SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Cardboard elk

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Thanks but I still don’t quite understand how reproductive ability of a virus is something humans can change (other than immunity). Wouldn’t the coronavirus still have the ability to infect an average of X number of people (by way of how contagious it is) regardless of how many people are in lockdown? How does that get suppressed?
This number describes the number of people, on average, who will catch a disease from a single infected person. If that number can be brought down to below 1.0, this signals that an epidemic will decline.
You can read more about the factors used to calculate this number in the link below. The R0 is not just the Virus itself but also how we deal with it, that means the number lowers when we put restrictions in society and contact between people lessens, for example.

https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number
 

finneh

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The most concerning thing about this pandemic is how readily people will embrace authoritarianism.

As long as they feel good about themselves.
Agreed. It's terrifying how enthusiastically people are giving up their freedoms for a little safety.
 

Paxi

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In my hometown, in Russia, a woman killed her partner by stabbing him through the heart whilst they were self isolating. He died instantly. Needless to say, there was copious amount of vodka involved. I'm kind of desensitised when it happens in Russia as opposed to UK.

If domestic violence wasn't bad enough in the motherland already... :(
 

T00lsh3d

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Ok, let me preface this by saying that JRM is a cnut.
But the article talks about how the investment group plans to acquire businesses who’s valuation has dropped, but will bounce back. Isn’t that a pretty standard investment tactic?
It also goes on to say they’ll be investing in hospitals in Brazil and mask technology. Companies that probably need a cash injection right now.
Seriously misleading title imho
 

MDFC Manager

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Agreed. It's terrifying how enthusiastically people are giving up their freedoms for a little safety.
Madness isn't it.

In fact, this is the right time for a worldwide people's movement! Let's all occupy the streets!
 

Dans

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I wonder what percentage of deaths reported as being due to Corona virus are in fact deaths that would have happened anyway, but which Corona has "merely sped up".
 

Dancfc

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Agreed. It's terrifying how enthusiastically people are giving up their freedoms for a little safety.
More terrifying how many people are being brainwashed into believing lockdown "for aslong as it takes" is the only way.

Now don't get me wrong I actually agree that the lockdown is the right thing currently to ease the spread and the pressure on the NHS but it's not viable for any longer than six weeks and even that's pushing it. We will come back out to a third world country if some people get their way.
 

Bojan11

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More terrifying how many people are being brainwashed into believing lockdown "for aslong as it takes" is the only way.

Now don't get me wrong I actually agree that the lockdown is the right thing currently to ease the spread and the pressure on the NHS but it's not viable for any longer than six weeks and even that's pushing it. We will come back out to a third world country if some people get their way.
You do realise lockdown isn’t just to ease the pressure on NHS it’s also about saving lives right?
 

Pexbo

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I wonder what percentage of deaths reported as being due to Corona virus are in fact deaths that would have happened anyway, but which Corona has "merely sped up".
100%
 
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I wonder what percentage of deaths reported as being due to Corona virus are in fact deaths that would have happened anyway, but which Corona has "merely sped up".
Prof Neil Ferguson, the lead modeller at Imperial College London, has suggested it could be up to two-thirds. Problem is, those 2/3's would be spread out over 365 days rather than in a month or two.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654



Over a long term, all of them.
:lol:

Well played.
 

Dancfc

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You do realise lockdown isn’t just to ease the pressure on NHS it’s also about saving lives right?
I totally agree that any death is a tragedy and we should do our utmost to preserve life. This is also not about wanting to go back to the pub or go to the cinema. I could quite easily shelve all those unimportant things.

This is about having a life to lead after this (which in turn will save thousands of lives in itself due to significantly more people being able to feed their kids) 60% of business will fail if this goes on longer than short term. Do you even consider what world that would leave us with?

I have 2 neices who will miss out on a significant part of their education. Do you understand the implications of this further down the line?

Does anyone really understand the mental health aspect?

It's all very well talking about funding an NHS, but if no one can pay tax then who is going to fund it? Another country who has the same problem?

People seem to think that without lockdown until there is a vaccine that this disease is going to kill millions,l. It's simply not true and never has been. Yes, you get isolated sad cases and I feel the greatest sympathy

At some point caution becomes counter productive and won't only fail to protect the NHS and save lives, but do the total opposite.
 

Dans

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And so what in effect is happening, is that, and this is obviously a very cold way of looking at things, but what's happening is that the economy is potentially being destroyed to prolong the lives of a few by months.
 

4bars

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I wonder what percentage of deaths reported as being due to Corona virus are in fact deaths that would have happened anyway, but which Corona has "merely sped up".
nearly 90% of deaths are over +65 I believe, so most likely they would only live on average 10-15 years more depending on the country. But I don't think that question is fair or we would never fight for any +65 as it would "merely slow down" their deaths every time that they would receive any health treatment.
 
