Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

Status
Not open for further replies.

Spiersey

Full Member
Joined
Feb 15, 2012
Messages
7,385
Location
United Kingdom.
Supports
Chelsea
On Wolves -1.25 from 1-1 in play.
Half loss.
Also on The Strongest over 6.5 team corners at 10/11 with PaddyPower and Betfair, should be around 1/3. Took over 10/11/12 as well and also over 10 second half at 100/1 etc.
Over 6.5 won easily. Over 10 second half has a chance, goal has probably killed it though. Need 6 in the last 30, probably about a 10/1 chance now.
 

Berbaclass

Fallen Muppet. Lest we never forget
Joined
Jan 23, 2010
Messages
37,981
Location
Cooper Station
Barca v Madrid BTTS & Over 2.5 @ 1.80
Leipzig @ 1.75
PSG -3.0 AH @ 1.80
City -1.5 AH @ 1.73
Celtic -1.5 AH @ 1.73

Just done those as 6 with over 2.5 in the Hertha/Bayern game. Could probably get better prices.
 

Jagga7

Full Member
Joined
Oct 23, 2011
Messages
7,079
Location
in a cave
Bet on Bayern -1.5 vs Hertha @2.025 and City -1.5 @1.8.

Messi is on the bench and Real aren't a free scoring team anymore. I think under 2.5 @2.6 are great odds, though I don't think I will bet it.
 

Berbaclass

Fallen Muppet. Lest we never forget
Joined
Jan 23, 2010
Messages
37,981
Location
Cooper Station
Barca v Madrid BTTS & Over 2.5 @ 1.80
Leipzig @ 1.75
PSG -3.0 AH @ 1.80
City -1.5 AH @ 1.73
Celtic -1.5 AH @ 1.73

Just done those as 6 with over 2.5 in the Hertha/Bayern game. Could probably get better prices.
4/6 not too bad I guess!
 

Pagh Wraith

Full Member
Joined
May 2, 2011
Messages
4,361
Location
Germany
@Spiersey

Would you agree that most price moves in football betting are initiated by SBO/IBC and Pinnacle follows them? That has been my impression for a while and looking at some (limited) data seems to support that.
 

Spiersey

Full Member
Joined
Feb 15, 2012
Messages
7,385
Location
United Kingdom.
Supports
Chelsea
@Spiersey

Would you agree that most price moves in football betting are initiated by SBO/IBC and Pinnacle follows them? That has been my impression for a while and looking at some (limited) data seems to support that.
For mainstream I'm not too sure tbh, I don't follow price movements on that type of stuff (unless it moves over 0.5 a goal on the day of the game then I'll look into it a bit) so for that stuff I'm really not the person to ask. From memory I'm pretty sure SBO are the big dog in Prem pricing or so I've been told. Pinnacle margins are so small pre that they actually make a loss on pre game football, so I doubt anyone follows them.

This is generally what happens for obscure games. Obscure might be a bit harsh, I'm on about outside the top 8 leagues basically, so youth football, Inty football qualifiers (afcon, Asia etc).

Most games will be on Singbet, IBC, ISN, Pinnacle and some others. Singbet almost always has the biggest limits for these, so 365 will follow it religiously in play. It's where the biggest stakers (and generally they are the best gamblers) will place their bets so it makes sense to follow them. IBC and Pinnacle are sometimes the only bookie to trade really obscure stuff (Gibraltar Premier League, Austria Regionlliga are often Pinny only, U17s/Fiji Premier league are often IBC only). In this situation, the limits in Asia are sometimes 60/70 max bet so 365 won't follow them in play sometimes (even if Asia is hit to 1.3, they'll follow their own pricing)
 

Pagh Wraith

Full Member
Joined
May 2, 2011
Messages
4,361
Location
Germany
Thanks for the explanation.

Bets for tonight:

Real Betis v Valencia, Valencia 0 @ 2.08
Guingamp v Lyon, Guingamp 1 @ 1.96
Lazio v Empoli, Empoli 1.25 @ 2.21
 
Last edited:

John_Dooh

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Feb 7, 2019
Messages
378
Supports
Liverpool
Been enjoying your tips for a while guys, so felt I had to register to try to contribute!
Speed Skating now - Roest should be a good bet to win, but could only find him @ 1,7 vs field - so now I have him @1,85 vs Kramer.
I wish you all good luck, and keep up the good work! :)
 

John_Dooh

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Feb 7, 2019
Messages
378
Supports
Liverpool
To elaborate, He and dutch didn't participate in last WC, which a noggie(like me) won, an Norwegians are now hyping their chances as pr usual. Roest should be the best of the Dutch, and have been unfortunate in a couple of the 4 wc's this season, these conditions shoud favour him.
 

