SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

JPRouve

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Why does the worldometer site have the daily deaths at 1053?
Because until this week the stat on Worldometer only concerned deaths of hospitalized patients but now that France is reporting deaths outside of hospitals that have occured since late February, Worldometer thought that it was a good idea to put deaths from the last 24 hours and old deaths together, it's a bit misleading and they should have simply changed the total.

From next week you should have actual, reliable daily deaths for France wherever they happened.
 

Cardboard elk

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As a Noggie living in Sweden i am very glad you guys seem to have some sort of control so far at least.
I would very much like to drive home to Oslo in the summer to visit my parentes.
I hope they get it under control by then mate. If you have the possibility to go by car that would be a lot better than risking buses like in that article you posted. Maybe the 14 days quarantine thing will be in place in June/July also though. Too early to tell propably.
 

BootsyCollins

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I hope they get it under control by then mate. If you have the possibility to go by car that would be a lot better than risking buses like in that article you posted. Maybe the 14 days quarantine thing will be in place in June/July also though. Too early to tell propably.
Jupp, i always drive when going to Oslo. 5 hours from Stockholm with a stop so not worth flying imo.
I would gladly stay 14 days in quarantine before i could visit them, then 14 days when back in Sweden, if that ment i could spend some time with them. And actually hug my mother.
 

Ekkie Thump

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Because until this week the stat on Worldometer only concerned deaths of hospitalized patients but now that France is reporting deaths outside of hospitals that have occured since late February, Worldometer thought that it was a good idea to put deaths from the last 24 hours and old deaths together, it's a bit misleading and they should have simply changed the total.

From next week you should have actual, reliable daily deaths for France wherever they happened.
Is that also the reason they've weirdly added 23k cases to France's total yesterday too?
 

antsmithmk

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More important i think is that 74 fewer people are today in intensive care than yesterday in Italy. First day since the outbreak its going down, and if its continue it gives the hospital some much needed breathing room.
Either terrible or totally appropriate choice of words at the end there.
 

Port Vale Devil

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Because until this week the stat on Worldometer only concerned deaths of hospitalized patients but now that France is reporting deaths outside of hospitals that have occured since late February, Worldometer thought that it was a good idea to put deaths from the last 24 hours and old deaths together, it's a bit misleading and they should have simply changed the total.

From next week you should have actual, reliable daily deaths for France wherever they happened.
Thanks for the explanation.
 

C'est Moi Cantona

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France update:

- 4267 new cases.
- 441 new deaths.
- 7560 total deaths; 5332 in hospitals, 2028 in nursing homes and the rest from other structures.
So slightly confusing reporting apart, and the fact that France have had more overall deaths than the Uk, they could actually be in better shape atm, with daily totals maybe plateauing off around the 500 mark.
 

redshaw

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France update:

- 4267 new cases.
- 441 new deaths.
- 7560 total deaths; 5332 in hospitals, 2028 in nursing homes and the rest from other structures.
Small correction, it's 5532 hospital deaths.
 

JPRouve

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Is that also the reason they've weirdly added 23k cases to France's total yesterday too?
Yup, same reason.

So slightly confusing reporting apart, and the fact that France have had more overall deaths than the Uk, they could actually be in better shape atm, with daily totals maybe plateauing off around the 500 mark.
That's true to some extent, there were more deaths in March than initially reported, which was predictable, but even if you add 50 daily deaths in March you are still below 500 daily deaths with the last three days being a peak without massive jump.

Small correction, it's 5532 hospital deaths.
Thanks, I repeated the mistake from a paper even though I knew that it was a mistake.:lol:
 

onemanarmy

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Testing capacity has reached 10000 a day in Belgium as of today. Does anyone have numbers for that in other countries?
 

Penna

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I feel a little bit more hopeful with the Italian figures. Worldometer says this about today's numbers:
The target of bringing down the reproductive number (R0) to 1 has been reached. Now the goal is to bring it below 1. Earlier in the epidemic, it was as high as 3. This value represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. An epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappear
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
 

Garethw

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redshaw

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From the BBC

Italy's Lombardy residents required to wear masks
"Residents in the northern Italian region of Lombardy will now be required to wear protective masks or cover their faces when they go outside.
The new measure comes into effect on Sunday and will last until 13 April.
The ordinance from the region's President Attilio Fontana follows similar guidelines in other northern regions, Veneto and Alto Adige, where residents must wear masks when shopping in stores and at markets.
The whole of Italy is in lockdown, but Lombardy - the epicentre of the virus in Europe - has passed particularly tight restrictions on movement and business."
 

