Discussion in 'General Forum' started by ciderman9000000, Aug 24, 2011.
Fair enough, moving on from that then.
I don't think Irwin is a wolf. Choosing you and and Redsky to check on first wasn't exactly contraversial, and he said Top should lso be a priority. He seems to be helping in my view and has been very active. If he was a wolf I'm not sure he would be the best candidate to be the active wolf wit the way previous games have gone.
The three people I had as suspects were Crappy, Top and Wayne_Rooney:
Top: Made a big thing with the Seers not checking him, thought that was odd. He's now dead.
Crappy: Didn't post until this morning, but then I looked at the last game and he did the same thing. So that blows that theory.
Wayne_Rooney: Made that slip up regarding voting. But that could be a simple noob mistake.
Essentially, theres fuck all to go on.
Yes.. I am gonna come up with my suspect list after reading the thread again...
I guess the question to ask is, why Top? They must have presumed, as I did anyway, that he is not a PV. So what made him a target?
I went through the thread and compiled what I could find of people talking about Top. See if we can glean something.
Shall we just start posting the 3 people suspect list then?
I'm saying it again but the werewolves in the last game mentioned it again and again that it was a pain in an ass.
and let's get a clear majority over private and public voting so as to save future time and debate.
I'll be honest. I thought he was a PV, he joked about being a Supreme Mason. He was goading the Wolves, he also kept mentioning the Witness in pretty much a quarter of his posts.
I was convinced he was the Witness trying to do what I did last game. Try and fool everyone in thinking he was a normal villager.
Okay, so I forgot about this the first night. I guess that's a good thing really, as posting a lot on the first night doesn't seem like a good idea.
Top slaughtered? I'll have a quick read and see what I can gather. Someone mentioned irwin's theory briefly? Can someone elaborate on that? I need to catch up a bit here.
The wolves dont really need to select a "target". They read the forum like you and me, then vote to slaughter someone depending on the village stance at that moment in time. It could very easily be a curveball here aswell, just keep your wits about you.
I'm not sure. As a wolf Top was always against anything elaborate or trying bluffs and double bluffs etc. I imagine he would be the same no matter what his role was.
My immediate thought is that it's a quite risky move by the wolves. I can only assume that they thought
a) Top was a Power Villager
b) He's shown himself to be a good player and they fear his instincts if he's allowed to live.
As usual, the first few lynchings are going to be fucking hard to get anything useful out of.
That just my gut feeling, he was very similiar in his posting style to me last game. Lets hope i'm wrong
If the wolves thought Top was a PV, then I guess they thought he was the witness.
If not, that's a bold, bold move on such a high-profile player. The witness, if it wasn't Top and knew what he was doing, could very well have been following him.
Has Excal even tried to verbally abuse Mickey yet? Very suspicious
Also, Top was one of the top posters so far, amassing 44 posts. Whatever that means. I guess an active, high-profile player would always be seen as a threat to the wolves.
It's possible that the witness chose right last night. If I was him/her/it and I had bagged a wolf, I would be observing for a while before telling all.
I think it sounds like a good idea.
We have all day though, so maybe wait till a bit later in the afternoon. I thought feeky had some sound analysis earlier, would like to see what more people have to say now that we have our first kill.
The post count so far for those who are in to that sort of thing:
RedSky At Night 45
Mr Anderson 25
phelans shorts 17
Interval Level 7
Desert Eagle 5
Everyone has posted now I believe.
Why did you think me?
If you bagged a wolf as a witness, surely there is no reason not to just come out and say it straight away? You'll go back to being regular villager after that, so you wouldn't be a target for anything save vengeance.
I'm just on my phone gents, will have a nosey in this thread properly when I get back from the gym
If anything, it would mean a lesser chance to get killed as the wolves are more likely to target players who have a chance of being a PV, especially when they're stabbing in the dark as they are at this moment in time.
I remember Cassius last game made a list of people midtable very early on. I'll term the phrase as "Shadow" players. People lurking in the background. So i've removed the top/bottom 8 players to get a list of Shadow Players:
I remember this was very effective last game for Cassius. He got 4 wolves in his list, something to consider methinks. I don't want to make the same mistake and ignore the shadow players this time around.
True, it is a valid point. It still depends on a few variables:
1) Time of vote: Did the wolves vote early? Basically lastnight (GMT) before Top got more and more vocal.