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And so what in effect is happening, is that, and this is obviously a very cold way of looking at things, but what's happening is that the economy is potentially being destroyed to prolong the lives of a few by months.
No.

The death rate goes up and lots of people who normally wouldn't die this year will due to not being able to receive the correct treatment. This includes plenty of people between 40-60. All this social distancing is about allowing the health services time to give everyone the chance they deserve.

I do agree on lockdown though, as much as I'm hated in here for it. As far as I'm aware Denmark and Germany have flattened the curve without telling people to stay inside their homes.
 

Dans

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nearly 90% of deaths are over +65 I believe, so most likely they would only live on average 10-15 years more depending on the country. But I don't think that question is fair or we would never fight for any +65 as it would "merely slow down" their deaths every time that they would receive any health treatment.
They might live 10-15 years longer if they were completely healthy before the caught the virus. If they weren't, then Corona or Flu or frankly in some cases, perhaps even a really bad cold would have potentially had the same outcome.
 

Dans

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No.

The death rate goes up and lots of people who normally wouldn't die this year will due to not being able to receive the correct treatment. This includes plenty of people between 40-60. All this social distancing is about allowing the health services time to give everyone the chance they deserve.
Yep, appreciate that, but I have seen daily death counts in the last 3 years for NL in the month of March and so far there's no difference. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next two weeks and how the numbers are then.
 

Dans

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I totally agree that any death is a tragedy and we should do our utmost to preserve life. This is also not about wanting to go back to the pub or go to the cinema. I could quite easily shelve all those unimportant things.

This is about having a life to lead after this (which in turn will save thousands of lives in itself due to significantly more people being able to feed their kids) 60% of business will fail if this goes on longer than short term. Do you even consider what world that would leave us with?

I have 2 neices who will miss out on a significant part of their education. Do you understand the implications of this further down the line?

Does anyone really understand the mental health aspect?

It's all very well talking about funding an NHS, but if no one can pay tax then who is going to fund it? Another country who has the same problem?

People seem to think that without lockdown until there is a vaccine that this disease is going to kill millions,l. It's simply not true and never has been. Yes, you get isolated sad cases and I feel the greatest sympathy

At some point caution becomes counter productive and won't only fail to protect the NHS and save lives, but do the total opposite.
This is exactly what I am afraid of. More so than I am of the virus itself, for myself or my elderly parents.
 
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Yep, appreciate that, but I have seen daily death counts in the last 3 years for NL in the month of March and so far there's no difference. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next two weeks and how the numbers are then.
As I say, if you avoid Italy and Spain situations, however you manage it then your are saving as many lives as possible. That’s surely the only important thing here.

What I find disturbing is the amount of people delighted for Derbyshire police trying to drone shame people for being out in the Peak District or getting angry about seeing people outside. It appears to be losing sight of what we are trying to achieve here.
 

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No.

The death rate goes up and lots of people who normally wouldn't die this year will due to not being able to receive the correct treatment. This includes plenty of people between 40-60. All this social distancing is about allowing the health services time to give everyone the chance they deserve.

I do agree on lockdown though, as much as I'm hated in here for it. As far as I'm aware Denmark and Germany have flattened the curve without telling people to stay inside their homes.
Germany closed down non essential businesses, told people to stay at home and forbade gatherings of more than two people. Basically at the same time most other European countries did it.
 

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I do agree on lockdown though, as much as I'm hated in here for it. As far as I'm aware Denmark and Germany have flattened the curve without telling people to stay inside their homes.
We're staying at home as well, only essential movement is allowed. Schools, Pubs, Shops are closed, same as everywhere else.

I agree that we can't be in lockdown for more than 4-6 weeks. Destroying the economy is at one point just too big a price. I expect that the discussion about tracking and isolating people similar to what South Korea and China did will get louder and louder. It's already there to some degree, but for now there's too much resistance to allow that kind of invasion into private and medical data. Sadly I believe it'll change once the damage for the economy becomes too big. I'm much more scared of that development than of the virus itself.
 

Cardboard elk

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Which makes sense, but how long does it have to be below 1.0 to as they say "disappear".
Thats where extensive testing and "detective" work to locate and isolate all new infections comes into play. Like what South Korea did, and also what Germany is pushing for now acc. to some articles at least.
This requires testing capacity that most countries do not have though. In Norway the government wants to do this, so they are now talking to many companys within various sectors to be able to increase testing capacity. We are already among the best at this but we need to increase to test much much more. All of this would make us able to gradually open up society. And then continue the test and search operation until a vaccine is available.

