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Top Four Race 2018/19

Discussion in 'Football Forum' started by Damien, Sep 23, 2018.

  1. Mar 10, 2019

    bosnian_red Worst scout to ever exist

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    I'd say we can drop points in 3 games and still get top 4. 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss gets us to 75 points. Should be enough in the end. Unless Arsenal/Chelsea go on a shockingly good run that nothing from their previous form would suggest.
  2. Mar 10, 2019

    Cheesy Bread with dipping sauce Scout

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    I can already picture Sean Dyche running down the touchline as Burnley secure their survival on the final day of the season with a plucky 1-0 win over an Arsenal side who need only a point to secure top four.
  3. Mar 10, 2019

    FootballHQ Full Member

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    75 points is boderline imo particularly as Man. United are 6 worse off in GD to Arsenal so that's effectively an extra point at the late stage of the season.

    Guess you can run up big scores v Huddersfield and Cardiff in your last two though.
  4. Mar 10, 2019

    ArjenIsM3 Full Member

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    :lol:
  5. Mar 10, 2019

    TMDaines Full Member

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    Arsenal have 5 away games and have only picked up 50% of available points away from home with negative GD so far.

    I think it will be super tight. Arsenal need to find their away form. Spurs need to hit the ground running at their new ground. We need to get the job done at home too. What complicates the matter is all the top six sides are still in Europe. If Arsenal can comeback against Rennes, then it is going to mean all having multiple focuses towards the end of the season.
  6. Mar 10, 2019

    2 man midfield Incestuous Modern Woman (Dumper!)

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    Arsenal will be safe, barring a collapse. Could see Tottenham falling away, and our game against Chelsea late next month being crucial.
  7. Mar 10, 2019

    bosnian_red Worst scout to ever exist

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    If we break down each teams fixtures in terms of likeliness to win...:
    United:
    Expected win:
    Watford (H), West Ham (H), Huddersfield (A), Cardiff (A)
    Tricky games: Wolves (A), Everton (A), Chelsea (H)
    Very tough games: City (H)

    Win the games we should, win 2 of the tricky 4 and draw 1 puts us on 77 points. Win 1, draw 2 puts us on 75.

    Arsenal:
    Expected win: Newcastle (H), Brighton (H), Burnley (A)
    Tricky games: Wolves (A), Everton (A), Watford (A), Palace (H), Leicester (A)

    3 wins you'd expect, then I can see them going something like 1w-2d-2l or 2-1-2 from the tricky 5. Puts them on 74 points (or 76 if they win 2 of those tricky 5).


    Spurs:
    Expected wins: Brighton (H), Huddersfield (H), Everton (H)
    Tricky games: Palace (H), West Ham (H), Bournemouth (A)
    Very Tough games: Liverpool (A), City (A)

    Home/away split for Everton is much easier at home. West ham tend to do well away to Spurs so that's a tricky game for them when it's easier for the others. 2 probable losses away to top 6 sides, 3 tricky games. I'd say they win 4 or 5, draw 2 or 1, lose 2. Points total leaves them on 75 or 77 points.

    Chelsea:
    Expected wins: Brighton (H), Cardiff (A), West Ham (H), Burnley (H), Watford (H)
    Tricky games: Everton (A), Leicester (A)
    Very Tough games: Liverpool (A), United (A)

    5 wins you would normally expect though feck knows what to expect with Chelsea. Can easily throw Watford and West Ham into the tricky category for them. 2 probable losses away to top 6 sides. 2 tricky away games that I'd be surprised if they won either (we'll give them 2 draws).
    Going 5-2-2 gives them 74 points. 76 points if they win 1 of the 2 tricky games.

    So basically...
    1. City
    2. Liverpool
    3. Spurs 75/77
    4. United 75/77
    5. Arsenal 74/76
    6. Chelsea 74/76
    That's how I see it. Sure Arsenal have no more games against the top 6, but they still have 5 very tough games where you'd be shocked if they even hit 50% win rate given they are away for most. Chelsea have all their tough games away, can easily lose all 4. United have 2 top 6 teams, but both at Old Trafford and generally 4 games where we should expect to win. It's anyone's to get at this point, and we all have pretty much a fresh start after the international break and of course even the "expected wins" can easily throw a curve ball. I'm far from convinced either of Arsenal/Chelsea will turn around their stop-start form (especially away from home), while we are easily the most confident at the moment.
  8. Mar 10, 2019

    abdo99 Full Member

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    United and Arsenal will be the two teams who finish top 4.
  9. Mar 10, 2019

    bosnian_red Worst scout to ever exist

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    Hard to predict goal difference at this stage tbh, but it could well come down to it given how tight everything looks. 75 points is borderline but I'd say it's what the par for us with those fixtures would be. Arsenal and Chelsea I would both say the standard/expected results from them with their fixtures would be 74, Spurs probably 77. Whatever way you look at it, it'll be borderline for anyone.

