Win Percentage Under Solskjaer

sugar_kane

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First of all, this is not a post about style of football or coaching ability, simply statistics and results.

A lot has been made of our win percentage and results under Solskjaer since him being made permanent which is admittedly poor right now (39%)

However as the below will show this is skewed massively by the period between the win in Paris and the end of last season which was an absolute train wreck and as freakish a set of results as his 82% win percentage in his stint as caretaker.

To track progress since he became manager I had a quick look at the progress of win percentage by splitting his games into chunks of 20 (yeah it's arbitrary, so is judging his results as caretaker completely separately from his results as permanent manager as many often seem inclined to do)*

games 1 to 20 - 75% win rate
games 21 to 40 - 20% win rate (!)
games 41 to 60 - 55% win rate
games 61 to 68 - 50% win rate

so the above basically shows that something freakishly bad happened games 21 to 40 (fatigue perhaps, emotional hangover from Paris, too much deadwood in the squad, bit of a shaky start to this season) but since then we seemed to have stabilised at a win rate which is roughly what you would expect from a United manager (54%)

In the context of the horrible luck with injuries we've had and reliance on what is still a fairly weak/young squad, that's not bad.

*quote from serial ABU Jonathan Wilson a few weeks ago:

That brings us to the present situation. Since he was given the job on a permanent basis in March, no United manager since Bamlett – not Frank O’Farrell, not Wilf McGuinness, not even the hapless Scott Duncan – has a worse win percentage than Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s 36.67%.

Quotes like the above would imply since Ole got the job permanently we've been winning 1 in 3 games on a consistent basis but as mentioned this is massively skewed by the crazily huge dip we had just after he was confirmed as manager and the shaky start we had this season which has since levelled out into a more consistent pattern of results.

Admittedly we're talking small sample sizes but to me there seems to be a clear pattern and evidence of progress and stabilisation.
 

Sky1981

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If mourinho was judged by this metric he'll still got the job.

Most sacked managers has 1 thing in common. Their last 20 games has been abysmall.

It doesnt matter if they managed 400 games and their first 380 is a perfect win. If you lose the most recent 20 you're out. Ask poch
 

andersj

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First of all, this is not a post about style of football or coaching ability, simply statistics and results.

A lot has been made of our win percentage and results under Solskjaer since him being made permanent which is admittedly poor right now (39%)

However as the below will show this is skewed massively by the period between the win in Paris and the end of last season which was an absolute train wreck and as freakish a set of results as his 82% win percentage in his stint as caretaker.

To track progress since he became manager I had a quick look at the progress of win percentage by splitting his games into chunks of 20 (yeah it's arbitrary, so is judging his results as caretaker completely separately from his results as permanent manager as many often seem inclined to do)*

games 1 to 20 - 75% win rate
games 21 to 40 - 20% win rate (!)
games 41 to 60 - 55% win rate
games 61 to 68 - 50% win rate

so the above basically shows that something freakishly bad happened games 21 to 40 (fatigue perhaps, emotional hangover from Paris, too much deadwood in the squad, bit of a shaky start to this season) but since then we seemed to have stabilised at a win rate which is roughly what you would expect from a United manager (54%)

In the context of the horrible luck with injuries we've had and reliance on what is still a fairly weak/young squad, that's not bad.

*quote from serial ABU Jonathan Wilson a few weeks ago:

That brings us to the present situation. Since he was given the job on a permanent basis in March, no United manager since Bamlett – not Frank O’Farrell, not Wilf McGuinness, not even the hapless Scott Duncan – has a worse win percentage than Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s 36.67%.

Quotes like the above would imply since Ole got the job permanently we've been winning 1 in 3 games on a consistent basis but as mentioned this is massively skewed by the crazily huge dip we had just after he was confirmed as manager and the shaky start we had this season which has since levelled out into a more consistent pattern of results.

Admittedly we're talking small sample sizes but to me there seems to be a clear pattern and evidence of progress and stabilisation.
I disagree that 54 is good enough. Maybe it was good enough a few years ago, but the teams win more nowadays. I would probably expect a minimum level now, considering the shape we are in, to be closer to Mourinhos 58 % (this also include an awful spell in the end). Maybe we could say that due to injuries, poor luck, rebuilding etc 55 % should be the minimum expected.

But you make a very good point about some journalists presenting misleading stats on our results.
 

Paul_Scholes18

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The last better win percentage flatter us. Cup games is relevant, but you include 1-0 over City which knocked us out.
Win over Tranmere etc.
In the league we have 1/5 wins since New year.
I guess you can say we improved a bit in December only to fall down again.
 

