SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[LordNinio]

Thats also what I was aware of, the day I left Thailand, but according to experts above, I'm not following Government advice.

I think as long as you're being sensible and following the rules we all have to live by now, then you can't do much more.

Obviously having been abroad, be a bit more aware, even more conscious of whether you could have something, or whether you need anything from the shop etc.

 

[F-Red]

People need to calm down with the trajectories as if it's a fecking competition. There's very little use in looking at them as the speed in early accelerations will differ so pick you can pick whatever arbitrary point you want to alter the lines.

The only important bit is when each country starts to flatten.

It gives a clear indication on capacity for a incoming peak. Italy has more ICU’s than the UK, and if our peak is bigger then you can almost predict the challenges. Utilising the existing data from other countries is equally important on seeing if their measures are working.

If you only look at the data when the cases start to flatline then you’re already too late.

 

[Sweet Square]

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Pretty much sums it up.

 

[sammsky1]

sorry to say - you should have really self-quarantined for 14 days before going out.

Shouldn't you be quarantined?

Naughty boy @sammsky1

It’s just common sense. Travel accounts for a lot of chance for infection. You don’t have to show symptoms to be infected. You will be infecting others unknowingly. If you travel you should self-quarantine - no buts. It’s the right thing to do.

I think that we might avoid that. The measures in place have come late but not too late as to warrant us moving into a full lockdown. It would take something really drastic, like a total moron coming back from someplace like, oh I dunno, let's say Thailand, and just immediately wandering around town instead of self isolating for two weeks. But I don't think anyone is as stupid as to do something as dumb as that.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ing-travellers-or-visitors-arriving-in-the-uk

then this

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection

According to Government laws and advice, which I take very seriously, I can't see what I've done wrong.

 

[F-Red]

According to Government advice and laws, which I take very seriously, I cant see what I've done wrong.

Officially, nothing. If i had just flown, i would probably acknowledge that the percentage rate of contact with Covid19 is higher than most. No harm in a precautionary measures, if only for those that could come into contact with you.

 

[yumtum]

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Pretty much sums it up.

Extended version for the guys response? You could almost see him disintegrate before your eyes.

 

[Smores]

It gives a clear indication on capacity for a incoming peak. Italy has more ICU’s than the UK, and if our peak is bigger then you can almost predict the challenges. Utilising the existing data from other countries is equally important on seeing if their measures are working.

If you only look at the data when the cases start to flatline then you’re already too late.

Don't disagree with that it's useful for modelling weeks ahead. I'm mainly arguing against comparisons of who has it worse based on arbitrary starting points. At such low numbers there's going to be a great variance in when exponential growth kicks off and the rate, these things can change quickly.

 

[Carolina Red]

Aaaaand I just found out that my dad's factory has been deemed "essential" as one of the things they make is part of medical protective equipment. Now I've got 2 folks to worry about.

 

[Moiraine]

Jeez, for the people wishing death on Boris is one thing
But you guys should be aware that Raab is a far more terrifying prospect as PM

And for the grass is greener brigade, on the flipside, in another universe we could have ended up with Diane Abbott as PM....

Can you please explain how ?
(Remember I am not a British).

 

[Amar__]

I just checked WHO's Facebok page and there's been hardly anything special for days there.

Rant ON

Anyone else annoyed that we hardly know anything new on the virus, timeline of the symptoms, some new symptomes maybe, and stuff like that, and it's basically been long period now since the world has been hit? Today I read one doctor saying that the patients admitted all had something different in their eyes, the white colour wasn't white, it was more red with some shades or something like that, he said it was difficult to describe but he says he could pretty much notice which patients were infected with the virus from few samples. But that's one isolated case I read, maybe it's not even correct, but what about other experiences from the doctors, we hardly heard anything from the China or Italy?

There are many people who've had it one months ago, and hardly anyone is sharing situation with their lungs, maybe some short term problems, etc. I mean, people and recovered patients are in their houses, what else are they doing except writing stupid posts on social media? I don't get how we aren't getting more stories and experiences from China or Italy. You would think people in China have internet.

Also, by the looks of it there are many reports from not so loud hospitals that the tests are really tricky and showing lots of false positives. What about test themselves, how much do they cost, how effective and correct they are, and which companies are making them? How much tests they can make tests in next few weeks, next few months? What about companies that make respirators, etc.

