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SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-coronavirus-ireland-podcast/id1503255048?i=1000475925626
This is a VERY sobering listen. Anyone who thinks Ireland is being too cautious coming out of lockdown should check it out.
@Massive Spanner
+ anyone else who feels the same way
I don’t know this guy at all but he is definitely well qualified to discuss a viral epidemic. A zillion times more qualified than the Michael Leary and Dr Ciara Kelly’s of this world anyway!
This is a VERY sobering listen. Anyone who thinks Ireland is being too cautious coming out of lockdown should check it out.
@Massive Spanner
+ anyone else who feels the same way
I don’t know this guy at all but he is definitely well qualified to discuss a viral epidemic. A zillion times more qualified than the Michael Leary and Dr Ciara Kelly’s of this world anyway!
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I'll have a listen during work tomorrow whilst I curl my ever growing luscious locks.
It’s been the same for every stage of the UK covid19 experience. While most of the rest of the world has tried to enforce measures with strict control, UK pretends its citizens are so special they need softly touchy freedoms to implement required interventions.
See how ‘track and trace’ was implemented across Asia, with mandatory smartphone tracking and huge fines and public condemnation if not adhered to. We are in privileged position to see how covid19 interventions are managed in other countries and yet UK thinks it’s unique and does things in its own way.
Of course Boris’s desire to enforce stricter controls on protecting Cummings than the entire nation from Covid19 will now make ‘track and trace’ and other covid19 measures impossible to implement with the severity that require.
We have suffered worst in the world on covid19 because of the incompetence and corruption of the BJ Government. It’s a complete shitshow. We are a country in huge crisis which will lead to even bigger catastrophes.
I feel like UK is experiencing what USA went through in first months of Trump Government. We never thought it would happen here but here it is. In fact it’s worse because at least Trump has the balls to own his shit, sacked Bannon and will face his critics for as long as they want to bash him. UK is in an even more precarious position.
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2000 new cases and 400 dead today. That more than many countries have had at peak despite having stricter lockdown
And our numbers have been going down because we’ve been in strict lockdown. How can you not get this?
What happens when people go back to business as usual behaviour in next few weeks?
Not one country in Europe has had a spike after relaxing restrictions (some done so for over a month now), not a single one, not even Italy.
Do you think it’s close to manageable? So when will country get back to full normality? when will they open up gyms and hairdressers (2 services I desperately require!)
You may want to borrow some Prozac first.
He’s right too. I’ve snapped right out of my non evidence-based daydreams about the virus magically losing all its power after listening to the podcast I linked to higher up.
I’m also moving away from the “herd immunity” crap to thinking the best strategy, by far, is total eradication. All other scenarios are a massive burden for society, for my family and yes, for the economy over the next several years.
If we could extend and deepen the lockdown for another few months we could get rid of the virus completely. Then have life back to exactly the way it was before (except for the way we manage people coming in/out of the country) by autumn. Wouldn’t that be a great goal to shoot for?
Social distancing is a huge pain in the arse for everyone. Without eradication it’s here to stay, possibly forever. With eradication of the virus we can do away with it completely. No-brainer, right?
Italian figures have gone the wrong way today. 585 new cases (yesterday 397) and 117 deaths (78 yesterday).
Lombardy is still the main problem area, with 384 of the new cases today and 58 of the deaths. My region (Marche) had no deaths today.
Lombardy is still the main problem area, with 384 of the new cases today and 58 of the deaths. My region (Marche) had no deaths today.
How do we manage eradication whilst still sending doctors into work, plus all other essential workers being exposed to the virus? Im not sure a few months would be enough?
Edit: not to mention air travel from other parts of the world that are not aiming for the same strategy.
How full of a re-opening though? Some in the States, some of whom have been quite cavalier about it, have seen increases. Though the numbers here are incredibly inconsistent making it perilous to draw conclusions.
