Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

[John_Dooh]

No win in the TDF today, but Nadal 3-0 saved the day.
Tomorrow is for the yellow jersey favourites, the one with it after the race will very possibly win the Tour, as has been the case the previous three times la Planche des Belles Filles has been part of the race. But, this also mean that any climber not deemed dangerous in the aggregate can be allowed to go in a break, and win the stage. Aru has won here two years ago for example, and is 67/1, not the same form now though.
I have Bernal as an outright winner, so I will avoid him at current prices, but if you get him at 3.75 is there could be a little value. I see Yates still trades at 12 and above, that would be the best value for me, so I'll make a small bet on him instead. Might add a slight bet on Pinot @8.50 ish, expect the winner to be one of these, with Fuglesang and Woods outsiders.

I really like Woods vs Valverde @2.43 on Pinnacle, Valverde struggling for form, so I favour Woods, think he will be favourite in this duel when the race starts, as his teams situation should benefit him as well. Medium bet, this is my favourite pick for tomorrow.

In the WTA tomorrow, some woman will serve for the set, then crumble under pressure, rinse and repeat for all contestants left except Serena W. However, she might just be found out, if someone can consistently play the ball along the effing lines for about an hours time.
Edit; Svitolina - Halep u3.5 aces looks good to me, 1,9 at Betsson. Both strong on the return, not the serve. Others ae around 1,6-7 for the same bet.

 

[Danny Roberts]

I fancy England to beat the Aussies easily today. I might be getting carried away but we'll see.

 

[John_Dooh]

Edit; Svitolina - Halep u3.5 aces looks good to me, 1,9 at Betsson. Both strong on the return, not the serve. Others ae around 1,6-7 for the same bet.

2 aces in the game and a win. Gone with a small bet on Williams o7.5 aces in Wimbledon now, 2,04 at Marathonbet. Had 19 against Riske tuesday, who statistically is pretty equal to Strycova on the returns. Ciccione looks a very likely winner in the TDF today, placed a small bet live on Expekt @2.75 live.

Edit; only 4 aces for Williams, ended 6-1 / 6-2 so hardly got to serve

 

[Red Star One]

Pinnacle has Hamilton to win at Silverstone at 1.76. Not too bad for his home turf.

 

[John_Dooh]

I really like Woods vs Valverde @2.43 on Pinnacle, Valverde struggling for form, so I favour Woods, think he will be favourite in this duel when the race starts, as his teams situation should benefit him as well. Medium bet, this is my favourite pick for tomorrow.

Didn't get Teuns, the winner, but Valverde had to work for the team, Woods 1min ahead of him, so my main bet in. Tomorrow is for the sprinters again, I'll go with Groeneweg again, hopefully the odds(4-ish hopefully) will be based on previous results, and his team will ride for his chances tomorrow. Fed o12.5 aces vs Nadal @1.85 Marathonbet should also be good value, medium bets for me.

Edit; Groenewegen odds around 2.5 too low for me, Playing him against Viviani @1.91 on Pinnacle. He is the fastest in a flat finish like this, so if his team does a good job for him he should win. Nizzoli vs Kristoff @3.00 is really good also, almost 50/50 for me.

 

[BobbyManc]

Accrington Stanley currently 2-0 up against Marseille. Latter actually playing a strong side, likes of Payet, Gustavo, Sanson, Amavi all starting. Thauvin on the bench. Will see whether it's worth jumping on something like Marseille -1AH about ten minutes into the second half.

Edit - As I worried may happen, Marseille have subbed the whole side at HT so going to avoid this one.

 

[Bullhitter]

Two more selections for German darts Masters first round

James Wade most 180's vs Kevin Munch
Mensur Suljovic most 180's vs Maik Langendorf

matches are best of 11 legs

both are to me inexplicably 2.0

Wade is scoring better than he ever has and is as straight as they come (and probably switches less often than any top player). Suljovic is top 10 on the pro tour for 180's per leg this season (smaller sample than most as he skips a lot of weekends)

Wade is 1.05 to win the match and Suljovic 1.12. In other similarly one sided matches not featuring MVG (who switches just to amuse himself) the likes of Anderson, Wright and Gurney are between 1.5-1.66 to win the 180 count.

I think you'd go a long way to find a better 3/1 double.

 

[careca07]

Didn't get Teuns, the winner, but Valverde had to work for the team, Woods 1min ahead of him, so my main bet in. Tomorrow is for the sprinters again, I'll go with Groeneweg again, hopefully the odds(4-ish hopefully) will be based on previous results, and his team will ride for his chances tomorrow. Fed o12.5 aces vs Nadal @1.85 Marathonbet should also be good value, medium bets for me.

