Transfer budget 2018-2019 speculation

Discussion in 'Manchester United Forum' started by Bastian, May 1, 2018.

  1. May 1, 2018
    #1

    Bastian Full Member

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    Been thinking about this for a while. Given the amounts of issues that need addressing, some of which are quite pressing, we are likely signing at the very least 3 quality players, a midfielder and two defenders. It's heavily documented that we need a left back, a right back and a replacement for Carrick. On top of that, a luxury window would include a right winger to address our lack of balance and a commanding centre back to organise and settle our constantly changing back 4. So, at minimum 3 players, maximum 5 players. Given the change in the market, this is well north of 150m I assume.

    I thought Jose had been given 150m to spend each season over the last two years, but turns out it's less (130m, see below).*

    The players that are very likely to leave are Darmian and Blind. They could conceivably fetch between 25-35m. Others that have been mentioned as candidates to leave are Herrera (which now looks very unlikely) and Mata. If either of them leaves, we will need to replace them too (unless younger players are promoted).

    If we are buying a leader-type centre back, like Alderweireld, then it probably means one of Lindelof/Jones/Smalling will be sold (as Rojo has just signed a new deal).

    Looking at our transfer spend over the last 4 seasons:

    2014-2015
    Incoming transfers 175m
    Sales 44m
    Net spend 131m

    2015-2016
    Incoming transfers 140m
    Sales 91m
    Net spend 49m

    2016-2017
    Incoming transfers 166m
    Sales 42m
    Net spend 124m

    2017-2018 (Post dramatic market inflation)
    Incoming transfers 147m
    Sales 10m
    Net spend 137m

    Jose's net spending is 261m, significantly less than the 150m per season figure I had in my mind for whatever reason. A decent full back is 50m, a top midfielder is significantly more expensive. If Jose continues to get 130m to spend (net) per season, to continue the rebuild, it is clear that we have to be economical even if we are just signing 3 players for the first XI.

    If this is somewhere near accurate, it's not surprising that he may opt to sell a highly valued player to boost his budget. But that may dramatically change the dimension of what needs to be done in the window.

    *Leaving agent fees out of this as I can't find reliable figures there, and whether or not they are included in the official transfer fees or separate.

    Thoughts?
  2. May 1, 2018
    #2

    arthurka Full Member

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    No need to sign anything Fellaini is staying ..
  3. May 1, 2018
    #3

    Igor Drefljak Definitely Russian

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    I don't think a number should be put on it really.
    If the player is available, and it improves where we need, then it should be pursued.
    If Fellaini leaves, I'd go as far as saying we need 6 players;
    LB, RB, CB, CM, CM, RW

    I'd also let go of: Blind, Rojo, Mata, Darmian.
    I'd like to see Shaw, Tuanzebe and TFM go on loan in the Prem, and if Andreas P is willing to stay, I'd also like to see him have a year in the Prem
  4. May 1, 2018
    #4

    MUFC OK Full Member

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    As I said somewhere else, if we are selling Martial this summer it is to fund investment in other areas of the squad. I wouldn't be surprised to see a deal with alex sandro + cash.
  5. May 1, 2018
    #5

    Sanche7 Full Member

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    I thought we are postponing the OT Expansion to fund the rebuild or something.
    And i thought our spending was way more than the amounts given in OP.
    Even if we have only 150 million, the sales of Blind+Darmian+Shaw and potentially Rojo should get us 15+15+20+20=70 million,so I don't understand why we should sell our best youngster to fund our transfers
  6. May 1, 2018
    #6

    P-Nut0712 fan of well-known French footballer Fabinho

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    If he doesn't sign the contract his value will diminish massively next season.
  7. May 1, 2018
    #7

    Bastian Full Member

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    If you look at the spending figures, the 130m per season includes money recouped from selling players.

    Looking quickly at City for the 2017-2018 season, they spent 285m, recouped 86m, net spend of 199m. And the previous 2016-2017 season the spent 192m, recouped 31m, net spend of 161m.

