SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Blackwidow]

Diamond Princess more or less rules that out. 1.5% mortality rate (everyone was tested) with an extreme age shift.

The number of people on that ship is too low to use it statistically. And the (older) people on that boat do not replicate the average people.

 

[Im red2]

This is actually one of the most braindead video that I have seen. Starting with deaths estimates, she probabaly missed the part where measures have been taken to limit infections which means that the worst estimations will be lower than if we did nothing, the rest is just way too stupid, you would swear that she can't fathom the idea that pandemics have already happened in human history, creating a scenario around one doesn't require to be a genius or a machiavel, it just requires to have a functioning brain.

You watched video 36 minutes long in 13 minutes well done

 

[senorgregster]

Apologies if posted. The serosurveillance study out of Santa Clara came back at around 3% positive.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf

The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50- 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.

 

[Revan]

Apologies if posted. The serosurveillance study out of Santa Clara came back at around 3% positive.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf

The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50- 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.

feck was expecting a bit more than this.

But then it might mean that heavy-hit places like New York or Italy/Spain might have a bit more. I think Italy is guesstimating to have 10% of the population who have been infected.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Just shy of 2%. One of the 14 deaths isn't officially recorded. I *think* it's the Australian that died in Perth on 1st of March, while the others all died in Japan.

It’s a small sample. Unlikely to be representative of the world as a whole. Oldish but presumably reasonably fit/mobile. How many with co-morbidities? How many BAME? The main thing is, in that enclosed sample, the CFR is bordering on 2%. If we half that (which is conservative) it’s still a horrendous mortality rate.

 

[Compton22]

Apologies if posted. The serosurveillance study out of Santa Clara came back at around 3% positive.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf

The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50- 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.

That's a significant amount if applied to the rest of the population. The problem is that it is only going to apply like that to heavily infected areas. Having said that, it does suggest a good portion of the population have or have had it.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

feck was expecting a bit more than this.

But then it might mean that heavy-hit places like New York or Italy/Spain might have a bit more. I think Italy is guesstimating to have 10% of the population who have been infected.

That’s consistent with the serology testing from blood donors in European countries. 1.5%. This fecking thing kills 1 in 100 people it infects. The idea that we’d find 10-30% of the population of an entire country already infected was always a pipe dream. The death toll from that would be astronomical.

 

[Revan]

That’s consistent with the serology testing from blood donors in European countries. 1.5%. This fecking thing kills 1 in 100 people it infects. The idea that we’d find 10-30% of the population of an entire country already infected was always a pipe dream. The death toll from that would be astronomical.

I think it is less than that, but yep, it could well be in that region.

My hope was more based on Stockholm/New York's testing of women giving birth when they found something like 12% or so of them being infected (naturally, more would have been infected and have healed by the time of the testing).

 

[redshaw]

You watched video 36 minutes long in 13 minutes well done

Have you seen her other content? She's quite the conspiracy nut talking about fake shootings, new world order etc, the whole nine yards.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

It’s a small sample. Unlikely to be representative of the world as a whole. Oldish but presumably reasonably fit/mobile. How many with co-morbidities? How many BAME? The main thing is, in that enclosed sample, the CFR is bordering on 2%. If we half that (which is conservative) it’s still a horrendous mortality rate.

I agree with all of that.

 

[Revan]

That's a significant amount if applied to the rest of the population. The problem is that it is only going to apply like that to heavily infected areas. Having said that, it does suggest a good portion of the population have or have had it.

Santa Clara is not heavily infected. Only 69 deaths in a population of around 2 million people. For capita, it is the sixth heavily infected county in California (which is nowhere as much infected as some other US states). It helps a lot that it is quite suburban (except San Jose, but even San Jose looks much less densely populated than San Francisco, despite more people living in San Jose), and a lot of people work in tech companies, which issued work from home recommendations at the beginning/middle of March and orders a week later.

I think that the number of infected in more hit areas like New York in the US, or Bergamo in Italy is significantly higher.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I’m aware I’m being a massive negative nelly so a more positive ways to interpret the low % of infection as per serology testing would be the possible role of T-cell mediated immunity? Which could fight infection without generating the circulating antibodies you need for serological testing (based on my pre-med memories of immunology lectures - fully prepared to be schooled by an actual expert here!)