Walters_19_MuFc

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It's certainly not good reading, but it is a rebuild and most pundits identified it would get worse before it got better. Now, they're talking about the price spent on the squad when very few of these are Ole's players.

If he gets the time, he should be judged when he builds his own team.
 
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oooh we beat Colchester, Tranmere, Brugge, Astana & Partizan... wow! Colour me impressed.

No @sugar_kane the only win percentage that matters in any context is the league, of course, and we're at 36% this season. It's fecking awful and that's why loads is being made about it, no-one gives a feck if we can twat Tranmere, but we'd like to beat Crystal Palace at Old Trafford.
 

dove

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First of all, this is not a post about style of football or coaching ability, simply statistics and results.

A lot has been made of our win percentage and results under Solskjaer since him being made permanent which is admittedly poor right now (39%)

However as the below will show this is skewed massively by the period between the win in Paris and the end of last season which was an absolute train wreck and as freakish a set of results as his 82% win percentage in his stint as caretaker.

To track progress since he became manager I had a quick look at the progress of win percentage by splitting his games into chunks of 20 (yeah it's arbitrary, so is judging his results as caretaker completely separately from his results as permanent manager as many often seem inclined to do)*

games 1 to 20 - 75% win rate
games 21 to 40 - 20% win rate (!)
games 41 to 60 - 55% win rate
games 61 to 68 - 50% win rate

so the above basically shows that something freakishly bad happened games 21 to 40 (fatigue perhaps, emotional hangover from Paris, too much deadwood in the squad, bit of a shaky start to this season) but since then we seemed to have stabilised at a win rate which is roughly what you would expect from a United manager (54%)

In the context of the horrible luck with injuries we've had and reliance on what is still a fairly weak/young squad, that's not bad.

*quote from serial ABU Jonathan Wilson a few weeks ago:

That brings us to the present situation. Since he was given the job on a permanent basis in March, no United manager since Bamlett – not Frank O’Farrell, not Wilf McGuinness, not even the hapless Scott Duncan – has a worse win percentage than Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s 36.67%.

Quotes like the above would imply since Ole got the job permanently we've been winning 1 in 3 games on a consistent basis but as mentioned this is massively skewed by the crazily huge dip we had just after he was confirmed as manager and the shaky start we had this season which has since levelled out into a more consistent pattern of results.

Admittedly we're talking small sample sizes but to me there seems to be a clear pattern and evidence of progress and stabilisation.
Or is it because we had to play quite a few quite clearly weaker opponents at this period? First few rounds of FA, League Cup and EL clearly skewed win ratio too. Would be interested to see PL only.
 

Smores

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oooh we beat Colchester, Tranmere, Brugge, Astana & Partizan... wow! Colour me impressed.

No @sugar_kane the only win percentage that matters in any context is the league, of course, and we're at 36% this season. It's fecking awful and that's why loads is being made about it, no-one gives a feck if we can twat Tranmere, but we'd like to beat Crystal Palace at Old Trafford.
This

A throughly desperate thread
 

Kush

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It's certainly not good reading, but it is a rebuild and most pundits identified it would get worse before it got better. Now, they're talking about the price spent on the squad when very few of these are Ole's players.

If he gets the time, he should be judged when he builds his own team.
What non-sense, Ole should be judged on what he has accomplished during 14-18 months he's been at the club. Makeup of the squad is on him, who he keeps, who he sells, who he renews, who he buys. That's is solely Ole's responsibility.

He's already spent £200m ffs, if we allow him to build his 'own team' it would require another £600m. Only on Caf do you still see folks peddling this argument about not judging managers untill they have completely built their own team.

Aye, and just to really hammer the nail in let us break down this PL season in some nice chunks as the OP seems to enjoy them. Here's our PL season in 5 chunks of 5:

1-5: 2 wins
6-10: 1 win
11-15: 2 wins
16-20: 3 wins
21-25: 1 win

Consistently shite.
9 wins in last 30 PL games should be enough for any sane fan to recognize how shit he has been. Our next 8 PL matches are Chelsea (A), Watford (H), Everton (A), Man City (H), Spurs (A), Sheffield (H), Brighton (A), Bournemouth (H)

Even with a full house it would put us at 17 wins out of 38, which is a full season but still well below 50% win mark.
 

dove

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PL win percentage since Ole took over (it's possible I suck at maths):

games 1-10 80%
games 11-20 40%
games 21-30 20%
games 31-40 50%
games 41-47 33%

Can't see any progress or "evidence of progress and stabilisation" here at all. If not for a freak start he would definitely be one of the worst managers in our history for sure.
 

