Top Four Race 2018/19

[SqueakyWeasel]

They will finish with 70 + points....how can they not be in the race?!

With injuries piling up Man. United will start dropping points more regularly in the league I suspect so suddenly your expected final points total will come in below 80 points.

Going to be a tight one, whoever gets to 75 points makes 4th, though that for a while. Could be a GD job.

I have no idea why this is fecking with so many peoples heads but I didn't ever say United would walk 4th place at any time!

With 33 points still up for grabs (36 for Chelsea) your estimates are there-or-thereabouts for any of the three teams looking at 4th place.

I merely said that Arsenal do not worry me personally as being one of the teams challenging (which they obviously are currently) … even from the heady heights they reached in the table after yesterdays game I think the games they have upcoming and the mental state of their team, the uncertainty about their ambitions and their continued participation in the EL will be too much for them come May.

It's a personal opinion and if you disagree with it that is your right … I'm not in any position to tell you that your thoughts are wrong!

 

[SqueakyWeasel]

Why are you so angry ? I'm going to leave you with your United mates, you're inches away from a mental breakdown. May the best team get 4th

That's the spirit! Ever wondered why you seek validation on a competitors message board?

 

[FootballHQ]

I have no idea why this is fecking with so many peoples heads but I didn't ever say United would walk 4th place at any time!

With 33 points still up for grabs (36 for Chelsea) your estimates are there-or-thereabouts for any of the three teams looking at 4th place.

I merely said that Arsenal do not worry me personally as being one of the teams challenging (which they obviously are currently) … even from the heady heights they reached in the table after yesterdays game I think the games they have upcoming and the mental state of their team, the uncertainty about their ambitions and their continued participation in the EL will be too much for them come May.

It's a personal opinion and if you disagree with it that is your right … I'm not in any position to tell you that your thoughts are wrong!

It was just the certainty of opinion that bemused me.

Not saying Arsenal are certainties to get 4th but I'm sure they'll still be in the mix come May and the final games.

Little different to say Spurs trying to chase down Liverpool and Man. City and either of those fans not being worried by Spurs in the slightest as that is more logical based on points and everything.

 

[awop]

That's the spirit! Ever wondered why you seek validation on a competitors message board?

As i said. Mental. Breakdown. Seek help mate

 

[charlenefan]

The thing with Arsenal is they're awful away from home, so almost every away game looks like dropped points

 

[Djemba-Djemba]

Arsenal are complete flat track bullies, their record at home to the weak sides is incredibly good.

Their away form is appalling and has been for a few years now though. So they have to win every home game, any slip up at home and they're fecked because they can't rely on getting much away.

 

[Giggs86]

I'm hoping Spurs beat Chelsea and Arsenal in their next two games.

First rule of football is you should never hang your hopes on Spurs to do anything.

 

[WR10]

Arsenal will have their usual end of season run in where they start to realize that once again they have failed themselves but truly next year is their year. Typical

Finishing 4th will be a massive success from here on out. We need to beat them and I have a feeling they won’t let us do that again.

 

[amolbhatia50k]

Worriedno about injuries ruining/hampering our chances to finish in the top 4. Hopefully we can get through the next couple of weeks without much damage.

 

[SqueakyWeasel]

As i said. Mental. Breakdown. Seek help mate

That's the way to win an argument … in a playground or behind a computer keyboard.

Enjoy 4th place for the rest of the week "mate" I'd say there's even a chance you'll be lying in 5th or six as early as Wednesday evening but I reckon even your lot can handle Bournemouth so relish the feeling until late Saturday afternoon.

 

[Treble]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/?ex_cid=rrpromo

According to 538, we are finishing 6th, on 70 pts, 2 pts off Chelsea and Arsenal.

That is, they have us dropping 15 pts in the last 11 games which seems a bit too much. I guess, they don't take into account the improvement under Ole. The fixtures are difficult though and with those injuries one can't be sure of anything. Palace away will be a very difficult game for a start.

 

[Gandalf Greyhame]

Suddenly looks a bit more difficult given our injuries right now. Arsenal have the easier run in we have big games against City, Chelsea and Arsenal all left along with some tricky away fixtures like Wolves away.

Arsenal only have us and Spurs. The rest seem winnable for them.

We cannot afford to drop points on Wednesday.

 

[amolbhatia50k]

It feels like the odds are against once again when you consider the injuries and comparative fixture lists.

