SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

sullydnl

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Sully, people can travel to a Summer house and successfully isolate and take no risks.

Yes or No?
A very tiny minority might be able to, provided they don't require any emergency attention in a situation where they may already be infected with a virus. Why you would assume she belongs to this tiny minority based on absolutely nothing, I have no idea.

Also, unsurprisingly, the rules aren't put in place to suit the whims of a tiny minority.

Also, if you're going to argue that a given person is clever enough to isolate in a way that avoids all contact with the outside world for weeks on end in defiance of the rules, maybe don't pick the CMO who was stupid enough to be almost immediately caught publicly flaunting her own rules.
 

JMack1234

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I too find it shocking that the majority of people are actively acting in other people's interest.
I find it heartening that people are acting in others interests.

I've been observing the restrictions religiously. Despite thinking it's quite the overreaction myself, whenever I go to the supermarket (as infrequently as possible) there are people who are very obviously terrified.

Yet the way you've phrased that reply betrays quite the misunderstanding. People are not acting in other peoples interests. People are being forced to act in what Johnson believes in their interests or they'll face the consequences. Quite the difference.
 

fergieisold

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Ask those in Southern Italy if people going from highly infected areas into areas with a lessened healthcare system to stay in their second homes is a problem or not.
Depends on the person. If I had a second home and visited it I'd be isolating myself so not an issue. People are dumb though.

How is a rule about no unnecessary travel stupid?

What happens if you have a car accident? You're tying up resource very selfishly.

How do you think this virus spread? Through people travelling. Cut down travel you cut down the spread.

Are you one of the sunbathers? Are you going out doing your usual? Why not? Because youve accepted the risks and taken a reasonable decision to do your bit.

That's what this health woman should have done. Especially as she's instructing people to!
You don't spread a virus driving your car, if she literally only visited her second home it isn't an issue (outside of her being health minister). People hitting busy beaches and parks are the idiots I'd worry about.
 

Balu

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Sully, people can travel to a Summer house and successfully isolate and take no risks.

Yes or No?
Obviously no. It's a really easy question to answer once you look at the bigger picture rather than take each case on its own. If one travels to a summer house, it's unlikely the risk increases. If thousands do it, the risks at gas stations increase massively. More people need to fill up, more people will have their cars break down and need service. More accidents happen on the streets which means there's need for first aid and medical help.

The risks of all these factors might be minor if you look at one case. But you can't look at it that way. As a role model for the public, it's completely irresponsible to act that way. Even if you're against the lockdown, it doesn't make any sense to defend her actions.
 
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Except she is the Chief Medical officer, the rules are simple. If she is flouting those rules regardless of how unlikely it is she'll harm someone by doing this.
Other people will look to her example and think, well 'I'll do this and I'll do that, she's the Chief Medical officer, I'll just go to the beach not harming anyone right?

Then record numbers at the fecking beach because everyone has the same idea.
Akin to what happened the weekend before the lockdown.
Someone going to their Summer house and following all the recommendations of social distancing is nothing like people going to a crowded beach and thinking "feck it, that medical officer lady went to her Summer house".

The crowded beach lot would be utter fecking morons.

So back to my point, I guess I have more faith that the majority of people aren't fecking morons and I'm not gonna get anywhere in this debate. Fledgling actually reckons I'm saying stuff that "will kill people", that's how worked up some people are in here.

Keep social distance and you'll save lives, go to a packed beach and you're a fecking imbecile.
 
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Obviously no. It's a really easy question to answer once you look at the bigger picture rather than take each case on its own. If one travels to a summer house, it's unlikely the risk increases. If thousands do it, the risks at gas stations increase massively. More people need to fill up, more people will have their cars break down and need service. More accidents happen on the streets which means there's need for first aid and medical help.

The risks of all these factors might be minor if you look at one case. But you can't look at it that way. As a role model for the public, it's completely irresponsible to act that way. Even if you're against the lockdown, it doesn't make any sense to defend her actions.
That's a well put together argument.

I'm not against the UK lockdown at all, I think it was likely a smart move looking at the numbers.
 

Sandikan

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Depends on the person. If I had a second home and visited it I'd be isolating myself so not an issue. People are dumb though.



You don't spread a virus driving your car, if she literally only visited her second home it isn't an issue (outside of her being health minister). People hitting busy beaches and parks are the idiots I'd worry about.
It's a big "if" that she doesn't crash her car, doesn't fuel it. Doesn't buy food.
It's unnecessary travel which is what the experts (apparently herself included) are instructing people to do.

