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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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onemanarmy

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Going by whats coming out this morning parliament will never vote on her deal. She doesn't want the loss.
Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but what happens if the parliament doesn't vote? Automatically a no-deal Brexit?
 

Smores

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Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but what happens if the parliament doesn't vote? Automatically a no-deal Brexit?
Is that you Theresa?

It would be if they didn't vote at all but i think they're going to try and avoid a loss or amendments and instead let the alternatives be put forward in their own right so we'd have a vote on them instead.

I think parliamentary procedure would usually enforce the vote on Mays deal and the speaker has previously said as such but I'm sure the government will find some contemptuous way round it
 

sun_tzu

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Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but what happens if the parliament doesn't vote? Automatically a no-deal Brexit?
yes... and no
If there is not a vote by 21st Jan then parliament basically gets a bigger say in what happens and they could potentially bring forward a binding motion to prevent no deal... the issue is that legally the default position is to no deal so to enforce their binding motion they would have to extend or abolish A50 - or get a deal approved
Basically its a big bloody mess and nobody is sure what happens
i suspect early in the new year they put forward some non-binding motions to see what kind of deal might get through the commons hoping to find a majority for something - I dont think they will and then I dunno its too late to do a referendum without extending A50 which the Eu may not accept anyway - and I dont think she would withdraw A50 so i guess default position of no deal (which parliment may have tried to block)
Its over used but genuinely probably a constitutional crisis
 

onemanarmy

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Thanks guys. As I see it, the EU already stated multiple times that it's this deal or no deal, but I guess it's in the best interest of both to at least get some kind of deal. They are both playing hard ball at the moment.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Going by whats coming out this morning parliament will never vote on her deal. She doesn't want the loss.
I hear talk of amendments, but amendments to what?

As far as I am concerned there is only a choice between No deal, cancel Brexit and the deal on the table.

That's why I mentioned NI, at this moment May is determined for the Uk to leave the EU so she'll go through No Deal if she has to and try to separate NI from the rest of the UK. After all she said she would never do that so it's pretty much odds on she will.

Overall it's a constitutional crisis. I'm sure someone said there was a benefit to Brexit.
 

stevoc

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Who's going for the outcome:
May's deal get's voted down including by the DUP .
May throws the DUP under a bus and put's the Irish border in the Irish sea with NI staying in the CU and SM.
Rest of the Uk fall off the cliff and Scotland declare war on England.
That would probably be the quickest and easiest way for her to resolve all this now.
 

Smores

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I hear talk of amendments, but amendments to what?

As far as I am concerned there is only a choice between No deal, cancel Brexit and the deal on the table.

That's why I mentioned NI, at this moment May is determined for the Uk to leave the EU so she'll go through No Deal if she has to and try to separate NI from the rest of the UK. After all she said she would never do that so it's pretty much odds on she will.

Overall it's a constitutional crisis. I'm sure someone said there was a benefit to Brexit.
Subject to ratification by the speaker for whatever they want but it seemed clear prior to May pulling the vote that blocking no deal, asking for an extension and referendum were going to be put to vote. I still expect them to be tabled in any indicative motions

We're talking about amendments to approach rather than to the deal. The deal is the deal without new red lines and that would require extension and probably a GE
 

Ekkie Thump

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Yes we have a veto but the EU are looking to end rebates and 2020 is the end of the current one.
Right, but a veto means just that. We have to waive the veto in order to lose the rebate. If all EU countries bar the UK wanted to end the rebate they still couldn't do so without our acquiescence.
 

Smores

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Kuensberg must be writing the BBC live blog today, they're reporting all Mays 'zingers' and missing out key statements that portray May badly
 

Sassy Colin

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Smores

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sun_tzu

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I was being jestful but my point stands, i always have both BBC and Guardian blogs open to follow these as i want quotes not biased interpretation so with both hopefully covered. The BBC are consistently omitting or backfilling items whilst missing key exchanges or quotes out.

It's not on when so many get their news primarily from the BBC
to be fair the bbc is somewhere between the mail and the guardian (both being somewhat on the right / left)... if the BBC coverage was comparable to either the mail or the guardian there would be something wrong
 

Paul the Wolf

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John Redwood, the Tory Brexiter, asks May to confirm there would be no tariffs on manufacturing components in the event of a no deal Brexit. That would boost manufacturing, he says.

May says the government is looking at this issue.

This is criminally stupid and negligent.

