Transfer budget 2018-2019 speculation

Discussion in 'Manchester United Forum' started by Bastian, May 1, 2018.

  1. May 15, 2018
    #81

    Trizy Full Member

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    To be fair to Pogba, he has 10 PL assists this season and he missed 25% of the season. Doubt anyone outside of KDB has those stats across all leagues for CMs.
  2. May 15, 2018
    #82

    Laurentiu amt New Member

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    I know what you're saying, I'm referring more to the Carrick type. A CM that can square the game off, place a vertical pass etc. Atm we don't have that unless Pogs goes very deep into our CM.(when he does that Matic becomes rather useless as sitting tbh.)
  3. May 15, 2018
    #83

    Bastian Full Member

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    I think it's imperative that we make a couple of essential buys early before the first major transfers happen that will shake the market.
  4. May 15, 2018
    #84

    OldSchoolManc New Member

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    This.
    There is no doubt that Real Madrid will be doing a lot of business. Then City will be spending someone else’s money like there’s no tomorrow, as will PSG.
    The money in the market this summer is going to break all records, so if we can get it all done before the WC, we will be much better off.
  5. May 15, 2018
    #85

    ColvaleGoa Full Member

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    Anyone know what sort of Warchest Real are going to have this summer? Not interested in whom they buy as long as they keep their ugly mitts off Big Dave!
  6. May 15, 2018
    #86

    Bastian Full Member

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    I’d ask @carvajal or @giorno
  7. May 15, 2018
    #87

    carvajal Full Member

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    I´d say 400-450m€, considering that they will get 100-150 in sales.
    In any case it may be less, since they lost the sponsor for the stadium. It also depends on Neymar
  8. May 15, 2018
    #88

    Bastian Full Member

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    Cheers mate! That’s a proper budget.
    Just out of curiosity, who would you rather have, Neymar or Mbappe?
  9. May 15, 2018
    #89

    carvajal Full Member

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    My head tells me Mbappé, but my heart tells me Neymar, even though I am aware that it would be a chaos and it would end badly.
  10. May 15, 2018
    #90

    deafepl Full Member

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    Apparently, Ed Woodward is having a meeting with an investor in New York to announce the latest financial results on this Thursday and is expected to discuss United's summer transfer window plan and how much can they fund without sales.

    I hope it'd be positive.
  11. May 16, 2018
    #91

    Bastian Full Member

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    I get that, he's a pretty insane player. Just that lack of professionalism that's a huge worry in a dressing room. I think it was Duncan Castles who was saying that there may be a loop hole in that loan situation with Mbappe that Madrid were looking to explore. Personally, I'd much rather have Mbappe (but that's also because of who I support, hypothetically speaking Neymar would no doubt immediately want to join you guys if he ever joined us).

    Interesting. On the day the window opens. I would assume that the club can definitely spend 200m net this summer, if not more given that it's a one-off really. We don't need to address this many issues every season if we have a logical structure.

    If one of the Glazer-economist-explainer reads this, if our total revenue for last season was +600m, and our net spend was 140m, what other costs, besides the 230m wages are there and is it possible to see that itemised somewhere? As in total operating costs, including dividend payments to directors and the servicing of debts.
  12. May 16, 2018
    #92

    kundalini Full Member

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    The financial reports are available for anyone to read. http://ir.manutd.com/financial-information/quarterly-reports/2018.aspx

    Last season's total revenue was £581m. At the Q2 presentation in Feb 2018, the expected full year revenue for this season is between £575m and £585m.

    Salaries for last season were £263m and for the first half of this season, they were £139.5m. With Sanchez being paid double Mkhitaryan's salary, we will do well to keep the total full year wage bill under £280m.

    Zlatan was earning £43K per week plus £275K per start according to Football Leaks. Loaning Tuanzebe may have saved us about £300K compared to the first half of the season. We have added 84 employees compared to the first half of 2016/7.

    Other operating expenses were £61m for the first half of this season compared to £52m for the equivalent period last season.

