Top Four Race 2017/18

Discussion in 'Football Forum' started by Damien, Dec 13, 2017.

  1. Feb 13, 2018

    Rafateria Full Member

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    I didn't say that at all - what I did say : For the record I think from here in we'll finish behind you, not because we're a weaker team (that's debatable depending on which side of the fence you sit) but you are 5 points ahead (we'll need to win at OT - not beyond the realms of possibility) and there is very little depth to our squad which will end up costing us points. Post #1041

    And as for the losses to relegation fodder, I think you too need to take a closer look at this and not buy into the Urban Myth created on this site ;)

    [​IMG]
  2. Feb 13, 2018

    Nickosaur Full Member

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    Agree with you.

    Top 4 is safe IMO, we're so strong at home and think that gives us the edge over Chelsea and Liverpool in the upcoming games, but it's our away form that worries me.
  3. Feb 13, 2018

    RedSky likes to kick 10-year-olds Scout

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    It's not really an urban myth is it? Last Season:

    8th Southampton (H) - 1pt
    8th Southampton (A) - 1pt
    9th Bournemouth (H) - 1pt
    9th Bournemouth (A) - 0pt
    11th West Ham (H) - 1pt
    12th Leicester (A) - 0pt
    14th Crystal Palace (H) - 0pt
    15th Swansea City (H) - 0pt
    16th Burnley FC (A) - 0pt
    18th Hull City (A) - 0pt
    20th Sunderland (A) - 1pt

    Granted you've done better this season, but a myth implies something that doesn't exist. Whereas you got your stigma for poor results outside of Top 6 from last seasons form.
  4. Feb 13, 2018

    Rafateria Full Member

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    Since when is last season relevant to this ? That list literally means nothing in 2018. Lots of changes in personnel since then too. It's an Urban Myth because however much it was true in the past it's being perpetuated on this forum for 2017/18 despite the reality being something rather different.
  5. Feb 13, 2018

    RedSky likes to kick 10-year-olds Scout

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    Urban Myth: A humorous or horrific story or piece of information circulated as though true, especially one purporting to involve someone vaguely related or known to the teller.

    It is true. Your form last season was horrific against the clubs outside of the Top 6. I would agree with you if your personal was very different but it isn't. Same Manager, same coaching staff (as far as I know). Only 3 players new in the Summer and none of your first team were sold in the Summer. So even when you say "lots of changes in personnel" what you mean is... "we brought in Salah".

    Feel free to be defensive, but labels stick in football. If you manage to retain this form throughout the remainder of the season then fair enough, but until then tough titties.
  6. Feb 13, 2018

    charlenefan Far less insightful than the other Charley

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    Careful he'll bring out the bingo analogies on you if you're not careful, it's all about chance apparently :angel:
  7. Feb 13, 2018

    Finn MacCool Full Member

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    That table doesn't include last weekends results
  8. Feb 14, 2018

    Rafateria Full Member

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    Thumbs Up !
  9. Feb 14, 2018

    Rafateria Full Member

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    Feel free to apply whatever moniker you like then (e.g. pedantism) maybe. Though considering, last season especially, United fans found it humorous and Liverpool fans horrific I see no need to change the designation.

    No I don't mean we just brought in Salah, how about adding Robertson and VvD (since both have contributed to those stats) too and dropping Clyne due to a season long injury and adding Gomez/TAA? Sorry 4 changes wouldn't suit your rhetoric though so let's just ignore them.

    And as Finn pointed out United have now lost more points to teams outside the Top 6 than Liverpool, happy days as far as this debate is concerned.
  10. Feb 14, 2018

    Rafateria Full Member

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    Or alternatively there's the option of just sticking one's head up one's arse .. as some people do. :angel:
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2018
  11. Feb 14, 2018

    charlenefan Far less insightful than the other Charley

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    Feeling a lot more positive about us not falling out of the Top 4 having done this match predictor thing and believe me I was being very pessimistic about our chances in games vs our rivals

    # Team M. W. D. L. Goals Dif. Pt.
    1 [​IMG] Manchester City 38 32 4 2 89:22 67 100
    2 [​IMG] Liverpool FC 38 24 11 3 72:33 39 83
    3 [​IMG] Tottenham Hotspur 38 25 8 5 63:25 38 83
    4 [​IMG] Manchester United 38 22 9 7 60:25 35 75
    5 [​IMG] Chelsea FC 37 22 8 7 58:27 31 74
    6 [​IMG] Arsenal FC 36 19 8 9 59:39 20 65

    (ignore the GD as I was only predicting wins/draws/losses)