    Most annoying thing from a United fan perspective is that after 17 games this season, United had only 26 points and a goal differential of 0. Spurs had 39 points with a +15 GD, Chelsea on 37 points with a +21 GD, Arsenal on 34 points with a +14 GD.

    In 12 games we've clawed back 10 points and +8 GD on Spurs, 12 points and +20 GD on Chelsea (they have 1 game in hand), and then 6 points and +8 GD over Arsenal. All if's and but's but we would definitely be clear in 3rd if Ole was in from the start IMO.
  10. Mar 11, 2019

    Sean_RedDevil Twitter bot

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    :confused:

    1) They are strong at the Emirates but not so good away from home and 5 of the 8 games are away from home.

    2) They are going hopefully through in the Europa League against Rennes so that would be a factor too.

    3) To play 3 of the last 4 games against clubs in a relegation battle isn't easy + Wolverhampton/Everton/Watford/Leicester are targeting the 7th place for the Europa League.
  11. Mar 11, 2019

    Berbaclass Full Member

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    Why does everyone think Arsenal have it easy. They will bottle it when they’re not at the Emirates.

    Burnley, Watford, Wolves, Everton all away are four really tough games for them. Leicester will give them a game too. Newcastle have been much better recently too so could do something too.
  12. Mar 11, 2019

    Red Dreams Full Member

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    We will finish above both Arsenal and Chelsea. Perhaps even Spurs.
    They are all inconsistent.
    We simply did not take our chances.
    We had more than them.

    Ole will get us there lads.
  13. Mar 11, 2019

    iKnowNothing Full Member

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    I'm not sure if home and away form matters so much. For instance, we are supposed to be in good away form and played pretty decent yesterday but dropped all 3 points.

    To the 4 teams vying for the 3rd and 4th place, all the rest of the games are a cup final. Form doesn't matter - a team on the other end of the table fighting for survival might cause an upset or two.
  14. Mar 11, 2019

    Red Dreams Full Member

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    btw our final match is Cardiff at Old Trafford.
  15. Mar 11, 2019

    Kush Full Member

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    Arsenal are absolutely rubbish away from home, I see them dropping points in at least 3 of the 5 remaining away fixtures. Our biggest concern should be beating Chelsea at home, that's a straight up six-pointer in the race for Top 4.
  16. Mar 11, 2019

    abdo99 Full Member

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    we've been on this incredible run for over two months yet will potentially drop back to whrre we started in 6th if Chelsea wins next week.
    seriously feck mourinho.
  17. Mar 11, 2019

    syrian_scholes Full Member

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    Win that and Wolves away and I believe we will be in top 4.
  18. Mar 11, 2019

    Vinay Nair New Member

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    I've heard this argument elsewhere and it doesn't make much sense. We may fall to 6th in a week, but we are not going to be 11 and 8 points behind Chelsea and Arsenal respectively. We are in the mix and given Chelsea and Spurs' form, we may not even need Arsenal to do what they do best (bottle it).

    But yes, feck Jose. He stopped us from challenging for the title.
  19. Mar 11, 2019

    Vinay Nair New Member

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    Despite the loss yesterday, I feel calm about our prospects for top four. We played fine overall, it was just one of those games. Our strikers are not likely to have that kind of a stinker again.
  20. Mar 11, 2019

    ThatsGreat New Member

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    Yeah, Arsenal have got the top four in the bag. Great achievement when you realise we've got no defense or wingers. Now all that's left to see is who joins us. My money is on Utd
  21. Mar 11, 2019

    Vinay Nair New Member

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    I wouldn't be so sure. You have a goal difference of -1 away from home, only winning 5 games all season.
  22. Mar 11, 2019

    Rajma Full Member

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    First week after the international break we’ll be in the top 4, Chelsea are going to lose points away to Everton while Benitez is going to do one over Arsenal, also Spurs are sure bet to lose at Anfield.
  23. Mar 11, 2019

    NJM78 Full Member

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    I'm not as confident as a few on here. I can see all teams dropping points but us more based on our remaining fixtures. We score the least and concede the most also but we must take pride in what Ole has done as we have been playing catch up after Jose. Just think it may be too big an ask and I could see it finishing City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs, United - but very few points separating 3rd and 6th.

