SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

11101

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Problem is that the UK government are treating daily updates and the removal of parliamentary debate as an opportunity to split out PR and spin on a daily basis. Glossing over the multitude of errors they are making with very little checks or balances. People are bound to get frustrated.

Promising 100,000 tests per day but only delivering 15,000 per day is political.

Not having the correct PPE for healthcare workers despite assuring parliament in January that we are fully prepared (Hancock) is also political.

Issuing badges for care workers when they dont have correct PPE is pointless.

I could go on but the UK's inept response to this virus is obviously going to draw political criticism.

I have family who are critical care nurses, working 6 x 12 hour shifts then on their days off they are making homemade protective hats because there is not enough protection provided!
All of that can be said of almost all other countries though. I live between Italy and Switzerland currently, pretty much all of what you say above is true here. France can't get tests sorted out, Spain we know is in a mess, even Japan is now running into trouble, and the less said about the US the better. You are talking about some of the most developed nations in the world there. The way people talk in this thread you would think the UK is a total disaster and the virus is just a blip to everybody else. The reality is the UK is handling it about as well as everybody else - the virus took the whole world by surprise.


This has been picked apart by other posters. But I would also like to add:

This doesn't take into account the reduction in social care spending since 2011 which in turn puts more people and pressures onto the NHS. Combine this reduction in social care spending with the ageing population and the massive increased need for social care and it is gross negligence.

There was also the reduced junior doctor contracts which in turn reduces the number of junior doctors and trainees.

There was also the removed bursaries and enforced tuition fees for student nurses. Which again reduced the intake of new nurses. They have now had to reverse this policy. But we are suffering from a 4 year gap in new nurses!
None of that is because of the budget though, it's because the management keep wasting the money they do get on overpriced agency nurses, ridiculous procurement processes and ill-advised projects. That's been the point all along. The money is there but we are terrible at spending it.

Compared to all of our peer countries the government spends roughly similar, that's really not debatable (especially if you forget private add ons and co pays, which the UK has very little of). We don't stand out for overspending or underspending in any way. Again, like above, the whole point I am making is that if you listened to this thread you'd think the UK was being forced to work on a shoestring, and it's just not true.

Even if we did increase the budget, above 2500 spend per capita (we are around 3,000) there is little evidence that increases have any effect on health outcomes. 2 of the 4 'healthiest' countries spend less than us, and 2 of the 4 top spenders have worse health outcomes than us. If anything, looking at those figures it might suggest a reversal over a certain point as bloat sets in.


edit: anyway, this is all too much politics now. This will be my last post on it.
 

Adisa

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So judging by that they wanted to go the way Sweden has but caved in to peer pressure
It was obvious from the beginning. The lockdown was a political decision.
The government would never have survived the political liability if we went the way of herd immunity and had many times more deaths.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Yeah, I do think we will see some restrictions lifted after these next two weeks.

Wonder will the guidance on face masks change, we appear to be the only country not recommending you wear them.
I think they’re still shit scared about running out of PPE for frontline staff. Especially now they’re trying to fix the care home crisis. It does seem like a no brainer, though. So long as people go with homemade masks (although there’s a risk they won’t)
 

Pogue Mahone

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I just read that 50 percent of Swedish households are 1 person homes. Is that right? The fact this isnt stamped out because of it confuses me. Plus they have a low density rate.
Their numbers v rest of the world just lost all meaning to me.
I heard that stat about the one person households too. Amazing. Those demographics are presumably why they took the approach they did. Which does seem to be working out ok for them. So far. Doesn’t sound as though any other country could follow that model.
 

massi83

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First google result from statista.com says 38% (amounting to 20% of population living alone). For UK 28%, so definitely a meaningful difference but less than many think, I assume.

Also google mobility report for Sweden shows they are doing a lot of social-distancing. Transit is down 40% for example. But if I could decide for Finland, I would follow Sweden and Denmark and open the schools.
I heard that stat about the one person households too. Amazing. Those demographics are presumably why they took the approach they did. Which does seem to be working out ok for them. So far. Doesn’t sound as though any other country could follow that model.
Doesn't seem to be true though.
 

sullydnl

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Underlines the good news about the peak having been flattened in Ireland.
 

