Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

[John_Dooh]

Årvoll vs Sarpsborg 08 reserves @5.50 Norw. 3rd div
Di Guiseppi vs Lepchenko @2,13 WTA Bucharest

Edit; Hedged my Guiseppi bet @5.1
Årvoll 0-5, would have bet it again with those lineups though.

Edit II: Di G close to throwing it away, but saved TB and won 7-3.

 

[RedDevilRoshi]

£5 Acca returns £30.47

Greenock Morton 1/2
Dunfermline 2/9
AIK 1/4
Wolves 19/20
Dinamo Minsk 4/11

 

[RedPed]

1. PSG, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Leicester City, FC Porto, Braga, CSKA Sofia @5.94
2. Exeter, Portsmouth, Gillingham, Swansea, Sheff Utd, Morton, Queen of South, Olympiakos or draw, Bradford, Chesterfield @18.89
3. La Equidad, River Plate, Coritiba, Uni Catolica, LDU Quito, Curico Unido or draw @6.36
4. Partick, Falkirk, Ross County, Charlton, Peterborough or draw, Boreham Wood/QPR >2.5, Leicester City, PSG @7.41

 

[John_Dooh]

Rest day tomorrow, stage 11 on wednesday is a flat easy stage for the sprinters. I'm going with Groeneweg again, 2.87 on Bet365, but half my stake on him VS Viviani @1.91(Pinnacle), in case of a break etc. Small punt on Nizzoli t3 again @13/1.

No margins today either; Groeneweg lost by 2 cm to Ewan after J-V seemingly being in full control but dropped him 50m to early, and Nizzoli reportedly was in an accident and fell. At least Groeneweg beat Viviani so not far from a push, all in all.

 

[Bullhitter]

I had typed out the other night and meant to post but i'm still on 5 posts per day and was out of them and was off to bed before they reset. I'll post it anyway as I had it and have a quick check on the prices now.


I'm in early for some World Matchplay Darts first round games. First round is over Saturday July 20th- Monday the 22nd.

Adrian Lewis @2.37 vs Glen Durrant - This is Durrant's debut and the event he has talked most about since switching to the PDC. He has a tendency to overwhelm himself on fresh big occasions, took him to his fourth year to win the BDO and has struggled to cross hurdles on the Euro tour this season. They've met three times already this year and Lewis has won 2/3.

Jeff de Zwaan @2.62 vs James Wade - de Zwaan made a run all the way to the semi finals in this event last year beating MVG, Lewis and Chisnall. the long format games suit his game because once he finds a rythm he can be unstoppable. This is close to a 50/50 game in my eyes so value on JDZ.

Jermaine Wattimena @3.3 vs Mensur Suljovic - Suljovic has not been on it this year, only one semi final so far in 2019 and for his ability that is poor. He doesn't like the venue or location and was very vocal about this last year (even though he made the final). Wattimena is one of the most improved in the last 18 months and is growing and growing in confidence and just shouldn't be this big a price. A factor in the price may be their H2H record, it's 5-0 Suljovic but only one of those inside the last 2 years and Wattimena is not the same player as back then (on the edge of the top 20 and a good case for best player without a PDC title)

Jamie Hughes @2.37 vs Michael Smith - This is the game of the first round for me. As close to a 50/50 as you can get but at odds against siding wth Hughes who won the recent Czech Open and is riding high on confidence. Smith on the other hand has serious doubts inside his own head about his doubles, he's not missing as many as he actually thinks he is but it is only taking one at a crucial moment and his head goes slightly.

Mervyn King @3.4 vs Nathan Aspinall - This is just too big of a price. King is almost always underrated. He's as reliable and solid as they come. Yes if Aspinall brings his A game he will win but King is awkward to play against in terms of rythm of matches and if Aspinall is slightly off King will pounce on most chances given. Some of Aspinall's poorer head to head records are against more methodical players.

Simon Whitlock @1.8 vs John Henderson - Henderson had a good start to the year but has tailed off recently, only going beyond the last 32 stage in a tournament once in his last 8 played. Henderson has only won one game in Blackpool and notoriously struggles in heat which is usually a factor here and for stamina in long matches (first to 10 first round) Whitlock is playing well and has made a final, a semi and a quarter on the Euro Tour all in the last three months and plays well in heat (naturally being an Aussie)

I think only the King price is gone, in to 3.2 and still backable at that in my opinion.