    With that in mind, if our outlay is similar to what it has been, it's a bit rich (no pun intended) to ask for a league title.
  8. May 1, 2018
    #8

    Water Melon before it dries out, eh

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    However, is it poor enough to be beaten by Sevilla? Do we have Pool's, Spurs', Gunner's and Chav's net spend? Does it mean that as long as City are overspending we should forget about being first? Consequently, are we expected to beat all teams in CL that spend less than us?
  9. May 1, 2018
    #9

    Donnie Brasco Banned

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    If we werent owned by the worst parasite owners in world football we could of easily spend 200+ in this coming transfer window.
    I bet our budget is the same like last year, maybe if Jose begs them all summer they will allow a fourth signing depending on sales.
  10. May 1, 2018
    #10

    MadDogg Full Member

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    They may or may not have caused issues early on, but at this point they have proven to be better than most owners who have taken over football clubs over the last 10-20 years. Hell, they've been pretty damn good compared to some, and it's been partly due to them that our revenue has increased as much and as fast as what it has.
  11. May 1, 2018
    #11

    RedRevongge Full Member

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    I mean... seriously? We have spent so much money since Fergie left.

    The Glazers aren't perfect but it's not like they have hindered us from spending big in the last few seasons. The main issue has been overspending on the wrong players
  12. May 1, 2018
    #12

    Bastian Full Member

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    I don't think the Sevilla game needs further analysis. We set up poorly. It wasn't lack of big money signings. Should have knocked them out.

    I'm not maintaining that we aren't in a better (much better in fact) position than Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs (not really sure what will happen at Chelsea). We are on course to reach a very decent points tally in the league, that City's incredible league campaign aside, would mean we'd be challenging up until the end.

    What all this suggests to me is that if our intentions are to seriously challenge City in the league and be serious contenders in Europe, our budget needs to be bigger. Otherwise people need to lower their expectations.
  13. May 1, 2018
    #13

    Cee90 Redcafe Fantasy Football Champion 2012/13

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    We have wasted a lot of money over the past 5 years or so unfortunately.

    I’m not sure if this will impact the Glazers when it comes to allocating a transfer budget for the summer, but I personally think we’ll need about £250 million to get back to the top.

    Probably unrealistic for one window anyway, but not if you combine the summer and the January transfer windows.

    Regardless, even with ‘only’ £150 million to spend, we should be able to identify players who are not necessarily in the limelight, who wouldn’t cost an arm and a leg, but are suited to our style of football and have potential to be world class.

    I am hoping Javier Ribalta has been hard at work behind the scenes and we’ll start to see the fruits of his labour this summer.
  14. May 1, 2018
    #14

    Bastian Full Member

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    @Cee90
    The worry there is that as soon as it's United the prices go up. But yes, in theory we should be able to get two full backs and a midfielder for 150m (which is a higher budget than in the two previous seasons). I'm not sure they'd all be top class, but good.
    Personally, I'd prefer to see fewer players come in if they aren't the sure thing or very promising young players, than bring in players that might or might work out (like loads of players we've bought in the recent past).
  15. May 1, 2018
    #15

    Water Melon before it dries out, eh

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    Okay. Lets see if we do well against teams that have less net spend than us first. CL campaign next season will show. So will the prem race. Pool did it in CL, so did Roma. Wonder what is Bayern's and Real's net spend in the last two seasons.
    Last edited: May 1, 2018
  16. May 1, 2018
    #16

    Flytan Full Member

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    Why does the "Net Spend Cup" matter lol? Players cost different amounts on more than just what they add in footballing. Contracts, marketing, age, usage, players retiring, agents etc. all affect the cost of a player. Why would you even begin to think it matters?
  17. May 1, 2018
    #17

    Ish Lights on for Luke

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    I'd say net spend is a worthwhile gauge, if it is used with context. But, like most stats or figures, without any context it becomes borderline useless and/or manipulated to suit certain arguments.
  18. May 2, 2018
    #18

    Water Melon before it dries out, eh

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    Because it does matter lol... Why would you even think it does not. The better the player the more he costs, simples. If you still do not get it. Here's an easier way. Some clubs depend on selling their players to generate funds to buy new ones more than the others. To make it even more easy for you: check players bought and sold by Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, ManCity and ManUtd in the last two seasons. You can actually do this for any other top 3-4 clubs in each of top 5 leagues across Europe. See now why does Net Spend Cup matter, lol?
  19. May 2, 2018
    #19

    Raoul Admin Staff

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    Whoever we buy, we need to score a hell of a lot more goals than we did this year in order to compete for the league and CL next. They can either come from Alexis, Rashford, and/or Martial, or we are going to have to buy a player like Griezman to add another dimension to our attack.
  20. May 2, 2018
    #20

    T A New Member

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    Jose's actually quite good at selling. He was the first manager ever in Abra era to take Chelsea's net spend to a positive profit at 14-15 season. Last year he sold Schneiderlin and Depay - two bench warmers for entire first half of the season and took back 40m, which was really impressive.

