Starts with the manager.Maddison, Tielemans, Perreira, Soyuncu & Evans were all signed in the last year. It's not unfeesible United can't do the same in a short time frame.
Starts with the manager.Maddison, Tielemans, Perreira, Soyuncu & Evans were all signed in the last year. It's not unfeesible United can't do the same in a short time frame.
Europe?They are a stunning and exciting team to watch. Their midfield and defense are up there with the best in the league, and Vardy is still same old goalmachine. For me one of the best teams in Europe right now.
Yes, I'd say they are a top 10 team in Europe right now. Not many teams would beat them in a two-legged tie.Europe?
Vardy has a conversion rate webshops would kill for.Their xG says they’re performing out of their skin in front of goal and have had a bit of luck. 13 more goals than expected and they have conceded 5 less than they should. Seems unlikely that it will last.
They’re actually 13th in the league for xG. The Southampton result skews the data a little but even without it they’d still have scored more than predicted than any other side in the league.Vardy has a conversion rate webshops would kill for.
it's almost like XG is a made up statistic, its not even applied universally the same way by different sources, our XG against Southampton for example was 4 IIRCTheir xG says they’re performing out of their skin in front of goal and have had a bit of luck. 13 more goals than expected and they have conceded 5 less than they should. Seems unlikely that it will last.
It’s not made up and yes, against Southampton is was about 4. In a 9-0 you’d expect absolutely that the players had been exceptionally clinical. It’s why you rarely see results like that.it's almost like XG is a made up statistic, its not even applied universally the same way by different sources, our XG against Southampton for example was 4 IIRC
its completely made up because they are arbitrarily deciding how good a chance is but it doesn't take into account who the chance falls to so its complete BS, Ben Chilwell gets the same rating on a chance as Jamie Vardy, but I wouldn't expect a stats zombie to say anything different, watch the teams play and tell me how Leicester are the 13th best attacking side in the leagueIt’s not made up and yes, against Southampton is was about 4. In a 9-0 you’d expect absolutely that the players had been exceptionally clinical. It’s why you rarely see results like that.
It’s not perfect and will be improved as time goes on but it isn’t arbitrary and its a decent enough predictor. If you look at Chelsea’s last title win they massively outperformed their xG so it can be sustained for a season but it told you that it wasn’t much of a surprise when they got nowhere near the title the season after.its completely made up because they are arbitrarily deciding how good a chance is but it doesn't take into account who the chance falls to so its complete BS, Ben Chilwell gets the same rating on a chance as Jamie Vardy, but I wouldn't expect a stats zombie to say anything different, watch the teams play and tell me how Leicester are the 13th best attacking side in the league
Can't understand with all this crap about how this Leicester team is better than the Leicester team that won the PL. So fecking what, there was no team like Liverpool that season, this Liverpool team would have walked the PL that year.Comparing the current Leicester team with the one that won the league below, I personally think this present Leicester team looks better than the one that won the league in 2016:
2016 - Current
Schmeichel - Schmeichel
Simpson - Pereira
Huth - Evans
Morgan - Soyuncu
Fuchs - Chilwell
Kanté - N’Didi
Drinkwater - Tielemans
Mahrez - Perez
Okazaki - Maddison
Albrighton - Barnes
Vardy - Vardy
our 15-16 team got more points than the United treble winners in 99, its just another stick for the media to pat us on the head with, they will say Man City are still in the title race but won't say Leicester are even though we are second in the league, you just have to laugh at the idiotsCan't understand with all this crap about how this Leicester team is better than the Leicester team that won the PL. So fecking what, there was no team like Liverpool that season, this Liverpool team would have walked the PL that year.
The thing that's missing with these type of comparisons is context. I think that's why you could change the shirts of both teams as they are and you'd potentially see completely different outcomes. I think we have seen this with Harry, the weight of expectation makes a massive difference in the freedom to get results. Leicester can dine out on winning the league for the next lifetime. Better is subjective and the only comparisons in regard to context of performances and winning is a handful of teams in the world and that's why it's not a level Plainfield........
It always helps getting good players from the board though.Starts with the manager.
They are fourth in xG as well as xPts in the model I use which is more sophisticated than Understat's. But even then the margins are incredibly tight (only 2 xG between 4th and 12th) with City, Liverpool and Chelsea far ahead of the pack. But they are indeed massively outperforming their xG created which won't last. With the points advantage they have and assuming they can avoid injuries to their key players, top 4 should be a realistic aim. Anything above is silly.Their xG says they’re performing out of their skin in front of goal and have had a bit of luck. 13 more goals than expected and they have conceded 5 less than they should. Seems unlikely that it will last.
Which model do you use? I'd be interested to see the stats on them from it.They are fourth in xG as well as xPts in the model I use which is more sophisticated than Understat's. But even then the margins are incredibly tight (only 2 xG between 4th and 12th) with City, Liverpool and Chelsea far ahead of the pack. But they are indeed massively outperforming their xG created which won't last. With the points advantage they have and assuming they can avoid injuries to their key players, top 4 should be a realistic aim. Anything above is silly.
Cheers. Crikey that is expensive. Are you an enthusiast or do you have an official capacity, if you don't mind me asking?The main problem with Understat is that it doesn't take defensive pressure into account, i.e. it doesn't distinguish between one or four defenders between the shooter and the goalline or a free header and the attacker being surrounded by three defenders when jumping. I also read somewhere that a certain xG range is completely missing from Understat's data (e.g. no shots between 0.15 and 0.21; don't remember the exact numbers) which tells me they're using a rather simplistic formula. That doesn't matter too much in the long run and it is still a very useful tool but when you cross-check certain chances you'll see that some of the numbers are off. I do suspect though this is the reason why they have Atletico significantly outperforming their defensive stats season after season. It can't be all down to Oblak.