Jean claude van hire

Full Member
Joined
Aug 6, 2013
Messages
658
Thanks for the explanation.

Bets for tonight:

Real Betis v Valencia, Valencia 0 @ 2.08
Guingamp v Lyon, Guingamp 1 @ 1.96
Hi P W. quick question for you (forgive my ignorance please). Does this mean essentially you are just taking Valencia to win??? Or to score zero goals?? By the same token is this a 1 goal start for Guincamp v Lyon (and therefore they only need a draw for the bet to land??)

I'd also welcome the views from the resident experts on here wrt handicap betting. I see a lot of guys favour -1 scenario when quite often the h/t f/t odds are very similar?? I tend to feel more confident of this landing than a -1?? I know there are circumstances where one comes in and the other doesn't but I just struggle to find the argument for -1 over the alternative? Any advice appreciated folks :)
 

MC89

Full Member
Joined
Oct 5, 2018
Messages
1,520
Location
Glasgow
Supports
Celtic
Sorry to anyone who took my tip today, Walking Thunder was cruising going round the bend and just never picked up,
North America won very easy though

Had a lot of money on the double aswell, not complaining, that’s gambling win some you lose some.

There won’t be any British racing until Wednesday at the earliest
 

Pagh Wraith

Full Member
Joined
May 2, 2011
Messages
4,361
Location
Germany
Hi P W. quick question for you (forgive my ignorance please). Does this mean essentially you are just taking Valencia to win??? Or to score zero goals?? By the same token is this a 1 goal start for Guincamp v Lyon (and therefore they only need a draw for the bet to land??)
It means I'm betting Valencia on the Asian Handicap 0. That bet is the same as "Draw No Bet".

Added Empoli for tonight. Lazio are missing key players.
 

Jean claude van hire

Full Member
Joined
Aug 6, 2013
Messages
658
It means I'm betting Valencia on the Asian Handicap 0. That bet is the same as "Draw No Bet".

Added Empoli for tonight. Lazio are missing key players.
Ah right thank you for the info explanation.

Ps MC89, I don't think there's any need to apologise, it takes a few losses to appreciate the wins more:)
 

John_Dooh

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Feb 7, 2019
Messages
378
Supports
Liverpool
1 / 1. Roest got silver medal, and even though Kramer got the bronze it was never close.

I am on J.Tingnes-Boe in the Biathlon @ 2,5 - he's won 10/14 races so far this year and shot well in the warm up, so should be good price. Good have got him in top 3 for 1,44 but he's a hit/miss kinda guy.

Considering Betis - Valencia U2.5, V should play on result from 1.leg so expect tight game.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Spiersey

Full Member
Joined
Feb 15, 2012
Messages
7,385
Location
United Kingdom.
Supports
Chelsea
Hi P W. quick question for you (forgive my ignorance please). Does this mean essentially you are just taking Valencia to win??? Or to score zero goals?? By the same token is this a 1 goal start for Guincamp v Lyon (and therefore they only need a draw for the bet to land??)

I'd also welcome the views from the resident experts on here wrt handicap betting. I see a lot of guys favour -1 scenario when quite often the h/t f/t odds are very similar?? I tend to feel more confident of this landing than a -1?? I know there are circumstances where one comes in and the other doesn't but I just struggle to find the argument for -1 over the alternative? Any advice appreciated folks :)
I'm assuming you mean -1 euro handicap as opposed to -1 asian. I'd take a - over htft if there was a reason to do so, e.g Fitness gulf, so chance of 2 late goals is higher than normal, altitude etc. I don't have a set method for either, would just be taken on a per game basis.
 

Jean claude van hire

Full Member
Joined
Aug 6, 2013
Messages
658
I'm assuming you mean -1 euro handicap as opposed to -1 asian. I'd take a - over htft if there was a reason to do so, e.g Fitness gulf, so chance of 2 late goals is higher than normal, altitude etc. I don't have a set method for either, would just be taken on a per game basis.
I take your point in that there are so many factors to consider when placing either type of bet. I sometimes feel it is overly optimistic to expect a team to win by two clear goals, but of course on the flip side the team has 90 minutes to address the risk and not just the 45. I think part of me is influenced by the all conquering United teams (and Chelsea of course;)) that used to have the contest won by half time... then again in that case the -1 bet would be in also, so I'm just totally contradicting myself:lol: Thank you anyway!
 