More moronics from another Brexiter:

Sir Edward Leigh, a Tory Brexiter, says he could be persuaded to vote for the deal if there were a legally binding protocol saying, that if the backstop ceased to be temporary, it would no longer be binding.

May welcomes Leigh’s comment. She says she wants to ensure the backstop never gets used.
 
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MoskvaRed

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John Redwood, the Tory Brexiter, asks May to confirm there would be no tariffs on manufacturing components in the event of a no deal Brexit. That would boost manufacturing, he says.

May says the government is looking at this issue.

This is criminally stupid and negligent.

More moronics from another Brexiter:

Sir Edward Leigh, a Tory Brexiter, says he could be persuaded to vote for the deal if there were a legally binding protocol saying, that if the backstop ceased to be temporary, it would no longer be binding.

May welcomes Leigh’s comment. She says she wants to ensure the backstop never gets used.
I just checked Leigh’s Wiki page and he is a barrister by profession....
 

Jippy

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John Redwood, the Tory Brexiter, asks May to confirm there would be no tariffs on manufacturing components in the event of a no deal Brexit. That would boost manufacturing, he says.

May says the government is looking at this issue.

This is criminally stupid and negligent.

More moronics from another Brexiter:

Sir Edward Leigh, a Tory Brexiter, says he could be persuaded to vote for the deal if there were a legally binding protocol saying, that if the backstop ceased to be temporary, it would no longer be binding.

May welcomes Leigh’s comment. She says she wants to ensure the backstop never gets used.
Mogg must know she can't guarantee no tarriffs on components and how the hell will it 'boost manufacturing'? I guess it sounds better than 'feck it over slightly less'.

That Leigh sentence makes my head hurt.
 

Smores

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The fact MPs and the house want and are willing to cut short the christmas recess but the government refuses is embarrassing.

I can't figure anywhere in today's statement where May clarifies what she achieved from speaking to the EU or what she's planning to get.
 

sun_tzu

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Probably doomed to fail but still the right option to push for it

Damned if you do damned if you don't and at least it keeps the pressure on and the naritive that she's screwed
 

Ubik

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Presumably that's the follow up motion when this one fails
Government don't have to schedule time for this one, they do have to for an actual confidence vote.
 

sun_tzu

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Government don't have to schedule time for this one, they do have to for an actual confidence vote.
Yes but if they don't schedule time surely they have to follow up with an actual confidence vote... Especially based on the tweet from the whips which say not to debate is to admit she's lost the confidence of the house...

Clearly it's a trap as lots of the erg would vote against her but almost certainly not against the government... And it's such an obvious trip there is no way they allow the vote and walk into it.

As such labour really have to call a confidence vote or look like a pointless opposition
 

Cheesy

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So unless I'm reading it wrongly, the motion won't actually unseat the government but just allows Labour to pretend they're being proactive?
 

sun_tzu

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So unless I'm reading it wrongly, the motion won't actually unseat the government but just allows Labour to pretend they're being proactive?
I think it's a prelude to a full confidence motion
It gives the cover that they tried other options and are not playing party politics

They know the government probably won't make time for the debate
 

Giant Midget

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What's happening?
Corbyn tabled a Vote of No Confidence. However, this isn’t the VoNC we were hoping for. That would be a VoNC in the government, this is a VoNC in the PM herself, and is thus non-binding and does not lead to any direct consequences.

However, the past precedence has been that a PM resigns if they lose a VoNC in themselves. As for when this would take place, well, the Government could simply not allow it to take place at all, which would look terrible, but losing it would look even more terrible, so who really knows?
 

Hephaestus

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What's happening?
Corbyn has put forward a vote of no confidence in May. Crucially, it's in May not the government so doesn't trigger the 14 day clock set out in the Fixed Terms Parliment Act, meaning May can lose with zero actual consequences other than embarrassment. Reckon if the vote goes ahead then they will probably just abstain to prevent it from even having any symbolism.
 

sun_tzu

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BREAKINGSpeaker grants emergency debate on EU Council
Emergency Debate request


House of Commons

Parliament


HoCCopyright: HoC
Speaker John Bercow says that he is satisfied that this is enough for an emergency debate.

He says he will advise MPs later, towards the end of the day in the Commons, for how long the debate should take and when it will take place.

He says there is "good reason" why he can't provide the time and length immediately, as he normally would.
 

onemanarmy

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Interesting to see what the EU will do when Brits start coming to the continent to ask for political asylum. Can happen any time soon. :lol: