In general I don't really disagree with that line of thinking, but I would say that reality is more nuanced than that. E.g. barely making top 4 vs comfortably finishing second vs playing a season where you get close and might have won it with a bit of luck makes a difference in how your work is perceived and how attractive you are to potential signings and the public (sponsors).
Well that is the big question, isn't it?
This summer it's Corona pushing down the price.
Next summer it will be his contract pushing down the price, but Corona could be a thing of the past and (the "risk" for hesitatant buyers) of a good Euros could also up the price a lot.
I don't think it's that simple to predict how the offers will change between now and next year and there are also soft factors to consider: e.g. losses on this tranfer can turn into gains on the next if it makes people think you won't budge on your demands.
I agree with the principles.
It is the question, right now we are assuming that his price will drop next summer. This could go two ways.
1. He has another good season, BVB do well in the CL and he has a brilliant Euros or.
2. BVB have a bad season, he gets injured misses a few months and is sub at the Euros.
I feel right now, even with Covid his transfer value is at the highest. No one knows what happens next season, so risk that or cash in.
For United, pay the money or risk losing the player completely. We cannot go another season without a RW. If we go spend £60m on a RW, we cannot go and strengthen that position again when there are holes in the CDM, CB, CAM role.
With BVB not budging, it works if people thnk you wont budge however; everyone knows you don't budge, everyone knows you got £100m for Sancho, teams will do the same back to them.
We saw an example of United do that to Inter. 2 seasons ago, they didnt budge £5m on Perisic and United literally did the same with Lukaku.