Suddenly looks a bit more difficult given our injuries right now. Arsenal have the easier run in we have big games against City, Chelsea and Arsenal all left along with some tricky away fixtures like Wolves away.

Arsenal only have us and Spurs. The rest seem winnable for them.

We cannot afford to drop points on Wednesday.

Yeah feel the same way. Then again, we have a much better squad that Arsenal's so if we can get a few key players like Herrera and Martial then we can do it. Plus we play arsenal at home of course.

 

[Adisa]

If we can get our players back soon, we'll do it. The next month is about getting performances out of players like Pereira and Fred.

 

[SqueakyWeasel]

It feels like the odds are against once again when you consider the injuries and comparative fixture lists.

Yeah feel the same way. Then again, we have a much better squad that Arsenal's so if we can get a few key players like Herrera and Martial then we can do it. Plus we play arsenal at home of course.

Games remaining to play assuming no further participation in EL for Arsenal (unlikely and could be draining), and no further participation in the CL for United (likely) … also assuming no further participation in the FA cup after Wolves for us (cough ).

Think the original guy, talking about fixtures (@Gandalf Greyhame I think), forgot to cancel out that we play each other, he made it sound like it was something worse for us (when the game comes sandwiched between two EL ties for them); the City home (for us) and Spurs away (for them) sort of cancel each other out; we both have Wolves away (but the Arsenal fixture is being rescheduled currently so the original poster probably missed that one (when he said it was something we would have to overcome); our big games (after Arsenal ) come well after the international break so we should hopefully be back to full strength by then; and we have a favourable last couple of games if it's hanging in the balance compared to their last two.

Arsenal:
Bournemouth H
Spurs A
Rennes A (EL)
Manchester United
Rennes (EL)
Wolves A (Postponed currently not announced)
INTERNATIONAL BREAK
Newcastle
Everton A
Watford A
Palace
Leicester A
Brighton
Burnley A

United:
Palace A
Southampton
PSG A (CL)
Arsenal A
Wolves A (FA Cup)
INTERNATIONAL BREAK
Watford
Wolves A
West Ham
Everton A
City
Chelsea
Huddersfield A
Cardiff

I said yesterday that Arsenal do not worry me … and I got crucified for having an opinion! Perhaps that was hasty, and I do know that "anyone can beat anyone in this league on the day" but after watching the "highlights" of them scrape past third last placed Southampton at home yesterday I'll stay with my prediction.

 

[Nickthepip]

Wednesday is going to be tough. They are playing pretty well and we'll have a patched up side. Just have to scrap out a result.

What's frustrating is I've no doubt we're a better side than both Arsenal and Chelsea. If it hadn't been for our horrible pre Christmas form we'd have been right up with Spurs, arguably ahead of them now.

If we're not in the top four come the end of the season, someone has got very lucky.

 

[Mogget]

Games remaining to play assuming no further participation in EL for Arsenal (unlikely and could be draining), and no further participation in the CL for United (likely) … also assuming no further participation in the FA cup after Wolves for us (cough ).

Think the original guy, talking about fixtures (@Gandalf Greyhame I think), forgot to cancel out that we play each other, he made it sound like it was something worse for us (when the game comes sandwiched between two EL ties for them); the City home (for us) and Spurs away (for them) sort of cancel each other out; we both have Wolves away (but the Arsenal fixture is being rescheduled currently so the original poster probably missed that one (when he said it was something we would have to overcome); our big games (after Arsenal ) come well after the international break so we should hopefully be back to full strength by then; and we have a favourable last couple of games if it's hanging in the balance compared to their last two.

Arsenal:
Bournemouth H
Spurs A
Rennes A (EL)
Manchester United
Rennes (EL)
Wolves A (Postponed currently not announced)
INTERNATIONAL BREAK
Newcastle
Everton A
Watford A
Palace
Leicester A
Brighton
Burnley A

United:
Palace A
Southampton
PSG A (CL)
Arsenal A
Wolves A (FA Cup)
INTERNATIONAL BREAK
Watford
Wolves A
West Ham
Everton A
City
Chelsea
Huddersfield A
Cardiff

I said yesterday that Arsenal do not worry me … and I got crucified for having an opinion! Perhaps that was hasty, and I do know that "anyone can beat anyone in this league on the day" but after watching the "highlights" of them scrape past third last placed Southampton at home yesterday I'll stay with my prediction.