What about the virus, aside from non official stories about it's spread on different materials, how easy it is to share it in let's say a supermarket? What else is there to be extra careful except washing your hands? Washing your hands is literally the only guide WHO gave to an average person. How about some interactive videos about using gloves, how do dispose them, how to threat our clothes, our hair, etc? What exactly is killing people, do we have some filter for all those people that have died, I cannot believe that with all modern equipment we still haven't at least found what makes certain people so vulnerable, surely that's minimum what science should know by now?

How many Chinese have been in Europe and in which places? There's that video from USA and Florida(?) and people's locations based on their phones and locations, why aren't we getting that from China? China has the best surveilence of their citizens in the world, and yet we aren't getting any details from them about all this situation?

Sorry for the longer post, I(and probably many people here) am getting seriously annoyed about lack of some crucial information, and by the looks of it lack of preparedness from (at least) modern world about all this. We get Ronaldo's heatmap and number of sprints per game, we have 10 cameras and 1000 paparazzis following him everywhere, but after 3 full months of this shite we have no idea why people die except that it attacks lungs, all while some people have no symptoms at all while some random people just die. The world looks nowhere near ready for this virus even though scientistist expected it to happen, and not just that, but few months into it we absolutely have no new information, we are basically on level of information from mid January, except the pointless statistics that is mostly wrong too, considering the testing varies from country to country.

I have no idea what goverments all around the world expect from lockdowns, but I seriously think lockdowns won't last much for many people, there will be mental cases, there will be hungry people who will want to find food for their family, there will be people who just can't take it anymore, there are many people living alone that will need help, they won't last long alone, etc. People will ask for answers and solution to this, I am pretty sure people will start risking their lives if this continues. I mean, we had 2 patients escaping the hospital today here, we had people fighting for flour yesterday, and we had two guys fighting police tonight, all while our country actually took the lockdown pretty well and calm, but what will happen in more populated countries?


End of the rant

 

[sullydnl]

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In case any of ye are wondering exactly what cocooning entails.

 

[11101]

They are all corona virus. I think you mean Covid-19 is different but I doubt you actually know that to be true. SARS vaccine was trialed on animals but had too many nasty side effects it was deemed not sensible to go to human trials. Covid-19 may skip animal trials.... Im sorry but I would not be a guinea pig on that. Has any corona vaccine ever worked?

Yes a slip of the tongue, I mean Covid19.

Vaccines for SARS were being developed and progressing well, but when it disappeared of it's own accord they all stopped, there was no point carrying on.

MERS has only ever infected a few thousand people and doesnt spread well, so again there is no incentive.

Whoever develops a vaccine for this outbreak will make billions.

 

[Klopper76]

Yes, we have a quarantine act that's always in effect if you return to Canada and look seriously ill but due to COVID-19 it's been publicly stated that if you return to Canada from abroad you must self-quarantine for 14 days. If you're caught breaking this you face fines and possibly jail time.

My sister was working in the US and came back before the order but her employer instructed her to self quarantine for 14 days.

Canada is handling this much better than the UK is. Ford has done a decent job in Ontario imo.

How’re you holding up mate?

 

[LARulz]

It doesn't seem to be mutating very fast despite being an RNA virus (can't fix errors in the way DNA can) so a vaccine would likely be of great help for a year or two at least allowing time to adjust the vaccine as new strains become more common.

Mutations are most likely to make no difference to how it operates or make it milder, as viruses that are more deadly reproduce less than those that are milder.

If we find an anti-viral that works we could probably do with more than one as viruses can become resistant quite quickly.

If we do get a vaccine mass vaccination programs tend to speed up mutation by targetting the main strain, as happens to some degree with flu. The small % not prevented by the vaccine becomes the dominant strain. Testing kits might need to be adjusted as well.

So at the moment, with limited information, it seems that mutation isn't a huge concern at the moment.

Excellent, thank you for the explanation. And making it easy enough for me to understand!

 

[senorgregster]

Sorry if posted already. This thread is moving way too fast. Small study, somewhat known, but now published.

Objective To determine whether convalescent plasma transfusion may be beneficial in the treatment of critically ill patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.