I use Wyscout (huge analysis platform that players and clubs use as well, and pricy) and also xgstats. The latter only covers English football but is by far the most accurate model I know as every single attempt is manually recorded. I can post the current xG table in the gameweek thread when the weekend games have been updated.
No, it starts with the owner and those making the decisions above the manager.Starts with the manager.
This sort of comment really erks me, they clearly don't want to dine out on if for their next lifetime, this team is a much better team than the title winning one and with City and Liverpool much better sides, they are clearly a very ambitious club with an owner who genuinely wants success. Rodgers is a good manager, they have a 20-25 goal a season striker, no reason they cant push Liverpool all the way this season.The thing that's missing with these type of comparisons is context. I think that's why you could change the shirts of both teams as they are and you'd potentially see completely different outcomes. I think we have seen this with Harry, the weight of expectation makes a massive difference in the freedom to get results. Leicester can dine out on winning the league for the next lifetime. Better is subjective and the only comparisons in regard to context of performances and winning is a handful of teams in the world and that's why it's not a level Plainfield........
I'm aware of that. But much of what the club have taken on board is what Pearson installed and they have run with it. The scouting, sports science, how they put a team together and the personalities etc. But you need owners and decision makers who are able to see that and embrace and take it forwards. It's become the clubs blueprint, the owners original blueprint for success was something else entirely.... big names and expensive signings with little cohesion (hello Sven).@foxedup the owners were t here in the league one season that was Mandaric, they took over second season back in championship
Help us Brendwan KenobiOur only hope.
So if your team drops off, and the likes of Everton (who are underperforming as per xG) start to rise, will you admit there’s something to it?it's almost like XG is a made up statistic, its not even applied universally the same way by different sources, our XG against Southampton for example was 4 IIRC
I was just looking at that table today. Vardy's due a dry spell as well as he's scored 5 more than expected.Their xG says they’re performing out of their skin in front of goal and have had a bit of luck. 13 more goals than expected and they have conceded 5 less than they should. Seems unlikely that it will last.
You can have all the xG stats in the world, but if one team has Jamie Vardy, Maddison and Tielemans on the end of their chances, whilst the other has Iwobi, Calvert-Lewin and Walcott. You might apply those xG rules the same, but it's a total bloody mismatch in terms of what one group of players is capable of achieving over the others.So if your team drops off, and the likes of Everton (who are underperforming as per xG) start to rise, will you admit there’s something to it?
It’s logical to my mind that if you have a defence that’s giving away 3 clear cut chances every game, but they somehow only let in 0-1 goals, then eventually that’s going to get found out.
Like don’t get me wrong results and goals are god, but the one thing xG does show is consistency in defending and creating chances, which eventually even a teams season out.
They do but what we are talking about here is sides that are significantly outperforming the average which Leicester currently are both with xG and xGA.Xg is a load of shite. The best teams should always be outperforming the average. If they aren’t then the stat is worthless because then it’s not an average.
Kante and Mahrez are special. The two of them alone would elevate us to top 4 team.Comparing the current Leicester team with the one that won the league below, I personally think this present Leicester team looks better than the one that won the league in 2016:
2016 - Current
Schmeichel - Schmeichel
Simpson - Pereira
Huth - Evans
Morgan - Soyuncu
Fuchs - Chilwell
Kanté - N’Didi
Drinkwater - Tielemans
Mahrez - Perez
Okazaki - Maddison
Albrighton - Barnes
Vardy - Vardy
Just an enthusiast. Though I bet regularly and xG is pretty valueable for that.Cheers. Crikey that is expensive. Are you an enthusiast or do you have an official capacity, if you don't mind me asking?
So you're expecting Vardy to finish the season with more than 30 PL goals, something he's never gotten close to, at 32?"Vardy's due a dry spell".
Is not based in reality, causality or statistics.
He has 20 goals in something like 22 games. There is no evidence whatsoever that this run won't continue.....other than the fanciful notion of having a 'purple patch'. Historically, there may be precedents as regards other strikers etc, but they have no value in predicting his ongoing form.
Fair point. Have to say, it kind of falls in with 'a months worth of rain in 24 hours' weather forecast. If a month's worth landed in a day, you might have to re-calibrate. When it comes to XG, the sample size is relatively small.No team historically outperforms xG by more than 15%. Leicester are doing so by 80% in front of goal this season, so yes there are due "a dry spell".
Again, I'd say it's a fair point, but if he was 22 would you say it's more likely, and why? There is no real reason to suggest Vardy won't carry on his goal scoring form, other than "it's unlikely". It may be, but it's not an argument that is being backed up by facts/stats other than XG, and again, I'd say it's a good stat with limited historical data.So you're expecting Vardy to finish the season with more than 30 PL goals, something he's never gotten close to, at 32?
Its much more likely that he'll have a dry spell and finish off somewhere around his usual 15 - 20.
Even the season he scored 24 he only outperformed XG by a couple of goals.
He's never had two creative 8's playing behind him, capable of giving him the chances that he loves. He scored 24 with basically just Mahrez as a creative partner, he scored 20 for Puel in one of the most boring and defensive Leicester teams I've ever seen. He's going to be a lot closer to 25 than he is 15.So you're expecting Vardy to finish the season with more than 30 PL goals, something he's never gotten close to, at 32?
Its much more likely that he'll have a dry spell and finish off somewhere around his usual 15 - 20.
Even the season he scored 24 he only outperformed XG by a couple of goals.
What was our xG the year van Persie won us our last title? Is there a way to go back and find out?Their xG says they’re performing out of their skin in front of goal and have had a bit of luck. 13 more goals than expected and they have conceded 5 less than they should. Seems unlikely that it will last.