Smores

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About to kick off big time I think - nurses refusing to do things with managers then asking and indeed training junior doctors to do their duties. Royal College of Nursing have told their nurses to refuse if unsafe PPE, ditto BMA for the doctors although BMA's statements and saying they'll fight for us is only for refusing to perform "high risk services"

RCN incidentally have said that they will help with legal assistance should nurses face corporate manslaughter charges for refusing to treat patients. BMA have not said anything about providing doctors with the same.

Such a shitshow, its a damn miracle I haven't fallen sick yet treating the patients I have, while constantly battling management as they challenge us as well when we source our own PPE as well, but even that's been difficult. Most of the PPE I've sourced for myself and my colleagues has been visors, masks, coveralls are banned in my hospital unless provided by them (although some GPs are sourcing and using their own in community) but when it comes to gowns haven't been able to find anything. Without gowns healthcare workers will die, literally haven't been able to sleep properly with the stress of it all. Sickening how the government are getting away with this.
Sorry to hear that, the fact you're still functioning at all is a credit to you though!

I really don't think I'd be able to cope in the situations you've described and i really don't get the lack of anger by the public at asking our NHS staff to put their lives at real risk.

Even putting someone in the position of having to weigh up whether they risk their life to treat someone is going to leave mental scars on many. I know my friend is struggling with it.
 

Smores

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Eesh.
It's disgusting but it's what you get when you put people in charge based off Brexit credentials.

Sorry too political for our Tory drones in here, how dare i suggest minsiters are accountable....all hail Boris!!
 

Damien

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In Florida: https://www.clickorlando.com/news/f...g-first-to-reopen-since-coronavirus-closures/

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Florida’s governor on Friday gave the green light for some beaches and parks to reopen if it can be done safely, and north Florida beaches became among the first to allow people to return since closures because of the coronavirus.

Mayor Lenny Curry said Duval County beaches were reopening Friday afternoon with restricted hours, and they can only be used for walking, biking, hiking, fishing, running, swimming, taking care of pets and surfing.

The beaches will be open from 6 to 11 a.m. and 5 to 8 p.m., Curry said in a video posted to social media.

Gatherings of 50 or more people are prohibited and people must still practice social distancing.

and here's Florida's governor:


and this is from a few days ago:

 

Vitro

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It wasn't about limiting deaths, it was about protecting the economy. Remember Dominic Cummings' (Boris's chief advisor) quote about "if some old people die then so be it"
Luckily the geniuses in charge realised you can’t protect the economy when you have hundreds of thousands of people dying and millions infected and spreading disease.
 

Pexbo

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It's absolutely horrifying what is going on in America right now. With the way they are handling it and the way the right wing media is conditioning the public to think it's some sort of hoax, it's really don't difficult to imagine the mortality rate is going to be into the millions. The worst of it is that the country is so partisan right now that, despite their being clearly one side trying to save lives and the other sacrificing lives to save the economy ("their own wealth" is more apt), the right wing media machine is so fecking powerful that no matter how bad it gets, blame and anger will always be directed in one direction. The worst thing about that is that anger and the appetite for blame is going to be absolutely fierce.

I think the civil unrest caused by the criminal handling of this crisis at federal level and the hatred and blame being dished out could end up costing as many lives as the virus itself.
 

Rajma

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It's absolutely horrifying what is going on in America right now. With the way they are handling it and the way the right wing media is conditioning the public to think it's some sort of hoax, it's really don't difficult to imagine the mortality rate is going to be into the millions. The worst of it is that the country is so partisan right now that, despite their being clearly one side trying to save lives and the other sacrificing lives to save the economy ("their own wealth" is more apt), the right wing media machine is so fecking powerful that no matter how bad it gets, blame and anger will always be directed in one direction. The worst thing about that is that anger and the appetite for blame is going to be absolutely fierce.