If it's not followed by her, why should anyone follow it?
 
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Why bother though. That's the point.
Because bolting down in your Summer house is easier to isolate than in the City? Easier to maintain social distance from there?

We live in a small but densely populated town in North of Stockholm, my 70+ neighbours decided last week to drive North to their Summer house as they can isolate sooooo much better there. They have everything they need with them and are being responsible citizens doing so.

But some on here would hate them for it I guess?
 

Sandikan

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Someone going to their Summer house and following all the recommendations of social distancing is nothing like people going to a crowded beach and thinking "feck it, that medical officer lady went to her Summer house".

The crowded beach lot would be utter fecking morons.

So back to my point, I guess I have more faith that the majority of people aren't fecking morons and I'm not gonna get anywhere in this debate. Fledgling actually reckons I'm saying stuff that "will kill people", that's how worked up some people are in here.

Keep social distance and you'll save lives, go to a packed beach and you're a fecking imbecile.
You keep social distance by cutting unnecessary travel..simple as that.

Whether you "could" avoid risk doesn't matter. Otherwise we wouldn't even bother with a lockdown.
 

fergieisold

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It's a big "if" that she doesn't crash her car, doesn't fuel it. Doesn't buy food.
It's unnecessary travel which is what the experts (apparently herself included) are instructing people to do.

If it's not followed by her, why should anyone follow it?
Fair point. I think if I did own a second home somewhere isolated I'd likely have jumped ship before the lockdown. Then again I live in Saddleworth so it is fairly quiet vs the city up here in the hills!
 

JMack1234

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My gut feeling is whenever you see anybody complaining about people policing the lockdown it's because they were out doing it themselves and don't want to be made to feel bad for it. I get everyone is bored and fractious, which is why I cant help get irate with people who can't do what they're told and whose going to make us stay inside Ionger.
I think the policing of this lockdown has been heavy handed and at times seriously concerning but I've been following the lockdown religiously .

Obviously I can't prove this on here, but I live in a semi-rural area and have a good sized garden so there's no need for me to sun bathe in a park etc.

I just want to take issue with the last part of the statement. It's not the people sunbathing who'll get us put inside longer. It's Johnson, it's a political choice. The idea of a collective punishment on the nation because a few people are laying down on some grass in the middle of London is a nonsense. This isn't a Y8 maths class, this should be a mature Liberal Democracy.Should be...
 

NinjaFletch

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I think the policing of this lockdown has been heavy handed and at times seriously concerning but I've been following the lockdown religiously .

Obviously I can't prove this on here, but I live in a semi-rural area and have a good sized garden so there's no need for me to sun bathe in a park etc.

I just want to take issue with the last part of the statement. It's not the people sunbathing who'll get us put inside longer. It's Johnson, it's a political choice. The idea of a collective punishment on the nation because a few people are laying down on some grass in the middle of London is a nonsense. This isn't a Y8 maths class, this should be a mature Liberal Democracy.Should be...
It's not a 'punishment' it would be a failure to ensure the drop in the number of cases that would allow us to ease measures.

Imbeciles sitting drinking beer in the park, sunbathing, driving to the beach and nd all manner of things we saw yesterday spread the virus and the more they do it the longer we're all inside.
 

Garethw

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I saw this on social media a few days back and it couldn’t be more true.

“The virus doesn’t move, people move it. We stop moving, the virus stops moving, the virus dies. It’s that simple”

We have bred a generation of cnuts. Absolute cnuts that don’t think that rules apply to them.

We are heading for a full lockdown in the UK because the minority are a selfish bunch of cnuts that don’t think that rules apply to them.

Just stay at home for a few fecking weeks! Why is it so hard to understand?
 

Josep Dowling

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So she went out in the open and stayed away from everyone. Ok.

Look, if that pisses you off, so be it, but I think there's plenty of other more common sense things to be pissed off about that actual do carry risks.
She’s providing the advice and telling people to stay at home. She then unnecessary travels to her second home. Isolated or not that’s incredibly hypocritical and will make others think it’s okay to do that. There is no way the likes of Cornwall and Devon could cope with the virus if it’s spread by rich idiots from London wanting a week in their second homes. After all at some point they will need food which will mean a trip to the supermarket. It could easily spread at that point.
 

sullydnl

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Why only a tiny minority? I could easily head up to a summer house now, do a big shop before hand in my nearest local shop, and go out exercising in the open air away from people.

