Afghanistan

Synco

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Disgusting, Isis I assume.

Everytime I see a notification for this thread my heart sinks and I think "what horror has occurred now" .
Not the only one there for sure.

I still feel I have to drop a few lines about your previous posts. Not because I think your portrayal of basic Pakistani interests and the political relevance of Indian and Afghan hostility is totally inaccurate, but because of how you, imo, process that into a pretty one-sided, pro-Pakistan narrative.

On the one hand you more or less justify Pakistan's decades-long violent meddling in Afghanistan, using quite jingoistic language. On the other hand you shrug off the resulting devastation and social disruption as an exclusively Afghan problem, with Pakistan only choosing between „working with their neighbours“ (which practically amounts to bringing a Pakistan-friendly force into political power) or, if that doesn't work out, „keeping the Afghans contained to their own hell hole“ and „let the Afghans fight it out amongst themselves“.

I see an obvious contradiction between these two narratives, but what they have in common is that they ultimately promote and legitimate Pakistan's/ISI's Afghanistan strategy. The first one by portraying Pakistan's role as solely counteracting Afghan and Indian aggression, the second one by simply omitting how aggressive Pakistan's Afghanistan policies themself were in the last decades, and how much they have contributed to creating that „hellhole“.

The way I see it, the now probably inevitable political integration of the Afghan Taliban is just the other side of supporting their relentless proxy warfare and terrorism, until the conditions are ripe for such a maneuver. You can't talk about one, but not of the other.
 

Zlatattack

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Not the only one there for sure.

I still feel I have to drop a few lines about your previous posts. Not because I think your portrayal of basic Pakistani interests and the political relevance of Indian and Afghan hostility is totally inaccurate, but because of how you, imo, process that into a pretty one-sided, pro-Pakistan narrative.

On the one hand you more or less justify Pakistan's decades-long violent meddling in Afghanistan, using quite jingoistic language. On the other hand you shrug off the resulting devastation and social disruption as an exclusively Afghan problem, with Pakistan only choosing between „working with their neighbours“ (which practically amounts to bringing a Pakistan-friendly force into political power) or, if that doesn't work out, „keeping the Afghans contained to their own hell hole“ and „let the Afghans fight it out amongst themselves“.

I see an obvious contradiction between these two narratives, but what they have in common is that they ultimately promote and legitimate Pakistan's/ISI's Afghanistan strategy. The first one by portraying Pakistan's role as solely counteracting Afghan and Indian aggression, the second one by simply omitting how aggressive Pakistan's Afghanistan policies themself were in the last decades, and how much they have contributed to creating that „hellhole“.

The way I see it, the now probably inevitable political integration of the Afghan Taliban is just the other side of supporting their relentless proxy warfare and terrorism, until the conditions are ripe for such a maneuver. You can't talk about one, but not of the other.
I didn't say any of what happens in Afghanistan is right, I just said what the Pakistani state is doing and why. What I've stated is pretty widely known inside Pakistan and out.

In a sense Pakistan is a bit like post SAF Manchester United (in not drawing a footballing comparison but rather a management one). It drifts from leader to leader with no real consistency in policy or any sense of bipartisan policy making. Its also extremely reactive, nor proactive. Diplomatically it is and always has been really really weak. We have no real established relationship with Afghanistan other than the fact the durand line split an ethnic group and in some cases tribes.

The deep state developed proxies in the 70s and 80s and that shitty policy continues. The Pakistan Taliban relationship is not built on trust but a case of "needs must" from both sides. In comparison we have FA relationship with anyone else in that country.

Again I don't think what Pakistan does there is right, but everyone else is playing a dirty game, it just so happens its the only game Pakistan is good at.
 

Synco

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I didn't say any of what happens in Afghanistan is right, I just said what the Pakistani state is doing and why. What I've stated is pretty widely known inside Pakistan and out.

In a sense Pakistan is a bit like post SAF Manchester United (in not drawing a footballing comparison but rather a management one). It drifts from leader to leader with no real consistency in policy or any sense of bipartisan policy making. Its also extremely reactive, nor proactive. Diplomatically it is and always has been really really weak. We have no real established relationship with Afghanistan other than the fact the durand line split an ethnic group and in some cases tribes.

The deep state developed proxies in the 70s and 80s and that shitty policy continues. The Pakistan Taliban relationship is not built on trust but a case of "needs must" from both sides. In comparison we have FA relationship with anyone else in that country.
Yeah, these parts on Pakistan's role were basically what I felt was missing earlier on.