I have a 1x stake on the first five selections and a 3x stake on Whitlock. Also for shits and giggles a 0.5 stake on the 6 fold acca.

I've halved my stake on Whitlock to a 1.5x He lost first round both yesterday and today in the floor tournaments, he has been playing well on the stage anyway while being poor on the floor but not ideal preparation so no need to push it.

--------

Couple of outrights

2.5x Michael van Gerwen winning event @2.63 - almost an unmissable price. I think he wins around 70% of the time over such long format games. This price is an over reaction to sub standard performances in events that he frankly doesn't care about and was clearly not focused (5-1 up against Schindler and losing 6-5)

2x Peter Wright to win the 4th quarter @2.75 - 3 games to win and has won 3 tournaments in the last 5 days, looks fantastic.

1x Over 2.5 tournament 170 finishes @2.0 - 31 matches to be played over long formats, a fun bet in a way but I do think we get 3+ more than half the time

Game on!

 

[John_Dooh]

TDF stage 12;

Teuns vs Benoot @1.85 (Betsson) - Got this idea from a guy in a forum I follow, but think he is spot on. Benoot went down today and bruised himself up, should have a very quiet day tomorrow.

Small bets on winner, should be a good day for a break to make it tomorrow, so staying away from the ones doing to well in the overall, as they will not be allowed to break;
De Gendt @21
Barguil @26
Wellens @41
All Marathonbet

Woods and Nibali are good candidates too, but I already bet Nibali to win any stage. Woods was down to 13/1 now and think it's a bit short, but placed a small hedge on him so I get my other stakes back if he wins.

Edit: Yates live @4.00 3 km left

Edit II: YATES!! - Bless you TV2 commentators!

 

[Danny Roberts]

I've halved my stake on Whitlock to a 1.5x He lost first round both yesterday and today in the floor tournaments, he has been playing well on the stage anyway while being poor on the floor but not ideal preparation so no need to push it.

--------

Couple of outrights

2.5x Michael van Gerwen winning event @2.63 - almost an unmissable price. I think he wins around 70% of the time over such long format games. This price is an over reaction to sub standard performances in events that he frankly doesn't care about and was clearly not focused (5-1 up against Schindler and losing 6-5)

2x Peter Wright to win the 4th quarter @2.75 - 3 games to win and has won 3 tournaments in the last 5 days, looks fantastic.

1x Over 2.5 tournament 170 finishes @2.0 - 31 matches to be played over long formats, a fun bet in a way but I do think we get 3+ more than half the time

Game on!

MVG has, for him, a shocking record in this tournament/format too though.

 

[Bullhitter]

MVG has, for him, a shocking record in this tournament/format too though.

I have to disagree. The other tournament with the format most similar to this (once past the group stage) is the Grand Slam.

In the last four years, so 4 x Matchplay and 4 x Grand slam, he has won 5 of 8 titles with 2 of his 3 defeats being to Anderson and Taylor.

 

[Danny Roberts]

I have to disagree. The other tournament with the format most similar to this (once past the group stage) is the Grand Slam.

In the last four years, so 4 x Matchplay and 4 x Grand slam, he has won 5 of 8 titles with 2 of his 3 defeats being to Anderson and Taylor.

Fair dos, I haven't looked into it all that much but he's only won this twice in his career.

 

[madRedDevil07]

Lancashire @ 1.6 in T20 blast is a great bet.
I might add Durham @1.72 for a double today.

 

[John_Dooh]

No good on the pre-race bets yesterday, but got Yates live who for some weird reason were 4/1 and the other two just above 2/1. On the stages made for breaks I don't think there is value in betting the favourites pre-race, better to see the development.

On Geraint Thomas to win today @3,80. Tempo stages are easier to predict, should be between him and Van Aert, but no value in 1.75ish on him, and perhaps we should expect some kind of backlash for him after his insane development the last 6 months.

Edit; Thomas 1st looser

 

[Jean claude van hire]

Lancashire @ 1.6 in T20 blast is a great bet.
I might add Durham @1.72 for a double today.

Lancashire was rained off but I got Durham at 4-5, thanks for the tip mate.

 

[John_Dooh]

Lancashire was rained off but I got Durham at 4-5, thanks for the tip mate.