Why couldn't a large majority of second home owners manage that Sully?
Because we can see from the example of nearly everyone else in the country who is currently trying to isolate that supplies and support from the outside world are still often required. There's a reason people who are being cocooned are getting support structures put in place to assist them in staying isolated, it's an extremely difficult thing to do on your own and an extremely difficult thing to plan for when you don't know what the coming weeks/months will hold.

Yet for someone reason you've assumed she belongs to the group of people who could manage it. Even though she's already demonstrated her own lack of common sense by putting herself in a position where people are calling for her to resign, even though there's no way of knowing if she or any members of her family are already infected and may shortly need medical attention and even though she's already been photographed traipsing across the local golf course with her family. Even she hasn't said she was intending to isolate in the way you're imagining she was.

Also, given she's a Chief Medical Officer in the middle of a pandemic, one suspects she wasn't going to be working from home for the next several months.

Your argument is that she might have done something extremely difficult to do that we already know for a fact she hasn't done, which you're making in defence of common sense. That's what we call irony.
 
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Josep Dowling

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I saw this on social media a few days back and it couldn’t be more true.

The virus doesn’t move, people move it. We stop moving, the virus stops moving, the virus dies. It’s that simple”

We have bred a generation of cnuts. Absolute cnuts that don’t think that rules apply to them.

We are heading for a full lockdown in the UK because the minority are a selfish bunch of cnuts that don’t think that rules apply to them.

Just stay at home for a few fecking weeks! Why is it so hard to understand?
Bit over the top. There is a small fraction of the UK population ignoring the rules and there always will be, that’s how society works.
 

Josep Dowling

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The problem is, even a small fraction can spread the virus a lot.
Yes but he was blaming a generation, my generation for being the problem. From my own experience it seems to be the 40-60 year old age group taking less notice than most.
 

FootballHQ

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Wasn't it said in one of the press conferences this week they were confident the RO number was just below 1 now? So big success for the lockdown although inevitably another one will have to be introduced when this finishes next Monday.
 

Penna

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I think the second home issue is several-fold. First it reminds people of the fact that some folk are rich enough to keep a second residence in a scenic area, which is another irritation for those who are having to stay in far less comfortable accommodation in cities.

Secondly, right from the beginning the authorities in more rural areas have been begging people not to come to their second homes just because they can - it increases the number of people having to use scarcer local resources and worst of all, if they need healthcare the local hospitals may not be able to cope with extra numbers. It's not just people who own two homes, as weeks ago we saw people going up to Scotland and parking up in their caravans and camper vans. Luckily that was stopped quickly by closing the car parks in those rural areas and also the caravan and camping sites were soon shut.

Thirdly (as other have pointed out), it gives a very bad message when you see public figures/members of governments choosing to move out to their second homes. People in authority have to lead by example in times like these, even if it's against their own self-interest to do so.
 
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Ekkie Thump

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@Brwned in the Imperial modelling, what percentage of infected do they imagine require hospital attention and ICU attention?

They don't specify ICU attention but these are the figures for hospitalisation:



I'd imagine if they're using the early Chinese figures then they'd be using the same 5% ICU figure from this.
The assumption seems to have been that 4.4% of infections result in hospitalisation and just under 1.47% of infections require critical care (defined as at least invasive mechanical ventilation):

The age-stratified proportion of infections that require hospitalisation and the infection fatality ratio (IFR) were obtained from an analysis of a subset of cases from China (12) . These estimates were corrected for non-uniform attack rates by age and when applied to the GB population result in an IFR of 0.9% with 4.4% of infections hospitalised (Table 1). We assume that 30% of those that are hospitalised will require critical care (invasive mechanical ventilation or ECMO) based on early reports from COVID-19 cases in the UK, China and Italy (Professor Nicholas Hart, personal communication). Based on expert clinical opinion, we assume that 50% of those in critical care will die and an age-dependent proportion of those that do not require critical care die (calculated to match the overall IFR). We calculate bed demand numbers assuming a total duration of stay in hospital of 8 days if critical care is not required and 16 days (with 10 days in ICU) if critical care is required.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
The study does promise to update these assumptions in the light of new data, but I don't know if they've done so as of yet.
 

ryansgirl

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Forget china. Look at south korea, japan, singapore. Good government can mitigate the outbreak.

It's not wizardry. Their government instruct, citizen follow, results shows.