I also agree that the relationship between the Pakistani security apparatus and the Afghan Taliban (who aren't monolithic either, for all I can tell) seems more like a pragmatic alliance based on mutual benefit. But I guess it's way too beneficial for both sides to expect a change there any time soon. Despite temporary setbacks, it has been a winning strategy for both.
Again I don't think what Pakistan does there is right, but everyone else is playing a dirty game, it just so happens its the only game Pakistan is good at.
That's certainly true. Not only for Afghanistan, but generally most violent conflicts. For all the inavoidable (and not necessarily wrong) partisanship: if people here would generally acknowledge this, there'd be a lot less unreason and fanaticism in discussions about them. But I guess there are reasons why doing the opposite is so attractive.
 

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snk123

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Without Pakistan state support the taliban would wither away. The wrong country was invaded after 9/11. Hopefully china can arm twist pakistan into controlling its terrorists.
You're right. It should have been Eygpt and Saudi Arabia.
I'm surprised you even entertained VidaRed's naive response based on hatred. Extremist Indians never admit to the role of RAW in Balochistan and sponsoring countless terror activities inside Pakistan.
 

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There’s been lots of murmurs about this process over the last few weeks:

 

Synco

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Really good news. Afghanistan is desperate for peace, but a peace where everyone can be safe
As usual, I fail to get your enthusiasm. This can go wrong in so many ways, and it remains to be seen what the long-term results of the emerging new order will be. And how much such an agreement will be worth in the end.
 

Buster15

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Really good news. Afghanistan is desperate for peace, but a peace where everyone can be safe
Referring to Afghanistan as an entity or a united country is still very far from the truth.

It has always been divided along tribal lines and the leaders of these tribes have not gone away.
They have and most likely will always fight amongst their selves to control the lucrative drugs trade and the drugs market has not gone away either.
 

2cents

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I'd imagine they control most of Nuristan as well since that's the mountainous terrain in the country.
I’d be interested to know how they distinguish ‘contested’ from other areas.
 

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I’d be interested to know how they distinguish ‘contested’ from other areas.
Having a functioning Governor and Provincial Council is probably part of it. Not having either likely mean the Taliban are in control. Having some semblance of government in place probably means there's conflict in the province involving the Taliban waging guerilla warfare against the US and locals.
 

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I guess all the major population centres are firmly (relatively speaking) under government control - anyone know the largest town or city under Taliban control?

Also, I'm quite surprised how much of the north is under Taliban control or contested.
 

Synco

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Also, I'm quite surprised how much of the north is under Taliban control or contested.
As far as I can tell, the red/dark grey parts in that map kind of resemble the general spread of Pashtun population in Afghanistan, of which some live in the northwest. But I can't tell if that really explains a lot when it comes to the current situation in the north. I think it has played a role in the past, like in the fighting around Mazar-i-Sharif in the late 90s.

Perhaps someone else can give a more confident answer.

---
Edit: The Taliban also seem to have successfully recruited among other ethnic groups in recent years
https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/1...ueling-the-talibans-expansion-in-afghanistan/
 
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2cents

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africanspur

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I guess my question would be...what do the Taliban have to gain by signing any peace deal?

The USA have been in Afghanistan for almost 20! years now. They haven't won (certainly not in any real sense of the world), the Taliban still controls swathes of Afghanistan and who knows how long the Afghan state would be able to stand up without external forces in the areas it does control.

Trump may be a bit of an ass but I reckon most Americans are probably fed up of the quagmire there and want their forces out.

So...do they just wait the Americans out? Not like they care too much about international legitimacy or trade deals etc either.
 

2cents

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So...do they just wait the Americans out?
I think that’s the approach taken by all America’s adversaries in that part of the world. There’s really not much respect for America’s staying power.
 

africanspur

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I think that’s the approach taken by all America’s adversaries in that part of the world. There’s really not much respect for America’s staying power.
Rightly so I think, especially if you've got guerilla warfare down to a T like the Taliban. You're not going to win an open war against them but just leech their resources for as long as possible until it becomes too costly for them/ not worth it any more.

Can only imagine what it will be like if the US ever decide to do a full on land invasion of Iran too.
 

VidaRed

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Taliban only exists because of pakistan. USA never eliminated the root of the problem.
 

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utdalltheway

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So, did the US win?
Or, should they have tread their history books before causing the deaths of countless Afghans and a lot of US/Allied military and spending god knows how much in that effort?
 