    It might be what we need though to once again show the board that we need some quality players signed in the summer and that we shouldn't get carried away just because Ole is at the wheel, we are still some way behind the best teams in the league and Europe.
  24. Mar 11, 2019

    Santi_Mesut_Alexis_87 Banned

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    My same feeling, giving we improve our away form.
  25. Mar 11, 2019

    hellohello Full Member

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    It's an interesting race, all teams could say similar things ('given we improve x'). For spurs we need to hope the new stadium give us a boost and that the international break can give us a much needed break to find our form.
  26. Mar 11, 2019

    Adisa likes to take afvanadva wothowi doubt

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    We have no margin for error. I'm strangely calm since I was expecting a loss yesterday.
    Didn't have a reason just kept feeling we would lose.
  27. Mar 11, 2019

    NJM78 Full Member

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    What if City win the CL and Arsenal or Chelsea win the Europa, will 5th place get CL? anyone know...
  28. Mar 11, 2019

    lsd Full Member

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    Unless we catch Spurs I can't see us making top four .

    It was always going to be an impossible task after where Jose left us .

    Ole has done a fantastic job and gave us hope but yesterday was a killer for me .
  29. Mar 11, 2019

    lsd Full Member

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    No and people ask these questions every year
  30. Mar 11, 2019

    NJM78 Full Member

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    Thanks and apologies forum police.
  31. Mar 11, 2019

    Adisa likes to take afvanadva wothowi doubt

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    Arsenal will drop points.
  32. Mar 11, 2019

    RobinLFC Cries when Liverpool doesn't get praised

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    If City wins the CL and:

    Arsenal/Chelsea win the EL and finish top 4: top 4 gets CL
    Arsenal/Chelsea win the EL and don't finish top 4: top 4 + Arsenal/Chelsea gets CL

    I don't think there's any chance 4th misses out on CL anymore since City will not finish outside the top 4. In a scenario where CL + EL winners finish outside the top 4, I think 4th misses out but not sure. That won't happen anyway so...

    It's anyone's guess at this moment, but Spurs desperately need to improve their form or they're in serious danger of missing out, especially since they have a tough run-in (at least I know they have to go to Liverpool and City). If Chelsea win their game in hand, it gets very close and it'll probably go down to the last game of the season.

    I hope Arsenal and Spurs make it, but my guess at the moment is Spurs and United.
  33. Mar 11, 2019

    Cassidy No longer at risk of being mistaken for a Scouser

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    They did but rode their luck as their defending through out the game was atrocious. Cant believe we lost we were poor yesterday
  34. Mar 11, 2019

    Paul_Scholes18 Full Member

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    Arsenal third, us fourth. Chelsea and spurs to win the champions league and europa league and we will miss out top 4. Apart from Spurs getting a win in the champions league the other results could happen no doubt.
  35. Mar 11, 2019

    RobinLFC Cries when Liverpool doesn't get praised

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    Poster I meant to quote (sorry @NJM78, quoted the wrong post) only mentioned a City CL win though.

    I didn't even think about the possibility of Spurs winning the fecking Champions League :lol: Your luck is truly rotten if that scenario happens.
  36. Mar 11, 2019

    Judas Open to offers

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    I think we’ll lose at least two more games this season. Our fixture pile up is intense and the level of who we have left to play, I’d say probably makes as favourites to miss out.

    Amazing what one loss can do to my confidence, and we didn’t even play bad, I’d just have rather lost to someone else.

    Needing to beat City is my big fear now, not only because it’s a very difficult game, it could hand the title to Liverpool.
  37. Mar 11, 2019

    Red Star One Full Member

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    It will be incredibly difficult considering our fixtures and amount of games to be played, although there is slight hope also due to the fact all London teams still play in Europe. At this point I wouldn’t bet on us finishing it top four, I’m afraid we will miss out on a very small margin, a point or two. I really hope to be proven wrong, and can’t help but wonder how different it would’ve been had Jose been sacked slightly earlier...
  38. Mar 11, 2019

    Trizy Banned

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    It'll come down to the last game of the season. I think we'll find it tough with all the games we have left.

    Unfortunately it's a must to finish top 4, another seasons outside of the CL while needing to sign top players could be terrible.
  39. Mar 11, 2019

    Hazard Warning Banned

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    At this point in the season the best possible teams for any of the challengers to be facing are between 8th-14th as they have nothing to play for. Teams like Burnley, Cardiff etc are actually far harder fixtures than they should be as they will be scrapping for points to stay up.

    The race is far too tight to call - there will be twists and turns right up until at least GW 36 imo, with it probably going to the death into GW38.
  40. Mar 11, 2019

    sincher "I will cry if Rooney leaves"

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    We might need to beat City.