Edit; Groenewegen odds around 2.5 too low for me, Playing him against Viviani @1.91 on Pinnacle. He is the fastest in a flat finish like this, so if his team does a good job for him he should win. Nizzoli vs Kristoff @3.00 is really good also, almost 50/50 for me.

Great tips again thanks mate, followed you on Nizzoli for a nice pick up- should have gone with Groenewegen and the aces in the tennis too! Have followed Bullhitters tips in the darts tonight so fingers crossed

 

[Bullhitter]

Clemens beat Barneveld very comfortably as expected, that's 3 of my 4 biggest ever bets all opposing Barney in the last 8 months, bless his half hearted entitled ass

Wade won his 180's 1-0. Was good for 2 or even 3 most times I think. Had two twice and a deflected third dart and also had two and then a bounce out. To be fair Munch almost nicked one in the last leg (think it might have been his last scoring visit actually or maybe second last)

Suljovic lost the 180's 0-1. Really struggled with his scoring and first dart in particular which he likes in the bottom of the T20. He spent the first three legs landing above the treble and then the next three legs over adjusting and landing below it. Langendorf hit his when he should never have been going for it, his second dart was hanging in and he throws big bulbs but go for it he did and hit it. I'd do the same bet again, confident the price was wrong.

 

[Bullhitter]

I had typed out the other night and meant to post but i'm still on 5 posts per day and was out of them and was off to bed before they reset. I'll post it anyway as I had it and have a quick check on the prices now.


I'm in early for some World Matchplay Darts first round games. First round is over Saturday July 20th- Monday the 22nd.

Adrian Lewis @2.37 vs Glen Durrant - This is Durrant's debut and the event he has talked most about since switching to the PDC. He has a tendency to overwhelm himself on fresh big occasions, took him to his fourth year to win the BDO and has struggled to cross hurdles on the Euro tour this season. They've met three times already this year and Lewis has won 2/3.

Jeff de Zwaan @2.62 vs James Wade - de Zwaan made a run all the way to the semi finals in this event last year beating MVG, Lewis and Chisnall. the long format games suit his game because once he finds a rythm he can be unstoppable. This is close to a 50/50 game in my eyes so value on JDZ.

Jermaine Wattimena @3.3 vs Mensur Suljovic - Suljovic has not been on it this year, only one semi final so far in 2019 and for his ability that is poor. He doesn't like the venue or location and was very vocal about this last year (even though he made the final). Wattimena is one of the most improved in the last 18 months and is growing and growing in confidence and just shouldn't be this big a price. A factor in the price may be their H2H record, it's 5-0 Suljovic but only one of those inside the last 2 years and Wattimena is not the same player as back then (on the edge of the top 20 and a good case for best player without a PDC title)

Jamie Hughes @2.37 vs Michael Smith - This is the game of the first round for me. As close to a 50/50 as you can get but at odds against siding wth Hughes who won the recent Czech Open and is riding high on confidence. Smith on the other hand has serious doubts inside his own head about his doubles, he's not missing as many as he actually thinks he is but it is only taking one at a crucial moment and his head goes slightly.

Mervyn King @3.4 vs Nathan Aspinall - This is just too big of a price. King is almost always underrated. He's as reliable and solid as they come. Yes if Aspinall brings his A game he will win but King is awkward to play against in terms of rythm of matches and if Aspinall is slightly off King will pounce on most chances given. Some of Aspinall's poorer head to head records are against more methodical players.

Simon Whitlock @1.8 vs John Henderson - Henderson had a good start to the year but has tailed off recently, only going beyond the last 32 stage in a tournament once in his last 8 played. Henderson has only won one game in Blackpool and notoriously struggles in heat which is usually a factor here and for stamina in long matches (first to 10 first round) Whitlock is playing well and has made a final, a semi and a quarter on the Euro Tour all in the last three months and plays well in heat (naturally being an Aussie)

I think only the King price is gone, in to 3.2 and still backable at that in my opinion.

I have a 1x stake on the first five selections and a 3x stake on Whitlock. Also for shits and giggles a 0.5 stake on the 6 fold acca.

 

[Mrs Smoker]

Perth @ 12.5

 

[RedPed]

United 5-0 @15.00

 

[Havak]

Tempted to go Man Utd -3 @7.0 if there's no score soon, looks like it could be quite a strong second half side from United (Pogba, Rashford, Mata to come on) and Perth have a lack of numbers.