    I think Shaw, Blind, Darmian could bring us 50m. Martial's price will be around 40-55m. I also expect Smalling, Fellaini, Herrera and Mata to leave this summer but this is unlikely now. If we can sort out all these names, there aint only their fees but also the amount of wage that can be cut off.

    Investing it on real deals. Quality not quantity, i will be happy even when it means 8 outs and 4 ins if 4 new names are worthy players. We can always bring TFM, Pereira, Tuanzebe or Gomes, Chong to fulfill backup vacancies and guarantee squad depth. What we are missing and really need is the strength of our starting XI
  21. May 2, 2018
    #21

    Flytan Full Member

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    You literally just ignored every point I brought up.

    Good job. Net Spend is one of an infinite amount of ways you can look at seeing how a club is performing and investing.
  22. May 2, 2018
    #22

    esmufc07 Elvis has theft the building Scout

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    I think Mourinho will be allowed to spend what he needs to strengthen the team. I don't think there's an exact figure as such. That's not to say we can go and splurge £300/£400m in a window, but nor do I think Mourinho is tied down to a figure of say £150m.
  23. May 2, 2018
    #23

    crossy1686 Full Member

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    Sell: Darmian, Blind, Martial - £80m
    Buy: Alex Sandro, Griezmann/Fekir, Vidal - £200m
    Net: £120m

    Think this would balance the team a bit more than it currently is. Young would be used as a LB/LWB/LW when needed. The sale of Martial isn't necessary but unless him or Rashford learn to play on the right over the summer, Martial is going to be jettisoned.
  24. May 2, 2018
    #24

    vangagal Full Member

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    As much as Jose feels need to. I do think last summer Woodward keep him within a budget to pursued all of his target. But this is Jose's 3rd. If anything this is the time to fully bank on him. Fully support him, get all his target, sell all unwanted players. I'd say it again if Jose want all his target, it'll more than just 3 players, no way Jose think 3 players is enough for him. Left back, right back, 2 midfielders, right winger, minimum that is. I cant stand another season of Valencia and the calamity of LB's situation. Having said that, Woodward will give 300mil mininum i think plus all of fees from sell out players.
  25. May 2, 2018
    #25

    Trizy Full Member

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    I honestly think we only need a LB, RB and RW. You'd be surprised how good we look attackingly with the right players in those positions.

    The CM position is fine if Fellaini stays for backup. Pogba, Herrera and Matic are good enough to play a full season there injuries aside.

    Having said that if Jose can get those 3 main targets regardless of fee AND Woody lets him buy another CM, then why not.

    I think we'll be vicious in the market this window. Hopefully we get business done before the WC.
  26. May 2, 2018
    #26

    Bastian Full Member

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    I think that has so much to do with the balance of the team. We're not lacking in goal scorers as such, I think, but if we fix the full back positions, settle the defense and have a capable threat on the right we'll definitely score more goals. Not sure Griezman would fix that, and I can't see us going for a 442.

    I hope you're right. Seems people are positive about a signal of intent from the board. I hope the board's ambitions match those of the supporters and recognise the gap that needs bridging.
  27. May 2, 2018
    #27

    Jacko21 Full Member

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    Think we'll end up spending £200m, whilst recouping £50m.

    So £150m net.
  28. May 2, 2018
    #28

    Inter Yer Nan Full Member

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    I think we will raise about 100m through the sales of Darmian, Blind, Shaw, Martial and I can see the spending being around 200m. Sandro, possibly Alderweireld, a new midfielder and possibly Griezmann if he's not Barca bound.