Dr. Dwayne

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So, did the US win?
Or, should they have tread their history books before causing the deaths of countless Afghans and a lot of US/Allied military and spending god knows how much in that effort?
They got their revenge for 9/11 and for those involved at the top level of decision making I think that's all that matters.
 

Zlatattack

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I guess my question would be...what do the Taliban have to gain by signing any peace deal?

The USA have been in Afghanistan for almost 20! years now. They haven't won (certainly not in any real sense of the world), the Taliban still controls swathes of Afghanistan and who knows how long the Afghan state would be able to stand up without external forces in the areas it does control.

Trump may be a bit of an ass but I reckon most Americans are probably fed up of the quagmire there and want their forces out.

So...do they just wait the Americans out? Not like they care too much about international legitimacy or trade deals etc either.
They do. The whole reason they fought the Americans was this. They wanted evidence of OBL involvement and to extradite him to Saudi Arabia. They weren't treated as equals, so they wrestled the American military until it accepted them as equals.

Now do they care about western standards and boundaries? No. Afghanistan will be a Shariah state, the Taliban are Conservative Pukhtun Muslims. They do care about trade, international recognition, allies - they see thier weaknesses from last time.

They may prove me wrong but this Taliban government is not going to be as savage as its predecessor.
 

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They do. The whole reason they fought the Americans was this. They wanted evidence of OBL involvement and to extradite him to Saudi Arabia. They weren't treated as equals, so they wrestled the American military until it accepted them as equals.

Now do they care about western standards and boundaries? No. Afghanistan will be a Shariah state, the Taliban are Conservative Pukhtun Muslims. They do care about trade, international recognition, allies - they see thier weaknesses from last time.

They may prove me wrong but this Taliban government is not going to be as savage as its predecessor.
Although I see your rationale, the last part often isn't true for irrational reasons.
 

Raoul

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So, did the US win?
Or, should they have tread their history books before causing the deaths of countless Afghans and a lot of US/Allied military and spending god knows how much in that effort?
There's no winning in Afghanistan. There is only booting the Taliban out to prevent them from allowing the country to be a safe haven for Al-Qaeda to plot further attacks in the west.
 

Foxbatt

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There's no winning in Afghanistan. There is only booting the Taliban out to prevent them from allowing the country to be a safe haven for Al-Qaeda to plot further attacks in the west.
I hate to say that you cannot boot the Taliban out of Afghanistan just like you cannot boot a group of Americans out of America. The Taliban are Afghanistan citizens. Actually it is a misnomer. They started as a group of religious students who started fighting the then government of Afghanistan and the Soviets. Talib is singular for a student. Taliban is plural of students in Pashto. So Taliban cannot be thrown out of Afghanistan as they are Afghanis themselves.
 

Raoul

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I hate to say that you cannot boot the Taliban out of Afghanistan just like you cannot boot a group of Americans out of America. The Taliban are Afghanistan citizens. Actually it is a misnomer. They started as a group of religious students who started fighting the then government of Afghanistan and the Soviets. Talib is singular for a student. Taliban is plural of students in Pashto. So Taliban cannot be thrown out of Afghanistan as they are Afghanis themselves.
That may have been the case when they first formed but that's not been their practice over the years. They are little more than a medieval cult who are imposing their insurgent police state onto the population - a level or so off from what ISIS were doing in Syria.
 

Foxbatt

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That may have been the case when they first formed but that's not been their practice over the years. They are little more than a medieval cult who are imposing their insurgent police state onto the population - a level or so off from what ISIS were doing in Syria.
They have always been a brutal medieval thinking group. But there is no way they can be removed from Afghanistan. But it is more complicated than that as there are many outside countries involved especially the Pakistani ISI and the Indian RAW and then the Saudis too.
 

Foxbatt

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I hope people understand that all this happened because of the USA and the Saudi Arabia funding the " Mujaahideen" who turned into Al Queda to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan to help the legal Afghani government. A government that was secular. It would have happened in Syria too if the Russians did not go in and help Assad. Putin was not going to let it happen the second time.
 

Raoul

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I hope people understand that all this happened because of the USA and the Saudi Arabia funding the " Mujaahideen" who turned into Al Queda to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan to help the legal Afghani government. A government that was secular. It would have happened in Syria too if the Russians did not go in and help Assad. Putin was not going to let it happen the second time.
It's a part of the cold war/post cold war we are in. Smaller states often get swept up in the plans of larger ones. Russia's involvement in Syria, the US in Iraq, Afghanistan, NATO in the Balkans, Libya etc.,