Edit: Opted against it as Paddy kept lowering the max stake when the odds increased, so much so that greater odds resulted in winning less.

If I take this for the second half it will be -2 @5.5. Perth are defending deep and will surely tire against a fully new XI in the second half. If United unlock the door early enough the goals should start flowing. Perth haven't managed a single attempt, so I doubt they will score when we have a more first XI looking defence in place with de Gea, Wan-Bissaka, Smalling and Shaw coming on.

 

[John_Dooh]

Great analyzis on the darts @Bullhitter, gonna back you on these! And thanks for the tip on Clemens

Great tips again thanks mate, followed you on Nizzoli for a nice pick up- should have gone with Groenewegen and the aces in the tennis too! Have followed Bullhitters tips in the darts tonight so fingers crossed

No worries! Aces was a bit exciting for a bit, but all bets good in the end and great day.

I'm only betting live, if any in the TDF today, will try and put the tips in here so anyone who pleases can follow, but doubt they'll be here in time.

I had typed out the other night and meant to post but i'm still on 5 posts per day and was out of them and was off to bed before they reset. I'll post it anyway as I had it and have a quick check on the prices now.

How do you get to 5? I'm still on 3, bit of a pain in the butt, especially the pre-approval thing. Bit shlt to write a long post with a tip that is out after the event!

I'm on o8.5 aces @2.04 in the WTA Wimbledon final, great price methinks(Marathon)!

Serena hardly got to serve vs Strycova, but still got 4, 19 the match before. Halep got get a couple more than expected to, as I suspect Serena will preserve as much energy as possible, and leave some difficult ones alone.

 

[One Night Only]

@John_Dooh can you guys not edit posts to add more content? Thus sorta circumventing the 5 post rule?

Or @Damien sort it out, this dude is helping us all get rich.

 

[John_Dooh]

@John_Dooh can you guys not edit posts to add more content? Thus sorta circumventing the 5 post rule?

Or @Damien sort it out, this dude is helping us all get rich.

Haha! Yeah i've done that quite a bit, but don't know if people see it then, and don't wanna tempt my faith with the mods if as I don't know the rules regarding it....

Very annoyed with myself for not playing 2-0 Halep @5.00, Serena got hammered against first decent opposition, as I've been waiting for all the tournament. Anyway, aces bet out Serena only 2 aces, couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo today.

Looks like the break that have seemed doomed all day might actually make it, unless the main field get going soon. I just put a small punt on Matthews @15/1. Don't expect him to win, just for the entertainment, and if they decide to catch the break the finish should suit him.

Also a small bet on an accumulator in norwegian 3. division group 2. Vålerenga 2 - Norild o4.5 and Follo vs Ready. 4.66 on Marathon.

Edit; Matthews won the finish in the main field, but finished 4th 26 secs behind, as they didn't catch De Gendt from the break group, and Alaphilippe/Pinot managed to get away to finish 3rd/2nd 20secs ahead.

 

[Bullhitter]

Great analyzis on the darts @Bullhitter, gonna back you on these! And thanks for the tip on Clemens

Cheers and good luck us then! Clemens actually made it all the way to the final. Sadly I wasn't able to watch live so had to record it and just finished. I didn't expect him to beat Rob Cross but if I had been watching live I would have backed him against Suljovic for sure if he was around the price I think he would have been (2.4-2.6 possibly)

How do you get to 5? I'm still on 3, bit of a pain in the butt, especially the pre-approval thing. Bit shlt to write a long post with a tip that is out after the event!

The only way is to get posts "liked" as far as I can tell. I'm not sure if it's only moderators that can like posts or if all full members can do it. If full members can like posts then the regulars in here should already have you at unlimited considering how much you regularly contribute good content to this thread.


-----------------------

I was still without posts but had a good day of it with the darts

1x Wade to beat Gurney @1.9
0.5x Wade most 180's against Gurney @3.2
1x Peter Wright to win the event @3.75 (means I am still on for what i'm going to call the World Series Slam haha as I had a 1x loser on Gerwyn Price to win in Vegas but had 0.5x e/w on Aspinall @19)

 

[John_Dooh]

Cheer @Bullhitter!

Hard day to pick a winner again today, another stage for the breaks likely, so keep the stakes small. I've gone with Mohori(30/1), Matthews(9,5/1) and Nibali(150/1) at BS/Expekt.