I think the civil unrest caused by the criminal handling of this crisis at federal level and the hatred and blame being dished out could end up costing as many lives as the virus itself.
Said this back when it's all just started kicking-out two months ago:

Ironically, I think along with third world countries US is one of the worst positioned countries to deal with something of this nature if it spreads widely down there.
I mean if some random Joe on the internet can predict something like this then you know that there's something fundamentally wrong with the country.
 

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I think Boris is a populist twat, but to call that video a smoking gun is a massive stretch at best. He specifically said he was referring to a panic, that pushes measures beyond rational levels. And in the end economic factors play an important role in the considerations of every country, it's always a trade-off between slowing down the spread and doing as little damage to the economy as possible. The most damaging thing I take away from the clip is that he would put such basic and naive logic into an official speech.

It's absolutely horrifying what is going on in America right now. With the way they are handling it and the way the right wing media is conditioning the public to think it's some sort of hoax, it's really don't difficult to imagine the mortality rate is going to be into the millions. The worst of it is that the country is so partisan right now that, despite their being clearly one side trying to save lives and the other sacrificing lives to save the economy ("their own wealth" is more apt), the right wing media machine is so fecking powerful that no matter how bad it gets, blame and anger will always be directed in one direction. The worst thing about that is that anger and the appetite for blame is going to be absolutely fierce.

I think the civil unrest caused by the criminal handling of this crisis at federal level and the hatred and blame being dished out could end up costing as many lives as the virus itself.

I think this has become the classic feedback loop of these right wing populists. The division and chaos they create end up working in their favour, by consolidating their base, locking in voters for life and even dictating their opposition's policy, because most people don't react to this by going into the other direction, but by turning to "safe" and bipartisan candidates that promise stability and an end to madness (e.g. Biden with all his flaws).
 
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Alabaster Codify7

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Maybe but their economy is very reliant on tourism. They'll want to get the Disney parks and resorts open ASAP and this is a step towards that.
Exactly and there are entire countries out there who are pretty much entirely reliant on their tourism trade to stay afloat. They will follow suit at the first reasonable opportunity.
 

Ekkie Thump

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Large* Increase in people getting tested in the UK today (think it's the first time past 20k tests *and 15k people). 5,526 positives (similar to yesterday but from more tests), 888 deaths.


* nope.
 
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Withnail

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My work officially told us WFH til the middle of May, so I'll be waiting til at least then even if the country opens up a bit.
It's great news.

I was getting a bit worried the daily deaths were continuing to rise even though they were telling us that the transmission rate was <=1.

Glad he's released the graph comparing the figures based on the actual date the deaths occured (red bar) to those we've seen to date (line) which were based on when they were notified of them.

It's gives a totally different picture.

 
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Darkhorsez

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Horrible news from canada. All but two caregivers left the nursing home for 130 elders, while the relatives were told to avoid visits due to Covid-19. Several dead and people left for themselves in excrements and without food for days.. :( How is this possible. I hope there will be severe punishment for those responsible.

https://www.barrons.com/news/horrors-revealed-at-virus-hit-canada-nursing-home-01587174605
Yeah it’s very disturbing and disgusting. whilst I am happy with government and provincial response to covid, this is one aspect that they got badly wrong. Very slow to investigate and take appropriate actions. It’s a horrible situation for the people effected and their families. So sad the pain this goddam virus has inflected in a relatively short period. Hopefully there will be lessons learned.
 

redshaw

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Large increase in UK testing today (think it's the first time past 20k tests and 15k people). 5,526 positives (similar to yesterday but from more tests), 888 deaths.

Yesterday was just shy of 14k people tested out of 21.3k so not a big increase.

Not good numbers again for the end of the 4th week of lockdown.
 

Ekkie Thump

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Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. Deaths in England remained flat today with 738 being reported (-2). This again lends weak support to the idea that we might've seen peak deaths on 8th April. More concerning is the sudden surge in new cases to 5,600 (+1k from yesterday). This is the highest single day total since April 5th. I wonder if Easter shenanigans might've had something to do with it.

