Top Four Race 2018/19

Discussion in 'Football Forum' started by Damien, Sep 23, 2018.

  1. Mar 12, 2019

    Havak Pokemon master

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    Yeah, I do agree. I think United will do extremely well to go 6W 1D 1L and get 19/24. But it's possible and would definitely be enough.

    Every team bar Arsenal has some huge clashes to come, but I'm actually not too worried about Arsenal still despite their good league form of late. Sure, they have given themselves the best possible chance in the run-in, but despite their easier fixtures I don't think they'll be the team to get six wins out of eight. Maybe none of the teams in question do it, getting five wins will be difficult enough, but this is why I'm suggesting the six wins thing and I'm almost certain about it. 6/8 and the team that does that probably finishes 3rd as there's no way more than one team is going to find that kind of run.

    I do think Man Utd's most likely finish is 5W 3D 0L / 5W 2D 1L for 75/76 Points which should do it. Beating Chelsea is the biggest game and assuming we've beaten Watford/Wolves, a draw or loss to Man City would probably be allowable by that point, assuming the final two games ended in victory. A draw with Wolves could be allowable, but that would mean cutting it extremely close on the last day.

    Arsenal need to flat-track bully it, but they're not good away from home so if they can't fix that I expect them to drop points.

    Spurs need a massive turnaround as right now I can only see them getting brushed aside by Liverpool and City and at least drawing another (but that could be enough if they win the other five).

    Chelsea I think will eventually struggle the most and must win at Old Trafford and probably avoid defeat away to Liverpool for any chance. They will finish 6th IMO.
  2. Mar 13, 2019

    Oxeki New Member

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    I do think we can win at least six of our remaining fixtures. majority of the points we dropped away were against top six teams. our points per game against non top six teams overall (home and away) is 2.4 ppg. Therefore, theoretically, we could end up having 79 points if we continue our home and away run against our remaining 8 opponents.
  3. Mar 13, 2019

    charlenefan Far less insightful than the other Charley

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    Arsenals away record this season

    L v Chelsea
    W v Cardiff
    W v Newcastle
    W v Fulham
    D v Palace
    W v Bournemouth
    D v Man Utd
    L v Southampton
    D v Brighton
    L v Liverpool
    L v West Ham
    L v Man City
    W v Huddersfield
    D v Tottenham

    5 wins
    5 defeats
    4 draws

    1 away league win in 2019 against the team bottom of the table
    2 away wins against the other two sides likely to be relegated
    All 5 away wins were against the sides positioned in the bottom half of the table with 4 remaining away games against sides positioned between 7th and 11th
  4. Mar 13, 2019

    saintetienne New Member

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    Bookies odds to finish top 4

    Spuds 8/13
    Arsenal 8/11
    Chelsea evens
    Man Utd 11/8

    its too close to call
  5. Mar 13, 2019

    BergkamptoOvermars New Member

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    Arsenal will do well again.

    I reckon Arsenal third and United or Spurs for fourth.
  6. Mar 13, 2019

    Ooh2B New Member

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    3 of those 5 away defeats were to City, Liverpool and Chelsea of course, so not too bad in grand scheme of things

    Southampton and west ham have had some results against top six clubs, so while our away form is decidedly dodgy, not having any top six games away is nice not to deal with.

    But the way this seasons going, anything can still happen.
  7. Mar 14, 2019

    TMDaines Full Member

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    So a country can only have a maximum of five sides in the Champions League, and with six English sides going strong in the CL and EL, fourth won't be enough if the CL and EL winners end up finishing fifth and sixth.
  8. Mar 14, 2019

    purgethefallen New Member

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    But winning the EL gets you into the CL, so you can't afford to take that competition easy either.
  9. Mar 15, 2019

    charlenefan Far less insightful than the other Charley

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    I know people keep mentioning this but there's zero chance of Spurs going all the way in the UCL and at the end of the day they're the only ones we need to worry about in this hypothetical scenario
  10. Mar 15, 2019

    RobinLFC Cries when Liverpool doesn't get praised

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    Europe could lead to some funny yet stressing situations this season, but it's quite unlikely that 4th misses out on CL.
  11. Mar 15, 2019

    SqueakyWeasel Full Member

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    to worry about, yes! But what if we win it and end up 5th knocking someone else out?
  12. Mar 15, 2019

    Paul_Scholes18 Full Member

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    As long as that stress comes from us being in the CL final I am good :). If Spurs not as good.
  13. Mar 15, 2019

    Paul_Scholes18 Full Member

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    The lowest odds for something crazy is that Chelsea win the europa. We win the champions league and also end up 5th and 6th in the league. Chelsea are europa league favorites and have higher odds than Spurs and Arsenal for top 4. So the upset would be for us to win the champions league to mess it all up.
  14. Mar 15, 2019

    RobinLFC Cries when Liverpool doesn't get praised

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    Yeah from a United perspective you only have to worry about Spurs not making top 4 and winning the CL if you make top 4 yourselves so that's very unlikely indeed.