Seconded!

Big day in the TDF today, very tough stage, one for the overall favorites and/or climbers. Going with Pinot @6.50(Leovegas) and Fuglsang/Quintana top 3 @7,00/5,50(Expekt). Small stakes, might put in a live bet or two. Break going in unlikely methinks, as the teams/riders aspiring for the yellow jersey should be offensive today, as Alaphilippe is in the form of his life, and has a big lead. Anyway, breaks should give opportunities for livebets, as odds change quite a bit.

Edit; Added a bit extra on Pinot @4.25 +25% profit boost, down to 3.75 now, but could go up again if others break first....
I see Alaphilippe is 17/1 on Betsson group, could be worth a small punt with the insane form he has shown.

Edit II; managed to get in a livebet on Fuglsang vs Quintana @1.98, Quintana sitting on the tail, and now accepted a can of coke from a spectator just after I bet. Should be him finished, h2h suspended seconds later...

Edit III; Alaphilippe looks to be struggling a bit more, but if he miraculously is still there with less than a kilometre to go he should win.

Edit IV; PINOT!!!!! Alaphilippe and Kruijswijk 2nd/3rd. Fuglsang 10th I believe, Quintana lost 3 minutes up the last stretch so H2H never exciting

 

[madRedDevil07]

Lancashire was rained off but I got Durham at 4-5, thanks for the tip mate.

No worries.
Today Birmingham Bears @ 1.6 is a good bet.

 

[John_Dooh]

TDF stage 15 Live:
Small bet on Geraint Thomas top 3 @ 7.00(Expekt)
Struggling yesterday, but could have been just a bad day. Still finished 8th only 36s behind, on top form pretty much the strongest rider.

Alaphilippe to loose the Yellow jersey @5.30(Marathon pre match) - Overachieved so far, value is on him loosing it.
Pinot win @8 - Pre match(Leovegas/Unibet)

 

[luke511]

TDF stage 15 Live:
Small bet on Geraint Thomas top 3 @ 7.00(Expekt)
Struggling yesterday, but could have been just a bad day. Still finished 8th only 36s behind, on top form pretty much the strongest rider.

Alaphilippe to loose the Yellow jersey @5.30(Marathon pre match) - Overachieved so far, value is on him loosing it.
Pinot win @8 - Pre match(Leovegas/Unibet)

Got my eye on Djerv today vs Os in Norway 3rd div, managed to get evens this morning but there's just been a bit of a move, might still be able to get 1.9 sw if you fish around. Os have lost 9 of the last 10 games at home and Djerv have been doing really well. They go 1st if they win as well so there's motive.

 

[Flanders Devil]

Seconded!

Big day in the TDF today, very tough stage, one for the overall favorites and/or climbers. Going with Pinot @6.50(Leovegas) and Fuglsang/Quintana top 3 @7,00/5,50(Expekt). Small stakes, might put in a live bet or two. Break going in unlikely methinks, as the teams/riders aspiring for the yellow jersey should be offensive today, as Alaphilippe is in the form of his life, and has a big lead. Anyway, breaks should give opportunities for livebets, as odds change quite a bit.

Edit; Added a bit extra on Pinot @4.25 +25% profit boost, down to 3.75 now, but could go up again if others break first....
I see Alaphilippe is 17/1 on Betsson group, could be worth a small punt with the insane form he has shown.

Edit II; managed to get in a livebet on Fuglsang vs Quintana @1.98, Quintana sitting on the tail, and now accepted a can of coke from a spectator just after I bet. Should be him finished, h2h suspended seconds later...

Edit III; Alaphilippe looks to be struggling a bit more, but if he miraculously is still there with less than a kilometre to go he should win.

Edit IV; PINOT!!!!! Alaphilippe and Kruijswijk 2nd/3rd. Fuglsang 10th I believe, Quintana lost 3 minutes up the last stretch so H2H never exciting

Great tips as always - well done on Pinot!

 

[John_Dooh]

Got my eye on Djerv today vs Os in Norway 3rd div, managed to get evens this morning but there's just been a bit of a move, might still be able to get 1.9 sw if you fish around. Os have lost 9 of the last 10 games at home and Djerv have been doing really well. They go 1st if they win as well so there's motive.

