These stats are strange - no matter how you look at them

lysglimt

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Everton and Crystal Palace have scored 40 and 36 goals respectively. Man United, Liverpool and Chelsea have scored a total of 204 goals or an average of 68.

Despite this - Palace alone, have got as many penalties (9) as United, Liverpool and Chelsea combined. While Everton have got 8 penalties.

So a bottom club and a mid-table club who can't score goals - get roughly 1 penalty every 4 games. While 3 of the best clubs in the country - who probably spend a lot more time in the opponents penalty area - get one penalty every 12 games.

I know statistics rarely tell the true story - but I always find it a bit strange when the topclubs are far behind other clubs in penalties awarded
 

Decomposing In Paris

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I fear this may be one influence of money on the game.

It's the old "Dog bites man is not a story, but man bites dog..." A team near the bottom gets a penalty which potentially causes an upset, will either lead to the story of a big club slipping up, or it will provoke a dramatic reaction. Either way, the game will be more entertaining. Alternatively, the big club gets a penalty as the first goal in a game, the game may be over, and a complete non-story.
 

Tommy

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I fear this may be one influence of money on the game.

It's the old "Dog bites man is not a story, but man bites dog..." A team near the bottom gets a penalty which potentially causes an upset, will either lead to the story of a big club slipping up, or it will provoke a dramatic reaction. Either way, the game will be more entertaining. Alternatively, the big club gets a penalty as the first goal in a game, the game may be over, and a complete non-story.
Potentially.

My initial thought was that the referees don't want to be perceived to have bias towards certain clubs. Lots of refs in the country probably support the 3 bigger clubs given in the example, but a lot fewer would have any bias towards Everton/Palace, so they feel more comfortable giving them the closer calls.
 

JamesO

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Paul Tomkins done an analysis on this a few weeks back. It's even more shocking than you think as the reality of it all is that English players win pens at a FAR higher rate then foreigners do.
 

Decomposing In Paris

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One other aspect to be considered, IIRC, there were very few penalties given in matches between the top 7 clubs this year... that's 14 of the 38 games.
 

el3mel

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We never got any penalties even when it's clear we should get one. I gave up on such point long time ago.
 

Njord

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I feel a reason for this is that referees know that if they wrongly award a top club a penalty, or wrongly miss a call for a team playing against a top team it is blown up a lot more in the media than the opposite cases. A good example of this is when we didn't get a penalty against West Brom, and it was hardly mentioned, compared to when Bournemouth didn't get a penalty against us, and it was the main talking point after the match.
 

CA1

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I've said for years this line that gets trotted out by the bottom/middle clubs about a "Top 6 bias" is absolutely horse shit. It's the other way round if anything.

Herrera against West Brom the other week, 100% penalty. Was never really mentioned again, and we played awful don't get me wrong but it would have changed the game.

If West Brom had that turned down there would be questions in the House of Commons.
 

VeevaVee

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Does seem like they may be favouring giving them in small games because they know they aren't under scrutiny.

Paul Tomkins done an analysis on this a few weeks back. It's even more shocking than you think as the reality of it all is that English players win pens at a FAR higher rate then foreigners do.
Guessing it's because it used to seem like more of a continental thing where the players were flashier and throwing themselves around more. Not so much anymore but probably a hangover.
 

MrBest

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Top clubs have more money to spend on training facilities so players are stronger and better equipped to not tumble over
 

FC Ronaldo

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Paul Tomkins done an analysis on this a few weeks back. It's even more shocking than you think as the reality of it all is that English players win pens at a FAR higher rate then foreigners do.
Got a link? Send in inbox if you can’t post another reply. Ta
 

Chipper

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Zaha dives a lot. Sometimes he gets booked for diving when being fouled too. :lol:

Palace have had lots of penalties down the years. Remember when Andy Johnson kept getting them?
 

cyberman

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They could be messing about with recycled possession when top sides have got their shots off.
Being more hesitant could give the opposition more of a chance to nick the ball or foul the attacker? ?
 

