a big driver here - an under-manned defence desperately recovering back to its own goal is more likely to give away a penalty than an organised low block.
  24. Apr 27, 2018
    #24

    Enigma_87 You know who

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    Can't remember United having large number of penos in the course of a season since the days of Ruud.
  25. Apr 27, 2018
    #25

    Blatzo Full Member

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    It's like an all you can eat buffet of statistical fallacy and selective bias up in here.

    You can't cherry pick the clubs that prove your point and use it as evidence that an effect exists. You conveniently left out THE "top" team - how do the stats look right across the league?

    Equally the thing on English players winning more penalties.. aren't there more of them? Granted Tomkins may have factored for it - I've not seen his analysis
  26. Apr 27, 2018
    #26

    Jippy Sleeps with tramps, bangs jacuzzis, dirty shoes Staff

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  27. Apr 27, 2018
    #27

    Rossa Full Member

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    No wonder City win so few penalties then!
  28. Apr 27, 2018
    #28

    Rhyme Animal Modmins said "freeze" and I got numb

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    One explanation, not sure if I'll explain it well but anyway...

    Could be that top clubs spend more time in the oppo half, so lesser teams style of play is much more likely to be counter attacking, and that is when defenders are more likely to be drawn into a tackle that concedes a penalty.

    Also, lesser teams spend longer defending in the game, with more men behind the ball so perhaps are more drilled on not lunging in etc and holding their numbers.

    Whereas top teams are often defending a lot less in most games and so individual error due to lack of focus when defending is more likely for them.
  29. Apr 27, 2018
    #29

    lysglimt Full Member

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    I am not proving any point - I just find it strange that 2 mediocre clubs get as many penalties as 3 of the best clubs in the P.L. Especially if you add to the fact that these 3 clubs spend a lot more time attacking than Everton and Palace do. I never said it was wrong - although I generally feel topclubs get a lot fewer penalties than they should.
  30. Apr 27, 2018
    #30

    Blatzo Full Member

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    But you picked the two clubs.

    And you picked the 3 clubs that suit your argument from the top clubs.

    Grab a deck of cards and pull a random one out. Repeat this 52 times. Record which card you choose and then, after you've seen the results, marvel at the card that appeared 3 or 4 times when some of the others didn't even appear even once.
  31. Apr 27, 2018
    #31

    RedTillI'mDead A Key Tool

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    Still have to look at details. Maybe its a factor of style of play. English players maybe less technically skillful so to get to top of game speed and nimbleness becomes a factor and therefore more likely to be involved in late challenges in the penalty box
  32. Apr 27, 2018
    #32

    Sunny Jim Full Member

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    How many have we had so far in the league?
  33. Apr 27, 2018
    #33

    el3mel Full Member

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    Two. One scored and one missed.
  34. Apr 28, 2018
    #34

    Sunny Jim Full Member

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    Martial missed one didn't he? And Sanchez converted one, right?
  35. Apr 28, 2018
    #35

    el3mel Full Member

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    Forgot that Sanchez one. That makes it 3.

    Martial's one was in CL.
  36. Apr 28, 2018
    #36

    Chipper Full Member

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    League:
    Leicester (H) Lukaku - miss
    Everton (H) Martial - scored
    Huddersfield (H) Sanchez - miss (scored on the rebound)

    CL
    CSKA Moscow (A) Martial - scored
    Benfica (H) Martial - miss
    Benfica (H) Blind - scored
  37. Apr 28, 2018
    #37

    redshaw Full Member

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    Could be counter attacks from lower teams and last ditched tackles from the top teams but then how many pens are between matches with other lower teams?

    I do feel like in the last five years there was also a move by refs to avoid complaints of favouring the big teams. It may have gone too far the other way now. When big Sam or Mark Hughes see a dodgy decision playing against United it's big club bias, when one goes against them while playing another lower team it's just bad refereeing or part of the game.
  38. Apr 28, 2018
    #38

    tenpoless Full Member

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    Would help if the referees can stop being inconsistent wankers.
  39. Apr 28, 2018
    #39

    JustFootballFan Thinks Balotelli & Pogba look the same

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    I get the sense that referees swallow their whistles for one of three reasons

    1) to generate more drama
    2) out of sympathy for the plucky underdog fighting the evil powers of the rich clubs
    3) not to be acccused of favouring the big teams

    This imho is alsp the reason the big teams always get endless additional minutes they don´t deserve (like Liverpool today) to score a winner/equalizer.