    I don't think he'll be capped. It will be whatever he feels we need and the board will back him. He's improved us in each season and the team is just a couple of pieces away from being complete and I think the board will understand this.
  29. May 2, 2018
    #29

    DanClancy Full Member

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    Clearly not better owners than City's & Chelsea's. Our revenues have increased in a similar way to Bayern's Real's & Barca's.
  30. May 2, 2018
    #30

    MadDogg Full Member

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    Abromovich used to bankroll Chelsea, but these days they really only seem to spend what they as a club make (quite a bit less than us). In that time he's also continually directly meddled with the club, over-ruling managers and inevitably falling out with them and firing them, buying players that he's wanted and pressured the managers to play them, etc. You'd seriously want that over the Glaziers who stay completely out of it and just let Gill/Woodward and the managers run things?

    Also, would you really want to be owned by either of those groups, both of whom have ties to severe human rights violations and such, who both only really used the clubs as a playtoy to build their own 'brand'? I certainly wouldn't, and would find it somewhat disgusting.
  31. May 2, 2018
    #31

    sunama Baghdad Bob

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    Griezmann is not joining us buddy. He snubbed us in the Summer, by politely making an excuse. Sometimes in life you need to take the hint and move on.
    And besides, if he did join, I honestly can't see the style of our play changing.
    For Jose to be less defensively minded, he needs to trust our defence and right now, he does not.
    I think that if we spend on our midfield, our attackers will be given greater freedom to focus on attack.
    Our attackers are good enough and do not need replacing. Our midfield and wingbacks however, do need strengthening.
  32. May 2, 2018
    #32

    Raoul Admin Staff

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    Whether or not he joins us is questionable, but if he doesn't it won't be because it didn't work out last summer. It will be because we have other options to pursue.

    As for our attackers - they are clearly not good enough because they don't have enough goals in them. Solely relying on Lukaku isn't going to cut it in terms of winning the league and CL.
  33. May 2, 2018
    #33

    marktan Full Member

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    Agreed on the positions. As there's no clear standout full backs like Walker and Mendy available, I think we can get our full backs in for around £30-40m each, so a total of around £70m for both. I think a top winger would cost us at least around £60-70m, essentially our marque signing this season ala Pogba and Lukaku in previous. Mahrez is the only RW that sticks out in my mind as already being top class, and Leceister rejected a £65m bid for him and wanted £90m or so, so it'll cost a lot unless we go for the lower tier of potential but not proven of players like Lemar.

    So those 3 should take up most of our budget. My worry is though Mourinho won't prioritise those positions, if he doesn't then I can really see us struggling to mount a serious title challenge. If he does get those in I though wouldn't be averse to another midfielder for around £30-40m :)
  34. May 2, 2018
    #34

    Swift Football Banned

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    Whatever the budget is, I hope we do not blow it on couple of 29 year olds.

    The spine of team is more or less set and is not going to change with the signings in the positions we are looking for. Surely, we will invest and make some improvements ( especially on the right side with both RB and RW) but I dont think it will make any major changes to our style or results). Overall, this coming summer window might be the least important for us in last 4-5 years.
  35. May 3, 2018
    #35

    DanClancy Full Member

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    Roman's meddling hasn't affecting their ability to win trophies, Chelsea last title to him arriving was in 1955; They've won 5 since he arrived and a CL, no Chelsea fan can complain about anything.

    I'm disgusted that the owners of my football club have allowed a billion to leave the club since they arrived.
  36. May 3, 2018
    #36

    crossy1686 Full Member

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    We really need to spend big this summer as a reaction to what our rivals have done. We need to send a big message of intent to let everyone know we're going absolutely no where.
  37. May 3, 2018
    #37

    Smores Full Member

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    I don't get the relevance. If Jose doesnt spend a penny this summer will you accept a lower level of performance?
  38. May 3, 2018
    #38

    ROFLUTION Full Member

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    Sanchez cant have been cheap - to me he's part of next season's spending
  39. May 3, 2018
    #39

    Fergie 7ime New Member

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    Actually, we did our dealings before the Neymar transfer. I remember Jose patting himself on the back about it not long after. So maybe we haven’t felt the full wrath of the market yet. :nervous:
  40. May 3, 2018
    #40

    OldSchoolManc Full Member

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    Sales -
    Darmian = 10m
    Blind = 15m
    Shaw = 20m
    A central defender = 20m
    Totals 65m to add to the budget.

    I think we may be spending 200m plus with those sales.
    IF Martial goes, he will also be replaced by a player we need in another position and that’s gotta be at least 50 million there. I think he will stay though.