Orange is a 5 day trailing average (last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes):
Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. Reported deaths grew by 46 to 784. Certainly seems like we've at least reached a plateau.

Orange is a 5 day trailing average, hopefully it remains above the daily death line.
Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:
 

Ekkie Thump

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Yesterday was just shy of 14k people tested out of 21.3k so not a big increase.

Not good numbers again for the end of the 4th week of lockdown.
Yeah - I realised my mistake and went back and edited.
 

redshaw

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468​
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827​
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578​
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1,016​
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759​
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1,266​
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1,019​
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1,441​
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1,228​
Mar 15th​
1,809​
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1,408​
Mar 16th​
2,158​
Mar 31st​
1,789​
Mar 17th​
2,503​
Apr 1st​
2,352​
Mar 18th​
2,978​
Apr 2nd​
2,921​
Mar 19th​
3,405​
Apr 3rd​
3,605​
Mar 20th​
4,032​
Apr 4th​
4,313​
Mar 21st​
4,825​
Apr 5th​
4,934​
Mar 22nd​
5,475​
Apr 6th​
5,373​
Mar 23rd​
6,077​
Apr 7th​
6,159​
Mar 24th​
6,820​
Apr 8th​
7,097​
Mar 25th​
7,503​
Apr 9th​
7,978​
Mar 26th​
8,215​
Apr 10th​
8,958​
Mar 27th​
9,134​
Apr 11th​
9,875​
Mar 28th​
10,023​
Apr 12th​
10,612​
Mar 29th​
10,779​
Apr 13th​
11,329​
Mar 30th​
11,591​
Apr 14th​
12,107​
Mar 31st​
12,428​
Apr 15th​
12,868​
Apr 1st​
13,155​
Apr 16th​
13,729​
Apr 2nd​
13,915​
Apr 17th​
14,576​
Apr 3rd​
14,681​
Apr 18th​
15,464​
Apr 4th​
15,362​
Apr 19th​
Apr 5th​
15,887​
Apr 20th​
Apr 6th​
16,523​
Apr 21st​
Apr 7th​
17,127​
Apr 8th​
17,669​
Apr 9th​
18,279​
Officially unofficially broke past Italy without much fuss and a two week heads up.
 

Ramshock

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578​
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1,016​
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759​
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1,019​
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1,228​
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1,809​
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1,408​
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2,158​
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1,789​
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2,503​
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2,352​
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2,978​
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2,921​
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3,405​
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3,605​
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4,032​
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4,313​
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4,825​
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4,934​
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5,475​
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5,373​
Mar 23rd​
6,077​
Apr 7th​
6,159​
Mar 24th​
6,820​
Apr 8th​
7,097​
Mar 25th​
7,503​
Apr 9th​
7,978​
Mar 26th​
8,215​
Apr 10th​
8,958​
Mar 27th​
9,134​
Apr 11th​
9,875​
Mar 28th​
10,023​
Apr 12th​
10,612​
Mar 29th​
10,779​
Apr 13th​
11,329​
Mar 30th​
11,591​
Apr 14th​
12,107​
Mar 31st​
12,428​
Apr 15th​
12,868​
Apr 1st​
13,155​
Apr 16th​
13,729​
Apr 2nd​
13,915​
Apr 17th​
14,576​
Apr 3rd​
14,681​
Apr 18th​
15,464​
Apr 4th​
15,362​
Apr 19th​
Apr 5th​
15,887​
Apr 20th​
Apr 6th​
16,523​
Apr 21st​
Apr 7th​
17,127​
Apr 8th​
17,669​
Apr 9th​
18,279​
Officially unofficially broke past Italy without much fuss and a two week heads up.
Two worst leaders Trump/Johnson
 