2) Did top actually put pressure on a wolf: Possible, but he only named RedSky I think, check out redsky seers!
3) Curveball: Get top as he hasnt targetted the correct people.
I hate the first day or 2, nothing to go on and a few still to be active. So just trust no-one
Experienced player, a threat later in the game. Not an obvious choice, potential to be a PV. Its the safe option for a Wolf kill.
I'm probably getting my ordered iPhone sometime before the game ends(or I'm slaughtered.) This means two things:
- I'll probably be looking at this thread every single minute every single day. (Maybe not quite.)
- My girlfriend will probably leave me.
Yeap.. witness needs to come out as soon as he gets the wolf..
I really hope we have a smart witness with some great intuitions... will be a massive help to get a wolf from him
I tried to come up with a list of suspects but hard right now, I am sure at least one wolf is being very vocal right now so that will be my cue to start with.
Failing that I am afraid we may have to go for people we think might be less helpful than others. Or just wait for someone to slip up
Well the moment you give the name that wolf is essentially out of the game. Everyone including wolves will vote for him. But if you don't let on about it, you could accuse the person for other reasons and see how other people react. You may be able to spot other wolves trying to deflect attention away. Then even if you can't gather support for the lynching you can reveal all and the village will still get its wolf and will have more info than it would have had you exposed the wolf straightaway.
The perfect scenrio is lynching the wolf without outing yourself. Then the wolves will still think the witnes is about and change their tactics accordingly.
Well I hope they checked me out last night. Me, Top and Crappy are the obvious choices to check when theres nothing to go on early game.
Although there was one player that brought my attention last night. But i'm keeping that name close to my chest because they could be a PV, just unusual behaviour.
I'll try and go through Top's posts. What the village can't afford to do this time around is ignoring the hunches of the slaughtered people. Some things I'll be keeping an eye on:
Who posts a lot without really saying anything. Like Top in the last game, and also Solius.
Who did the slaughtered people suspect? After all, we know those weren't wolves, and in most cases, the wolves tactics consists of killing those who are close to the mark in terms of guessing wolves, if they don't have a strong PV-hunch.
This is true, although if say the village goes 3 or 4 turns without seemingly lynching a wolf(and this is about the time that the priests start to come out, judging by previous games), then the witness should perhaps out himself anyway to get the ball rolling. Then voting patterns, defence of eachother and reactions might be telling. Nice work, Scrumps.
Problem with this is if anyone bothered to read Ciders journal from the last game then it should be fairly obvious that people need to listen to slaughtered instincts. It could be an easy way for the Wolves to throw us off the scent.
I do agree in principal, but I know that i'm a villager and by killing Top it makes me look guilty as hell. Thats a calculating move by the Wolves, which is important in deciphering who the Wolves are. A tactical, calculating move.
You're not considering that the witness might get slaughtered
It is true in many respects. It could be a move to get rid of 2 experienced players in the one go. Get Top, then get the town to sway towards you for tonight.
Absolutely, if the wolf dies today they don't implicate anyone, witness should save any announcement for now.
Yeah, but the witness element blurs the lines here. What the wolves did last time around, and what is the sensible thing to do, is to just get rid of those who are about to gain momentum on their correct theories. That's what I would do if I were a wolf.
I'm not sold on these double-bluff theories. As Top himself said post-game 3, those are more often than not only a means for villagers to confuse themselves. More often than not, wolves do the sensible, safe thing to do. They're scared of the witness, so they must've been fairly certain that Top was a PV in order for them to risk killing a big player so early.
As for you in particular, well you're always going to be a suspect isn't you?
I know you're on my watch list, if only because you're so adept at leading the village. In fact, clearing you would be a great start for the village. What I urge you to though is less throwing names around, and more observing behaviour and reactions, all those wild theories cause confusion.
Dunno Top only started to suspect you this morning, they may have made the decision to kill him last night it self. In any case, I won't vote for you today because I reckon there is a good chance you will be checked out by seer soon enough.
Well the witness should definitely reveal themselves before the lynching on that day (unless they can lynch the wolf without it). I would pursue the wolf all day and then reveal myself at 8 or so if it came to nothing.
I think we should just start by looking at peoples hunches. If we could just name a player or two who we're suspicious of and have a discussion before actually naming our lynch, we could actually have a fruitful opening night than the previous one.
Yeah. Thats true. Bagging the first wolf is very important. It gives a good momentum to the whole game.
Separate names with a comma.