    Net finance costs for the six months ended 31 December 2017 were £5.1 million, a decrease of £12.8 million, or 71.5%, over the six months ended 31 December 2016, due to unrealized foreign exchange gains on unhedged USD borrowings.

    We will see the figures for Q3 on thursday including, I assume, an update on the expected full year revenue for this season.

    This bit is interesting: Registrations Subsequent to 31 December 2017 certain registrations were disposed of for a total consideration, net of associated costs, of £18,556,000. The associated net book value was £24,277,000. Subsequent to 31 December 2017 certain registrations were acquired or extended for a total consideration, including associated costs, of £34,306,000.

    Dividends An interim dividend of $0.09 per share, the pounds sterling equivalent of which was £10.9 million, was paid on 5 January 2018. A similar dividend will be paid 5 June 2018.
    Last edited: May 16, 2018
  13. May 16, 2018
    #93

    Marcky411 Full Member

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    I really haven't got a clue what the board will decide to give Jose for this summer's transfer window. We did sign Sanchez in january and who knows if that deal gets counted with the budget for the summer. All I can say the players Jose brings better come in and hit the ground running otherwise they too will warm a bench more often than playing, e.g. Mihki, Lindelof and Bailly this season besides his injury. All I am really hoping for is that we don't buy another CD for the seasons running, there are other areas that need addressing more than our CD.
  14. May 16, 2018
    #94

    deafepl Full Member

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    I believe that's money is for Griezmann when we chased after him before finding out that Atletico Madrid has transfer window ban.
  15. May 16, 2018
    #95

    TheFlagStaysDown New Member

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    I think we will sign three players - A Leftback, Centre back and a midfielder, with a chance for Willian/Perisic type of experienced winger.. I can't see a big budget given to use to Mourinho, something like 150m but Blind + Darmian + Fellaini in wages/selling fee could make about 40-50mil to be realistic. Actually Shaw could mean another 20mil and Jones another 10 because he's a crock. so it depends who we sell..

    McT will be Fellaini replacement, Pereira another nice squad player so there will be some dynamic DM, CDM, box to box coming.. Tuanzebe might get Lindelof role, if he goes out on loan and TFM can cover right side with Tony V and Young.. New leftback could be more someone like Bailly, new CM will be interesting but spent the most money on, and CB looks like Toby - an experienced CB..
  16. May 16, 2018
    #96

    Bastian Full Member

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    Thanks for that! I'm looking at the sheets, and I see the debt is down from 409m to 328m (lowered by 19.7%). If our total revenue is 581m for last season and expected to be similar for this season, with the wages being up to 280m (as it stands) and we might again look to lower the debt by another 20% which would be another 66m. That's 346m (wages, debt servicing) subtracted from the total revenue figure, leaving around 230m. Dividend payments, are what, quarterly or twice during the year, around 10m at a turn?

    Is it a question of whether to service the debts to the same level as last season, whether or not we spend big in this window? It is theoretically possible to spend 200m (net) and keep things ticking in the same way they have been, lowering debt, but it of course also depends on getting out players on relatively high wages that aren't really contributors as they don't get a look in.

    Surely, as a club, we are not spending more than half our revenue on wages (not sure what the FFP rules stipulate) so I can see quite a few players leave. Not just Shaw, Darmian and Blind. Not merely to make room, but to keep the wages in tact.
  17. May 16, 2018
    #97

    Bastian Full Member

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    Currently linked players and possible prices
    Willian I could see sold for 35-40m. Chelsea won't want to sell on the cheap, but at his age they can't really be extreme. Similar to Matic, he wants out to be a starter.
    Alderweireld 40-45m.
    Sandro 50m.
    Fred 44m (release clause).