Shakesy

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759​
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1,019​
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1,441​
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1,228​
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1,809​
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1,408​
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2,158​
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1,789​
Mar 17th​
2,503​
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2,352​
Mar 18th​
2,978​
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2,921​
Mar 19th​
3,405​
Apr 3rd​
3,605​
Mar 20th​
4,032​
Apr 4th​
4,313​
Mar 21st​
4,825​
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4,934​
Mar 22nd​
5,475​
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5,373​
Mar 23rd​
6,077​
Apr 7th​
6,159​
Mar 24th​
6,820​
Apr 8th​
7,097​
Mar 25th​
7,503​
Apr 9th​
7,978​
Mar 26th​
8,215​
Apr 10th​
8,958​
Mar 27th​
9,134​
Apr 11th​
9,875​
Mar 28th​
10,023​
Apr 12th​
10,612​
Mar 29th​
10,779​
Apr 13th​
11,329​
Mar 30th​
11,591​
Apr 14th​
12,107​
Mar 31st​
12,428​
Apr 15th​
12,868​
Apr 1st​
13,155​
Apr 16th​
13,729​
Apr 2nd​
13,915​
Apr 17th​
14,576​
Apr 3rd​
14,681​
Apr 18th​
15,464​
Apr 4th​
15,362​
Apr 19th​
Apr 5th​
15,887​
Apr 20th​
Apr 6th​
16,523​
Apr 21st​
Apr 7th​
17,127​
Apr 8th​
17,669​
Apr 9th​
18,279​
Officially unofficially broke past Italy without much fuss and a two week heads up.
Wow. Came from behind there.
 

redshaw

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From BBC

Fears 7,500 residents have died in UK care homes

"The number of coronavirus victims in Britain's care homes could be as high as 7,500, five times more than the official estimate, the sector's main charity has warned.

"Without testing, it is very difficult to give an absolute figure," Martin Green, chief executive of Care England, told The Daily Telegraph.

"However, if we look at some of the death rates since April 1 and compare them with previous years' rates, we estimate a figure of about 7,500 people may have died as a result of Covid-19."

The figure is more than five times higher than the estimate of 1,400 suggested by the government earlier this week.

Britain's official coronavirus toll currently stands at 14,576, although that only includes deaths recorded in hospitals.£


Looks like the tentative theory of most care home people ending up in the hospital rather than dying at the care home with low figures even up until late March is out the window with the increase in April. France have 7200 care home deaths so far and Barcelona I read recently have 3500 care home deaths to release.
 

Simbo

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Feb 27th​
17​
Mar 13th​
11​
Feb 28th​
21​
Mar 14th​
21​
Feb 29th​
29​
Mar 15th​
35​
Mar 1st​
41​
Mar 16th​
55​
Mar 2nd​
52​
Mar 17th​
71​
Mar 3rd​
79​
Mar 18th​
104​
Mar 4th​
107​
Mar 19th​
144​
Mar 5th​
148​
Mar 20th​
177​
Mar 6th​
197​
Mar 21st​
233​
Mar 7th​
233​
Mar 22nd​
281​
Mar 8th​
366​
Mar 23rd​
335​
Mar 9th​
463​
Mar 24th​
422​
Mar 10th​
631​
Mar 25th​
468​
Mar 11th​
827​
Mar 26th​
578​
Mar 12th​
1,016​
Mar 27th​
759​
Mar 13th​
1,266​
Mar 28th​
1,019​
Mar 14th​
1,441​
Mar 29th​
1,228​
Mar 15th​
1,809​
Mar 30th​
1,408​
Mar 16th​
2,158​
Mar 31st​
1,789​
Mar 17th​
2,503​
Apr 1st​
2,352​
Mar 18th​
2,978​
Apr 2nd​
2,921​
Mar 19th​
3,405​
Apr 3rd​
3,605​
Mar 20th​
4,032​
Apr 4th​
4,313​
Mar 21st​
4,825​
Apr 5th​
4,934​
Mar 22nd​
5,475​
Apr 6th​
5,373​
Mar 23rd​
6,077​
Apr 7th​
6,159​
Mar 24th​
6,820​
Apr 8th​
7,097​
Mar 25th​
7,503​
Apr 9th​
7,978​
Mar 26th​
8,215​
Apr 10th​
8,958​
Mar 27th​
9,134​
Apr 11th​
9,875​
Mar 28th​
10,023​
Apr 12th​
10,612​
Mar 29th​
10,779​
Apr 13th​
11,329​
Mar 30th​
11,591​
Apr 14th​
12,107​
Mar 31st​
12,428​
Apr 15th​
12,868​
Apr 1st​
13,155​
Apr 16th​
13,729​
Apr 2nd​
13,915​
Apr 17th​
14,576​
Apr 3rd​
14,681​
Apr 18th​
15,464​
Apr 4th​
15,362​
Apr 19th​
Apr 5th​
15,887​
Apr 20th​
Apr 6th​
16,523​
Apr 21st​
Apr 7th​
17,127​
Apr 8th​
17,669​
Apr 9th​
18,279​
Officially unofficially broke past Italy without much fuss and a two week heads up.
Are we reporting by the same rule-set Italy are?
 