Nobody has the magic formula, it's just a collection of small things done right.
No, don`t forget China. It`s the most secretive and dictatorial government in the world and more so than North Korea because its economic power allows it be part of the international business community. No mass graves? They don`t need them - they have cremation as is common in many countries in Asia. They need more urns and more urns have been noted. The great firewall of China is their friend - the internet in some ways is completely unrecognisable in China from our perspective.

Another secretive country that is generally a democracy although it has some surprisingly authoritarian aspects when you know its legal system and live here is Japan.

Forget Japan among the exemplars - if you believe Japan deserves to be listed with the other countries re COVID-19 for good government that includes transparency of policy and information, a health system whose experts are given media freedom to speak openly. politicians being truthful and not concealing data and genuine means to get this pandemic under control such as increasing testing and then isolation of the
infected, then you are very much mistaken.

I`m in Tokyo and I expect there to be many more cases here and everywhere except the most isolated parts of the archipelago that is Japan. Apparently `now` the numbers for all Japan are over 4,000 with under 100 deaths. And guess what? They`re increasing in a linear way according to the national govt`s data fudgers, er statisticians. So Japan doesn`t have exponential increases. Apparently.

The answer to all this nonsense about putting Japan with responsible countries is simple - criminally low testing numbers. The policy is to refuse testing except if you have pneumonia. There are exceptions now such as Japanese nationals returning from abroad. There are a few exceptions in some prefectures.

The Tokyo Olympics were the biggest stand-alone reason this shit-show has been allowed to develop but of course medical cartels, media cartels, a disgraceful right wing government and a shambles of opposition parties, lack of an active participation in political discussion and debate among the Japanese public, in some cases a sense of superiority that Japanese somehow wouldn`t have any real problem with the virus because they are `cleaner`, etc, have actively repressed responsible measures.

Surprise, surprise - increasing clusters have formed around so-called entertainment areas commonly located throughout urban Japan near major railway stations. The sex industry there often functions as quickie sex breaks for male company employees during the day and then after work. . Now we hear the virus is increasingly showing up in a younger demographic - unsurprising considering the complacency that set in during the latter part of February.

Of course it is also connected to international travel with Japanese just like other countries` people refusing to change or cancel their plans. Less understandable to me is why a significant number of them decided to get their jollies in Italy, Spain and France despite having earlier information on COVID-19`s rampant spread there.

Grossly deflated case numbers because of minimal testing caused many in Tokyo especially to lower their guard unlike in January and most of February although some attractions and bars, cafes and clubs stayed shuttered.

In the middle of March I was astonished to see university students over-crowding popular areas and then at night time when coming home from work, young and not so young company employees, many drunk, laughing and spraying their saliva around on crowded Yamanote Loop Line stations. This is the main Tokyo line that runs around the city. That scene is not unusual in normal times but it shouldn`t have gone on the way it did in these times.

Elderly people were riding subways and trains for something to do during the daytime because a number of community centres for the elderly had closed amidst earlier virus fears. As March progressed those with more money started taking weekday and weekend trips on the lines leading from Tokyo to the surrounding prefectures. The Tokyo Olympics hadn`t been cancelled yet.

People staying home last weekend and this present weekend in response to the Tokyo Governor`s call - credit to many Tokyoites for doing that - cannot reverse the damage done not only from the carelessness and complacency that set in but the basic reason for it. And that is the Japan`s Government`s refusal to conduct any real testing which would enable them to isolate quickly and track cases and potential cases. And of course now as the more realistic figures although highly likely under-reported are coming out in the unique Japanese linear way instead of exponential way, another `surprise` is the inability to track a significant number of cases and potential cases.

Japan is not an outlier - it`s an out and out liar.
 
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T00lsh3d

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Iran’s death curve is bizarre (if you believe the numbers, which I don’t). They were one of the first countries to be hit hard but their deaths have plateaued around the 100-150 mark for weeks now.
 

Fully Fledged

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I think the second home issue is several-fold. First it reminds people of the fact that some folk are rich enough to keep a second residence in a scenic area, which is another irritation for those who are having to stay in far less comfortable accommodation in cities.

Secondly, right from the beginning the authorities in more rural areas have been begging people not to come to their second homes just because they can - it increases the number of people having to use scarcer local resources and worst of all, if they need healthcare the local hospitals may not be able to cope with extra numbers. It's not just people who own two homes, as weeks ago we saw people going up to Scotland and parking up in their caravans and camper vans. Luckily that was stopped quickly by closing the car parks in those rural areas and also the caravan and camping sites were soon shut.