JamesO

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Got a link? Send in inbox if you can’t post another reply. Ta
Out and about at the moment but I'm pretty sure it was a free article on his website. Tomkinstimes.com. Think the article was around beginning of April if you look for it.

If you have no joy I'll stick a proper link to it when I get home.
 

shamans

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I'm gonna steer away from the other opinions on here and say maybe it is the fact lower teams lack quality in the box and thus play for a penalty (much like how many lower clubs play for a foul).

Top teams don't look for penalties as often?
 

Smores

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Zaha dives a lot. Sometimes he gets booked for diving when being fouled too. :lol:

Palace have had lots of penalties down the years. Remember when Andy Johnson kept getting them?
My brain had literally purged any memory of Andy Johnson. Managed to somehow get an England cap too i think
 

Swift Football

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Everton and Crystal Palace have scored 40 and 36 goals respectively. Man United, Liverpool and Chelsea have scored a total of 204 goals or an average of 68.

Despite this - Palace alone, have got as many penalties (9) as United, Liverpool and Chelsea combined. While Everton have got 8 penalties.

So a bottom club and a mid-table club who can't score goals - get roughly 1 penalty every 4 games. While 3 of the best clubs in the country - who probably spend a lot more time in the opponents penalty area - get one penalty every 12 games.

I know statistics rarely tell the true story - but I always find it a bit strange when the topclubs are far behind other clubs in penalties awarded
I feel a reason for this is that referees know that if they wrongly award a top club a penalty, or wrongly miss a call for a team playing against a top team it is blown up a lot more in the media than the opposite cases. A good example of this is when we didn't get a penalty against West Brom, and it was hardly mentioned, compared to when Bournemouth didn't get a penalty against us, and it was the main talking point after the match.
You are just trying to build a story when there is none. The thing is the number of penalties awarded is so few that you cannot draw any significant statistical conclusion from that. For e.g., the average number of penalties awarded is between 4 to 5. there are number of clubs who have been awarded just below average, like 3 penalties. Over the course of season, there could easily be 1 or 2 one off situations/decisions that might comfortably lead these same below average club to above average (in terms of penalties awarded). I remember discussing this topic in Talking Reds in 2013/14 season where Liverpool, Chelsea and City were awarded highest number of penalties closely followed by Spurs and United.

If we want to see if there is a trend in penalties, then we need to analyze good number of years. You can make a weak case for few expected trends but its not consistent enough. For e.g., a team who spends lot of time in opponents box being awarded more penalties - Man City in last few years. A tricky player earning more penalties like Zaha for Crystal Palace. A team that is good in counterattack being awarded more - like Leicester in last few years. A team that plays with high line conceding more - like Arsenal conceded some 10 penalties in 13/14 I think.

Referres are trained not to be biased towards bigger club, and at the same time, not do the opposite and punish them. They seem to make some wrong calls, some for and some against big clubs, so over the season it will be normalized.

Only trend that is significant in penalties is Home teams are awarded more penalties (around 60%) than away teams (around 40%).
 

Gio

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If we want to see if there is a trend in penalties, then we need to analyze good number of years. You can make a weak case for few expected trends but its not consistent enough. For e.g., a team who spends lot of time in opponents box being awarded more penalties - Man City in last few years. A tricky player earning more penalties like Zaha for Crystal Palace. A team that is good in counterattack being awarded more - like Leicester in last few years. A team that plays with high line conceding more - like Arsenal conceded some 10 penalties in 13/14 I think.
This.

Counter-attacking is a big driver here - an under-manned defence desperately recovering back to its own goal is more likely to give away a penalty than an organised low block.
 

Enigma_87

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Can't remember United having large number of penos in the course of a season since the days of Ruud.
 

Blatzo

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Everton and Crystal Palace have scored 40 and 36 goals respectively. Man United, Liverpool and Chelsea have scored a total of 204 goals or an average of 68.

Despite this - Palace alone, have got as many penalties (9) as United, Liverpool and Chelsea combined. While Everton have got 8 penalties.