Btw, I see that today there is news in Norway that Sweden might have twice as many dead as have been reported? Is that correct? I don't understand how the reporting can be so off and the swedish press so late at discovering this :rolleyes: Maybe swedish press is finally awakening. You guys really need to toughen up restrictions now to avoid complete chaos in Stockholm at least.
 

nickm

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And so what in effect is happening, is that, and this is obviously a very cold way of looking at things, but what's happening is that the economy is potentially being destroyed to prolong the lives of a few by months.
Without the lockdown imperial forecast 510,000 deaths in the Uk. You want to defend that?
 

Brwned

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No.

The death rate goes up and lots of people who normally wouldn't die this year will due to not being able to receive the correct treatment. This includes plenty of people between 40-60. All this social distancing is about allowing the health services time to give everyone the chance they deserve.

I do agree on lockdown though, as much as I'm hated in here for it. As far as I'm aware Denmark and Germany have flattened the curve without telling people to stay inside their homes.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government has agreed with regional states to extend the nationwide lockdown aimed at slowing the spread of the coronavirus for another two weeks until April 19.

A little over a week after banning gatherings of more than two people, the government continues to ask Germans to avoid contact with people outside their own household, the chancellor said in a statement on Wednesday after speaking with the premiers of the country’s 16 states. The government wants to revisit those measures after Easter.
Germany are still on their own form of lockdown and 80% of people in Denmark are avoiding crowded public places, which is what people are criticising folks in the UK for not doing at the parks this weekend.

If you look at Google's mobility figures the numbers in Germany and the UK are very similar. 75-85% less time at retail and recreation locations, 75-80% less time in transit stations, 50% less time in parks.
 

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Yep, appreciate that, but I have seen daily death counts in the last 3 years for NL in the month of March and so far there's no difference. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next two weeks and how the numbers are then.
What about the knock-on effect of all the other healthcare put on hold because hospitals are overrun with Covid cases? There's an enormous health cost to people there too that would only be even worse without lockdown.
 

redshaw

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UK will probably relax the lockdown in June if not before but all we can do is look at the numbers and how many are in hospital but there's also the bigger picture to balance. I think with a different mindset, keeping distance, cleaning surfaces, large scale testing, antibody tests, maybe having masks available can help a lot in not having a huge second wave when back to work and more a manageable one for NHS. Still it's playing russian roulette for some out there of all age groups but lockdowns for 6-12 months I don't feel can happen.

I don't get this measure, why not enact it when the numbers were climbing rapidly a week or so ago? It seems like they're just trying to appear to do something.

All I sense is more face touching and difficulty breathing. Maybe it will further put people off going out unless vital.
Maybe they're looking for some data on it
 
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Btw, I see that today there is news in Norway that Sweden might have twice as many dead as have been reported? Is that correct? I don't understand how the reporting can be so off and the swedish press so late at discovering this :rolleyes: Maybe swedish press is finally awakening. You guys really need to toughen up restrictions now to avoid complete chaos in Stockholm at least.
I would guess it’s due to autopsy right? Most countries are struggling reporting numbers on home deaths and elderly nursing home deaths.

ICU per day in Stockholm has actually dropped the past couple of days so Älvsjö is not in use yet. Still think we’re at least another week away from stricter measures in Stockholm, and only if the ICU curve starts to look alarming.
ICU entry curve has been flat for some time, until that starts increasing I’d imagine they are pleased with the curve.
 
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Dans

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A few? W

Without the lockdown imperial forecast 510,000 deaths in the Uk. You want to defend that?
That strikes me as an unlikely worst case scenario. But, look, I agree with the lockdown, but for how long can any country keep it up? I have left my house once, yesterday, for more than just walk in 3 weeks. I am lucky that I have a job which I can do in home office and is still needed, but thousands upon thousands do not. Even that worst case scenario could look acceptable if a lockdown continues and more and more people lose their jobs and the economy goes into a deep recession which necessitates years of recovery and all that comes with that scenario. In the end, the choice is going to come down to let people die or save people's livelihoods and not destroy lives the world over for years to come.
 
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That strikes me as an unlikely worst case scenario. But, look, I agree with the lockdown, but for how long can any country keep it up? I have left my house once, yesterday, for more than just walk in 3 weeks. I am lucky that I have a job which I can do in home office and is still needed, but thousands upon thousands do not. Even that worst case scenario could look acceptable if a lockdown continues and more and more people lose their jobs and the economy goes into a deep recession which necessitates years of recovery and all that comes with that scenario. In the end, the choice is going to come down to let people die or save people's livelihoods and not destroy lives the world over for years to come.
I really don't think I've understood the plans after lockdown. Are people now saying that countries can chase it down after lockdown by tracking/tracing? How?

And if so, do countries then keep their borders shut for a year?

I thought there were only two ways out of this, a vaccine, or enough people being infected to build up a herd immunity. In the case of building it up, the most important thing is simply to ensure your health service doesn't get overwhelmed, but people are still focusing on total deaths, which in this case is completely irrelevant here.

