VanHaal'sRedArmy
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- Jun 28, 2015
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An insult to all Juvenile and flawed studies in history.This abomination is being discussed and roundly mocked already. A juvenile, flawed ‘study’
This is exactly why it’s such a joke. They should leave ‘studies’ to competent people. My thesis advicer would throw me out a window if I came up with some shit like this. Like someone else posted, they probably couldn’t believe their luck in being allowed to ‘work’ on this.From 380 matches... they only used 157 incidents to come up with this table. So they deem there to be less than 1 significant potentially match changing incident in every two Premier League matches. Get in the sea.
U need to watch that game again because the scoreline was flattering to deceive.How were we lucky to beat Swansea it finished 4-0
You don't win 4-0 by luck, it's 4 bloody goals. Our late goals were also quite well constructed.U need to watch that game again because the scoreline was flattering to deceive.
https://ok.ru/video/346636225109You don't win 4-0 by luck, it's 4 bloody goals. Our late goals were also quite well constructed.
I am quite confident that they deem it lucky because Pogba 'should' have been sent off when it would have been quite a harsh second yellow (City get away with those fouls every game).
I think you are wrong here.If this was showing the opposite then this forum would be loving it.
So if Swansea scored a fluke goal we would have struggled? Do you know the implications of that? It means we would have been unlucky.https://ok.ru/video/346636225109
here's the extended HL
At 0:0 Swansea almost scored a fluke goal - if that went in Swansea would have gone full park the bus mode. They were already playing really defensively the whole match till the 80th min when the tried to go for it and opened up at the back - thats when the goals started coming for us.
And if Pogba got a second yellow - which he deservedly should have? what then?So if Swansea scored a fluke goal we would have struggled? Do you know the implications of that? It means we would have been unlucky.
I think you are also missing the detail of us scoring from a corner at the end of the 1st half. Dead ball situations are much less affected by the game state than open play, even if Swansea were up and parked the bus that set piece goal would have probably happened anyway since we would be the ones attacking.
Ha, ha. You should be so lucky..........Heh, finally first and Liverpool getting relegated, dreams coming true.
Maybe you just ignored what I wrote since I already addressed that?And if Pogba got a second yellow - which he deservedly should have? what then?
edit: You should also know we're pretty bad at coming back when behind
It's also not statistics. It's ludicrously flawed, invalid, potentially cherry picked drivel of the highest order. I'd quite possibly sack one of my analysts if they delivered this excrement.Stats in football is getting out of control. This is nonsense.
Maybe they felt Pogba should have got a 2nd yellow when the score was 0-0https://ok.ru/video/346636225109
here's the extended HL
At 0:0 Swansea almost scored a fluke goal - if that went in Swansea would have gone full park the bus mode. They were already playing really defensively the whole match till the 80th min when the tried to go for it and opened up at the back - thats when the goals started coming for us.
Honestly you could probably have gotten a better result by using Football Manager than this model. These things don't take into consideration the mentality of players at all. There can be such a massive difference, a shift in mentality when something changes in a match, be it a red card or a goal. I don't think these metrics can take them sufficiently into account. Does it take into account the difference of conceding/scoring in the 2nd minuted and the 44th minute?A detailed mathematical forecasting model was built by the team at the University of Bath to predict the outcomes of each game controlled for:
o Time of incident
o Penalty conversion rates
o Red card coefficients
• Other factors taken into account for forecasting were:
o Team strength
o Form
o Home advantage
• Each game was then simulated 100,000 times using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model, with the median score probability taken as the new result for each match.
Just watching the games takes up 26 of those 60 days or almost half the time. Take away the time spent sleeping, eating and not working and how much time are you left with? This increases the chances of error even more.The team had 2 months to collect, analyse and forecast data from all 380 Premier League games