Results All 5 patients (age range, 36-65 years; 2 women) were receiving mechanical ventilation at the time of treatment and all had received antiviral agents and methylprednisolone. Following plasma transfusion, body temperature normalized within 3 days in 4 of 5 patients, the SOFA score decreased, and Pao2/Fio2 increased within 12 days (range, 172-276 before and 284-366 after). Viral loads also decreased and became negative within 12 days after the transfusion, and SARS-CoV-2–specific ELISA and neutralizing antibody titers increased following the transfusion (range, 40-60 before and 80-320 on day 7). ARDS resolved in 4 patients at 12 days after transfusion, and 3 patients were weaned from mechanical ventilation within 2 weeks of treatment. Of the 5 patients, 3 have been discharged from the hospital (length of stay: 53, 51, and 55 days), and 2 are in stable condition at 37 days after transfusion

 

[Hansa]

I have no idea what goverments all around the world expect from lockdowns, but I seriously think lockdowns won't last much for many people, there will be mental cases, there will be hungry people who will want to find food for their family, there will be people who just can't take it anymore, there are many people living alone that will need help, they won't last long alone, etc. People will ask for answers and solution to this, I am pretty sure people will start risking their lives if this continues. I mean, we had 2 patients escaping the hospital today here, we had people fighting for flour yesterday, and we had two guys fighting police tonight, all while our country actually took the lockdown pretty well and calm, but what will happen in more populated countries?

The lockdowns are desperate attempts to stem the tide from the first wave, in order for our governments to buy themselves a bit of time while figuring out how to progress from here. Right now, it's every country for itself, but I hope that the coming months will see a more sophisticated effort to combine the efforts, especially when it comes to production of essential equipment and protective gear for health workers.

As for people not coping with solitude, I'm afraid these things are collateral damage in the war we're battling now. In most of Europe, we just have to accept that this spring and summer won't be anything like what we're used to. As long as there's enough food to go around, we should be okay. I'm quite sure that the toughest measures will be lifted, and people will be able to move around a bit more freely on their own.

In Africa and parts of Asia, on the other hand, I have no idea how they are going to cope.

 

[VidaRed]

Whoever develops a vaccine for this outbreak will make billions.

 

[Wibble]

Interesting story about USA jockey Javier Castellano getting tested for Covid-19 but only as part of medical protocols to be able to ride at Gulfstream Park, came back positive, he has no idea as he was asymptomatic, jogged three miles the previous day, etc.

How many of us are there like this, and how much of the disease are we spreading whilst totally unaware.

The main method of spreading is through droplets - coughing and sneezing primarily - so even if asymptomatic people are able to pass the disease on they won't very often especially if we all follow hygiene and social distancing guidelines

 

[hungrywing]

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

The sooner we have ELISA testing the better, preferably in a panel alongside PCR simple positive/negative. Ideally, we need them quickly and en-masse.

 

[Lennon7]

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Whoever’s behind red issue is a fecking weird bastard

 

[Hound Dog]

Trump expects 100k new ventilators to be built over the next 100 days. Probably not gonna do much for this wave, but it should help US a lot for the next wave.

I am sure you have read the Hammer and Dance article. Why do you think there will be a second wave?

 

[pratyush_utd]

The main method of spreading is through droplets - coughing and sneezing primarily - so even if asymptomatic people are able to pass the disease on they won't very often especially if we all follow hygiene and social distancing guidelines

Another way is when the person speak, droplets come out of his mouth and these are so tiny that you wont even realise and inhale them. So if you are saying not even talking to people who are asymptomatic and keeping 6 feet distance with everyone all the time, it feels like an impossible task.

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

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Whoever’s behind red issue is a fecking weird bastard

I mean, of course the Prime Minister got a test.

He's the fecking Prime Minister!

 

[pratyush_utd]

No wonder it is controlled in China. He is waiting for the right time to save us all.

 

[justboy68]

Again, please show me instructions from our Government where Im asked to quarantine!

You're doing nothing wrong. My mum is a fairly senior nurse in the NHS and just got back from Thailand herself. She was planning to isolate of her own accord but her bosses have told her to be in on Monday!

 

[Revan]

I am sure you have read the Hammer and Dance article. Why do you think there will be a second wave?

I have not actually but I will do it ASAP.

