All of this is very nice but it doesn't change the fact that the numbers just don't add up without there being some artificial meddling involved. I don't think UEFA have to audit anyone to prove it as it's not a court of law. They just need to be satisfied that they were misled or that your finances as reported to them aren't accurate. THe fact is they would have done feck all even if they were aware of it, were it not for it being leaked publicly.
If you go to the Court of Arbitration (or whatever it's called) you might get a different outcome but I wouldn't know enough to say either way. It basically just comes down to whether UEFA have the balls to ban you in the first instance...and whether it opens a can of worms with other teams who appear to be getting let off for similar offences. You can bet more leaks will conveniently start appearing.
If I were Pep I just wouldn't comment on it one way or the other and that way can keep my hands clean whatever the outcome.
I kind of want them to punish you. My guess is it wouldn't stick as you'd threaten to take it to the courts, but it'd be enough for the Liverpool media (and cult element of their fanbase) to cry about how unfair it all is, which I would find funny.
Other than that it's a bit of a nothing. No one is under the illusion that City would be where they were if it wasn't for spending loads of money. I don't care that much about whether it's fair or not. It's not fair being Huddersfield and having no chance of ever being a big club due to being based in Huddersfield, but so what. Football is never going to be an even playing field in that sense.
Your first two paragraphs are basically the crux of the issue. City have released two statements this week that clearly lay out the official position: 1) City's accounts are "full and complete and a matter of legal and regulatory record"; 2) the "accusation of financial irregularities remains entirely false." UEFA's position, as leaked into the media this week, seems to be that our accounts say one thing, but they think the reality is different, and hence they've been misled. This is all speculation because nothing official has been released by UEFA, but it is going to be genuinely interesting to see how they will go about proving that they have been misled. To do so, logically, would require evidence that City's accounts (and by extension, Etihad's) are not accurate. That would be an absolute legal minefield, and as you say, it's unclear whether UEFA will be willing to do that.
Again, based on City's latest statement, City appear to assume that UEFA CFCB AC will determine that City are indeed guilty. If that happens, City have already signaled that they will appeal to CAS in the reference to "an independent judicial body." CAS will have to adjudicate whether UEFA has implemented its own rules and procedures properly. Note that CAS has already ruled against UEFA in prior FFP cases related to PSG and AC Milan where UEFA didn't follow its own procedures. It's worth noting that UEFA seems to have rushed this latest review to meet the 5-year statutory limit on offences (the CFCB IC ruling yesterday, was the 5-year anniversary of City's original punishment, so the last possible day for them to try to re-adjudicate the original decision). It wouldn't surprise me if they've messed up procedures again to try to meet that deadline.
I think Guardiola's comments were fine. The current issue relates to a time period before he joined the club so I think his only options are to just say "no comment" or "innocent until proven guilty" which is what he did do. The media will continue to ask him leading questions on it, but he's obviously not the right person to ask.
By the way, I don't doubt for a moment that City inflated the UAE-related sponsorships to try to meet FFP back in 2014. We really don't need to do this anymore, given all the various increases in TV, prize money, and non-UAE sponsorships since then. If I were City, I'd probably can the Etihad sponsorship at this point, it's more trouble than it's worth, and we could easily find a different non-UAE shirt sponsor.