And I also wonder if some people have an inherent immunity despite no previous exposure. That’s got to be possible, right? 712 infections out of 3000 people on the Diamond Princess - when we know how insanely transmissable this cnut is - would raise that possibility, surely?

 

[Revan]

It’s a small sample. Unlikely to be representative of the world as a whole. Oldish but presumably reasonably fit/mobile. How many with co-morbidities? How many BAME? The main thing is, in that enclosed sample, the CFR is bordering on 2%. If we half that (which is conservative) it’s still a horrendous mortality rate.

Based on what?

It is not only oldish, but it is also literally twice the median age of the world population. So, it had a really old population. The age median of passengers (where I believe all the victims occurred, correct me if I am wrong) was 68 years old. Many countries have an average life expectancy lower than that. The world's age median is 28, some African countries have it at 20 or so.

I think it is probably 1/4 of that (same as Iceland). To expect a larger under-representation of deaths compared with infections is very pessimistic. Sure, there are under-represented deaths, but even with symptoms it is still hard to get a test, so the denumerator is more under-reported than the numerator.

Finally, even 0.5% mortality is a horrendous number for such an infectious disease. The flu kills half a million people worldwide, and it has an R of 1.3. This has an R > 2.5 (probably > 5) while being probably 5 times as deadly. For herd immunity, we need 70% of the world's population getting infected, with a 0.5% death rate, which is 27 million deaths. And there is every reason to expect that the immunity created by this is probably from a few months to a couple of years or so (similar to that of the other coronaviruses), so that number would be for each year (unless we get a vaccine or strong anti-virals).

 

[JPRouve]

You watched video 36 minutes long in 13 minutes well done

I don't need to watch 36 minutes, she didn't magically become smart between the moment she failed to set the context during the first 3 minutes and the moment she describes the document from the Rockefeller foundation, I mean go to 23:40 and think about what she is questioning, she reads an historical facts and acts as if technology wasn't and hasn't had a -positive and negative- transformative role in Healthcare, Agriculture, housing, climate change and education she tries to turn a fact into a conspiracy. A question who told her that Covid-19 infection rate isn't possible? It's not even close to be the most contagious virus that we know.

She basically states current facts like government being designed to control, the fact that technology can and will help control masses and is often driven by states particularly when it comes to health, safety and security. These are all facts that are not part of a conspiracy that's literally part of the official roles of a government but it's probably difficult to understand when you are dumb and libertarian, I hope that she realizes that this video was done with the early help of DARPA, her mind would explode.

 

[Compton22]

I’m aware I’m being a massive negative nelly so a more positive ways to interpret the low % of infection as per serology testing would be the possible role of T cell mediate immunity? Which could fight infection without generating the circulating antibodies you need for serological testing (based on my pre-med memories of immunology lectures - fully prepared to be schooled by an actual expert here!)

And I also wonder if some people have an inherent immunity despite no previous exposure. That’s got to be possible, right? 712 infections out of 3000 people on the Diamond Princess when we know how insanely transmissable this cnut is would raise that possibility, surely?

You're right about the T-cells, they store memory of the virus when they engulf the virus, its structure and the RNA inside it. Plus, since a large percentage of cases are mild and even asymptomatic, this would mean a reduced production of antibodies, maybe even negligible enough to not show on a test.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Based on what?

It is not only oldish, but it is also literally twice the median age of the world population. So, it had a really old population. The age median of passengers (where I believe all the victims occurred, correct me if I am wrong) was 68 years old.

3000 people on the boat. 2000 passengers. Median age of passengers was 69. 1000 crew. Median age of crew was 36. Someone else can do the maths but that would have to overall median between 45 and 55. Which is not massively out of whack with most European countries. Maybe 10 years older?

 

[Revan]

3000 people on the boat. 2000 passengers. Median age of passengers was 69. 1000 crew. Median age of crew was 36. Someone else can do the maths but that would have to overall median between 45 and 55. Which is not massively out of whack with most European countries. Maybe 10 years older?

Hard to know. I used the median as a proxy for the mean (which is obviously wrong, but I don't know the mean). 10 years older is quite a lot though, and I was talking all the time about the CRF of the world.