Probably a small bet on 3-1 Djoko in the Wimbledon final, maybe a bet on Fed most aces depending on if i can find north of 1.50...
Vålererenga 5-0 so only missing Follo last nights bet, odds down from 2.6 to 1.8 so no value anymore but bet looking good pre-match, as it always does!

 

[Jagga7]

The off season is getting pretty boring now. I'm increasingly betting random football games.

 

[Flanders Devil]

Is anyone betting on the cricket WC final?

I reckon live betting on this will be a good strategy. The ball is moving all over the place. I can see NZ getting into a bit of trouble and recovering to a defendable total; then their pace bowlers causing some trouble. Bit like the Semi really v India. Unlike India England can bat deep, so could pull it off even after loosing top order wickets.

So I think there will be times where both teams get above 3.0.

I did similar with Nz in the semis. Backed them at 4.5; then did a very small lay off when India were 10-1.

Edit: NZ 1-68. @3.0
Spinners on now too. Next 15-20 overs they milk it, if they don’t loose wickets they are in a decent position

 

[Jagga7]

I have bet on CSKA Moscow to beat Samara @1.85. Samara were a struggling team last year and the odds on CSKA seems too high.

I also bet Gombos to beat Schnur in the final of the mens Challenger Winnipeg @1.8

 

[Red Star One]

Pinnacle has Hamilton to win at Silverstone at 1.76. Not too bad for his home turf.

Never really in doubt. F1 this season goes well for me

 

[John_Dooh]

Also a small bet on an accumulator in norwegian 3. division group 2. Vålerenga 2 - Norild o4.5 and Follo vs Ready. 4.66 on Marathon.

Nice little bet right in with 5-0 / 2-1, always nice to have the margins with you!

Hard day to pick a winner again today, another stage for the breaks likely, so keep the stakes small. I've gone with Mohori(30/1), Matthews(9,5/1) and Nibali(150/1) at BS/Expekt.

Probably a small bet on 3-1 Djoko in the Wimbledon final, maybe a bet on Fed most aces depending on if i can find north of 1.50...

What a game, almost in tears in the end! Was rooting for Fed, but at least he won most aces 26-10, I'm sure he is very happy with that! Should have bet the line -3.5 instead, but a win is a win.

The Tour was very hard to predict today, as predicted! Impey was never in my sights though. Tomorrow is for the sprinters or the attackers again, will try to find some value somewhere and post...

 

[John_Dooh]

Going with Groenewegen @3.25, as said he is the fastest, but I'll split my stake with Groenewegen vs Viviani @1.88(Expekt), in case a break goes in.

Also a couple small bets:
Trentin vs Stuyven @1.72 (Expekt) - Good value, Stuyven in a long break today, so shouldn't have the best legs tomorrow.
Nizzoli top 3 @11.00 (Leovegas) - Should be around 7.50-8.0.

Like Stabæk vs an injury ridden Sarpsborg in norwegian top divison tomorrow @3.17. Sarpsborg yet to win away, Stabæk have improved with their managerial change. Probably a low scoring game as well.

 

[Bullhitter]

Well done on the Norwegian double @John_Dooh and yes the tennis was incredible but I only joined for the fifth set like a true casual haha.

(save those posts) (thread needs a protest hashtag #free@John_Dooh )

 

[Danny Roberts]

Is anyone betting on the cricket WC final?

I reckon live betting on this will be a good strategy. The ball is moving all over the place. I can see NZ getting into a bit of trouble and recovering to a defendable total; then their pace bowlers causing some trouble. Bit like the Semi really v India. Unlike India England can bat deep, so could pull it off even after loosing top order wickets.

So I think there will be times where both teams get above 3.0.

I did similar with Nz in the semis. Backed them at 4.5; then did a very small lay off when India were 10-1.

Edit: NZ 1-68. @3.0
Spinners on now too. Next 15-20 overs they milk it, if they don’t loose wickets they are in a decent position

I followed a similar strategy and made some nice money on the run lines. Did an emotional hedge using most of the profit I had accumulated to back NZ at 2.2 towards the end. Sort of forgot about that in the excitement then realised this morning it would be voided so a double win really!

 

[Samid]

Stabæk @ 3.2 look value this evening. Really struggling to see why Sarpsborg are favourites. They barely have fit defenders, their GK looking to leave the club, their best midfielder is suspended, their top scorer is away playing the U19 Euros. Stabæk not exactly free flowing themselves but they are at full strength and have looked good since changing manager.