Agreed, I am already on them @2.04, albeit in a double with Asker @1.66 ;-)

Cheers @Flanders Devil!

Doesn't look good for todays bets, hopefully Thomas can snatch a T3 finish....

Edit; Just as I wrote that Thomas looks f.....

EditII: Yates wins ahead of Pinot, never got close though. Thomas said he had good legs, but couldn't go until 2 km left as he had Alaphilippe with him, finished 7th. Alaphilippe still in yellow, even if he lost a bit of his lead and showed weakness for the first time.

 

[Spiersey]

On Torino -1.5 v Debrecen on Thursday in the Europa League. Think it'll get backed to a -2.25/-2.5 asian or something. It's a big gulf, think 3/4-0 ft.

 

[Spiersey]

On Aldershot win v Portsmouth tomorrow as well. odds dropped loads already from 3/1 to 4/5 but it's still a bet. Pompey sending u18s and u23s. Similar happened with Kidderminster today and they lost 4-0 to Stourbridge. Been a couple of similar circumstances this week and all ended in big wins for the lower tier side. Can't give a score estimate without having Pompey lineup, but if it's closer to u18s then I'd guess at 5-0 or something and it being very one sided. Obviously won't be like this if it is more u23s but they should still win really. Stour moved from 8/5 to 1/7 at kickoff today.

 

[John_Dooh]

Cheers @Spiersey, with you on both the above!

Another one for the sprinters in the tdf tomorrow, unless anything comes up in the interviews tomorrow I'm backing Groeneweg again if I can get him @3ish.
Ostapenko at home in Latvia tomorrow vs Pera in the WTA available @2.02 now, I'll have some of that too. Big gulf in ability, anything close to top level should see easy Osta win. 2-0 at 3.13 for the more adventurous....

 

[Spiersey]

On Aldershot win v Portsmouth tomorrow as well. odds dropped loads already from 3/1 to 4/5 but it's still a bet. Pompey sending u18s and u23s. Similar happened with Kidderminster today and they lost 4-0 to Stourbridge. Been a couple of similar circumstances this week and all ended in big wins for the lower tier side. Can't give a score estimate without having Pompey lineup, but if it's closer to u18s then I'd guess at 5-0 or something and it being very one sided. Obviously won't be like this if it is more u23s but they should still win really. Stour moved from 8/5 to 1/7 at kickoff today.

Looking into it more, I'm pretty sure it is all u18s bar 3 players who are 18,18 and 21. I'm big on but it's guessy so can't advise a huge stake.

 

[luke511]

Looking into it more, I'm pretty sure it is all u18s bar 3 players who are 18,18 and 21. I'm big on but it's guessy so can't advise a huge stake.

Nice one, on -1,-2,-3 euro

 

[John_Dooh]

I am going with FC Copenhagen -2 away to TNS @2.42, medium stake.
The welsh side is always around for the ECL qualifiers, and have struggled against a lot weaker sides than FCK. Reportedly somewhat lucky to beat Feronikeli from Kosovo last round. Last year they lost twice by two goals to FC Midtjylland, who is quite a bit weaker than FCK. The danish have already started their season as well, FCK with two wins in two, and the side is expected to be stronger than last year, from what I can find.

Edit; Groenewegen 2,91(Pinnacle) to win tdf stage 16, still the fastest with probably the best support from team even without Van Aert. Was considering betting Groene/Sagan/Ewan against Viviani today, he and teammates did an impressive job over the mountains for Alaphilippe that should cost, but a days rest yesterday so opted out. Also extremely hot today so that could lessen the chance of breaks going, as it will be torture to sit in a break all day....

 

[Danny Roberts]

Anyone know anything about Saburtalo v Dinamo Zagreb? I'm gonna go to the game - tickets are 28p so would seem rude not to. May as well have a punt! Guess I could just back the hosts. Long shot but you never know!

 

[Spiersey]

Anyone know anything about Saburtalo v Dinamo Zagreb? I'm gonna go to the game - tickets are 28p so would seem rude not to. May as well have a punt! Guess I could just back the hosts. Long shot but you never know!

Waiting for in play. Saburtalo pretty fortunate to go through, complete freak winning 3-0 away at Sheriff. Think they'd have went out if Sheriff didn't get a red with 20 left in the second leg, was going to go 4-1 otherwise. Zagreb a lot better than Sheriff. Favour -1.5 but will wait for in play to see how they set up. Not a fan of needing 2 goal away win in the first leg.