SteveJ

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I saw a tweet from Folkestone council saying that they have had to give out many warnings today as the seafront was very busy. A family from Bromley (about 60 miles away from Folkestone) had travelled there.
Just read that Lambeth Council closed a park after 3000 people visited it today.
 

mitChley

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Hardly surprising, our local neighbourhood think it's a good idea to put Easter Eggs in the windows and have kids walk around and spot the eggs. They don't see anything wrong with hundreds of kids all being around each other at the same time as apparently they will all definitely be 2 metres apart at all times.
 

vodrake

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Just read that Lambeth Council closed a park after 3000 people visited it today.
I live near Finsbury Park, I don't know the numbers but it was very busy today. People sunbathing, hanging around, swarms of runners right next to each other. I'm sure at some point they'll close it as well

You wonder what goes through peoples heads
 
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I live near Finsbury Park, I don't know the numbers but it was very busy today. People sunbathing, hanging around, swarms of runners right next to each other. I'm sure at some point they'll close it as well

You wonder what goes through peoples heads
I’ve made the argument since the start that lockdowns don’t work, unless it’s one city and you have the military might of China to enforce it.

You’ll never get enough people all over the country to do it for long enough, the UK is already getting fed up and Southern Italy will be on the verge of anarchy if this continues.

Lockdowns are a decent delaying tactic when required, and if just 50% of people conform and the other 50% are not really doing it but are outdoors, it’ll still be enough to really slow the spread and that’s all we can hope for really.
 

11101

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From the BBC

Italy's Lombardy residents required to wear masks
"Residents in the northern Italian region of Lombardy will now be required to wear protective masks or cover their faces when they go outside.
The new measure comes into effect on Sunday and will last until 13 April.
The ordinance from the region's President Attilio Fontana follows similar guidelines in other northern regions, Veneto and Alto Adige, where residents must wear masks when shopping in stores and at markets.
The whole of Italy is in lockdown, but Lombardy - the epicentre of the virus in Europe - has passed particularly tight restrictions on movement and business."
Good luck with that considering i haven't been able to buy a mask here for about 2 months now.
 

NYAS

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I feel a little bit more hopeful with the Italian figures. Worldometer says this about today's numbers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
One of the ministers who does the press conferences said it was up at 5.6 at one point. Good that its finally hit 1.
I’m a bit confused here. Doesn’t the R0 of a virus mean the natural reproductive ability a virus has and the number of people one person can infect in one interaction? How does a lockdown change that, or any human intervention?

Lockdowns of course prevent more people getting infected, but if Covid-19 has a natural R0 of 2.5, I take a Covid-19 positive patient out on the street during the 3rd month of a complete lockdown with two non-infected people and the former coughs in front of the latter, surely chances are both will get it? It’s not like the Italian coronavirus is now weaker than the American or French coronavirus, surely?

I get the point of the paragraph in saying lockdowns help but I don’t understand how the R0 in one country can be different than in another. Am I missing something here?
 

11101

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I’m a bit confused here. Doesn’t the R0 of a virus mean the natural reproductive ability a virus has and the number of people one person can infect in one interaction? How does a lockdown change that, or any human intervention?

Lockdowns of course prevent more people getting infected, but if Covid-19 has a natural R0 of 2.5, I take a Covid-19 positive patient out on the street during the 3rd month of a complete lockdown with two non-infected people and the former coughs in front of the latter, surely chances are both will get it? It’s not like the Italian coronavirus is now weaker than the American or French coronavirus, surely?

I get the point of the paragraph in saying lockdowns help but I don’t understand how the R0 in one country can be different than in another. Am I missing something here?

As far as i know there are two ways of expressing it. There's the natural reproduction number if it were allowed to go unchecked, and the actual reproduction number which is what actually happens in reality.
 

NYAS

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As far as i know there are two ways of expressing it. There's the natural reproduction number if it were allowed to go unchecked, and the actual reproduction number which is what actually happens in reality.
Thanks but I still don’t quite understand how reproductive ability of a virus is something humans can change (other than immunity). Wouldn’t the coronavirus still have the ability to infect an average of X number of people (by way of how contagious it is) regardless of how many people are in lockdown? How does that get suppressed?
 
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As far as i know there are two ways of expressing it. There's the natural reproduction number if it were allowed to go unchecked, and the actual reproduction number which is what actually happens in reality.
So in lockdown you can get it below 1? And then how long lockdown before it, as they say “disappears”. Because didn’t this come from one market in China and has now infected millions?
I don’t understand how it will just disappear unless they mean months and months of lockdown and zero transmission outside the home?
 

Penna

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Good luck with that considering i haven't been able to buy a mask here for about 2 months now.
You can use a scarf or something else evidently, you just have to have your mouth and nose covered. It'll soon be required in other regions no doubt, but everyone's doing it here anyway.
I’ve made the argument since the start that lockdowns don’t work, unless it’s one city and you have the military might of China to enforce it.

You’ll never get enough people all over the country to do it for long enough, the UK is already getting fed up and Southern Italy will be on the verge of anarchy if this continues.

Lockdowns are a decent delaying tactic when required, and if just 50% of people conform and the other 50% are not really doing it but are outdoors, it’ll still be enough to really slow the spread and that’s all we can hope for really.
The lockdown is a half-lockdown in the UK. There's too much leeway for people to go outside for long periods and to go to any supermarket they want, plus it's not being well-enforced. No-one's been going anywhere here for weeks, it's been that way for even longer where @11101 lives and in the south, loads of people are starving and penniless which is a large part of why there's so much unrest (plus, organised crime).