Spiersey

Full Member
Joined
Feb 15, 2012
Messages
7,385
Location
United Kingdom.
Supports
Chelsea
Will start appearing on more sites today and tomorrow but Arsenal women is a great bet at 2.3 to beat United women. Should be around 1.4/5
2-1 FT, should have been more, missed a lot of chances at 2-0 and were pretty dominant after a dodgy first 30.
 

Berbaclass

Fallen Muppet. Lest we never forget
Joined
Jan 23, 2010
Messages
37,981
Location
Cooper Station
I’ve taken Sydney -1 AH @ 2.05 in the morning. Brisbane are just terrible and have their first choice GK suspended and also their LB after the two reds last week and Sydney are the much superior team. Should at the very least win. Represents tremendous value IMO
 

John_Dooh

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Feb 7, 2019
Messages
378
Supports
Liverpool
2/2, JTB won the biathlon by a landslide, shooting 20 straight hits. 50€ @ 2,5.

Needs to be said, I have no expertise on US sports what so ever.
Took a punt on Lakers and Thunder 10€ -10.5 @ 7.08. Lakers were terrible last game, but looked good without Lebron against Clippers. I think they'll bounce back, even though trading deadline rumours regarding them are off the charts, I just feel 4,4 is way to high for the calibre of players they have(as of this minute). Combined it with OKL -10.5. Thunder, and especially Westbrook(on record hunt) are in great form, and even if Grizzlies have won last two I have watched them a bit lately, and think they are one of the worst teams in the NBA.

In the NHL I am looking at the Capitols, lost my bet 8 seconds before final whistle last game when I had them @-1,5 vs Canucks. However, I think they are coming back to form, and resting Ovechkin over the all star break should help them. Expect a high scoring game, so ended going for O6.5 as Colorado has a lot of goals in them also and a leaky defence. I also like the Islanders tonight, NJD conceding for fun, so a bet on those two 50€ @ 3,63.

Couldn't post until now due to daily limit, probably all the better so no one can follow these bets :)

Winter sports - Looking at Vlhova tomorrow in the Alpine Combined, 3,88 (odds boost) should be a great price in a two horse race with Holdener the favourite. 1.46 for top three, will decide tomorrow after latest info.
 

haram

New Member
Joined
May 28, 2017
Messages
12,921
Needs to be said, I have no expertise on US sports what so ever.
Took a punt on Lakers and Thunder 10€ -10.5 @ 7.08. Lakers were terrible last game, but looked good without Lebron against Clippers. I think they'll bounce back, even though trading deadline rumours regarding them are off the charts, I just feel 4,4 is way to high for the calibre of players they have(as of this minute). Combined it with OKL -10.5. Thunder, and especially Westbrook(on record hunt) are in great form, and even if Grizzlies have won last two I have watched them a bit lately, and think they are one of the worst teams in the NBA.
Rondo buzzer beater ;)
 

Pagh Wraith

Full Member
Joined
May 2, 2011
Messages
4,361
Location
Germany
Köln v St. Pauli, Over 3.0, 1.75 units @ 2.11
Regensburg v Bielefeld, Bielefeld 0.25, 1.5 units @ 2.12
Dijon v Marseille, Dijon 0.25, 1.5 units @ 2.21
Chievo v Roma, Over 3.0, 1.75 units @ 2.21
Mainz v Leverkusen, Mainz 0.5, 1.5 units @ 1.98
 

Marty1968

Full Member
Joined
Oct 2, 2013
Messages
1,899
Bet for tonight/tomorrow - AZ Alkmaar, Roma, United, Dortmund, Monchengladbach, Luton - 13/1

Also loving the Paddy Power offer for 10+ away goals in the Premier League games tomorrow at 7/5. Reliant on us and Arsenal scoring a couple each but could see that covering easily enough. All other away teams could conceivably score 1 goal at least
 

haram

New Member
Joined
May 28, 2017
Messages
12,921
I’ve taken Sydney -1 AH @ 2.05 in the morning. Brisbane are just terrible and have their first choice GK suspended and also their LB after the two reds last week and Sydney are the much superior team. Should at the very least win. Represents tremendous value IMO
Of course Sydney lose :lol:
 
Status
Not open for further replies.