You didn't get crucified for having an opinion, you got crucified because you said Arsenal aren't even in the race for top 4. The team currently sitting in 4th place with 11 games left doesn't have any chance of finishing top 4, according to you.

And we didn't scrape past Southampton, we could have won by 5 or 6 goals.

I think it's pretty safe to discount any of your football opinions.

 

[SqueakyWeasel]

You didn't get crucified for having an opinion, you got crucified because you said Arsenal aren't even in the race for top 4. The team currently sitting in 4th place with 11 games left doesn't have any chance of finishing top 4, according to you.

And we didn't scrape past Southampton, we could have won by 5 or 6 goals.

I think it's pretty safe to discount any of your football opinions.

Here we go, the Arsenal crowd on the Manchester United message board are labelling the fixture list as a "football opinion" of mine

 

[Member 90887]

Taking into consideration our injuries and the remaining fixtures, it certainly looks like Arsenal have more chance of finishing Top 4 than us. it'll depend on our game against them. it will be a must not lose game.

Chelsea won't win against spurs this Wednesday, they played 120 minutes this Sunday. so the game against palace is crucial and a must win. if we do, we could reclaim 4th from Arsenal this week-end as they are playing Spurs.

Arsenal Next 2
Bournemouth H
Spurs A

United next 2:
Palace A
Southampton H


If we go to the Arsenal game 4th, the pression would be on them to win. that will play right into our hands.

And from then on, it will be a game by game story. it would be ideal if we win at the emirates and have a 4 points cushion on them, it would offset potential lost point in our games against City Home.

 

[awop]

That's the way to win an argument … in a playground or behind a computer keyboard.

Enjoy 4th place for the rest of the week "mate" I'd say there's even a chance you'll be lying in 5th or six as early as Wednesday evening but I reckon even your lot can handle Bournemouth so relish the feeling until late Saturday afternoon.

Jesus, a bit longer and you'll ask me why i am looking at you that way. Settle down Graeme.

Here we go, the Arsenal crowd on the Manchester United message board are labelling the fixture list as a "football opinion" of mine

Backtrack all you want mate, you said something stupid, even your United mates (you know the only people allowed to post on this sacred board), called you out on it.

Anyway, we'll have a clearer picture by March 10th.

 

[SqueakyWeasel]

Jesus, a bit longer and you'll ask me why i am looking at you that way. Settle down Graeme.


Backtrack all you want mate, you said something stupid, even your United mates (you know the only people allowed to post on this sacred board), called you out on it.

Anyway, we'll have a clearer picture by March 10th.

Hello, you again , not surprising you jump in on the back of another person's post … yet again!
Why don't we leave it there, you obviously don't want any form of discourse other than you expecting me to say "Arsenal are fantastic and nailed on for that fourth place spot" … we all know that's not going to happen because, as previously stated, I don't believe it.

Unfortunately, I think your team is too weak mentally to get that fourth place spot this year. It's all I said and I'm happy to keep saying it every time you send me playground abuse about my mental state and me needing to get help.

Rather than the 10th March lets leave it until the end of the season … PLEASE!!!!

If I'm wrong about my feeling and you get fourth place (never ever said we would) I'll willingly come back here and apologise … is that OK?

 

[Escape Goat]

Arsenal:
Bournemouth H
Spurs A
Rennes A (EL)
Manchester United
Rennes (EL)
Wolves A (Postponed currently not announced)
INTERNATIONAL BREAK
Newcastle
Everton A
Watford A
Palace
Leicester A
Brighton
Burnley A

The Arse could easily drop points in any/all of those away games, and home to Newcastle and Palace (as well as the obvious).

 

[cyberman]

I dont think Arsenal are a threat to United the same way Liverpool aren't to City.
It's ridiculous that they're barely ahead of us with our players taking half of the season off. Unless Jose comes back then there's no way they will keep up with us.

 

[SqueakyWeasel]

The Arse could easily drop points in any/all of those away games, and home to Newcastle and Palace (as well as the obvious).

I know, but apparently, I'm having a mental breakdown, so all those games could actually be just made up!

 

[awop]

If I'm wrong about my feeling and you get fourth place (never ever said we would) I'll willingly come back here and apologise … is that OK?