Andycoleno9

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9 wins in 25 games. 9 wins! Same as SU, Southampton( :lol: :lol: ) and Burnley. Four points from 14th spot.
And some people still try to spin that. And this part is the most ridiculous thing lately on Caf;

"Admittedly we're talking small sample sizes but to me there seems to be a clear pattern and evidence of progress and stabilisation"
If that means progress to be middle table club then sure, we are getting there.
 

sugar_kane

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oooh we beat Colchester, Tranmere, Brugge, Astana & Partizan... wow! Colour me impressed.

No @sugar_kane the only win percentage that matters in any context is the league, of course, and we're at 36% this season. It's fecking awful and that's why loads is being made about it, no-one gives a feck if we can twat Tranmere, but we'd like to beat Crystal Palace at Old Trafford.
Every manager's stats are skewed by non-league games, not sure why we have to dismiss games against the crap teams in the cups.

However,

Or is it because we had to play quite a few quite clearly weaker opponents at this period? First few rounds of FA, League Cup and EL clearly skewed win ratio too. Would be interested to see PL only.
^this is fair, hadn't thought about the fact the first half of the season would be more heavily skewed towards the easier cup games.

Anyway one of my points is that slicing up results is fairly nonsensical, but I'm merely playing at the same game that a lot of journalists and our own fans are playing.
 
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9 wins in last 30 PL games should be enough for any sane fan to recognize how shit he has been. Our next 8 PL matches are Chelsea (A), Watford (H), Everton (A), Man City (H), Spurs (A), Sheffield (H), Brighton (A), Bournemouth (H)
feck me that's terrifying. I can genuinely see that being LWLLL :nervous:

Let's hope Ole does another of his back from the dead routines and wins em all.
 

sugar_kane

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Not sure why I bothered - it's impossible to have a rational debate on this forum when the same rabid anti-solskjaer knob heads (you know who you are) jump into every thread and derail it instantly.
 

the chameleon

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I think we should give him 3-4 more years to establish his team. I mean Jurgen Klopp had that. Why not Ole? Let's allow him to really get those players he wants and imprint his philosophy.

Then, maybe in 3 years, we'll finally win the League 1 play-offs.
 
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Not sure why I bothered - it's impossible to have a rational debate on this forum when the same rabid anti-solskjaer knob heads (you know who you are) jump into every thread and derail it instantly.
Eh? Getting upset because people debated your post?

Who's the knobhead here if you want to make a post on a debate forum and not have it debated.
 

Paul_Scholes18

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I think we should give him 3-4 more years to establish his team. I mean Jurgen Klopp had that. Why not Ole? Let's allow him to really get those players he wants and imprint his philosophy.

Then, maybe in 3 years, we'll finally win the League 1 play-offs.
It has to get worse before it gets better. We need new foundations from the top.
Once we are down in league 2 the Glaziers might finally feck off and we can reach the top again.

Being shit is all part of Oles plan to help us remove the Glaziers. He is doing just enough to avoid the sack too in order to keep taking us down the table.
Thus be patient! 5-6 years and we might be in league 2.
 

The Bloody-Nine

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Not sure why I bothered - it's impossible to have a rational debate on this forum when the same rabid anti-solskjaer knob heads (you know who you are) jump into every thread and derail it instantly.
Start a blog if you don't want people to question your argument.
 

Jam

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Why should Ole be given that time and leeway when other more seasoned experienced managers didn’t?
 

90 + 5min

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So, there is not enough threads about Solskjaer. Let us make one more, lets some members play, twist and turn with statistic, lets us go with fake news and let it then be anoher "we hate Solskjaer and want him out"- thread. Without discussing questions why and how we are where we are.

There is clearly lack of love in this place from some. Only darkness.
 

sugar_kane

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Start a blog if you don't want people to question your argument.
I just said I'd happily debate it? The miserable piss-taking and crap banter is boring as feck though.

On this forum nowadays it's just the same people saying the same shallow shit over and over and over.

I've tried to look at things differently (and stressed that I'm not necessarily certain of my own argument...) and instantly been shot down by all the usual names saying we're going to get relegated to League One etc.
 

Gehrman

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Not sure why I bothered - it's impossible to have a rational debate on this forum when the same rabid anti-solskjaer knob heads (you know who you are) jump into every thread and derail it instantly.
Whats irrational about key points the posters being up?
 