    Just imagine though:

    3. Chelsea
    4. Spurs
    5. United
    6. Arsenal

    Arsenal could potentially knock CL out of the CL if they win their EL final and if United wins the CL. Vice versa, a scenario exists where Spurs could knock Arsenal out of the CL with the last game of the season.
  15. Mar 15, 2019

    charlenefan Far less insightful than the other Charley

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    Then it'll be glorious, especially if that someone is Arsenal
  16. Mar 16, 2019

    Leftback99 Full Member

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    Anyone still confident for the away game at Wolves? It's not looking good for us the way we are playing.

    Also with the way the European draws are panning out (Chelsea favourites for the Europa) it could be that we're the only top 6 side not in the CL next season.
  17. Mar 16, 2019

    SqueakyWeasel Full Member

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    International break … all momentum is reset!

    So hopefully the reverse is true too :D
  18. Mar 16, 2019

    Damien Self-Aware RedCafe Database (and Admin) Staff

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    The couple of weeks rest has come at a good time. Hopefully most of our injured players/players who have just returned will be fully recovered by then and won't be as rusty.

    Wolves have caused problems to all of the top six (Liverpool in the cup more than the league) this season. We could be in top form and I still wouldn't be confident for the away game against them and think the same applies for most of the top six too.
  19. Mar 16, 2019

    charlenefan Far less insightful than the other Charley

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    Top 4 is a concern now, might be a good time for the international break because lot of our players look horribly out of form all of a sudden (guess the injuries are to blame for that)

    Now Wolves have an FA Cup semi they'll pack the league in and concentrate on that just watch
  20. Mar 16, 2019

    Casanova85 New Member

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    Yes. Never thought I'd say this, but this NT break at this very moment could help us.
  21. Mar 16, 2019

    Raw Full Member

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    Let's have this international break to rest up, get the players heads in the game and show everyone we want it by beating Watford convincingly.

    Hate that we still have Wolves away though. Such a frustrating team to play against.
  22. Mar 17, 2019

    RonaldoVII Full Member

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    That may be a valid point. Our league game against them is on the Tuesday with the FA Cup semi that weekend. Would be amplified if they draw City too.
  23. Mar 17, 2019

    FootballHQ Full Member

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    Good news for Arsenal then, that's one away win in the bank for them.;)
  24. Mar 17, 2019

    Vinay Nair New Member

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    Chelsea beaten at Everton - they don't look like they are going to win many games. Feeling better about the weekend after that.

    United should forget about the cup exit and go on another run after the international break. With Spurs' fixture list, 3rd is still a very strong possibility.
  25. Mar 17, 2019

    RonaldoVII Full Member

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    We're all guilty of getting ahead of ourselves but we need to look at it one set of fixtures at a time. After the international break, we have the easiest game of that weekend at home to Watford so if we win that we can hopefully gain ground on the rest and then look to the week after.
  26. Mar 17, 2019

    KennyBurner New Member

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    Haha thank God for Everton. Feeling much better after this Chelsea result. We need to finish top 4 or win champions league for this season to be a success. I know we’ve come a long way from mourinho and should be grateful but Ole has given us hope. It would be very disappointing if we don’t qualify for champions league after all that has happened.
  27. Mar 17, 2019

    abdo99 Full Member

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    we need to be aiming for the third. arsenal and spurs will drop points . we play Watford on 30th and then Wolvss again a few days after. spurs will go to Liverpool so we could pull level and move ahead in the space of 4/5 days.
  28. Mar 17, 2019

    shahzadi Full Member

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    This is even sweeter that Title Race :wenger::D
  29. Mar 17, 2019

    charlenefan Far less insightful than the other Charley

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    Chelsea will concentrate on the Europa now, by far their best route back into the UCL
  30. Mar 17, 2019

    haram Full Member

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    Who really cares if we finish 3rd or 4th...
  31. Mar 17, 2019

    philipos New Member

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    The result last night should help us as our next two games are against teams whose next match is an FA Cup semi and don’t have anything to play for in the league.
  32. Mar 17, 2019

    abdo99 Full Member

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    there's two spots up for grabs and I'd rather finish in the higher one. that's it.
  33. Mar 17, 2019

    Dante Bang Average but can post Blindfolded for 15 secs

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    How about now?
  34. Mar 17, 2019

    charlenefan Far less insightful than the other Charley

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    One good thing about last nights results is that we should want revenge when we go to Wolves in a couple of weeks
  35. Mar 17, 2019

    Mr H Full Member

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    4 points between 3rd and 6th.

    We are 5th, 3 points from spurs in 3rd.

    We still play chelsea at home. Spurs go to City and Liverpool.

    Arsenal is gonna get Top 4. easy schedule.

    We can get into top 4 next gameweek with a big win. Spurs play liverpool away.
  36. Mar 17, 2019

    Casanova85 New Member

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    Woah. Thanks Everton. Nothing more to say.
  37. Mar 17, 2019

    Mr H Full Member

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    Yeah, and we will have a game less in the crazy month of April.
  38. Mar 17, 2019

    FootballHQ Full Member

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    Everton is suddenly a tough place to go again, not conceded versus Liverpool or Chelsea. Can see Arsenal dropping points there, maybe Man. United aswell as think the game is just after Barca second leg.
  39. Mar 17, 2019

    KennyBurner New Member

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    You would rather play in the Europa? It’s sad but we should always aim to play in the champions league even if we aren’t favored to win it.
  40. Mar 17, 2019

    haram Full Member

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    4th still gets CL...