I think there is gonna be a second wave simply cause there is no way that we are gonna send the number of infections to 0, and that the lockdown(s) are not going to last until the vaccine gets ready. So, almost surely (IMO) there is going to be a second (and likely a third wave). Would it be really peaked ways, or more like uniform distributions is another matter, though with lockdowns happening, probably the infections are gonna come in waves (lockdown gets relaxed, all good for a month or two, then the number increases, need again to take some measures and so on).

Historically, infectious diseases have come in waves. The Spanish flu had a second and a third wave (with the second one being the most lethal). Cholera came and went multiple times. Even the deadly plague in the end of medieval didn't kill half of the European population in a go, but it took 4-5 years to do so. Now, the swine flu didn't have a second wave, but it needs to be said, that there was a vaccine for it (for a long time actually), and a lot of people got infected in the first place. When it comes to covid-19, there won't be a herd immunity if most of the people stay at home and don't catch in the first place. And if most people are vulnerable, then the infections are gonna explode when the constrains are gonna be relaxed. Finally, most of the experts seem to agree that likely the virus is gonna be with us (until at least a vaccine will be available) and is gonna be endemic in the population. So it is not that in a few weeks, it is gonna leave forever, that looks like wishful thinking more than anything.

I am not an expert on this, so I might be totally wrong.

 

[4bars]

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From the tenth dead

 

[Adisa]

The US figures have me convinced the Chinese figures are bullshit.
Remember China did not put in any measure until well over a month after the outbreak. 5m people left Wuhan in the days before the closure.

 

[GifLord]

The US figures have me convinced the Chinese figures are bullshit.
Remember China did not put in any measure until well over a month after the outbreak. 5m people left Wuhan in the days before the closure.

And when they did they were deemed inhumane in the eyes of the public. People were going crazy after the video of a couple being shoved on a back of a pickup truck and the woman screaming like crazy went viral.
What do we do? We wait and wait and wait until it's too late.

 

[Revan]

The US figures have me convinced the Chinese figures are bullshit.
Remember China did not put in any measure until well over a month after the outbreak. 5m people left Wuhan in the days before the closure.

There were only 400 confirmed cases in Wuhan when the lockdown happened. When italy got into lockdown (nowhere as strong as the Hubei lockdown) there were 9000 confirmed cases.

I agree that China numbers might be wrong (they probably are), but also, they acted faster and with more urgency than US/EU/UK.

 

[Ludens the Red]

So Many of us willing to change every aspect of life as we know it to protect people like her. She really should be arrested and prosecuted for manslaughter or even pre meditated murder.

Some very tough and draconian measures needed urgently.

So back from Thailand.

Just went out to shops for first time and was quite startled how people were looking very suspiciously at each other, actively avoiding each other when walking, and generally being very careful.

Of course it’s good that Government requirements are being met, but I am intrigued/worried about the longer terms effects of this new enforced behaviour. It feels like the first stage on one of the zombie movies.

Who knows how this will play out!

You've not helped yourself here.

The minute I saw your post I thought , hang on, wasn't this the person who ...….

 

[Dante]

Some back-of-a-fag-packet maths:

The UK started lockdown on Tuesday 24 March.

If you assume that there's a 14 day lag for new measures to be reflected in reality and that the number of cases will keep rising by about 30% per day, the peak for positive test results would be on 11 April.

Since the incubation period is about 2 weeks, hospitals could then be under the most strain on around 25 April.

If the lockdown is successful and the cases rate increase then drops to 15% per day, it'll take till around 26 April to reach the numbers required for herd immunity (regardless of whether that's the aim or not, and assuming the real cases are 20 times as numerous as tested cases). Then another 2 weeks before those people can all leave self-isolation. So the UK could potentially begin to lift measures on 10 May.

If the country can somehow keep it together for 7 weeks, the nationwide crisis could be over as soon as then. Unfortunately, we'd be looking at over 1 million dead (assuming a 2% CFR, plus all those who can't get treated because of the NHS being over capacity). That's absolutely horrific, but I'm not sure if there's any way around it given what's happened up until now.

 

[sammsky1]

You've not helped yourself here.

The minute I saw your post I thought , hang on, wasn't this the person who ...….

Slight difference: She was talking about actively ignoring advice and new laws. As shown above from UK Government website, I've done nothing of the sort.

