World Cup Betting Thread

Discussion in 'Football Forum' started by Samid, May 21, 2018.

  1. Jun 6, 2018
    #41

    King7Eric Full Member

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    Put a fiver on Argentina to win and Lukaku to be top scorer at 200/1. :wenger:
  2. Jun 8, 2018
    #42

    Danny Roberts Full Member

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    I wouldn't mind that as an outcome. Messi almost "deserves" to win but I can't see it happening.
  3. Jun 8, 2018
    #43

    King7Eric Full Member

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    Yeah it would be a shame if he ends his career without winning the WC. It wouldn't diminish his career in any way but still it would be a miss. Also, I have the feeling that with Ronaldo winning and performing so well in 3 CLs and winning the Euros, its almost feels like its Messi's turn to show up now.
  4. Jun 8, 2018
    #44

    slyadams Full Member

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    Pretty sure its 6 in 10m, or about 1 in about 1.6 million.

    But yeah, 0.8 is incredibly high, even if you take it down to 0.7 (still optimistic) the odds suddenly become 1 in 8 billion.
  5. Jun 8, 2018
    #45

    Danny Roberts Full Member

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    He usually does ok. Needs his teammates to show up!
  6. Jun 8, 2018
    #46

    Danny Roberts Full Member

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    If you can pick winners with an 80% success rate just back them as singles. 60% is probably a push I reckon.
  7. Jun 8, 2018
    #47

    P-Nut0712 fan of well-known French footballer Fabinho

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    Done my pre tournament bets today they are....

    Griezmann top scorer and Brazil/France/Germany to win
    Werner top scorer and Germany or Brazil to win

    Suarez, Giroud and Lukaku all to be their club teams top scorer. I.E Suarez to outscore all other Barcelona players at the World Cup.
  8. Jun 11, 2018
    #48

    Danny Roberts Full Member

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    I like Werner and Germany. Might get involved with that actually.
  9. Jun 11, 2018
    #49

    Blatzo Full Member

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    I'm looking for a bet to put on the first match day:

    I'm currently thinking Under 2.5, Saudi Arabia +1 or maybe under 3.5.

    I can see it being a cagey opener - perhaps 0-0 or 1-1
  10. Jun 11, 2018
    #50

    Danny Roberts Full Member

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    I can see the Saudis ruining the party so Saudi +0.5 or +1 good at longish odds.
  11. Jun 11, 2018
    #51

    Macern SeARcHeS iMagEs oF fO0tbAlLeRs bAllSaCkS

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    Any tips for good bets in the first couple of games? I’m considering Spain to beat Portugal at 1.95, how does that sound?
  12. Jun 12, 2018
    #52

    Danny Roberts Full Member

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    Yeah, I like that too but with Ronaldo I guess odds-on could be short in a "derby".
  13. Jun 12, 2018
    #53

    Samid follows Pogue around, fixing his images

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    Not good enough imo. Could see it being a cautious draw. Spain have been poor in all opening games since 2010 so generally they seem to be slow starters.

    At first glance Saudi to score @ 2.20 looks interesting but I will probably avoid that game because of the corrupt feckers on both sides.

    Morocco @ 2.35 seems like the standout option in the first two days.
  14. Jun 12, 2018
    #54

    Macern SeARcHeS iMagEs oF fO0tbAlLeRs bAllSaCkS

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    Cheers! 2.35 is quite decent, I think I’ll go for that
  15. Jun 12, 2018
    #55

    Havak Pokemon master

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    I'm tempted to back Russia/Saudi Arabia under 2.5 goals on day one, then (if it comes in) let that ride into an Uruguay/Morocco double on day two. Any thoughts?

    Could get greedy and let that ride onto a France & Argentina double on day three, if they all come in you've turned £20 into £180~
  16. Jun 12, 2018
    #56

    redspoony Full Member

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    I only ever bet during a tournament. I'll be honest, I don't really understand odds and stuff, not that interested.

    I've stuck a fiver on Werner for top scorer and will use the other fiver in my account for in play.

    I've only ever won one bet, that was in play for a 1-0 Portugal win in the Euros final. £45 win.
  17. Jun 12, 2018
    #57

    Pagh Wraith Full Member

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    I have dutched Brazil and Argentina for combined odds of 3.55 (360€)

    Other bets:

    Columbia to reach the quarter-finals 240€ @ 3.00
    Morocco to qualify for the knock-out stages 120€ @ 4.33
    Morocco to reach the quarter-finals 80€ @ 15
    Mexico to go out in R16 160€ @ 3.00
    Croatia to reach the quarter-finals 240 @ 3.25

    Still thinking about top goalscorer. Think Cavani (@26), Suarez (26) and Falcao (60!) are all value bets.
  18. Jun 13, 2018
    #58

    Prometheus Full Member

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    Using Machine Learning Techniques to Predict the World Cup winner.
  19. Jun 13, 2018
    #59

    Danny Roberts Full Member

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    A lot of these machines and stats are BS IMO. Didn't one give Peru a better chance than England? I don't think any experts or bookies would agree and it's bookies and punters who are prepared to bet on it, not stats guys looking for publicity.
  20. Jun 13, 2018
    #60

    Pagh Wraith Full Member

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    This is true. Computer models can definitely aide your betting decisions but high-liquidity efficient betting markets are the best tool for predicting future results. Pinnacle Sports' closing lines are ultra-efficient and the amount by which a pre-closing-market price beats the closing price provides an excellent prediction for the expected value of your bet. Meaning that if you beat the closing price (minus bookmaker margin) by 5% your long-term expected value will be almost exactly 5%.