    Assuming the higher end of fees, that's around 180m. Darmian, Blind, Shaw might bring in 50-60m. Which would keep Jose's net spend on par with the last couple of seasons. If Martial goes, it of course changes the "dimension" as Jose likes to say.
  18. May 16, 2018
    #98

    kundalini Full Member

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    It would be more sensible for me to wait a day before writing any more since the Q3 figures may change the out-look. I will just say that the net debt figure you mention is actually defined as - the Net debt is calculated as non-current and current borrowings minus cash and cash equivalents. It does state: The gross USD debt principal remains unchanged. In other words, we are sitting on more cash for one reason or another.

    There are complicated rules on how much PL clubs can increase their wage bills. I think it is £7m plus any increase in revenue that has not come from the TV deal, though that may be an over-simplification. http://www.financialfairplay.co.uk/latest-news/premier-league-update-their-ffp-rules
  19. May 16, 2018
    #99

    Bastian Full Member

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    @kundalini

    I look forward to your input following the publishing of the Q3 figures!
  20. May 16, 2018

    T A New Member

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    Of course we cant know for sure about insightful stuffs but you can see the difference in our transfer policy between manager eras.

    Van Gaal's sales were disasters. Rafael (£2.5M), Kagawa (£8M), Nani (£4M), Chicharito (£7M), RVP (£4.7M) comparing to Mourinho's Schneiderlin (£24M), Memphis (£16M) and Micky (Sanchez swap). The inevitable consequence under VG era was that buyer clubs even sold same players for larger amounts than the money they paid us to have them (Nani (x2) Fenerbaceh-Valencia £7.3M, Chicharito (x2.5) Leverkusen-West Ham £16M).

    VG seemed not to care much about selling price, when a player was out of his favour, everyone in the world knew. VG did nothing to hide his intention of getting rid of all unwanted players within the nearest transfer window, in fact, he also tended to isolate them totally. This gave buyer a clear advantage in dealing price.

    Jose meanwhile did involve a lot. He never says a particular player is for sale. His favourite quotes referring to selling plan have always been "If a player want to leave and the offer is right,..." and "Every current player is still in my plan." As you can see, under pressure of fan expectation, he just spent our final home match to play the likes of out favoured Darmian, Blind, Shaw, Mata and Martial (his plan if Martial wasnt injured) instead of introducing some new youngsters. That is United merchandise show for upcoming transfer window and buyers should know that they must pay a decent price to have the name they wants, otherwise Jose will gladly keep any player until the end of his contract
  21. May 16, 2018

    Bestietom Full Member

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    After tomorrow's meeting in New York we will have a better idea how much of a transfer kitty we will have. But I would expect things to go well and Mourinho to be able to bring in 4/5 Players. After selling some of course.
  22. May 16, 2018

    Sing you a song Full Member

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    I think Martial will be the key to our spend.I expect him to be used as the makeweight for our biggest buy of the summer whether that be Bale or Kroos from Madrid or Sandro from juve or dare I say it Neymar from PSG !
    The only way I can see a mega star coming in is if we use Martial as bait
  23. May 16, 2018

    TehRed Full Member

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    Looks to me like there's probably £200m available, with money from player sales to be made available on top of the £200m.

    If we move for Alex Sandro, Fred and Alderweireld at the quoted prices (€50m, €60m and £40m respectively) then that's £135m approximately, when the first two fees are converted from Euros.

    I'd assume a sale of Martial or Mata would finance any RW player coming in, or at least the bulk of the fee.

    I still don't think we'll get a right back, but the likely departures of Darmian and Blind would contribute to that fee.

    If Fellaini leaves and we move for Milinkovic-Savic (if the media is to be believed) then he's another £80m on top.

    So there's £80m plus £135m for £215m, with that extra £15m being covered by the either one of the Blind or Darmian sales, and any extra money for a right back coming from potentially selling the likes of Shaw, Romero, Sam Johnstone, Andreas Pereira etc. Any sale of Martial or Mata plus surplus from the sales of the previously mentioned players would cover a right winger coming in.
  24. May 17, 2018

    Bastian Full Member

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    Here's a link to the third quarter results. The club continues to expect the total revenue for 2018 to be between 575m and 585m. A link to the results conference.