 

[sammsky1]

How the Pandemic Will End
The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

 

[Wibble]

Some back-of-a-fag-packet maths:

The UK started lockdown on Tuesday 24 March.

If you assume that there's a 14 day lag for new measures to be reflected in reality and that the number of cases will keep rising by about 30% per day, the peak for positive test results would be on 11 April.

Since the incubation period is about 2 weeks, hospitals could then be under the most strain on around 25 April.

If the lockdown is successful and the cases rate increase then drops to 15% per day, it'll take till around 26 April to reach the numbers required for herd immunity (regardless of whether that's the aim or not). Then another 2 weeks before those people can all leave self-isolation. So the UK could potentially begin to lift measures on 10 May.

If the country can somehow keep it together for 7 weeks, the nationwide crisis could be over as soon as then. Unfortunately, we'd be looking at over 1 million dead. That's absolutely horrific, but I'm not sure if there's any way around it given what's happened up until now.

Herd immunity for many diseases requires 70-95% of the population to have the disease or be vaccinated. Viruses tend to require less but even flu, where 40-50% is the estimate required to reach the HIL threshold, hasn't been achieved yet. Covid-19 is estimated to need a HIL of 50-80% which will kill millions unless we slow infections down and achieve this level with a vaccine (assuming we can develop one).

 

[Dante]

Herd immunity for many diseases requires 70-95% of the population to have the disease or be vaccinated. Viruses tend to require less but even flu, where 40-50% is the estimate required to reach the HIL threshold, hasn't been achieved yet. Covid-19 is estimated to need a HIL of 50-80% which will kill millions unless we slow infections down and achieve this level with a vaccine (assuming we can develop one).

I've factored all of that in.

 

[Utdstar01]

Some back-of-a-fag-packet maths:

The UK started lockdown on Tuesday 24 March.

If you assume that there's a 14 day lag for new measures to be reflected in reality and that the number of cases will keep rising by about 30% per day, the peak for positive test results would be on 11 April.

Since the incubation period is about 2 weeks, hospitals could then be under the most strain on around 25 April.

If the lockdown is successful and the cases rate increase then drops to 15% per day, it'll take till around 26 April to reach the numbers required for herd immunity (regardless of whether that's the aim or not, and assuming the real cases are 20 times as numerous as tested cases). Then another 2 weeks before those people can all leave self-isolation. So the UK could potentially begin to lift measures on 10 May.

If the country can somehow keep it together for 7 weeks, the nationwide crisis could be over as soon as then. Unfortunately, we'd be looking at over 1 million dead (assuming a 2% CFR, plus all those who can't get treated because of the NHS being over capacity). That's absolutely horrific, but I'm not sure if there's any way around it given what's happened up until now.

So no possibility of a positive outcome...

 

[Dante]

So no possibility of a positive outcome...

We can't cage the wind, unfortunately. Which isn't to say we should stop trying. But we're ultimately going to lose.

EDIT: though I suppose it comes down to how accurate the CFR is.

A CFR of 2% is based on 2 dead out of 100 positive test results. But if the actual number of infected people is 2000, a more accurate CFR would be 0.1%. Extrapolating that over the whole population of the UK would mean "only" 70,000+ dead.

But I'm not sure it's possible to be accurate about your own inaccuracy in this way. Like I say, it's all just back-of-a-fag-packet stuff.

 

[2 man midfield]

Some back-of-a-fag-packet maths:

The UK started lockdown on Tuesday 24 March.

If you assume that there's a 14 day lag for new measures to be reflected in reality and that the number of cases will keep rising by about 30% per day, the peak for positive test results would be on 11 April.

Since the incubation period is about 2 weeks, hospitals could then be under the most strain on around 25 April.

If the lockdown is successful and the cases rate increase then drops to 15% per day, it'll take till around 26 April to reach the numbers required for herd immunity (regardless of whether that's the aim or not, and assuming the real cases are 20 times as numerous as tested cases). Then another 2 weeks before those people can all leave self-isolation. So the UK could potentially begin to lift measures on 10 May.

If the country can somehow keep it together for 7 weeks, the nationwide crisis could be over as soon as then. Unfortunately, we'd be looking at over 1 million dead (assuming a 2% CFR, plus all those who can't get treated because of the NHS being over capacity). That's absolutely horrific, but I'm not sure if there's any way around it given what's happened up until now.

May 10th