 

[Danny Roberts]

Cheers, suspect I’ll give it a miss from a betting POV. Though maybe a few quid given 13.5 and will keep me with the home side.

Waiting for in play. Saburtalo pretty fortunate to go through, complete freak winning 3-0 away at Sheriff. Think they'd have went out if Sheriff didn't get a red with 20 left in the second leg, was going to go 4-1 otherwise. Zagreb a lot better than Sheriff. Favour -1.5 but will wait for in play to see how they set up. Not a fan of needing 2 goal away win in the first leg.

 

[Spiersey]

On Aldershot win v Portsmouth tomorrow as well. odds dropped loads already from 3/1 to 4/5 but it's still a bet. Pompey sending u18s and u23s. Similar happened with Kidderminster today and they lost 4-0 to Stourbridge. Been a couple of similar circumstances this week and all ended in big wins for the lower tier side. Can't give a score estimate without having Pompey lineup, but if it's closer to u18s then I'd guess at 5-0 or something and it being very one sided. Obviously won't be like this if it is more u23s but they should still win really. Stour moved from 8/5 to 1/7 at kickoff today.

Portsmouth all u18s basically. Aldershot hit 1/12 a minute ago, prices bouncing about though

 

[Spiersey]

Cheers, suspect I’ll give it a miss from a betting POV. Though maybe a few quid given 13.5 and will keep me with the home side.

Zagreb played awful, 13s been great for win.

 

[luke511]

Portsmouth all u18s basically. Aldershot hit 1/12 a minute ago, prices bouncing about though

Incredible ending haha, nice one!

 

[Spiersey]

Incredible ending haha, nice one!

Nice collapse. Happens loads in these games when it’s youngsters, they must just be completely dead on their feet. Was on -3 at big prices so a fun ending.

 

[Spiersey]

Had some on Sheffield FC +0.5 tomorrow. Paid for Chesterfield managers interview and he said it'll be all kids + trialists tomorrow. First team played today and none of the players from tonight will be involved as they're focussing on prep for the weekend game. Isn't near as good as Aldershot on paper but I'd have Sheffield favourites I think before lineups. Can assess fair price once Chesterfield release their lineup but expecting them to be really young, probably most u20.

 

[Danny Roberts]

Zagreb played awful, 13s been great for win.

Got 15 in the end. Saburtalo looked decent but missed their chances and didn’t quite have the end product. DZ grew into it but were a little lucky. Could have layed it off at HT but only had a few quid on so no point.

 

[John_Dooh]

Thanks for the tips @Spiersey, running out of superlatives here!

Poor day for my bets yesterday. Ostapenko horrible, good thing learned from that is that she might be a moneymaker to bet against in the future; Hotheaded and unable to adjust her game to scoreline. FC Copenhagen just a push, and in the TDF Groenewegens team effed up the delivery again. He was sitting 2nd with a kilometre left, so just had to wait for the other sprinters to come, then go out behind them and try to go round, starting at lower speed. Still had the fastest finish, finishing 3rd. Hopefully the odds on him will be higher and his team can adjust for the next one in Paris.

Todays stage 17 is one for the breaks, to hard for the sprinters, and not hard enough for the overall/climbers. Bit of a lottery to guess who will in the one break that goes. I've picked 3 strong punts in Mohoric(26/1), Cort Nielsen(30/1) and Lutsenko(26/1), all on Bet365. Bigger bets will wait until it is clear who is sitting in THE break. Last 8 km is downhill, so the proper maniacs can gain up to 30 secs on others....

 

[madRedDevil07]

Big money on below bet :
Cricket - Ireland to score < 182 runs in first innings @ 1.9 . England just got bowled out for 85 on the same pitch.

 

[One Night Only]

Big money on below bet :
Cricket - Ireland to score < 182 runs in first innings @ 1.9 . England just got bowled out for 85 on the same pitch.

Not looking great, England are useless.

 

[Spiersey]

Got 15 in the end. Saburtalo looked decent but missed their chances and didn’t quite have the end product. DZ grew into it but were a little lucky. Could have layed it off at HT but only had a few quid on so no point.