    The point really being we'd have to do even worse than I have us doing to fall out of the top 4 and for the record I expect us to do a lot better than my predictions
  12. Feb 14, 2018

    Don _ Conte New Member

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    So we would be 1 point behind you and our final game would be Newcastle for us to jump you. (As we have only played 37)
  13. Feb 14, 2018

    charlenefan Far less insightful than the other Charley

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    Feck :lol:

    Oh well we better do better than my predictions then :nervous:
  14. Feb 14, 2018

    Don _ Conte New Member

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    Tbh I think there's not much in it all, I think only arsenal in 6th and City in 1st are set so we will have to see how the weeks unfold. Certainly don't think any team you could guarantee will finish in the top 4 as these conversations seem to be changing on a week by week basis.
  15. Feb 14, 2018

    Wengerscoat Full Member

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    We will be free 3 points for United when we do play them. Shame we won't be in CL next year (again)
  16. Feb 14, 2018

    africanspur Full Member

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    Pretty sure Man Utd will be finishing in the top 4 tbh. The first half of the season gave you a very good buffer and you've still got enough about the squad to put most teams in the league to the sword.
  17. Feb 14, 2018

    Kapardin Full Member

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    I think 75-80 points is definitely a top 4 spot. Reckon 78 would just about get you 3rd or 4th, because Liverpool need 24/33, Chelsea need 25/33, Spurs need 26/33 to get to 78. The margin is by no means comfortable for them.

    Which means, we need 22 points out of a possible 33 to get to 78. Take the worst case scenario. Assuming we get only 3 points from the Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal home games (1 win/2 losses or 3 draws, whatever), and draw away at the Etihad as well (we never lose there bar LvG's 1st season, oddly enough), we will have dropped 8 points. That leaves us with breathing space to hit 78 even then.

    Top 4 should be very doable. 2nd though, is another matter.
  18. Feb 14, 2018

    breakout67 Full Member

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    :lol: It's funny that oppo fans are more optimistic about United than their own fans.

    This happens after a loss every time; but we've had two losses in quick succession so the meltdown is even bigger.

    United have some really good players and a really good manager; if United finish outside the top 4 then the relationship between the two has obviously broken down. If both the manager and players perform to their normal level then top 4 should be straight forward.
  19. Feb 14, 2018

    RedSky likes to kick 10-year-olds Scout

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    You are seriously going to include VvD despite having played a grand total of 3 games for you and you have the audacity to call me up on this. Give me a break. Robertson is a fair shout, but that's two players in, I do not qualify that as "lots of changes to personal". If you're going to point out errors in peoples posts then don't make such sweeping statements and expect to be given a pass.
  20. Feb 14, 2018

    Rafateria Full Member

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    So again you exclude Clyne (Gomez/TAA) ? That's three. And any player that has contributed needs to be included otherwise the results could be different or do you want to deny that too ? You just want to pick and choose because it doesn't suit your rhetoric as I've already stated.
  21. Feb 14, 2018

    Rafateria Full Member

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    For me it's not about the players or the manager, regardless of how good they are or aren't, United are not living up to their paper potential. However I still have them in the Top 4 (and with a strong shot at 2nd) simply because of the remaining schedule. Not much to choose between United/Spurs/Liverpool with Chelsea and Arsenal to miss out.
  22. Feb 14, 2018

    RedSky likes to kick 10-year-olds Scout

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    Gomez has been part of your club, he's not a new find, he didn't play any games last year but TAA did. I didn't realise Clyne hasn't even played a single minute this season, is he injured or just out of favour?
  23. Feb 14, 2018

    Rafateria Full Member

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    Persistent back injury all season. He's supposedly close to full time training though and is still in our CL list so the club must be confident he can return this season.
  24. Feb 14, 2018

    giorno Full Member

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    Remaining City games might have a big impact, too. If City go far in all comps, i don't think they'll care about setting records in the league, they'll gift a lot of points away. Know when they face spurs and chelsea?
  25. Feb 14, 2018

    GlastonSpur Also disliked on an Aston Villa forum

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    They play Spurs April 14th ... with any luck they'll have wrapped up the title by then and won't care if we get all 3 points
  26. Feb 14, 2018

    giorno Full Member

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    CL QF coming up as well. Yeah, could be an easy 3 points for you
  27. Feb 14, 2018

    AlwaysRed66 Full Member

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    I think all five of us are weighing up the options of how many points we will gain in those games, whilst assuming that all other matches will be sort of free points. Normally in the last month or so you usually have many sides with nothing to play for, but this season it has gone mad, & at the moment everyone from Burnley in 7th could go down, & it might be the only sides with nothing to play for will be Man City, & possibly WBA & Arsenal.
  28. Feb 15, 2018 at 13:17