Additionally, it is more interesting IMO to check the number of the very old (for whom the fatality is > 10%), and those of under 20 for whom the fatality rate is very close to 0. The first group was really over-represented there, while the second group was very under-represented. There is not enough data in either case, but Diamond Princess is even worse than the possible worst-case scenario for the fatality rate.

I think Iceland is a bit more realistic. 0.5% fatality rate, not many people getting recently infected, only 6 people in serious/critical condition. We can expect the fatality rate to go a bit higher when new deaths happen, but I think this balances those who are infected but not tested (and yes, even in Iceland, I think there should be some of them). I like to believe that the fatality rate worldwide has to be even lower than that, mostly considering that the world's population is even younger than Iceland's. Though most of those countries seem to have a bad medical system, which will probably remove the advantage of the young population.

 

[Blackwidow]

The group that usually has the highest risk on is the most interesting on this ship.

The 70 or 75+ on this boat are - in difference to people in the normal society - much fitter and wealthier. If you aren't you do not go on such a trip!

 

[JPRouve]

The group that usually has the highest risk on is the most interesting on this ship.

The 70 or 75+ on this boat are - in difference to people in the normal society - much fitter and wealthier. If you aren't you do not go on such a trip!

That's a good point. It would also be interesting to know who has diagnosed heart conditions and diabetes on the ship because not all the +70 are at a very high risk.

 

[4bars]

We can't compare the ship mortality with the rest of the world for many reasons. Not only the median of their age, but because they had all the care of the Japanese health care system, while in the rest of the world, being young, they will have in many countries way less access to a decent health care treatment. I read that in 1 country in Africa (I don't recall the name), they had 1 respirator for the whole country. Also...PPE? I doubt it, other relieve medicines? Simple oxigen masks? skilled health care workers? access to health care workers? Underline conditions like nutrition, immunodepressives and other illnesses?. Also might have other advantages like less mobility, clima, etc...

But if any of the non develop countries gets the spread that western countries have, they will most likely have a way higher mortality rate than 2%

 

[Camy89]

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Absolute fecking shit show.

 

[Pexbo]

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Absolute fecking shit show.

They need to stop using it unnecessarily

 

[Camy89]

They need to stop using it unnecessarily

I refuse to bite. Don't even.

 

[Dr. StrangeHate]

WHO pissing over everyone's chips.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/who...no-evidence-antibody-tests-show-immunity.html

 

[4bars]

WHO pissing over everyone's chips.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/who...no-evidence-antibody-tests-show-immunity.html

But is true. There are several corona virus (if not all?) that we don't have immunity and we keep getting it over and over during all our lives. I don't know why this should be different. Herd immunity and vaccine might never happen and we will need to live with the risk of dying or our loved ones dying in a daily basis

 

[Revan]

The group that usually has the highest risk on is the most interesting on this ship.

The 70 or 75+ on this boat are - in difference to people in the normal society - much fitter and wealthier. If you aren't you do not go on such a trip!

Wealthier probably yes (not necessarily by much), fitter, I have no idea why would that be the case.

 

[T00lsh3d]

Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus
The president of Belarus not only claims to be able to defeat Covid-19 through positive thinking, but also the ability to travel back in time.
“No one will die of coronavirus in our country. I publicly declare this,” Mr Lukashenko said on Monday. His health ministry had already confirmed 29 deaths from the virus.
The 65-year-old Mr Lukashenko, who has ruled the former Soviet state for 26 years, has described the global pandemic as a “psychosis” and has refused to impose social distancing measures on his 9.5m people.

Belarusians should instead play ice hockey, drive tractors, use the sauna, drink vodka and pet baby goats to protect themselves from the virus, Mr Lukashenko has claimed. “If a person stays positive, they will be healthy,” he said.

 

[Revan]

But is true. There are several corona virus (if not all?) that we don't have immunity and we keep getting it over and over during all our lives. I don't know why this should be different. Herd immunity and vaccine might never happen and we will need to live with the risk of dying or our loved ones dying in a daily basis

I thought that we get immunity for human coronaviruses, at least for a few months. And for the novel ones, for MERS the antibodies ceased to exist after a year, while for SARS, it was around 3 years. So why should this have zero immunity?