So a bottom club and a mid-table club who can't score goals - get roughly 1 penalty every 4 games. While 3 of the best clubs in the country - who probably spend a lot more time in the opponents penalty area - get one penalty every 12 games.

I know statistics rarely tell the true story - but I always find it a bit strange when the topclubs are far behind other clubs in penalties awarded
Paul Tomkins done an analysis on this a few weeks back. It's even more shocking than you think as the reality of it all is that English players win pens at a FAR higher rate then foreigners do.
It's like an all you can eat buffet of statistical fallacy and selective bias up in here.

You can't cherry pick the clubs that prove your point and use it as evidence that an effect exists. You conveniently left out THE "top" team - how do the stats look right across the league?

Equally the thing on English players winning more penalties.. aren't there more of them? Granted Tomkins may have factored for it - I've not seen his analysis
 

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One explanation, not sure if I'll explain it well but anyway...

Could be that top clubs spend more time in the oppo half, so lesser teams style of play is much more likely to be counter attacking, and that is when defenders are more likely to be drawn into a tackle that concedes a penalty.

Also, lesser teams spend longer defending in the game, with more men behind the ball so perhaps are more drilled on not lunging in etc and holding their numbers.

Whereas top teams are often defending a lot less in most games and so individual error due to lack of focus when defending is more likely for them.
 

lysglimt

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It's like an all you can eat buffet of statistical fallacy and selective bias up in here.

You can't cherry pick the clubs that prove your point and use it as evidence that an effect exists. You conveniently left out THE "top" team - how do the stats look right across the league?

Equally the thing on English players winning more penalties.. aren't there more of them? Granted Tomkins may have factored for it - I've not seen his analysis
I am not proving any point - I just find it strange that 2 mediocre clubs get as many penalties as 3 of the best clubs in the P.L. Especially if you add to the fact that these 3 clubs spend a lot more time attacking than Everton and Palace do. I never said it was wrong - although I generally feel topclubs get a lot fewer penalties than they should.
 

Blatzo

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I am not proving any point - I just find it strange that 2 mediocre clubs get as many penalties as 3 of the best clubs in the P.L. Especially if you add to the fact that these 3 clubs spend a lot more time attacking than Everton and Palace do. I never said it was wrong - although I generally feel topclubs get a lot fewer penalties than they should.
But you picked the two clubs.

And you picked the 3 clubs that suit your argument from the top clubs.

Grab a deck of cards and pull a random one out. Repeat this 52 times. Record which card you choose and then, after you've seen the results, marvel at the card that appeared 3 or 4 times when some of the others didn't even appear even once.
 

RedTillI'mDead

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Paul Tomkins done an analysis on this a few weeks back. It's even more shocking than you think as the reality of it all is that English players win pens at a FAR higher rate then foreigners do.
Still have to look at details. Maybe its a factor of style of play. English players maybe less technically skillful so to get to top of game speed and nimbleness becomes a factor and therefore more likely to be involved in late challenges in the penalty box
 

Chipper

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Martial missed one didn't he? And Sanchez converted one, right?
League:
Leicester (H) Lukaku - miss
Everton (H) Martial - scored
Huddersfield (H) Sanchez - miss (scored on the rebound)

CL
CSKA Moscow (A) Martial - scored
Benfica (H) Martial - miss
Benfica (H) Blind - scored
 

redshaw

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Could be counter attacks from lower teams and last ditched tackles from the top teams but then how many pens are between matches with other lower teams?

I do feel like in the last five years there was also a move by refs to avoid complaints of favouring the big teams. It may have gone too far the other way now. When big Sam or Mark Hughes see a dodgy decision playing against United it's big club bias, when one goes against them while playing another lower team it's just bad refereeing or part of the game.
 

JustFootballFan

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I get the sense that referees swallow their whistles for one of three reasons

1) to generate more drama
2) out of sympathy for the plucky underdog fighting the evil powers of the rich clubs
3) not to be acccused of favouring the big teams

This imho is alsp the reason the big teams always get endless additional minutes they don´t deserve (like Liverpool today) to score a winner/equalizer.