Ludens the Red

Full Member
Joined
Jul 27, 2009
Messages
17,430
Location
London
All of that can be said of almost all other countries though. I live between Italy and Switzerland currently, pretty much all of what you say above is true here. France can't get tests sorted out, Spain we know is in a mess, even Japan is now running into trouble, and the less said about the US the better. You are talking about some of the most developed nations in the world there. The way people talk in this thread you would think the UK is a total disaster and the virus is just a blip to everybody else. The reality is the UK is handling it about as well as everybody else - the virus took the whole world by surprise.




None of that is because of the budget though, it's because the management keep wasting the money they do get on overpriced agency nurses, ridiculous procurement processes and ill-advised projects. That's been the point all along. The money is there but we are terrible at spending it.

Compared to all of our peer countries the government spends roughly similar, that's really not debatable (especially if you forget private add ons and co pays, which the UK has very little of). We don't stand out for overspending or underspending in any way. Again, like above, the whole point I am making is that if you listened to this thread you'd think the UK was being forced to work on a shoestring, and it's just not true.

Even if we did increase the budget, above 2500 spend per capita (we are around 3,000) there is little evidence that increases have any effect on health outcomes. 2 of the 4 'healthiest' countries spend less than us, and 2 of the 4 top spenders have worse health outcomes than us. If anything, looking at those figures it might suggest a reversal over a certain point as bloat sets in.


edit: anyway, this is all too much politics now. This will be my last post on it.
I know you said this was your last post on it. And I agree the political debate is too much. And I say this NOT as a tribalist labour voter who can’t see the forest for the trees.
But I think with the spending, whilst it looks fine from a comparison stand point you have to factor in a simple point.
Plain and simply put we need a bigger budget because we’re simply worse at being healthy than everyone else in our league.
When you factor in obesity, alcohol and drug abuse (this also accounts for fund drainage) we’re constantly amongst the worse in Europe. We also appear to be worse at spending money than everyone else.
We’re basically the Man United of the Health service world.
 

dwd

Saturday Night Spies
Joined
Jan 16, 2012
Messages
16,293
Location
Under soil heating.
From BBC

Fears 7,500 residents have died in UK care homes

"The number of coronavirus victims in Britain's care homes could be as high as 7,500, five times more than the official estimate, the sector's main charity has warned.

"Without testing, it is very difficult to give an absolute figure," Martin Green, chief executive of Care England, told The Daily Telegraph.

"However, if we look at some of the death rates since April 1 and compare them with previous years' rates, we estimate a figure of about 7,500 people may have died as a result of Covid-19."

The figure is more than five times higher than the estimate of 1,400 suggested by the government earlier this week.

Britain's official coronavirus toll currently stands at 14,576, although that only includes deaths recorded in hospitals.£


Looks like the tentative theory of most care home people ending up in the hospital rather than dying at the care home with low figures even up until late March is out the window with the increase in April. France have 7200 care home deaths so far and Barcelona I read recently have 3500 care home deaths to release.
The care home of my father in law have told us that if any resident gets it they won't be taken to hospital as the hospital will just send them straight back. I think this is the case for all care homes across the country as well.
 

golden_blunder

Site admin. Manchester United fan
Staff
Joined
Jun 1, 2000
Messages
119,446
Location
Dublin, Ireland