 

[JPRouve]

Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus
The president of Belarus not only claims to be able to defeat Covid-19 through positive thinking, but also the ability to travel back in time.
“No one will die of coronavirus in our country. I publicly declare this,” Mr Lukashenko said on Monday. His health ministry had already confirmed 29 deaths from the virus.
The 65-year-old Mr Lukashenko, who has ruled the former Soviet state for 26 years, has described the global pandemic as a “psychosis” and has refused to impose social distancing measures on his 9.5m people.

Belarusians should instead play ice hockey, drive tractors, use the sauna, drink vodka and pet baby goats to protect themselves from the virus, Mr Lukashenko has claimed. “If a person stays positive, they will be healthy,” he said.

As long as they are negative to Covid-19, he has a point.

 

[Oldyella]

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Absolute fecking shit show.

Disgraceful.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

Disgraceful.

Now now. Let's not politicise this.

 

[Heardy]

Now now. Let's not politicise this.

?? it is nothing short of disgraceful!

 

[Wumminator]

?? it is nothing short of disgraceful!

You might think that. I agree. I blame labour entirely for this mess

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I thought that we get immunity for human coronaviruses, at least for a few months. And for the novel ones, for MERS the antibodies ceased to exist after a year, while for SARS, it was around 3 years. So why should this have zero immunity?

Don’t think that’s true at all. Almost certain I read that neither of those viruses generated an antibody response that lasted more than 2 or 3 months.

EDIT: quick google reveals I’m probably wrong

 

[Compton22]

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Desperation or confidence?

 

[groovyalbert]

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Desperation or confidence?

Three bottles, one vaccine, two containing the virus. You're choice is to select one. The new gameshow from Sky.

 

[Revan]

Don’t think that’s true at all. Almost certain I read that neither of those viruses generated an antibody response that lasted more than 2 or 3 months.

EDIT: quick google reveals I’m probably wrong

I was referring to this paper: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/ for SARS, there was some other paper I checked some days ago for MERS.

Unfortunately, it is outside of my field, so no idea how respectable is the venue the paper has been published.

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

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Absolute fecking shit show.

Pound for pound, worst country in Europe? Honest question. I have a mate who is pretty right-wing in some views and his view of the UK is very much 'we are great and we need to start proving to the world how great we are again'. I tell him that if he bothered to venture outside of the UK, he'd see that nobody actually sees Britain as remotely great, nowadays. A fallen giant, and a shitshow. Are we going to be fully exposed at the end of this, for what we seem to be?


Which leads me to the below......

Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus
The president of Belarus not only claims to be able to defeat Covid-19 through positive thinking, but also the ability to travel back in time.
“No one will die of coronavirus in our country. I publicly declare this,” Mr Lukashenko said on Monday. His health ministry had already confirmed 29 deaths from the virus.
The 65-year-old Mr Lukashenko, who has ruled the former Soviet state for 26 years, has described the global pandemic as a “psychosis” and has refused to impose social distancing measures on his 9.5m people.

Belarusians should instead play ice hockey, drive tractors, use the sauna, drink vodka and pet baby goats to protect themselves from the virus, Mr Lukashenko has claimed. “If a person stays positive, they will be healthy,” he said.

Belarus are blatantly worse, but nobody has any expectations or standards for Belarus. Hence my 'pound for pound' comment. Belarus seems a pretty cool country, one which I'd like to visit one day, but it also seems very backward in many ways and I think most of Europe recognises that so has no expectations of them to act like anything else.

 

[Balljy]

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Desperation or confidence?

Considering the cost is probably minor compared to the alternative of lock down for the foreseeable future, it would probably be a good investment for governments to cover the costs of 3 or 4 potential vaccines in this way and take the risk of starting production early. If one works out they would be better off than by not doing it and waiting 6 months when trials are complete.

 

[Revan]

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Desperation or confidence?

Neither. You start mass-producing different vaccines, hope that one of them works, and if so, then start vaccinating the population. It is also what Bill Gates is doing, he is spending over 100 million dollars to make factories of a dozen or so vaccines, despite that he knows only 2-3 of them might be needed in the end. It is essentially taking a financial hit but buying time.