 

[John_Dooh]

Stabæk @ 3.2 look value this evening. Really struggling to see why Sarpsborg are favourites. They barely have fit defenders, their GK looking to leave the club, their best midfielder is suspended, their top scorer is away playing the U19 Euros. Stabæk not exactly free flowing themselves but they are at full strength and have looked good since changing manager.

100% agree, said the same yesterday @3.07, don't know why(?) the odds is up from then, 3.35 now on Coolbet so I just bet it.

Added a bet on Matthews @30/1 on todays stage in TDF. Hasn't impressed, but this stage suits him, and should be highly motivated.

 

[Flanders Devil]

I followed a similar strategy and made some nice money on the run lines. Did an emotional hedge using most of the profit I had accumulated to back NZ at 2.2 towards the end. Sort of forgot about that in the excitement then realised this morning it would be voided so a double win really!

Yep - what a game. I don’t think I’ve seen anything like it in terms of sheer ridiculousness of events happening. And now to read that the ‘6 over throws’ should’ve only been 5!

I really do feel sorry for the Kiwis.

Anyway. Ended up having England at 3.2 and NZ at 3.0 - can’t complain from a betting pov.

And what a night in sport it was last night with Wimbledon and F1 as well.

 

[Flanders Devil]

100% agree, said the same yesterday @3.07, don't know why(?) the odds is up from then, 3.35 now on Coolbet so I just bet it.

Added a bet on Matthews @30/1 on todays stage in TDF. Hasn't impressed, but this stage suits him, and should be highly motivated.

I know nothing about the Norwegian league - but you guys make good arguments so I’m on!

Also @John_Dooh keep up the posts mate - I’ve followed you a few times! Also for those following your TDF tips - do you mind putting what stage your talking about? Sometimes I can’t tell if it’s the stage before or upcoming due to time zones (first world problem I know)

 

[John_Dooh]

I know nothing about the Norwegian league - but you guys make good arguments so I’m on!

Also @John_Dooh keep up the posts mate - I’ve followed you a few times! Also for those following your TDF tips - do you mind putting what stage your talking about? Sometimes I can’t tell if it’s the stage before or upcoming due to time zones (first world problem I know)

Sure thing bud, will try to remember that! Fingers crossed for Stabæk then!

 

[Big Andy]

Fingers crossed for Stabæk then!

Absolute standard

 

[Samid]

Absolute standard

Concede an offside goal in the first minute. This thread is cursed

 

[Berbaclass]

I had a small punt on Stabaek too. Just seen that they got one back and missed a penalty before HT FFS

 

[John_Dooh]

The lord giveth and the lord taketh away! Stabæk should have been cruising, one of those days.
Strong sidewind in the tdf today made what should have been a boring stage the most dramatic so far. Peloton kept breaking up, and when it did for good with 50km left Groeneweg and Nizzali was on the wrong side of it along with several of the overall favourites and the maillot jaune. Trentin won vs Stuyven, Matthews only 4th.

Rest day tomorrow, stage 11 on wednesday is a flat easy stage for the sprinters. I'm going with Groeneweg again, 2.87 on Bet365, but half my stake on him VS Viviani @1.91(Pinnacle), in case of a break etc. Small punt on Nizzoli t3 again @13/1.

 

[Danny Roberts]

I had a small punt on Stabaek too. Just seen that they got one back and missed a penalty before HT FFS

Yup, unbelievable. Seems every tip I pick at random from here goes down so it must be me jinxing them!

 

[Danny Roberts]

Yep - what a game. I don’t think I’ve seen anything like it in terms of sheer ridiculousness of events happening. And now to read that the ‘6 over throws’ should’ve only been 5!

I really do feel sorry for the Kiwis.

Anyway. Ended up having England at 3.2 and NZ at 3.0 - can’t complain from a betting pov.

And what a night in sport it was last night with Wimbledon and F1 as well.

Yeah, they probably "deserved" to win but that's sport (and life). There were just so many tiny moments in the game that could have gone differently.

Kane Williamson's responses and the rest of the Kiwis' really, were amazing. If I had a daughter she could probably marry him.

 

[Big Andy]

Yup, unbelievable. Seems every tip I pick at random from here goes down so it must be me jinxing them!

Nope. it's me as well...

 

[Danny Roberts]

Nope. it's me as well...

 

[Berbaclass]

CL/EL Qualifiers

Sabutalo/Sheriff Over 2.5 @ 2.0
Klasvik/Riteriai Over 2.5 @ 2.05