    That is why laugh whenever someone says things like (using this year's CL final) "Oh Real are definitely going to win this" or "I feel Liverpool will cause an upset" and then bet accordingly. Both are vague irrelevant statements. The closing price (1X2) was 2.35 - 3.72 - 3.06 so we can be pretty certain that the true probabilites of a Madrid win were 41.8%, a Liverpool win 32% and a draw 26.2% after 90 minutes.
  21. Jun 13, 2018
    #61

    Danny Roberts Full Member

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    The market isn't 100% accurate but I take your point. And yup, when it comes to most punters' approach to betting there is no understanding of value but then if you're just in it for a bit of fun so be it.
  22. Jun 13, 2018
    #62

    JP77 Full Member

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    Already spent a lot on plenty of outside tournament bets. Now onto the matches themselves.

    Russia 2-0 for the opener.

    Backed Al-Sahlawi for first scorer too simply because he trained with United the other month :lol:
  23. Jun 13, 2018
    #63

    Jimmy Greenhoff's Chest New Member

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  24. Jun 13, 2018
    #64

    whatwha Sniffs Erricksson’s diarrhea

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    Bet365 free live bet for Portugal vs Spain on Friday.
  25. Jun 13, 2018
    #65

    Mrs Smoker Full Member Scouse Lover

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    220 / Yellow cards 2.00 • 15.00 • 1.70 • 1.75 • 1.40
    10 / Red cards 3.25 • 7.00 • 1.50 • 2.20 • 1.20
    660 / Corners 1.50 • 15.00 • 2.80 • 1.30 • 2.20
    161 / Goals 1.85 • 15.00 • 1.85 • 1.75 • 1.75

    less • exactly • more • less or exactly • more or exactly

    Any advices for these?

    That's 3.44 yellows per game, 0.16 reds (or one in six games), 10.31 corners per game and 2.52 goals. Even allowed to combine them all but cards with each other.
  26. Jun 13, 2018
    #66

    The Purley King Full Member

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    I am on Werner for top scorer.
    No other bets made yet.
    Usually the first game is pretty tight so will likely go 0-0 for that one.
  27. Jun 14, 2018
    #67

    Danny Roberts Full Member

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    Think there will be a lot of 0-0s and 1-0s in this first round.
  28. Jun 14, 2018
    #68

    Mrs Smoker Full Member Scouse Lover

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    Saudi Arabia, Iran, Costa Rica, South Korea and Nigeria NOT winning a group game @ 11.74 (bet365)
    Over 220 yellow cards with over 660 corners and 161 goals in whole of World Cup @ 8.81 (local)
  29. Jun 14, 2018
    #69

    rcoobc Not as crap as eferyone thinks

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  30. Jun 14, 2018
    #70

    Mrs Smoker Full Member Scouse Lover

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    Luis Suarez and Diego Costa under 2.5 goals and Antoine Griezmann and Junior Neymar under 3.5 goals at World Cup @ 10.68 (bet365)
  31. Jun 14, 2018
    #71

    RedPed Full Member

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    Have gone for the William Hill promos:

    Brazil to win the World Cup @5.00

    Romelu Lukaku top goalscorer @17.00

    For every game that Brazil win and for every goal that Lukaku scores in the tournament, I get a £5 free bet.
  32. Jun 14, 2018
    #72

    RedPed Full Member

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    England v Belgium
    Switzerland
    v Costa Rica
    Serbia v Brazil
    Nigeria v Argentina
    South Korea v Germany
    Spain
    v Morocco
    Iran v Portugal
    England
    v Panama
    Germany v Sweden
    Belgium v Tunisia
    Brazil v Costa Rica
    France v Peru
    Portugal v Morocco
    Germany v Mexico

    @175.24
  33. Jun 14, 2018
    #73

    P-Nut0712 fan of well-known French footballer Fabinho

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  34. Jun 14, 2018
    #74

    RedPed Full Member

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    I bombed out of the Paddy Power one on the first day! :( Went against my instinct too.
  35. Jun 14, 2018
    #75

    ROFLUTION Full Member

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    Good Luck with that :D Id have them all above those lines
  36. Jun 14, 2018
    #76

    Mrs Smoker Full Member Scouse Lover

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    Good luck to you too. My stakes are low for those, so, if you have something nice on those, genuinely, good luck.
  37. Jun 14, 2018
    #77

    ROFLUTION Full Member

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    Got Diego Costa to win a looot of money :D took a crazy longshot on Liverpool over City (6.00) + Costa at 41.00.. Nice and decent odds back then. Will probably end at 1-3 goals though..
  38. Jun 14, 2018
    #78

    NoPace Full Member

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    Iran, Costa Rica and Nigeria seem capable enough defensively that I think one should sneak a win on the counter.
  39. Jun 14, 2018
    #79

    Mrs Smoker Full Member Scouse Lover

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    Iran could do it against Morocco at most, Nigeria maybe against Iceland, but Costa Rica is in quite the group...Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia. Tough.
  40. Jun 14, 2018
    #80

    NoPace Full Member

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    5 at the back might frustrate the Swiss or Serbs though, could see Costa Rica soaking up pressure and getting one on the break.