Apparently in Ireland we’ve almost completely eradicated spread in the community, other than within households. HCWs and essential workers wear a shit-load of PPE. Everyone else stops interacting with anyone outside their household and wears masks as soon as they step outside their house. I’d say it’s possible to eradicate the virus if we keep that up for another couple of months. But we won’t know if we don’t try!
I just posted a page or two ago about how efficient of a transmission point singing in churches is due to how this spreads in clusters...
I guess in the US and Brazil you’ll get some giant petri dishes for experiments in herd immunity.
What about the rest of the world though?
Kudos to Ireland btw.
Man when they reopen the gyms I think I'll cry
There's only so much you can do at home with dumbbells sadlyYeah, I know. That’s the elephant in the room. Feck it, I’m all over the place about this. Just a week ago I was saying New Zealand coming close to eradicating the virus was just creating long term problems. Now I’m saying Ireland should be shooting for total eradication. The whole thing is a complete nightmare. It’s so hard to see an end any time soon. At least eradication is a tangible goal, that can be achieved quite quickly. Any other scenario is going to be agonisingly drawn out.
I've been following the Italian situation and I've noticed that the trend downward doesn't happen on a daily basis but rather on a weekly basis. Only 2 were below 600 cases last week whereas this week everyday has been fewer than 600. I'm fairly confident this week will have fewer new cases in total than last week and that seems to be the trend since the peak. Moreover, the data can be skewed as they add in cases from different days from what I've read.
What will be interesting is whether cases pick up again on Monday as that will be 2 weeks after the extended re-opening of businesses.
You're right about looking at what happens from next Monday. We were originally expecting to be able to travel freely between regions from June 3rd, but there have been mutterings from politicians that this might not happen now.
It would be daft to make that possible whilst one or two regions still have such a serious problem.
SUCK ME
With the way things are reported you really have to look at a seven day rolling average. That's what I'm doing with the Danish cases.
ffs
In lieu of sucking you I'll gladly donate that to your favorite charity
Still surreal.
What exactly do you think the reason is out of interest? I've yet to hear any credible evidence to suggest because the numbers have come down they won't go up again so I'm intrigued.
It's possible but highly hopefully it's just died out.
I would kill for some dumbbells. I have resorted to some shitty resistance bands from websites of dubious reputeMan when they reopen the gyms I think I'll cry
Cockrings?
Thumbs up from the hindsight machine. 5.6m cases, 350,000 dead.
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Really? Have you told anyone? If only they knew we could stop all this pesky economic damage and not bother developing a costly vaccine.
I don't think it's died out but i equally don't think relaxing restrictions gradually equals walking straight into a second wave, early evidence seems to agree.
We will be almost completely out of lockdown on the 6th of June. From next Friday we will no longer have to wear face masks outside (only in shops), starting next Friday they will reopen all cinemas and theatres at half capacity and will lift any restrictions on the number of people in bars and restaurants, gyms and swimming pools will be open and all hotels will operate normally (now they have to close restaurants and any leisure areas). Live concerts and events can take place with maximum 150 in attendance.
Whos we?
Poland.
I fear it may be a bit premature but on the other hand I’d say about 60% or more people here don’t really believe the virus exists (with half of them blaming 5G and Bill Gates) so keeping restrictions was not going to work. If we get second wave we won’t be able to put any restrictions through though so fingers crossed it really dies out now...
We are very close in Australia but the odd case we can't trace keeps popping up. Only 6 new cases yesterday but we had 14 the day before due to quite a few cases arraign on a transport shop from overseas in WA - all isolated on the ship or transferred to medical quarantine. And we had a handful of cases that became symptomatic while people were in quarantine after arriving by air from Doha last week. I can't believe the UK is only just now thinking about quarantine.
the list of exemptions in the U.K. for when the quarantine is introduced is ridiculous anyway.
as a cop I can waltz back into the U.K, go back to work the next day, and spend the day merrily going onto peoples houses.
We really have had the most half assed versions of measures other countries have taken.
When did you start opening up and what have your stats been like since?
In for a penny, in for a pound i say.
Unfortunately around here the horse has bolted long ago
He’s just dying for his pint in a pub