    I'll wait to see what the number-glancers make of this.
  25. May 17, 2018

    walkinhop Full Member

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    One Million Dollars
  26. May 17, 2018

    Bastian Full Member

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    From the BBC:

    Manchester United has seen its third quarter revenues rise by 8.1% to £137.5m, from £127.2m a year before.

    The Old Trafford club, which plays against Chelsea in the FA Cup final on Saturday, also recorded a small profit for the quarter of £100,000.

    Despite defeat by Spain's Sevilla in the Champions League the club has stuck to its revenue targets for the current year, of £575m to £585m.

    The club finished second in the Premier League behind rivals Manchester City.

    Ed Woodward, executive vice chairman, said: "As another season nears its close, we have achieved our highest number of points and finish since 2012-13 and we look forward to another trip to Wembley.

    "We anticipate another successful summer tour in the United States in preparation for the 2018-19 season."

    Broadcast revenues were up 26.4% at £39.7m. Commercial revenues were slightly higher, and matchday income was 6% higher at £31.1m.

    New deals
    Four sponsorship deals were signed during the three months to April including new deals with Chinese insurance firm PingAn and sports nutrition firm Science in Sport.

    A deal with South Korean pharmaceuticals company Cho-A-Pharm was renewed, and one with Chinese mattress maker Mlily was extended.

    However, total sponsorship revenues for the quarter were down by 0.2% to £41.7m compared with a year before.

    Wages for the quarter were £75.1m, an increase of £8.6 million, or 12.9%, "primarily due to player salary uplifts related to participation in the Uefa Champions League".

    But other operating expenses for the quarter were £26.3m, a decrease of £4.4m, or 14.3%, reflecting lower home domestic cup gate share costs, reduced travel costs and a reduction in foreign exchange losses.

    Net debt at the end of March stood at £301.3m, a decrease of 17.7% over the year.
  27. May 17, 2018

    kundalini Full Member

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    I suspect that wages will constrain what United are able to do in the transfer market. If they want to spend big, then they are going to have to move players out, to the extent that the total wage bill doesn't change much. This is problematic because most of their targets will want higher salaries than those players that seem likely to depart. So expect more to leave than arrive, with the gap perhaps being made up by lower paid young players currently out on loan, or a smaller first team squad.

    In terms of the transfer budget, it really depends upon whether the club wants to save money in case of a rainy day, spend what it can currently afford, or rack up credit card debts. Putting figures to those terms, I think the net expenditures we have seen in recent years are roughly what the business can afford. If anything, the rise in wages, £75m in the third quarter, on track for £290m for the full year, up from £263m last season, makes me think we should have slightly less money available for transfers than previous years, as our total revenue is predicted to be largely unchanged from last year, though there are some other expenditures that appear to be down on last year.
    Last edited: May 17, 2018
  28. May 17, 2018

    Bastian Full Member

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    Interesting. I did think that too with the overall wage budget and the level of players we are likely to sign that we would probably be seeing more players leave than arrive.

    I have no clue how accurate or speculative this is, but here individual wages are listed (might just be a copy paste effort from FM dressed up as a report):

    Jones: 50K
    Darmian: 60K
    Martial: 65K
    Rojo: 70K
    Shaw: 70K
    Blind: 75K
    Fellaini: 80K
    Smalling: 80K
    Mata: 140K

    Blind, Shaw and Darmian are likely to go. That's maybe 205K off the wage bill. We don't know what Fellaini does, but I really hope the club is not stupid enough to grant him some mega contract. Mata is quite a high earner given he's not essential to Jose's plans.

    The Sanchez wages are pretty ludicrous. And we of course are yet to tie down Dave who rightly would be looking to get at least parity with Pogba, if not closer to Sanchez.

    If we are signing 4-5 players I think both Mata and Martial are off plus one of our centre backs. In other words, we'll likely raise the overall wage budget whilst increasing our income through sales..