Darlington Padgett

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feck me that's terrifying. I can genuinely see that being LWLLL :nervous:

Let's hope Ole does another of his back from the dead routines and wins em all.
Its sad that we might not even get 60 points this season... We're currently 8th and we are genuinely worse than every team ahead of us.
 

ostentatious

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Whats irrational about key points the posters being up?
People could be civil when presenting their thoughts/opinions, rather than being aggressive, doesn't matter what their point is. @dove made a couple of posts challenging the OP's view in this manner – it makes the whole discussion pleasant.
 

arthurka

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Please don't give me this crap, he did fine at the beging but he is doing a terrible job and he should be judged on how he is doing but how he did in the beging. He should have been sacked a while back to be fair.
 

AC1689

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OP flogging a dead horse.

Utterly embarrassing thread and the OP should hang their head in shame.

Ole’s win rate if you split it into chunks between 4/12/19 and 14/12/19 was 100%, so anyone criticising him is talking rubbish because you shouldn’t look at statistics on average.

I’ve seen it all now.
 

AC1689

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Not sure why I bothered - it's impossible to have a rational debate on this forum when the same rabid anti-solskjaer knob heads (you know who you are) jump into every thread and derail it instantly.
Are you insinuating that all those who want Solskjær gone are “rabid knob heads”?!

It’s funny how you criticise others for the lack of a healthy debate, and then yourself resort to name calling of a rather immature nature :lol:.

Try practicing what you preach.
 

hobbers

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I don't care about his win rate if it includes cup games and Europa. At all. It's irrelevant. Like when some clown tries to say the game at the Etihad in the cup counts as a win when it was an aggregate defeat and City were just sitting on their lead and didn't need to score. :lol:

What matters is what we've done in the league. And we've done fecking terribly under Ole. From March until now we've gone so far backwards it's actually comical.

We're not going to recover and get back into top four contention. We're not going to win the Europa League under Ole. He has to go in the summer.
 

redshaw

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Last season was such an up and down period you have to include both, or track it from the start of this season

We'll see at the end of this season what his win ratio is when we get some players back, we might have a strong finish. 9 league wins in 25 simply not good enough.
 

Gehrman

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Are you insinuating that all those who want Solskjær gone are “rabid knob heads”?!

It’s funny how you criticise others for the lack of a healthy debate, and then yourself resort to name calling of a rather immature nature :lol:.

Try practicing what you preach.
OP tells posters not to be rude and then call them knobheads.
 

wolvored

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First of all, this is not a post about style of football or coaching ability, simply statistics and results.

A lot has been made of our win percentage and results under Solskjaer since him being made permanent which is admittedly poor right now (39%)

However as the below will show this is skewed massively by the period between the win in Paris and the end of last season which was an absolute train wreck and as freakish a set of results as his 82% win percentage in his stint as caretaker.

To track progress since he became manager I had a quick look at the progress of win percentage by splitting his games into chunks of 20 (yeah it's arbitrary, so is judging his results as caretaker completely separately from his results as permanent manager as many often seem inclined to do)*

games 1 to 20 - 75% win rate
games 21 to 40 - 20% win rate (!)
games 41 to 60 - 55% win rate
games 61 to 68 - 50% win rate

so the above basically shows that something freakishly bad happened games 21 to 40 (fatigue perhaps, emotional hangover from Paris, too much deadwood in the squad, bit of a shaky start to this season) but since then we seemed to have stabilised at a win rate which is roughly what you would expect from a United manager (54%)

In the context of the horrible luck with injuries we've had and reliance on what is still a fairly weak/young squad, that's not bad.

*quote from serial ABU Jonathan Wilson a few weeks ago:

That brings us to the present situation. Since he was given the job on a permanent basis in March, no United manager since Bamlett – not Frank O’Farrell, not Wilf McGuinness, not even the hapless Scott Duncan – has a worse win percentage than Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s 36.67%.

Quotes like the above would imply since Ole got the job permanently we've been winning 1 in 3 games on a consistent basis but as mentioned this is massively skewed by the crazily huge dip we had just after he was confirmed as manager and the shaky start we had this season which has since levelled out into a more consistent pattern of results.

Admittedly we're talking small sample sizes but to me there seems to be a clear pattern and evidence of progress and stabilisation.
If we won 1 in 3 and had an invincibles season the maximum points would be 64. That's nowhere near enough and a lot less than Fergie managed.