    RedSky likes to kick 10-year-olds Scout

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    Looking at the below:
    • FA Cup progress could determine whether games are rescheduled on the 17th March. We'll get a better idea after this weekend (i'll update this image once we know the fixtures).
    • Liverpool play 5 games, 4 of which are at home. They have a big advantage in the United fixture given they're pretty much safely through to next stage of CL.
    • Tottenham have a fairly simple run of games and play 6 games. If Rochdale do the unthinkable and knock them out, Newcastle game will go ahead, otherwise it'll be rearranged.
    • Chelsea have a disgusting fixture list, if they're unlucky and get a tricky FA Cup fixture (assuming the beat Hull) then they'll have an extremely difficult run.
    • United have a tricky set of fixtures as well, much will depend on how we do against Sevilla next week. We're lucky we have the Chelsea fixture after they play Barcelona. We're going to have to play 3 games in 9 days too. That Liverpool game is very bad timing for us.
    • As a side note, Palace have some horrible fixtures coming up. Tottenham, United at home and Chelsea away. Ouch. They could well be in the relegation zone by International break.
    [​IMG]
  29. Feb 15, 2018 at 13:20

    ThatsGreat New Member

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    That works in your favour, imo. If you've got teams not needing points then you have to bring the game to them when they're content just to frustrate you. It'll help Utd's cause to face teams still needing points.
  30. Feb 15, 2018 at 13:37

    The Irish Connection New Member

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    Oh I dunno. I've lost a lot of confidence in us over recent weeks. The Pogba situation could get worse and I have no confidence in the big games. Just gonna cross my fingers or something. Spurs and pool on form look like they could overtake us and we're arguably better than a Chelsea in turmoil.
  31. Feb 16, 2018 at 11:05

    The Outsider Full Member

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    Utd have a tough run from those fixtures above if you look closely.

    Chelsea have always had a good record there and think despite the recent dip in form they will be united for different reasons to get a result at OT.
    You also have Liverpool at home, always competitive and both Palace and West Ham away never easy fixtures.

    Liverpool and Spurs look to have an easier sequence just now.
  32. Feb 16, 2018 at 12:41

    RedSky likes to kick 10-year-olds Scout

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    Well West Ham Away will be rescheduled if we beat Huddersfield tomorrow.

    I've altered the image to add in the last 5 results of the same fixture (in the same competition).

    I also never realised what a good record you have against Barcelona. Impressive.
  33. Feb 16, 2018 at 14:29

    The Outsider Full Member

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    We met them 4 years on the bounce in the CL knockout stages......
  34. Feb 16, 2018 at 15:20

    hellohello Full Member

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    It is quite insane, same feeling I had with Arsenal and Bayern. To be fair despite Barca being favourites I think it's gonna be a close game and wouldn't be surprised if Chelsea go through IF you play to your potential.
  35. Feb 16, 2018 at 15:32

    diplomat Full Member

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    I think we need to beat Huddersfield and Chelsea convincingly if we are to secure a strong 2nd place finish at the end of the season. Otherwise, anything can happen and we can finish as low as 5th, since I believe only Arsenal are out of the top 4 battle.
  36. Feb 16, 2018 at 16:13

    Primativ New Member

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    Looking at it, even though Spurs are currently 5th and one point behind Chelsea, as long as Spurs win their next few, which they are heavy favourites to do, then many of their rivals are playing each other and will drop points. For example United V Chelsea, as long as Spurs beat Palace, they will make a lot of progress on at least one of them. Same with United and Liverpool.

    Spurs could easily find themselves at least 3rd and hunting down 2nd over the next few weeks. They have to keep winning though. All about consistency at this stage of the season.
  37. Feb 16, 2018 at 18:26

    The Outsider Full Member

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    Good point on Arsenal and Bayern. Can't see us beating Barca though as you intimate stranger things have happened.
  38. Feb 17, 2018 at 05:19

    Rafateria Full Member

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    They are favourites for 2nd in my book. Just take a look at the remaining games.
  39. Feb 17, 2018 at 06:36

    Maradona10 Duncan Castles

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    IF we can beat Chelsea at home and Get a draw/beat liverpool we should be fine. We have to beat one of them and draw the other.
  40. Feb 17, 2018 at 08:28

    Treble Full Member

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    Depends on the results against the lesser teams. 4 pts from Chelsea and Liverpool would be great if the team avoided upsets vs Palace, Wham, Brighton and Bournemouth.