And now I'm hearing about getting the R0 below 1 and then chasing it down. It that feasible? Can the UK for example lockdown for 6 weeks and then chase it down? I was under the impression that was completely impossible to due exponential growth, all you need is a few cases to slip the net and you're in the same situation again?

Anyone?
 

Striker10

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Seriously, wtf? This isn't about 'embracing authoritarianism' , it's about staying alive.
you are right. its simple. you close borders and then their is no pandemic......it would be that simple and should be but we will lose freedom. Maybe if people were not so dumb. The truth is money has humanity by the nuts and is the biggest threat because there is no common sense. That is why nation states must make their own money, destroy the current system which has overridden common sense but also those responsible will meet justice for their crimes against humanity. A pandemic is here because there is no defence against stupidity. You stop travel but it was allowed ....to spread. So lets deal with it but understand the failure is those in power who have dumbed people down and those who sold us out

It is up to the people....for once...to look at this objectively and to say we dont have to lose freedom and know what that means.This pandemic will be ridden for a good length of time yet. Lets see, what it costs people...
 
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you are right. its simple. you close borders and then their is no pandemic......it would be that simple and should be but we will lose freedom. Maybe if people were not so dumb. the truth is money has humanity by the nuts and is the biggest threat because there is no common sense. That is why nation states must make their own money, destroy the current system which has overridden common sense but also those responsible will meet justice for their crimes against humanity.
Not sure if serious?

Not quite sure what you're suggesting either.
 

Brwned

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That strikes me as an unlikely worst case scenario. But, look, I agree with the lockdown, but for how long can any country keep it up? I have left my house once, yesterday, for more than just walk in 3 weeks. I am lucky that I have a job which I can do in home office and is still needed, but thousands upon thousands do not. Even that worst case scenario could look acceptable if a lockdown continues and more and more people lose their jobs and the economy goes into a deep recession which necessitates years of recovery and all that comes with that scenario. In the end, the choice is going to come down to let people die or save people livelihoods and not destroy lives the world over for years to come.
You're looking at it from the German perspective, but in reality the UK is in a different world on this.

The major concern is about overloading the healthcare system past its breaking point. The UK has 4,500 ICU beds, Germany has 24,500 beds. Based on a study in Wuhan, about 5% of cases require ICU beds, so Germany has the capacity to manage 490,000 typical cases (50x what they currently have) while the UK has the capacity to manage 90,000 typical cases (a little over double what they currently have). On top of that the UK has a shortage of PPE and testing capacity, leading to many more doctors ill or self-isolating and reducing the peak demand they can manage. The UK had no alternative because the infrastructure in place was dramatically inferior to Germany.

We already have hospitals urging people not to go there because they have severe resource shortages. On lockdown. Surely everyone could see that would be happening on a much wider scale if not for the lockdown. It wouldn't simply have been a few old people losing a few months of their lives. It's the healthcare system that's at risk.

If we had 25,000 ICU beds then we would be able to cope without a lockdown, as per this graph on the top-left from Imperial's modelling. Instead, because the ICU capacity is 5x lower, even with the most risky approach to suppression we will need to be in intermittent lockdown for 6 of the next 18 months, 1 month on, 2 months off.



Germany does have 25,000 ICU beds so they have more choice in that regard.
 

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The most concerning thing about this pandemic is how readily people will embrace authoritarianism.

As long as they feel good about themselves.
People will embrace it if they feel it’s for the greater good, and clearly that’s the case.

I take it you don’t agree with lockdowns?
 

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I wonder what percentage of deaths reported as being due to Corona virus are in fact deaths that would have happened anyway, but which Corona has "merely sped up".
Sky were doing a comparison of average daily deaths from previous years compared to this year and UK uptill yesterday was within the average daily death graphs. Spain was exceeding their daily death graphs. It would be interesting to do this for every country.
 

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As I say, if you avoid Italy and Spain situations, however you manage it then your are saving as many lives as possible. That’s surely the only important thing here.

What I find disturbing is the amount of people delighted for Derbyshire police trying to drone shame people for being out in the Peak District or getting angry about seeing people outside. It appears to be losing sight of what we are trying to achieve here.
I’m actually with you on the outdoors thing. I honestly think that the chances of being infected by someone else walking nearby in a park are miniscule. And there’s a lot of hysteria on social media about people spending time outdoors that irritates me.

That said, you could argue that it’s a slippery slope. The more people continue hanging around in groups outdoors the less diligent they will get about the basics. Washing hands, being careful about sneezing etc Having this weird, shitty situation where you might get dirty looks for not crossing the road for avoiding someone helps keep the important stuff front and centre in everyone’s mind. So it’s a price worth paying.