That's perfect, thank you very much

 

[SqueakyWeasel]

That's perfect, thank you very much

Great, and there's no obligation for you to do anything in return …

 

[Trizy]

If we miss out on the top 4 then its on the Glazers not Ole, they've refused to strengthen the team over the last 2 Windows regardless of who the manager was/is!

Hindsight is a terrible thing but the proposed signings they refuse to make recently:

Maguire - Not much of an upgrade if any - £50-70m
Willian - Trade for Martial who is much better
Perisic - We already have Martial who is much better - £50-60m

It also doesn't boost you with confidence how most of Jose's signings worked out.

It looks like Woodward was right. But we'll never know was he refusing to spend due to worrying signings (see above) or not allowing us to spend due to the Glazers.

This summer will tell an awful lot.

 

[rotherham_red]

Today was a big blow. For me it was a must win for top 4 and the injuries have made it even less likely. I can't see us beating Palace on Wednesday.

Dafuq? Let's compare Chelsea and Arsenal's record against them shall we? Chelsea - 1 draw; 1 unplayed. Arsenal - 1 draw; 1 loss. Hardly a fecking hammer blow, is it?

 

[Minimalist]

It’ll go to the wire I imagine. Still have a good chance to pull it off.

Think people need to keep reminding themselves where we were when Ole came in. Still an incredible job.

 

[charlenefan]

Suddenly looks a bit more difficult given our injuries right now. Arsenal have the easier run in we have big games against City, Chelsea and Arsenal all left along with some tricky away fixtures like Wolves away.

Arsenal only have us and Spurs. The rest seem winnable for them.

We cannot afford to drop points on Wednesday.

Why is Wolves away tricky for us and not Arsenal?

 

[JJ12]

The beauty with arsenal is it's pointless looking through their fixtures looking for tough games because they'll drop points unexpectedly. Wouldn't be surprised if Bournemouth get something off them.

 

[Red4Ever]

Why is everyone only talking about united v arsenal

Chelsea are there too and actually showed a bit of spirit yesterday at least

 

[charlenefan]

Why is everyone only talking about united v arsenal

Chelsea are there too and actually showed a bit of spirit yesterday at least

It remains to be seen of course but I wouldn't put it past these Chelsea players to temporarily put aside their feelings for the manager when there's something in it for them (i.e. a medal)

 

[FootballHQ]

Arsenal are complete flat track bullies, their record at home to the weak sides is incredibly good.

Their away form is appalling and has been for a few years now though. So they have to win every home game, any slip up at home and they're fecked because they can't rely on getting much away.

They did win their last away in premier league.....o.k it was Huddersfield!

I think they can get two away wins in the run in....out of Everton, Leicester and Burnley. Burnley away is final day of the season so they'll be safe and on the beach by then. Everton may have improved in a few weeks but again not an opposition you'd be frightened of and Leicester are awful at home and I assume they'll have caretaker in charge for rest of the season so really they just want this season to end now although of course can be motivated against better teams.

Agree that they could lose all of Spurs, Watford and Wolves as all three will give their defence major difficulties.

 

[FootballHQ]

Why is everyone only talking about united v arsenal

Chelsea are there too and actually showed a bit of spirit yesterday at least

Hardest run in of the three by a mile.

 

[Red4Ever]

Hardest run in of the three by a mile.

Still there though. Our injury list evens it up

 

[Djemba-Djemba]

Why is everyone only talking about united v arsenal

Chelsea are there too and actually showed a bit of spirit yesterday at least

The way they played yesterday meant even with a defeat it felt like a pretty good day for them.

But then the whole shambles with Kepa happened so it turned out to be a pretty dreadful day.

 

[Red4Ever]

It remains to be seen of course but I wouldn't put it past these Chelsea players to temporarily put aside their feelings for the manager when there's something in it for them (i.e. a medal)

True

If they miss cl two years in a row with the amount of money spent its scandalous

 

[Red4Ever]

The way they played yesterday meant even with a defeat it felt like a pretty good day for them.

But then the whole shambles with Kepa happened so it turned out to be a pretty dreadful day.

Hope it further screws them

 

[charlenefan]

The way they played yesterday meant even with a defeat it felt like a pretty good day for them.

But then the whole shambles with Kepa happened so it turned out to be a pretty dreadful day.

On the contrary despite how well they played they still lost, that can be pretty dispiriting. Like Liverpool at OT yesterday depends on how they look at it