2 goal win was really harsh.
You in Tbilsi for Thursday? My team Aberdeen are playing, should head to that if you're looking for something to do. Was going to come across for it but flights were terrible.

 

[relx]

Gone for over 1.5 goals at half-time for Ferencvaros v Valletta, purely based on stats of the home team last season in their league. Seems like they are capable of scoring early and also getting that second goal before half-time. Unlikely to end 0-0 at HT so it's worth a punt I guess. Same goes for Red Star v HJK

 

[Bullhitter]

I had typed out the other night and meant to post but i'm still on 5 posts per day and was out of them and was off to bed before they reset. I'll post it anyway as I had it and have a quick check on the prices now.


I'm in early for some World Matchplay Darts first round games. First round is over Saturday July 20th- Monday the 22nd.

Adrian Lewis @2.37 vs Glen Durrant - This is Durrant's debut and the event he has talked most about since switching to the PDC. He has a tendency to overwhelm himself on fresh big occasions, took him to his fourth year to win the BDO and has struggled to cross hurdles on the Euro tour this season. They've met three times already this year and Lewis has won 2/3.

Jeff de Zwaan @2.62 vs James Wade - de Zwaan made a run all the way to the semi finals in this event last year beating MVG, Lewis and Chisnall. the long format games suit his game because once he finds a rythm he can be unstoppable. This is close to a 50/50 game in my eyes so value on JDZ.

Jermaine Wattimena @3.3 vs Mensur Suljovic - Suljovic has not been on it this year, only one semi final so far in 2019 and for his ability that is poor. He doesn't like the venue or location and was very vocal about this last year (even though he made the final). Wattimena is one of the most improved in the last 18 months and is growing and growing in confidence and just shouldn't be this big a price. A factor in the price may be their H2H record, it's 5-0 Suljovic but only one of those inside the last 2 years and Wattimena is not the same player as back then (on the edge of the top 20 and a good case for best player without a PDC title)

Jamie Hughes @2.37 vs Michael Smith - This is the game of the first round for me. As close to a 50/50 as you can get but at odds against siding wth Hughes who won the recent Czech Open and is riding high on confidence. Smith on the other hand has serious doubts inside his own head about his doubles, he's not missing as many as he actually thinks he is but it is only taking one at a crucial moment and his head goes slightly.

Mervyn King @3.4 vs Nathan Aspinall - This is just too big of a price. King is almost always underrated. He's as reliable and solid as they come. Yes if Aspinall brings his A game he will win but King is awkward to play against in terms of rythm of matches and if Aspinall is slightly off King will pounce on most chances given. Some of Aspinall's poorer head to head records are against more methodical players.

Simon Whitlock @1.8 vs John Henderson - Henderson had a good start to the year but has tailed off recently, only going beyond the last 32 stage in a tournament once in his last 8 played. Henderson has only won one game in Blackpool and notoriously struggles in heat which is usually a factor here and for stamina in long matches (first to 10 first round) Whitlock is playing well and has made a final, a semi and a quarter on the Euro Tour all in the last three months and plays well in heat (naturally being an Aussie)

I think only the King price is gone, in to 3.2 and still backable at that in my opinion.

I have a 1x stake on the first five selections and a 3x stake on Whitlock. Also for shits and giggles a 0.5 stake on the 6 fold acca.

-0.4 on the singles (remember Whitlock originally a 3x but cut to a 1.5)

Lewis never showed, Wattimena would have been unbackable at 50/1 with the mental midget attitude he showed.

Jamie Hughes was 6-3 up but seemed to tire for 3-4 legs and allowed Smith back into it. Maybe should have factored in more potential fatigue with longer format games for him.

Still not sure how de Zwaan lost, was 9-6 up and had a total of 5 match darts but James Wade doing James Wade things.

2.5x MVG outright gone too - he stepped it up from the first round but too many wayward darts. I think Durrant was too good and the game came too early for MVG, would have loved to seen them over a best of 31 in the next round. Rumours of some off board personal problems for MVG which maybe contributing to lack of focus on the oche.

Been an amazing tournament so far. If Wright makes semi's will get it to almost breakeven for the event, shame i'm not a fan of his haha ideally he gets beat in the semi's.

 

[madRedDevil07]

Not looking great, England are useless.

They were pretty useless at the start. I cashed out with 25% loss when the sixth wicket fell for ireland.