Thirdly (as other have pointed out), it gives a very bad message when you see public figures/members of governments choosing to move out to their second homes. People in authority have to lead by example in times like these, even if it's against their own self-interest to do so.
Exactly.
 

vidic blood & sand

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I saw this on social media a few days back and it couldn’t be more true.

“The virus doesn’t move, people move it. We stop moving, the virus stops moving, the virus dies. It’s that simple”

We have bred a generation of cnuts. Absolute cnuts that don’t think that rules apply to them.

We are heading for a full lockdown in the UK because the minority are a selfish bunch of cnuts that don’t think that rules apply to them.

Just stay at home for a few fecking weeks! Why is it so hard to understand?
I doubt there'll be a full lockdown. Hancock is just using fear tactics, along with the threat of collective punishment. Collective punishment was used in schools when I was a kid. Not sure if it still is.
One kid misbehaves, and the whole class stays behind. The threat of collective punishment is supposed to make all of us police the situation ourselves.
Exercise is just as important to health as social distancing.
 

Balljy

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I'd hope that people could be clever enough to travel to a second home and take zero risks. I guess maybe I have more faith in humanity than they probably deserve judging by this thread.
Then your car breaks down or you have an accident on the way and have to involve the emergency services. The rule is deliberately made simple as people would look for any excuse otherwise.
 

JMack1234

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It's not a 'punishment' it would be a failure to ensure the drop in the number of cases that would allow us to ease measures.

Imbeciles sitting drinking beer in the park, sunbathing, driving to the beach and nd all manner of things we saw yesterday spread the virus and the more they do it the longer we're all inside.
And what % is that of the population? It's a totally insignificant part of the population blown totally out of all proportion.
 

Sarni

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That's exactly what my mother says and she's a famed drama queen.

We might not be able to travel abroad for a few years as often as we did before and the Government will need to support small businesses that might be in financial difficulty since the lockdown occurred but humans are extremely resourceful and most people in our society will be determined to kick start the country again. It might actually give us a kick up the arse to respect what we have.
Indeed. Nothing will be remotely the same for the next 2 years at least but we will gradually get back to normal and it will save lives.
 

JMack1234

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I saw this on social media a few days back and it couldn’t be more true.

“The virus doesn’t move, people move it. We stop moving, the virus stops moving, the virus dies. It’s that simple”

We have bred a generation of cnuts. Absolute cnuts that don’t think that rules apply to them.

We are heading for a full lockdown in the UK because the minority are a selfish bunch of cnuts that don’t think that rules apply to them.

Just stay at home for a few fecking weeks! Why is it so hard to understand?
No we're not. If we're heading for full lockdown (I'd doubt it) it's because the government wish it to be so. Not because some people are laying on the some grass, whilst observing social distancing.
 

sullydnl

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And what % is that of the population? It's a totally insignificant part of the population blown totally out of all proportion.

In reality it doesn't have to be a large percentage of the population to have a disproportionate impact.
 
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Bit over the top. There is a small fraction of the UK population ignoring the rules and there always will be, that’s how society works.
We currently have the most selfish society that’s ever walked the earth. This virus has shown us that.

The police can’t police everyone, they should make an example of some of these idiot and lock some of them up for a week and start really fining them. When will they learn, probably only when they know someone who does.
 

Raoul

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Iran’s death curve is bizarre (if you believe the numbers, which I don’t). They were one of the first countries to be hit hard but their deaths have plateaued around the 100-150 mark for weeks now.
I take numbers out of authoritarian states with a pinch of salt. The autocrats who run some of these countries obviously have the luxury of suppressing data to avoid looking inept and create the facade of stability. That said, the likes of South Korea, Japan, and others have also been stabilizing so there's a good chance Iran wouldn't be too far behind them.
 

JMack1234

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In reality it doesn't have to be a large percentage of the population to have a disproportionate impact.
Yes people in the UK go to parks more than people in France, Italy and Spain because the government has allowed this as long as social distancing is observed.
 

Penna

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In reality it doesn't have to be a large percentage of the population to have a disproportionate impact.
You have to shut parks and public gardens. If they're open and the sun's shining, some people will see that as an invitation. They acted quickly to shut all possible public gathering-places in Italy when it became obvious that some people were still going to them to socialise unnecessarily.
 

JMack1234

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We currently have the most selfish society that’s ever walked the earth. This virus has shown us that.

The police can’t police everyone, they should make an example of some of these idiot and lock some of them up for a week and start really fining them. When will they learn, probably only when they know someone who does.
Bordering on hysterical. Voice of a nation there.